Beyond the Candles

So for the NU case, monthly give a higher low, up trend. Not a good idea to short.

Thanks for the analysis.

A LH and non a HL, that means sellers in a long bullish trend.
HL is a component of a bullish trend, meanwhile LH is a part of a bearish trend !

how many couples of (HH-HL) or (LH-LL) we can consider for a definite trend?

Hi 999 and welcome !
The trend is a very relative concept and depends on the TF you make the chart's analyse, if you have a long term M RET, obviously you will have W with a good defined trend or D.
I suggest you to read the chart and wait untill you see that all the TFs start telling you the same direction (trend or RM).
The eurusd is a good exemple:



Thanks for your contribution and for every question,chart,analyse,opinion..feel free to share with us !

.82 ???

Hi fxgroup,

I see your post here, "M-up trend in RM", for yahoo case.

I can understand the RM, but how to determine the M-up? Do you mean uptrend in the month here?

Thanks !

Hi
The M is up within the RM, the P start from the S and is going to R, looking to W, we can see a bullish continuation pattern (bullish flag)...so.. with the P that is toward to R and a W bullish pattern, we can say that the M is retracing in bullish trend within the RM limits !

Hi fxgroup,

This is a "a-ha" to me, thanks so much!

B.R.
Raymond

Hello Dariusz,

good question. I use both technical and fundamental analysis. It very much depends on the time frame you are looking at.

If you trade 1h and below ( even 4h ), you will need to check the calendar every day, be aware of all major news etc. You might see that large traders have priced in news already or, even more difficult, use the news for false moves and trap smaller traders, before price reverses back to its trend.

Example : we had a MPC meeting minutes notes in the UK and news came out that 2 members had different views than the majority on QE of the GBP. This was given as a reason why GBPUSD dropped in extreme ( just to rise next day again ).

Trading like that requires a lot of energy and attention, possibly multiple screens and you must watch the major US indices plus Gold & Oil at the least.

I would say that Ashraf Laidi and his book on Intermarket Analysis is good for this in terms of education.

Then there are other " gurus " like james16, who mainly advocate to ignore news, and focus on the chart and candle formations like BUOB, Pinbars etc. However, they also stress the point that its not just the candle formation, but also what they call " confluence ", another word for multiple factors/reasons supporting a trade decision, e.g. candle formations, support and resistance, what happened to price at this level before ( did it stay there for some time or move away rapidly ? ), then Fibonacci levels etc.

In my experience I have tried to follow both, but now that I take fewer trades I have a similar approach to a trader named " Razorjack " here in FF.

He points out that it is not so important to get distracted by short-term fundamentals from day to day ( this is of course what the media and talking heads focus on ), but it is indeed very helpful to ask questions about the macroeconomic situation and likely trades that can develop out of this situation.

Example : the rise of AUDUSD because of Chinas demand for commodities and Gold, the rise of Cad because of Oil, the difficult situation for the classic safe-haven currencies CHF and Yen ( SNB intervened by pegging to the EUR - so did you see the sudden surge in eurchf, usdchf and gbpchf ? ). Large traders obviously anticipated a turn-around ( weakening ) of the Yen, so we see USDJPY came alive again and started its upward move, and see how GBPJPY or NZDJPY and AUDJPY moved.

Result / " Where is this post going ? " : best is of course when M, W and D agree, we have clear levels and confirmations, plus the fundamental background is in agreement with this.

examples :

-fxgroup´s CHF/JPY trade, see his posts and charts.
-NZD/USD and AUDUSD now falling from clear congestion levels, plus they had the fundamental agreement from China lowering growth forecast & strong risk-off scenario in general.

Hope that helps.

Michael

P.S. Sorry for such a long post. I think best is : gain more experience for several months using fxgroups principles, get used to a certain way of looking at charts ( " WPD " & " WPG " ) and then - if a trade idea looks promising - slowly try to integrate the possible or most likely fundamental reasons as well.

Tradeable Pinbars and / or non-tradeable single candle formations......

I`ll wait here, no sure signs of confirmation.




Michael

Take a look at this !

AUDJPY....I will look very carefully to 90 !

That's an advanced trading concept called congestion. No, it's not the "normal" congestion, but a congestion pattern (i.e. triangles).

He means that if you look at the last swing (see how it's different from the previous one) you can foresee how at .82 something will happen.

Edit:

Long term analysis like the above may bring in a lot of fun and profitability. I am still amazed at how the trend lines I have drawn on the graph below about 10 months ago, are still current.

dfumagalli - great chart.

I hope that fxgroup, you and others write about congestion zones too. The old question ( and what drains traders accounts so often ) is : what do we do after strong impulsive moves, when price is in a sideways range.

- triangle congestions
- horizontal ranges with fake breakouts above and below
- bull/bear flags, wedges
etc.

Here is an update on my NZDUSD chart, we now see how important it was to include the 0.8200 level in our analysis.

Updates on other trade ideas ( with charts ) coming....;-)

Michael

Hi Michael, do you remember this post...take a look today and you will see what I was telling about !
At this point the safiest long trade with the overall trend is with 0.85 as S level !

I am humbled at seeing a 9 Vouchers Trader appreciate the work of a zero Vouchers guy

At the moment I don't have a lot of time to post about those, plus it's FXGroup thread and I don't want to intrude in it too much (I'll ask him what I can do).

As for triangles, they can be tricky (various kinds, can have nested ones and so on) but can give very satisfying opportunities.

Flags and wedges but also double tops / bottoms / cups / H&S / grammophones could cover a book. They are SO nice, they give almost exact targets and can be confirmed in an almost safe way (a vital feature for the day by day double top / bottom / H&S trading). Once again I'll PM FXGroup about this, there's to write for weeks.

Finally, the "fake" break outs don't really exist. They are liquidity re-adjustments, have telltale signs that tell you how to transform them from annoying risk into juicy opportunities or when to just skip an operation on them. Once again, it's FXGroup call about how / when to talk about them and in any way I learned from him everything you have seen and will see on this thread, all credits are his.

Thank you all. Reading this thread was better than reading a book about trading.

Thanks for all the valuable posts recently.

This week I will be looking for long-term buy opportunities mainly in uscad, and then a few other pairs......

Will have time to posts charts later this week.

Many pips to all !

Michael

[quote=noprogra;5463938] Thanks you noprogra and welcome !
Feel free to ask anything you want and I can assure you that you will find much more !

USDCHF

A simple but clear chart !