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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #32,001
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:12am Mar 11, 2012 11:12am
Quoting cuthbert
anyone of them expert in AOW?
yeap, experts.
after they hit you, you wondering how your wallet grew its own legs.
That need consult simpleman, he expert in the bookkeeping.
or maybe just ask eric, he sang it.


regards

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  • #32,002
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:51am Mar 11, 2012 11:51am
ok jaro, please no faint, hor.

Here comes the city lasses.

Inserted Video


regards
  • #32,003
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:54am Mar 11, 2012 11:54am
Quoting fti
yeap, experts.
after they hit you, you wondering how your wallet grew its own legs.
That need consult simpleman, he expert in the bookkeeping.
or maybe just ask eric, he sang it.
haha no need expertise to feel when hit in belly. only madman or heretic wouldn't care.
i wonder what else these ladies do beside singing song. maybe i can find something compatible.

regards
  • #32,004
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:56am Mar 11, 2012 11:56am
Quoting fti
ok jaro, please no faint, hor.
Here comes the city lasses.
regards
not bad not bad. but countryside beats all the odds of city.

regards
  • #32,005
  • Edited 1:03pm Mar 11, 2012 12:17pm | Edited 1:03pm
oh my goodness.
matthew posted my favorite song.
Excuse me, i gonna mediate on it for a little, before markets opens.

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regards
  • #32,006
  • Mar 11, 2012 2:28pm Mar 11, 2012 2:28pm
Quoting fti
yeap, experts.
after they hit you, you wondering how your wallet grew its own legs.
That need consult simpleman, he expert in the bookkeeping.
or maybe just ask eric, he sang it.


regards

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3mtsBFe2Us

oh yes, I will hide their wallets, may be manage it in fx and when I default they will still be better off than Greek debt holders tax man will not even know what happened call it financial shinanigans.
  • #32,007
  • Mar 11, 2012 2:36pm Mar 11, 2012 2:36pm
maybe it is about stars

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  • #32,008
  • Edited 3:53pm Mar 11, 2012 2:54pm | Edited 3:53pm
ok, now we go back to the mattresses.

the mistake was in the volatility jerks.
so we know how vicious they can become.
but we knew that was the gamble.
need make adjustments.
IF i wanted gamble should go to the CASINO.
but since EU likes makes offers peeps cannot refuse.
we play same game with them.
best be on guards. close the bonds desk , and see how they gonna need buy their own papers.
best park the funds overnight than take tenure risk.
They dishonoured.



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back to the hills. scene of the crime? make a monte carlo of the EU?
but this time use correct arsenals.
They up the ante, we see how much heat firewall can take.
free $$$ hard to resist.


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usd is wet powder keg. have QE3 overhang.
Need use quasi euros against euro.
cable, chf and minors.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...European_Union

best from list seems the chf, yen, cable.
the ruble and rmb not freely accessible.

the chf suffered much disalignment.
similar to the germans they already big contributors to the zone.
they need much devaluating against the euro, similarly yen.
since they want push the euro up. then great,
lets see if they can deal with the inflation that comes with it.

hyper galopping inflation will have same impact as devaluation.
And since LTRO pumped lots M1(in circulation) in markets its gonna be hell calling it in.
  • #32,009
  • Mar 11, 2012 3:51pm Mar 11, 2012 3:51pm
Quoting fti
ok, now we go back to the mattresses.

the mistake was in the volatility jerks.
so we know how vicious they can become.
but we knew that was the gamble.
need make adjustments.
IF i wanted gamble should go to the CASINO.
but since EU likes makes offers peeps cannot refuse.
we play same game with them.
best be on guards. close the bonds desk , and see how they gonna need buy their own papers.
best park the funds overnight than take tenure risk.
They dishonoured.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6lIDU_nSWI

back to the...
Chief, Big Ben doesn't want strong dollar. Does that mean QE3 coming or manipulation? may be both, but if they bring in QE3 then EU will pump in more euros even if they don't then Portugal, Italy, Spain are following Greece which will ultimately keep euro lower, but then it goes back to the point where dollar will be stronger but then Big B will manipulate so it is backwards and forward more likely sideways market.
  • #32,010
  • Edited 4:07pm Mar 11, 2012 3:57pm | Edited 4:07pm
Quoting simpleman
Chief, Big Ben doesn't want strong dollar. Does that mean QE3 coming or manipulation? may be both, but if they bring in QE3 then EU will pump in more euros even if they don't then Portugal, Italy, Spain are following Greece which will ultimately keep euro lower, but then it goes back to the point where dollar will be stronger but then Big B will manipulate so it is backwards and forward more likely sideways market.
yes, the QE3 is overhanged.
but is election year.
They need be very careful, less it cheeses off the masses.
Of course is not one way street.
so need strategic plays.

Not forget that UK also did they version of QE, and have not seen the recoil from that yet.
best just keep inflating the EU until that bubble bang!.
This because Eu inflated their money supply most.
So ill be lots uro looking for parking slots.

1st signs of distress will be if aud drops rates.

note that all boom economies are slowing off. Panda, aus....etc.

also be wary of positions clustering due to stagnant markets. The sudden volatilitys is very damaging to the positions when clustered in price ranges. So needs much patience deal with the illiquidity.
  • #32,011
  • Mar 11, 2012 4:05pm Mar 11, 2012 4:05pm
Quoting fti
yes, the QE3 is overhanged.
but is election year.
They need be very careful, less it cheeses off the masses.
Of course is not one way street.
so need strategic plays.

Not forget that UK also did they version of QE, and have not seen the recoil from that yet.
best just keep inflating the EU until that bubble bang!.

1st signs of distress will be if aud drops rates.

note that all boom economies are slowing off. Panda, aus....etc.
yes, I read they had huge trade deficits last month or quarter after long time. Kiwi wants lower rates, I know small economy but with the aussie region.

I will play euro shorts as it will be easy adjusting if goes against.

ooops, I am getting biased again.
  • #32,012
  • Edited 4:22pm Mar 11, 2012 4:09pm | Edited 4:22pm
Quoting simpleman
yes, I read they had huge trade deficits last month or quarter after long time. Kiwi wants lower rates, I know small economy but with the aussie region.
we are ants.
So small economies still good feed for ants.
We are not pandas.

EU is giving much near free money out.
So money in circulate gonna be flushed.
They parking the moneys back to ECB for small rates.
Need wait the moneys migrate out.
then others need be dovish keep them from spill over.
watch for those signs.


regards

PS note that markets are extremely short the euro.
so the volatility lashbacks will be their stops.
And drops will see much profitakers.

ranges will be volatile.
so give leeway for 200pips volatilities minimum
  • #32,013
  • Mar 11, 2012 4:21pm Mar 11, 2012 4:21pm
Quoting fti
we are ants.
So small economies still good feed for ants.
We are not pandas.

EU is giving much near free money out.
So money in circulate gonna be flushed.
They parking the moneys back to ECB for small rates.
Need wait the moneys migrate out.
then others need be dovish keep them from spill over.
watch for those signs.


regards

PS note that markets are extremely short the euro.
so the volatility lashbacks will be their stops.
And drops will see much profitakers.
thinking when the carry will wind up and Japanese will start raising rates as they are working towards inflation. i.e. increasing taxes etc.

better keeps space between positions due to volatility.
  • #32,014
  • Edited 4:33pm Mar 11, 2012 4:23pm | Edited 4:33pm
Quoting simpleman
thinking when the carry will wind up and Japanese will start raising rates as they are working towards inflation. i.e. increasing taxes etc.
you kidding?
japs raise rates and parasites will not leave.
highly unlikely expectations.
The only cause that the yen is now weaker is because BOJ is easy on rates.
Some parasites left.
Some jap corps already declaring need yen above 90 for profitability to return.


regards

anyways i gone into stealth mode will only answer the correct questions from now on.
  • #32,015
  • Mar 11, 2012 4:30pm Mar 11, 2012 4:30pm
Quoting fti
you kidding?
japs raise rates and parasites will not leave.
highly unlikely expectations.
The only cause that the yen is now weaker is because BOJ is easy on rates.
Some parasites left.
Some jap corps already declaring need yen above 90 for profitability to return.


regards
yes, but even if they increase the rates to 1% it is not going to impact much, 0.25%/0.5% is too low anyway. IMO
Jap corps will have advantage of week currency @90 from 75 which is about 20% gain.
  • #32,016
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:22pm Mar 11, 2012 6:22pm
I expect a rate increase this year from BOJ. What you guys think?
  • #32,017
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:29pm Mar 11, 2012 6:29pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I expect a rate increase this year from BOJ. What you guys think?

i hope you have relatives working in the BOJ.
otherwise i think you guessing.
I think next colour is red 50% black 50%.

regards
  • #32,018
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:40pm Mar 11, 2012 6:40pm
Quoting fti

i hope you have relatives working in the BOJ.
otherwise i think you guessing.
I think next colour is red 50% black 50%.

regards
I'm not guessing.
  • #32,019
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:43pm Mar 11, 2012 6:43pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I'm not guessing.
oh, so you BOJ?
I still think you guessing.


regards
  • #32,020
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:58pm Mar 11, 2012 6:58pm
Quoting fti
oh, so you BOJ?
I still think you guessing.


regards
I don't have to be BOJ to speculate based on economic factors. It's called speculation through analysis, not guessing. Are you a central bank yourself? Then if not what exactly are you doing? That's right speculating - same as I. Now, you are free to think I'm guessing just as I'm free to think whatever about you and your comments. Apparently you are not worthy of having a serious discussion as evidenced by your responses. Therefore this is my last reply to you unless you show mutual respect.

Regards
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