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The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

  • #61
  • Mar 11, 2012 9:09am Mar 11, 2012 9:09am
Quoting bstay2
I also saw some that says, "thanks for showing us such a GREAT system, I hope to learn more from you". My immediate thoughts were, if you haven't even tried it, how do you know it is a GREAT system? Just following the cult by the number of viewers and pages? 70% could be a good estimate, LOL.
People are sheep. Most want their life to be decided by others, no matter if they wanna admit it or not. They do not dare to try to make it on their own. It's always easier to follow somebody. Also a reason why most are working for companies instead of establishing one on their own.
  • #62
  • Mar 11, 2012 9:20am Mar 11, 2012 9:20am
Quoting Favorite
Shahrooz, you don't remember last May, when "Trading Made Simple" thread started. People kept making the same remarks like LazyPawn did here: "We'll see it in a year!"
Favorite, I think that you don't understand my first post. It is not criticizing people who post strategies. It is not criticizing strategies themselves. It's a post about human psychology. Some systems are good, others not so much. Some traders are very good, others not so much. But the post is not about that.

Now if we're talking about Trading Made Simple, it was indeed one of the hottest threads on ICC at one point. Like many others before it and others after it. And I followed it although I never attempted to trade it. But please check the points that I posted and tell me if you find any of them missing. Is it true that it had its early followers, the groupies? Yes. Is it true that it was invaded by newbies very soon? Yes. Is it true that BigE was turned into some kind of demigod by many? Yes. Is it true that people started to add indicators although the original poster specifically asked them not to do so? Yes, many. Is it true that one system became several systems, by using different rules and new indicators and time frames? Yes, we even have some threads in progress derived from the original TMS. Is it true that they tried to build an EA to trade it? Yes, just check please. Is it true that some people keep posting good results while others say they are not successful with it? Yes. Is it true that the OP and some of the early posters are gone? Yes. The thread had 50 posts a day, now it has only a few a week.

If you think the answer to any of the above is no, I can give you links to prove my point. Exactly the same will happen with any of the current threads. That's human nature and it tells nothing about the value of the system itself.
  • #63
  • Mar 11, 2012 9:31am Mar 11, 2012 9:31am
All long threads fit the model of the first post.

If a system works and is clearly presented there is nothing left to post about.

Why would there be hundreds of posts saying "I understand the rules and it works"?

Long winded threads mean the rules are vague, are continually changing or the method does not work and is being constantly adjusted.


The best methods on this forum may not have over 8 or 10 posts.
  • #64
  • Mar 11, 2012 9:38am Mar 11, 2012 9:38am
The biggest problem I see for the early threads on successful systems is simply the layout of the website. Once the posts are off the first 2 or 3 pages it can go into hibernation.

Web 2.0 would help this out a lot. Word clouds sized by total views.

Also, I think we need to see each trading system as a belief system. You can back it up with whatever hard data available, but any method of trading is still based on a belief. Would you insult someone for believing in a certain religion so openly? I doubt it, but that's what happens on this site all the time.

Just like in computer programming, a set of logic can use completely different means to arrive at the same conclusion. Everyone here is trying to accomplish the same end, it takes an open mind to realize the many ways.

Quoting LazyPawn
Favorite, I think that you don't understand my first post. It is not criticizing people who post strategies. It is not criticizing strategies themselves. It's a post about human psychology. Some systems are good, others not so much. Some traders are very good, others not so much. But the post is not about that.

Now if we're talking about Trading Made Simple, it was indeed one of the hottest threads on ICC at one point. Like many others before it and others after it. And I followed it although I never attempted to trade it. But please check the...
Skype: heliosphan187
  • #65
  • Mar 11, 2012 10:00am Mar 11, 2012 10:00am
Quoting billbss
All long threads fit the model of the first post.

If a system works and is clearly presented there is nothing left to post about.

Why would there be hundreds of posts saying "I understand the rules and it works"?

Long winded threads mean the rules are vague, are continually changing or the method does not work and is being constantly adjusted.


The best methods on this forum may not have over 8 or 10 posts.
what about the turtle traders bill? they all traded the same system and rules, some were successful and some were not? why is that?

We have to accept that the biggest variable is the traders themselves...

I think there has to, and always will be an element of discretion with any system. The market as a whole is random with some repeating patterns.

Is the real purpose of a thread to present some rules that appear to have some merit and then see how over time if some people can develop a successful system out of it?.

Its entirely possible for a system to work over 100 trades, but fail over 1000...? So sometimes time is a factor too.
tradewith60
  • #66
  • Mar 11, 2012 10:08am Mar 11, 2012 10:08am
Quoting 60minuteman
what about the turtle traders bill? they all traded the same system and rules, some were successful and some were not? why is that?

We have to accept that the biggest variable is the traders themselves...

I think there has to, and always will be an element of discretion with any system. The market as a whole is random with some repeating patterns.

Is the real purpose of a thread to present some rules that appear to have some merit and then see how over time if some people can develop a successful system out of it?.

Its entirely possible for...

The Turtle rules were clear and unmistakable.
The people who failed didn't follow them- they used discretion.
Do a search for Curtis Faith and read what he has to say about it. He was a successful Turtle trader.

Using discretion is nothing more than guessing. If one does that, there is no reason for a system. Just open up a chart and start guessing.
  • #67
  • Edited 10:50am Mar 11, 2012 10:36am | Edited 10:50am
Quoting billbss
The Turtle rules were clear and unmistakable.
The people who failed didn't follow them- they used discretion.
Do a search for Curtis Faith and read what he has to say about it. He was a successful Turtle trader.

Using discretion is nothing more than guessing. If one does that, there is no reason for a system. Just open up a chart and start guessing.
ok, I hear what you're saying Bill..... do I believe its the only way to trade? i'm not sure...

I'm not convinced all successful traders use a completely mechanical approach, and if they did would traders even exist? surely it would all be computers...

and maybe what i should of said is discretion should be used until we have enough evidence that one method is consistently better than the other.

I know my entry rules, stop rules and position sizing are watertight, but when to exit i am still unsure of... use discretion until we find the best solution...

and it seems there is some discretion in your own thread too
"Exits are up to you. Dr. Bob couldn't make up his mind about when to exit either. The entrances are great though."
tradewith60
  • #68
  • Mar 11, 2012 10:45am Mar 11, 2012 10:45am
but why do anyone have a system to follow, when the game is such an unpredictable one?

e.g. many people close positions ahead of NFP because they know its volatile. But what if some people has the rule: never move the SL and TP for consistency?
  • #69
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:00am Mar 11, 2012 11:00am
Quoting 60minuteman
ok, I hear what you're saying Bill..... do I believe its the only way to trade? i'm not sure...

I'm not convinced all successful traders use a completely mechanical approach, and if they did would traders even exist? surely it would all be computers...

and maybe what i should of said is discretion should be used until we have enough evidence that one method is consistently better than the other.

I know my entry rules, stop rules and position sizing are watertight, but when to exit i am still unsure of... use discretion until we find the best...

That's fine. Use hunches and "what ifs" when you are formulating your system rules. Test them and see if they work to make profit. If they do- incorporate them as rules.
I'm sure that was done in developing the Turtle system.

I see you recommend pivots and round numbers as guides. Have you proven they work?
I have searched and I have never seen any evidence they do. Have you?

I believe you could plot random horizontal lines on a chart and see as many bounces as you do for pivots and round numbers.

John Person wrote a book on using pivots. I thoroughly tested his proposed system and it did not work.
  • #70
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:01am Mar 11, 2012 11:01am
Quoting trader-tan
but why do anyone have a system to follow, when the game is such an unpredictable one?

e.g. many people close positions ahead of NFP because they know its volatile. But what if some people has the rule: never move the SL and TP for consistency?
You can have a rule not to trade on NFP day. I don't trade that day.
  • #71
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:04am Mar 11, 2012 11:04am
No such thing as ALWAYS, NEVER, etc. Exceptions exist in this forum, people can just want to share and interact with each other...


cheers

Quoting billbss
All long threads fit the model of the first post.

If a system works and is clearly presented there is nothing left to post about.

Why would there be hundreds of posts saying "I understand the rules and it works"?

Long winded threads mean the rules are vague, are continually changing or the method does not work and is being constantly adjusted.


The best methods on this forum may not have over 8 or 10 posts.
  • #72
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:07am Mar 11, 2012 11:07am
Quoting billbss
That's fine. Use hunches and "what ifs" when you are formulating your system rules. Test them and see if they work to make profit. If they do- incorporate them as rules.
I'm sure that was done in developing the Turtle system.

I see you recommend pivots and round numbers as guides. Have you proven they work?
I have searched and I have never seen any evidence they do. Have you?

I believe you could plot random horizontal lines on a chart and see as many bounces as you do for pivots and round numbers.

John Person wrote a book on using pivots....
nah Bill I think thats someone else on my thread, i never use pivots or round numbers.

Price action and support/resistance only for me, I use the 50sma but I envisage doing away with that too at some point.
tradewith60
  • #73
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:12am Mar 11, 2012 11:12am
Quoting 60minuteman
nah Bill I think thats someone else on my thread, i never use pivots or round numbers.

Price action and support/resistance only for me, I use the 50sma but I envisage doing away with that too at some point.
Then my apologies. I read it on your thread, and had it in my mind it was you.

The problem I have with support and resistance is that it is ambiguous.

I've played with it a little and can find a couple of rejections at almost every price level.

If you have a way of accurately identifying it- go with it.
  • #74
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:16am Mar 11, 2012 11:16am
Quoting Paris13
Then the upcomming episode you can do an "intervention" where the family unplugs the computer and everybody starts crying...Great stuff!!!!
THE INTERVENTION:


**Family and friends gather ominously headed by a recognized Guru/Psychologist**

Dr Pill: "Billy, don't be alarmed, pleast sit down son"
{Billy eases uncomfortably onto one of the large "intervention" couches}
Mom: "Billy, what you are doing is gambling, and it has to stop, right now!"
Billy: "Um.."
Dr Pill: "Billy..do you hear what your mother is saying to you?"
Billy: "But Mom, it's not gambling...it's.."
{other family members start chiming in and murmuring}
Family: "yeah its gambling.. what is it then..? sure looks like it to me.."
Mom:{shrieks} "But your losing money!!"
Billy: {stammering]"y-yeh I know mom..but..I just need some more time..i-it takes time to.."
{Mom starts crying uncontrollably, other family members rush to her side}
Dr Pill: "Billy, I think you may have a problem, son, but I want you to know that there IS help available."
Billy: "Oh...My....Gawd....."

{After great bouts of crying and hugging and Billy's trading computer is confiscated, Billy finally accepts Dr Pill's generous offer of help}
  • #75
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:17am Mar 11, 2012 11:17am
This is the best thread on FF. Psychology, Anthropology, Human Nature - it's all here, in all its extremes.

We've got people criticizing the OP, and others defending him.

We're adding new ways to make the system better: make it a game show, or a reality show.

I think this thread is about at Stage 7. It's time to get a good developer to code us a robot.
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #76
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:20am Mar 11, 2012 11:20am
Quoting Aldente
THE INTERVENTION:


**Family and friends gather ominously headed by a recognized Guru/Psychologist**

Dr Pill: "Billy, don't be alarmed, pleast sit down son"
{Billy eases uncomfortably onto one of the large "intervention" couches}
Mom: "Billy, what you are doing is gambling, and it has to stop, right now!"
Billy: "Um.."
Dr Pill: "Billy..do you hear what your mother is saying to you?"
Billy: "But Mom, it's not gambling...it's.."
{other family members start chiming in and murmuring}
Family: "yeah its gambling.. what is it then..?...
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #77
  • Mar 11, 2012 12:21pm Mar 11, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting Dirtybrown
Also, I think we need to see each trading system as a belief system. You can back it up with whatever hard data available, but any method of trading is still based on a belief.
If we're talking about how that particular method is going to work in the future, then yes. We don't know that. All disclaimers have it - past performance is not indicative of future results. Market conditions can change and any system can fail or become profitable at some point. But when it comes to testing a system live, or when talking about how the system would have performed in the last month/year/10 years then it has nothing to do with belief. If the rules are clearly defined everybody should be able to test them and they should all get identical results. That's exactly why systems that really worked were and are very clearly defined (such as the turtles that was mentioned above), whereas the wannabe systems are filled with discretionary decisions, repainting indicators and constantly changing rules. It doesn't mean that the trader himself cannot be profitable. Maybe he is. But it's not thanks to the system. It is because his discretionary decisions are good, or he is lucky, or he can feel changes in the market sentiment and so on.

Quote
Would you insult someone for believing in a certain religion so openly? I doubt it, but that's what happens on this site all the time.

I wouldn't insult them directly, I don't like to hurt people. But that doesn't mean I think that their fantasies are worthy of any kind of respect. I just let them be. So if you think that praying to some particular deity works (as an example) - despite evidence to the contrary, or if you think that your trading system is great even though a simple back test shows that it's not profitable - that's fine with me, I'm not going to insult you. But it will always make me smile.
  • #78
  • Mar 11, 2012 1:10pm Mar 11, 2012 1:10pm
http://cache.blippitt.com/wp-content...en-Colbert.gif
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #79
  • Mar 11, 2012 1:50pm Mar 11, 2012 1:50pm
Quoting LazyPawn
Favorite, I think that you don't understand my first post. It is not criticizing people who post strategies. It is not criticizing strategies themselves. It's a post about human psychology. Some systems are good, others not so much. Some traders are very good, others not so much. But the post is not about that.

Now if we're talking about Trading Made Simple, it was indeed one of the hottest threads on ICC at one point. Like many others before it and others after it. And I followed it although I never attempted to trade it. But please check the...
LazyPawn, as I said before, I already let it go, I have enough self-respect not to participate in the threads like this one.

Bye!
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #80
  • Mar 11, 2012 2:29pm Mar 11, 2012 2:29pm
Quoting Favorite
LazyPawn, as I said before, I already let it go, I have enough self-respect not to participate in the threads like this one. Bye!
You did participate. Until proven wrong. Same as your friend. Green pips to you.
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