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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #32,101
  • Mar 13, 2012 9:06pm Mar 13, 2012 9:06pm
Quoting fti
: ) tubguy
no not so much embarassed.

Is just an err , not becoming from a pro.
If i was at the bank and someone did that err.
My response would be to issue walking certificate.
Thats why i need check my mindset very carefully now, being my own funds manager.
not functioning as a pro is making me careless.
This the carelessness that makes rogue traders, gambling on bets.

the task of a pro trader is to make pips from the markets daily and consistently.
if need bet and gamble, only with profits (foreign cap) already booked, never...

I believe I understand sir. Glad you were able to recover the 80%.

I just recently realized that I understand the concept but need to work on the execution. My scorpion is patience. I have a tendency to skew in to fast in an attempt to rescue a small position way to early. Build the snowball to quickly and lose control. Gives me the feeling of a ship at sea with no sail or motor. All you can do is hope or kill it for a loss.

Working on that very vigorously now that I understand what the problem is. Trading only pennies as suggested to me by MaMood.

Maybe I need myself one of those compliance managers you speak of? Haven't had one in a bit over 12 years and I don't allow many to apply.

Great reply, I enjoyed reading it. Always some wisdom in those longer replies.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #32,102
  • Edited 9:35pm Mar 13, 2012 9:21pm | Edited 9:35pm
[quote=zoomzoom;5472347]
Quoting fti
did you manage escape with the loot?
these fx syndicates are rackless.
........................

Hi Chief,

I thought I lost my marbles and going bald due unable to read current terrain . So when you gave a hint, I jumped on it. Due to the uncertainty of the market, I reduce my lot sizes and shorten the scope window. Took some pips. Found my marbles again. Thanks chief.

zz


@ imjscn

@ zoomzoom
good , good, slow and steady.

I not hands holding, still in stealth mode.
just to say , the terrain remains same.
bearish overtone in the euros baring any upcoming news.
There is usd trade current accounts reports tonight and Heli speaks 1:30 mins after the figures.
look out for any signs of QE3 in his statements.

technically, test zones for euro are at 1.3120
which has sellers interest.
1.3100 options barrier is no longer there but will be zone of interest if tested.
so test zone will extend from 1.3100 to 20
norm volatility range is expected 1.3050 to 1.3120.
crack of 1.3050 could send her fast to test 1.2950/60.
1.3000 is handle phycological support, but should mean little due to the bearish overtone.
Look out for reports if panda or other vested interested may present some support there.
Is gonna be tricky , so size appropriately and scot carefully.
at least have 30% of risk cap for contingencies.

back to cave.

regards
  • #32,103
  • Edited 9:58pm Mar 13, 2012 9:27pm | Edited 9:58pm
Quoting tubguy
I believe I understand sir. Glad you were able to recover the 80%.

I just recently realized that I understand the concept but need to work on the execution. My scorpion is patience. I have a tendency to skew in to fast in an attempt to rescue a small position way to early. Build the snowball to quickly and lose control. Gives me the feeling of a ship at sea with no sail or motor. All you can do is hope or kill it for a loss.

Working on that very vigorously now that I understand what the problem is. Trading only pennies as suggested to me by...
mike.

The eager beaver MO of skewing in "in a hurry" is not totally unacceptable.
But watch that that strategy be used only in distribution terrain where ranges will be tight.
In volatile enviroments, add about 30 to 50 pips between the skew, depending on how forcefully you skew.
key is in distribution skewing will be more clustered in prices, and when volatilioty is detected to increase, spread out the troops. There's lots more strategies if cap is strong. But basically the fundementals bias and technical read should give you a ball park feel of what type of day it is and how you should strategise.

Some days you will get it wrong whatever you do.
So always have a contingency contigent for rescues , otherwise just bail out.
Some days nothing can go wrong, whatever you do.

regards
  • #32,104
  • Mar 13, 2012 10:16pm Mar 13, 2012 10:16pm
Quoting fti
mike.

The eager beaver MO of skewing in "in a hurry" is not totally unacceptable.
But watch that that strategy be used only in distribution terrain where ranges will be tight.
In volatile enviroments, add about 30 to 40 pips between the skew, depending on how forcefully you skew.
key is in distribution skewing will be more clustered in prices, and when volatilioty is detected to increase, spread out the troops. There's lots more strategies if cap is strong. But basically the fundemental bias and technical read should give you a ball...
Yes sir. I will take note.

I am a risk taker by nature. I was a cowboy for about 12 years. Trained horses, gathered cattle, & team roped competitively.
It has been very tough for me to change that nature for trading. When I first realized that what goes up will come down, I thought I was gonna burn up the trading. I started waiting for the first leg out of distribution and then skewing in against it because I "knew" it would retrace. Problem turned out to be, I didn't know when or how much. So I would skew in pretty hard and fast
trying to rescue on just a few pips. Seems those last few I needed to break even almost never came. Then I would hold on waiting for it to come back. It never did, so I took a big hit each time.

Paid a pretty penny to the market for that lesson. (did I mention I'm hard headed too). I feel sure that I won't repeat that scenario again. Heck, I can't.
My dad is 72 and gonna retire at the end of the month. My mother (rest her soul) spent most every dime he made,which was alot. He was unable to put away enough to live comfortable on. I must get this right so I can help him more. I am unable to work normal hours like most people because I have my 2 teen sons to tend to 24-7. My ex has 3 other girls and does nothing for the boys. So, I can get a call at any time and have to drop what I am doing.

Anyway, Dad thinks I'm half nuts for trading also. He says it's rigged and I will never win. I would sure like for him to see me succeed at this more than anything I have ever done. He has seen me make more than him twice now.
I don't want him to leave this earth thinking that I failed. More importantly,
I want him to live the rest of his life doing what he wants and being comfortable.

Sorry for spilling my guts here. Not normally my nature.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #32,105
  • Mar 14, 2012 12:53am Mar 14, 2012 12:53am
[quote=fti;5472920][quote=zoomzoom;5472347]



@ imjscn

@ zoomzoom
good , good, slow and steady.

I not hands holding, still in stealth mode.
just to say , the terrain remains same.
bearish overtone in the euros baring any upcoming news.
There is usd trade current accounts reports tonight and Heli speaks 1:30 mins after the figures.
look out for any signs of QE3 in his statements.
.......................

Thanks again Chief. I can see the terrain a lot clearer now. Like the 30% capital as contingency reserve. Helps to prevent overtrading too.

zz
  • #32,106
  • Mar 14, 2012 1:01am Mar 14, 2012 1:01am
Quoting tubguy
Yes sir. I will take note.

I am a risk taker by nature. I was a cowboy for about 12 years. Trained horses, gathered cattle, & team roped competitively.
..................

Good Trading
Mike
Hi Mike,

Thanks for sharing. . You're strong. You can do it.

zz
  • #32,107
  • Edited 4:29am Mar 14, 2012 3:47am | Edited 4:29am
Quoting tubguy
Yes sir. I will take note.

I am a risk taker by nature. I was a cowboy for about 12 years. Trained horses, gathered cattle, & team roped competitively.
It has been very tough for me to change that nature for trading. When I first realized that what goes up will come down, I thought I was gonna burn up the trading. I started waiting for the first leg out of distribution and then skewing in against it because I "knew" it would retrace. Problem turned out to be, I didn't know when or how much. So I would skew in pretty hard and fast
trying...
mike,
sorry replaying late.
I dozed away, not sure if i fainted or i dozed. but i rested.
These days , energy is not easy for me to muster.
yeeha, horses type cowboy, huh.

Is lovely isn't it, working with horses.
They trustworthy, no hidden agendas and powerful.

ok, i start with what your dad said.
In so many ways he's correct.
All markets are mostly rigged in some way or another.
At all times , participants, speculators, hedgers and regulators have objectives of the markets. So in their own ways they would influence the markets the way they want it. even the market making brokers they have a small hand in it, that they get see market's composite book and would shade you a couple of pips to make the bro for the day.
In that sense there is rigged ,similarly like the way you would round up and fence the horses.
Regulators uses the macro economic arsenals at their disposal. Market players uses their size and wits. But none have full monopoly over the course the market will take always. so all you seeing in price gyrations is the push pull factors of buying and selling at work.

Everytime you enter or exit the markets you pay a tax aka the brokerage and slippage to the scalping brokers who makes the markets accessable to you. So when you initiate any position you would have to start with a loss.

You attributes in ability train horses, would stand you good in your development of your trading skills. Because you have ability deal with reading intent. As you know horse are hard head bucks if they not happy . So in rounding them up you need read their intents and maneuver to entice them into herds and then scutter tthem into the direction you want them go.
Markets the same, made of all hard sturbborn head with minds of their own.
so you need learn how read them from a distance and strategise yur maneuvers to slowly position yourself strategically. When they start to run then you need run along side of them. never be running against the flow thats coming at you or you will be trampled on.
Your skills in ability to divide and strategically place your money in line with the possible flow is important, and as in all things, should not mobilise all into the flow except that it catches into the flow by its own naturally.
When the flow begins no one can tell where and when it will stop.
So what you need do is slowly exit them as the momentum of the herd begins to slow.
As a risk taker type personality, you would have the instinctive accrument to realise when a herd is on fully gallop or is just pacing. You just need learn to relate this to the price chart. When volatility is high and directional, its time to risk. Otherwise you need strategically pace them with mathematically divided pieces. The calculations must be done before your entry to markets , so at all time your risk vectors are within your birds eye view eyeballing at what stages of risk your book is in.

What i am try do, is to try get you see the market as a herd, your ability risk attack due to your basic nature stands you good that you will be able ride trends.

Your ability rescue trades need to develop from your experiences in the markets and different markets conforms to a different rhythm dance. So to be able use the rescues effectively you need feel into the rhythm of the herd. Important thing to remember is must always dance into the trend direction of the markets, and if you had divided book into nice pieces, should be able survive all retracements. But if rescuing trades against the trends then is dangerous misadventure.

As for rescueing into tendem with trend that reversed, thats something all trader have to grapple with. Important thing to keep in mind , is when that happens, then pull the plug and step away. Fight again another day.

I hope you can feel the picture i trying convey to you.

As for your other half is hard for me comment as i am not privy to the situations. But make it be know to her, that you have new wild as horses gfs now and that they put the food on the table for you. that sometimes you are having very exciting times, So you may not be so available.

regards

PS: If you have difficulty relating to price charts, draw an hourly average on your chart. Take that as the herd and try not to trade against the flow. It will impair you timing as its a lagger, which will make you slow to response. But for starters use that to train your eyes on directional herding. When you feel you have experience to flow the rhythm then remove it to allow your rhythmic sense dance the flow.

The other parts of the training is all on thread, but first get the flowing right. Don't think, just follow until you can sense the flow. Oh please do in demo until you feel you got it.
  • #32,108
  • Mar 14, 2012 4:37am Mar 14, 2012 4:37am
i liked the cowboy song you posted long ago.
would be nice hear it again.

Inserted Video



Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #32,109
  • Mar 14, 2012 5:30am Mar 14, 2012 5:30am
Inserted Video
  • #32,110
  • Mar 14, 2012 5:44am Mar 14, 2012 5:44am
Quoting fti
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uh2jczsn5A
thx chief.

Very beautiful music.

regards
  • #32,111
  • Mar 14, 2012 6:05am Mar 14, 2012 6:05am
Quoting N_Trader
thx chief.

Very beautiful music.

regards
is same song the jazzy grassland girl( maxin )sang. The original singer was dedema.
thanks should be for madepossible. He made it possible for you hear.maybe go youtube and thumbs him/her.


@all
China central bank eyes freer yuan, policy flexibility.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...siness+News%29

Good news, we may have a new emerging market trade the RMB soon.
Lets see how the liquidity develops.
Heard may make debut in London.

regards
  • #32,112
  • Mar 14, 2012 6:33am Mar 14, 2012 6:33am
Quoting tubguy

Problem turned out to be, I didn't know when or how much. So I would skew in pretty hard and fast
trying to rescue on just a few pips. Seems those last few I needed to break even almost never came. Then I would hold on waiting for it to come back. It never did, so I took a big hit each time.
Mike, refer to the "how much"-- maybe try set a max for your total skew size and stay within this amount for relatively a long period.
"within" means you can play smaller in normal trades, but never exceed the max when you become crazy.
After a while, by looking at your P/L, more or less you know market is doing nothing or doing a lot. Also, with familiar P/L numbers, your emotions are unlikely "frozen"(as N_trader described a while ago) in bad trades.
"hold on waiting for it coming back"-- No, I think it should be "hold on to see what to do next".
  • #32,113
  • Edited 7:19am Mar 14, 2012 6:47am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting fti
is same song the jazzy grassland girl( maxin )sang. The original singer was dedema.
thanks should be for madepossible. He made it possible for you hear.maybe go youtube and thumbs him/her.



regards
Thanks for reccomendation chief
Lots of soothing music for my trading sessions.

Inserted Video


Ok, hoping for some panda power soon
would be very exciting times ahead.

Inserted Video


Inserted Video

regards
  • #32,114
  • Mar 14, 2012 6:51am Mar 14, 2012 6:51am
Quoting tubguy
Yes sir. I will take note.

I am a risk taker by nature. I was a cowboy for about 12 years. Trained horses, gathered cattle, & team roped competitively.
It has been very tough for me to change that nature for trading. When I first realized that what goes up will come down, I thought I was gonna burn up the trading. I started waiting for the first leg out of distribution and then skewing in against it because I "knew" it would retrace. Problem turned out to be, I didn't know when or how much. So I would skew in pretty hard and fast
trying to...
Hi Mike,

I've always admired peeps who dare step forward to share their life stories. I feel like we are a family here

My instinct tells me that you're gonna make it.

Regards
  • #32,115
  • Mar 14, 2012 7:42am Mar 14, 2012 7:42am
Burnt out employee:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/op...achs.html?_r=1

our friend Euro wants to make us some pips, lets take it.
  • #32,116
  • Mar 14, 2012 8:20am Mar 14, 2012 8:20am
Quoting fti
mike,
sorry replaying late.
I dozed away, not sure if i fainted or i dozed. but i rested.
These days , energy is not easy for me to muster.
yeeha, horses type cowboy, huh.

Is lovely isn't it, working with horses.
They trustworthy, no hidden agendas and powerful.

ok, i start with what your dad said.
In so many ways he's correct.
All markets are mostly rigged in some way or another.
At all times , participants, speculators, hedgers and regulators have objectives of the markets. So in their own ways they would influence...

if it was a must read for newbies would be saved with lot of pain ...beautiful....

V
  • #32,117
  • Mar 14, 2012 8:53am Mar 14, 2012 8:53am
Quoting zoomzoom


Hi Mike,

Thanks for sharing. . You're strong. You can do it.

zz
Thanks for the encouragement zoomzoom. Failure is not an option.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #32,118
  • Edited 9:11am Mar 14, 2012 9:10am | Edited 9:11am
Quoting fti
mike,
sorry replaying late.
I dozed away, not sure if i fainted or i dozed. but i rested.
These days , energy is not easy for me to muster.
yeeha, horses type cowboy, huh.

Is lovely isn't it, working with horses.
They trustworthy, no hidden agendas and powerful.

ok, i start with what your dad said.
In so many ways he's correct.
All markets are mostly rigged in some way or another.
At all times , participants, speculators, hedgers and regulators have objectives of the markets. So in their own ways they would influence...
Interesting analogy sir. I had not thought of things in that manner.

I have placed a TMA envelope on my chart to help with seeing distribution and trend. So far it has been a big help. Had to tell myself to only trade in the direction of the slope and when no slope trade small only because a trend can start against me at any time.

Oddly enough, it was a trading bot that showed me that patience was an issue for me. It trades in the same manner as what is shown here (at least thats what I think). It has yet to lose in almost 7 weeks but has gotten into some hairy situations. I put it on a demo account to test it for a friend that was curious about it. I have been very surprised how well it has done. I promise I won't put it on a live account though. Just thought it odd where we can get a lesson.
I thank you for the well thought out post and yes I am only on demo for now again. I refuse to blow an account.

Good Trading Sir,
Mike

P.S. Cowboy songs coming up soon.
  • #32,119
  • Mar 14, 2012 9:15am Mar 14, 2012 9:15am
Quoting imjscn
Mike, refer to the "how much"-- maybe try set a max for your total skew size and stay within this amount for relatively a long period.
"within" means you can play smaller in normal trades, but never exceed the max when you become crazy.
After a while, by looking at your P/L, more or less you know market is doing nothing or doing a lot. Also, with familiar P/L numbers, your emotions are unlikely "frozen"(as N_trader described a while ago) in bad trades.
"hold on waiting for it coming back"-- No, I think it should be "hold on to see what...
Thank you for the advice imjscn. I will definitely make that a priority.

I really appreciate all the help on the mindset.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #32,120
  • Mar 14, 2012 9:19am Mar 14, 2012 9:19am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi Mike,

I've always admired peeps who dare step forward to share their life stories. I feel like we are a family here

My instinct tells me that you're gonna make it.

Regards

Thanks N_Trader, I feel the same. It wasn't easy to tell my story because my daddy always told me "son, you don't always have to tell everything you know"

One of many things he has said that he thought he was wasting his breath on but I heard him and eventually learned that he was one smart guy.

Thanks for the words of encouragement.

Good Trading
Mike
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