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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #32,021
  • Mar 11, 2012 7:48pm Mar 11, 2012 7:48pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I don't have to be BOJ to speculate based on economic factors. It's called speculation through analysis, not guessing. Are you a central bank yourself? Then if not what exactly are you doing? That's right speculating - same as I. Now, you are free to think I'm guessing just as I'm free to think whatever about you and your comments. Apparently you are not worthy of having a serious discussion as evidenced by your responses. Therefore this is my last reply to you unless you show mutual respect.

Regards

OK i agree it will increase the rate happy!!!! and once BOJ increase the rate we will celebrate in meanwhile lets trade...

V
  • #32,022
  • Mar 11, 2012 8:22pm Mar 11, 2012 8:22pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I don't have to be BOJ to speculate based on economic factors. It's called speculation through analysis, not guessing. Are you a central bank yourself? Then if not what exactly are you doing? That's right speculating - same as I. Now, you are free to think I'm guessing just as I'm free to think whatever about you and your comments. Apparently you are not worthy of having a serious discussion as evidenced by your responses. Therefore this is my last reply to you unless you show mutual respect.

Regards
Relax,what if someone told you 50bps has already priced.
Look at the yen or jgb forward curve.

Watch rates, it was mentioned a few posts back.

regards
  • #32,023
  • Mar 11, 2012 8:24pm Mar 11, 2012 8:24pm
Thanks Fti for the tour around the world!

Started to buy some Euro for the trip, but see that nobody is going there, so sold all the tickets and will wait for the cheaper price!
  • #32,024
  • Mar 11, 2012 8:41pm Mar 11, 2012 8:41pm
Quoting Jaro
Thanks Fti for the tour around the world!

Started to buy some Euro for the trip, but see that nobody is going there, so sold all the tickets and will wait for the cheaper price!

cheap is like par usd. but they not want go there in orderly manner.
Firewall has lots money.
Wait firewall go chapter 11. then will see real markets again.
For now is all manipulated.

regards
  • #32,025
  • Edited 10:23pm Mar 11, 2012 8:45pm | Edited 10:23pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I don't have to be BOJ to speculate based on economic factors. It's called speculation through analysis, not guessing. Are you a central bank yourself? Then if not what exactly are you doing? That's right speculating - same as I. Now, you are free to think I'm guessing just as I'm free to think whatever about you and your comments. Apparently you are not worthy of having a serious discussion as evidenced by your responses. Therefore this is my last reply to you unless you show mutual respect.

Regards
ai ya , we not know who you are.
you not read thread, come with crystal balls, and you demand respect?
i believe you not read the thread yet, al thought you seem experienced trader. So you not know the mindset on this thread.
Respect is a 2 way street.
you not go someone's home dump load of crap and expect to be respected , do you?

anyway you seem experienced enough take care of your book.
so maybe you are in the wrong thread. Don't read this one.

we are in stealth mode.
I am sorry i not know if rates going hawkish or dovish for BOJ.
Only that they used softer rates brought the yen back from the deep blue.
Here we seldom speculate, only trade. If you can understand what that means.

regards

If you turely not understand what i said. Let me just highlight some facts for you.
When we trade we try read the CB.
Like when The MOF and BOJ specifically warned that they would act.
Thats not speculating.
Thats listening.
When the Jap corps say they need 90 yen turn profits. Thats not speculation. These peeeps telling you their cost of productions and at what exchange rates they need turn a profit. And when MOF and BOJ says they will continue until their objective are met. Then its also not speculating.Is not whether it will get there. The only question at hand is WHEN.
So if you like speculate that they will raise rates, is your opinion . That's guessing and speculating.
So i hope you can reholster your ego now?
And is impolite go where you are not known, and make wise personal judgements. Truely we not know who or what you are. I not trying to be tactless. But is the truth is your 1st posting and you sound as if you was GOD. For a moment, i thought the BOJ sent you educate us.
  • #32,026
  • Mar 11, 2012 8:46pm Mar 11, 2012 8:46pm
Quoting fti

cheap is like par usd. but they not want go there in orderly manner.
Firewall has lots money.
Wait firewall go chapter 11. then will see real markets again.
For now is all manipulated.

regards
They still have printing press...
  • #32,027
  • Edited 9:26pm Mar 11, 2012 8:56pm | Edited 9:26pm
Quoting Jaro
They still have printing press...
what i am hearing is that germany is not very receptive to the giant firewall concept.
Is costing then too much of their reserves.
Euro may be on her own very soon , if the PIIS gets into trouble again.

If firewall is strong, maybe eurozone may get careless again with all wrong ideas.
ECB had just finished exercise gave all the too big to fails lots free cash.
Now every one's recapitalised, but i believe no one likes gets haircuts again.
So all should be very prudent about NPLs now.

Basically ECB is accountable for the euro. the question is whats the agendas of the stablising funds?
they are private. so who are they accountable to? Heard panda contempulating huge assistance to the stabalising funds. If that materalises, then who's finally going call the shots. Its too political to put a finger on? NO?

Is hard read the politics, easier read economic data. But now the euro not reflective of her fundementals. Is becoming very dangerous political minefield now.


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/10/wo...s.html?_r=3&hp

regards
  • #32,028
  • Mar 11, 2012 10:27pm Mar 11, 2012 10:27pm
seems i said more than i should today.
back to stealth mode.
are they going to pretend another volatility run before the inevitable?

wish i could see what the firewall's doing.

back to my cave.

regards
  • #32,029
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:21pm Mar 11, 2012 11:21pm
Quoting fti
ai ya , we not know who you are.
you not read thread, come with crystal balls, and you demand respect?
i believe you not read the thread yet, al thought you seem experienced trader. So you not know the mindset on this thread.
Respect is a 2 way street.
you not go someone's home dump load of crap and expect to be respected , do you?

anyway you seem experienced enough take care of your book.
so maybe you are in the wrong thread. Don't read this one.

we are in stealth mode.
I am sorry i not know if rates going hawkish or dovish for BOJ.
Only...
I don't know, sounds to me like you're the one wanting to play God. Usually when someone accuses another of something, it is themselves that is guilty. I simply made a comment about my opinion on BOJ rates and then asked what "you guys think?". Then after you said I was guessing, I elaborated that I wasn't guessing, I was just speculating. What kind of all-knowing God asks for someone's opinion?

What you are doing by "listening" to jap corp's saying they need a weaker yen is exactly what I'm doing... not guessing. And yes that is speculating. There is a difference between speculating and guessing. Last week on the USD/JPY thread I was very specific and said I believe that USD/JPY will not only reach 90.00, but may eventually get to 110.00 and possibly 123.50.

Anyway, I know you probably won't admit that your attitude towards me was rude to start, but it was and it was undeserving. So go on into your stealth mode. I will happily leave your thread so that you can play God to those that stay.
  • #32,030
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:41pm Mar 11, 2012 11:41pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I don't know, sounds to me like you're the one wanting to play God. Usually when someone accuses another of something, it is themselves that is guilty. I simply made a comment about my opinion on BOJ rates and then asked what "you guys think?". Then after you said I was guessing, I elaborated that I wasn't guessing, I was just speculating. What kind of all-knowing God asks for someone's opinion?

What you are doing by "listening" to jap corp's saying they need a weaker yen is exactly what I'm doing... not guessing. And yes that is speculating....
See, you not understand the mindset here.
Here we are not economist or CB watchers.
We not know stuff until is reported and markets reacting to the events.
The less we try being opinioned, the better we can trade.

if you feel that i am being rude, then please accept my apologies.
It was just that i saw a new poster, bringing a different mindset to the fold.
Is sometimes difficult, because new people coming bringing bias is not well received as is different from the MO that is being attempted to pass along here.

Any way was mostly bad timing , as i got into a bias about the Greece deal and nearly had my head taken off , just last week. You came at a time when i was mostly trying to correct that err and attempting return to my basics. Thats the reason for going into stealth mode to try find self again.

For what is worth, is nothing against you as a person , per say.
Is just diffent sets of mindset. And i see you have also have vouches the length of both arms, so I just accept that you are an experienced trader and not the likes of the redlion.

Anyway, if you will post links to your thread, maybe some may like explore your style of trading. For me i need the serene find myself for now.

Sorry if you felt you took one uncalled for. But is really bad timing and i am not at my best. In fact a little cranky lately and not very tolerant.

regards
  • #32,031
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:45pm Mar 11, 2012 11:45pm
Quoting fti
See, you not understand the mindset here.
Here we are not economist or CB watchers.
We not know stuff until is reported and markets reacting to the events.
The less we try being opinioned, the better we can trade.

if you feel that i am being rude, then please accept my apologies.
It was just that i saw a new poster, bringing a different mindset to the fold.
Is sometimes difficult, because new people coming bringing bias is not well received as is different from the MO that is being attempted to pass along here.

Any way was mostly bad timing...
No problem then. My apologies too if I was off topic for the thread. Wish you the best and success for all.
  • #32,032
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:52pm Mar 11, 2012 11:52pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
No problem then. My apologies too if I was off topic for the thread. Wish you the best and success for all.
Thank you, much obliged.

Good Fortune.

regards
  • #32,033
  • Mar 12, 2012 12:14am Mar 12, 2012 12:14am
my friends, sorry for my exuberance.
was a good wakeup call.
I am slipping and last week was very dangerous , although managed recover.
But is bad form, i must re read my thread.
So i hope thats a lesson to remember.

Gambling is not good form. But my physical state and my crankyness is not helping.
So you need be on lookout for yourself, ya?


regards
  • #32,034
  • Mar 12, 2012 12:23am Mar 12, 2012 12:23am
Quoting fti
my friends, sorry for my exuberance.
was a good wakeup call.
I am slipping and last week was very dangerous , although managed recover.
But is bad form, i must re read my thread.
So i hope thats a lesson to remember.

Gambling is not good form. But my physical state and my crankyness is not helping.
So you need be on lookout for yourself, ya?


regards
Never Mind

V
  • #32,035
  • Mar 12, 2012 12:25am Mar 12, 2012 12:25am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Chief,

can i point u some stuff recently saw from your post in an absoultely humble manner...

again in all humility

V
ya, humbled by the markets.
I should have the experience see it coming.
But erred. Fortunately survived the ordeal.

We are only as good as our last trade.

I need to check this.
is 2nd time.
1st was when the tsunami hit japan, i took i uncalculated risk.
This 2nd.
Praying no 3rd.

regards
  • #32,036
  • Mar 12, 2012 12:27am Mar 12, 2012 12:27am
ya why not old man. we already are indebted to you. indebted to extent that can never pay your credit back.

you see already bankrupt to pay your credit. your death battles are most thrilling events to learn. don't regret la. i remember the story of young monk and maid. do you? really you need read your thread again.

regards

at least nice to know that chief makes mistakes too.
  • #32,037
  • Mar 12, 2012 12:30am Mar 12, 2012 12:30am
Quoting fti
ya, humbled by the markets.
I should have the experience see it coming.
But erred. Fortunately survived the ordeal.

We are only as good as our last trade.

I need to check this.
is 2nd time.
1st was when the tsunami hit japan, i took i uncalculated risk.
This 2nd.
Praying no 3rd.

regards
chief,

hows health doing?

V
  • #32,038
  • Mar 12, 2012 12:31am Mar 12, 2012 12:31am
Quoting cuthbert
ya why not old man. we already are indebted to you. indebted to extent that can never pay your credit back.

you see already bankrupt to pay your credit. your death battles are most thrilling events to learn. don't regret la. i remember the story of young monk and maid. do you? really you need read your thread again.

regards
is embarassing that i can slip badly.

I not carry.
why you think i am, posting young heart songs.
but is nice know that i slipped.
And i must arrest the cause.

I am forcing, and there is no need to.

regards
  • #32,039
  • Mar 12, 2012 12:34am Mar 12, 2012 12:34am
Quoting indianguyinny24
chief,

hows health doing?

V
bad my friend.
seems survived the LV thrombos, but right eye bleed making mood swings unconfortable,.
Don't ask again, i trying forget my conditions.

regards
  • #32,040
  • Mar 12, 2012 12:37am Mar 12, 2012 12:37am
Quoting fti
bad my friend.
seems survived the LV thrombos, but right eye bleed making mood swings unconfortable,.
Don't ask again, i trying forget my conditions.

regards
...got it .....

V
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