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  • #1,461
  • Mar 5, 2012 2:25am Mar 5, 2012 2:25am
Can someone please explain why EU didn't fill the gap at 1.3141? I'm still sitting here with my finger over the buy button and my short from 1.334 losing profit.

It has been my (wrong?) understanding, that in situations like this the gap will be filled.
  • #1,462
  • Mar 5, 2012 5:18am Mar 5, 2012 5:18am
Quoting Ultimatus
Can someone please explain why EU didn't fill the gap at 1.3141? I'm still sitting here with my finger over the buy button and my short from 1.334 losing profit.

It has been my (wrong?) understanding, that in situations like this the gap will be filled.
There are no gaps in forex - what you think is a gap is lack of data from your broker being closed over the weekend.

Itīs called a "retail gap"

Regards,
H.
"The future is already written in the past"
  • #1,463
  • Mar 5, 2012 5:27am Mar 5, 2012 5:27am
Quoting hansma
There are no gaps in forex - what you think is a gap is lack of data from your broker being closed over the weekend.

Itīs called a "retail gap"

Regards,
H.
Hi,

I am aware of the cause of the gap, however, experience has taught me that the market does fill these gaps, especially when they coincide with a nice demand level and trend line.

Not this time I guess.

If that gap wasn't there, I would be long already.
  • #1,464
  • Mar 5, 2012 10:37am Mar 5, 2012 10:37am
Quoting Ultimatus
Hi,

I am aware of the cause of the gap, however, experience has taught me that the market does fill these gaps, especially when they coincide with a nice demand level and trend line.

Not this time I guess.

If that gap wasn't there, I would be long already.

Well thereīs also a gap from 20/1 2012 that has not been filled.

How long are you going to be ?

Regards,
H.
"The future is already written in the past"
  • #1,465
  • Mar 5, 2012 11:24am Mar 5, 2012 11:24am
Quoting hansma
Well thereīs also a gap from 20/1 2012 that has not been filled.

How long are you going to be ?

Regards,
H.
On EU? looks filled to me:

http://clip2net.com/s/1Fprx

I can't be the only one who notices that the market likes to fill these gaps?

Anyway, I've learnt an important lesson today to not put so much trust in them.
  • #1,466
  • Mar 8, 2012 10:00pm Mar 8, 2012 10:00pm
Can someone please explain to me why Kenny should not have taken the second trade (as he pointed out). I can't understanding the reasoning. Looks like a trade that I would have no problem making. Thanks!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5400352#post5400352
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #1,467
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:00am Mar 9, 2012 1:00am
Quoting Xhale12
Can someone please explain to me why Kenny should not have taken the second trade (as he pointed out). I can't understanding the reasoning. Looks like a trade that I would have no problem making. Thanks!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5400352#post5400352
i think because price had already reacted 2 times there before so the area was empty of orders.
  • #1,468
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:31am Mar 9, 2012 1:31am
Quoting Xhale12
Can someone please explain to me why Kenny should not have taken the second trade (as he pointed out). I can't understanding the reasoning. Looks like a trade that I would have no problem making. Thanks!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5400352#post5400352
First trade: He buy at demand. The area he bought was visited twice. The first visit clear up minor supply pocket. so that the second revisit which is lower can shoot up smoothly.

Second trade: He sell at the supply zone. This supply zone is a mess with 3-4 visit. I would not enter this trade because it will be hard for me to set SL.
Think of it yourself. If you were to sell at that area and set stop loss at higher area (if you notice the SL zone it is another supply area). After hitting your SL it might be the turning point. So if there are stacked supply (1 supply zone near to another supply zone) , I will take the higher zone or else I dont mind missing the trade.

Additional: I m not sure what is the grey dashed line indicate. But it does show that the overall trend is Up. So it is better to buy than sell.
See the big candle. They are all "UP" troop. Momentum is up

This is just what i think. It may not be correct
  • #1,469
  • Mar 9, 2012 2:50am Mar 9, 2012 2:50am
My view.

The buy was due to bullish sentiment, bull flagging and I would say the other USD pairs were showing bull too (gu, au, ect.)... you see this a lot in Ken's trades. There were some engulfs before his buy in response to demand. Because of that bullish momentum the sellers were unlikely to hold (+ supply was visited a few times) thus stopped on the sale.

As for the line... it was a very important level. Zoomed out on 15m and you see it as clear as day.

..
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  • #1,470
  • Mar 9, 2012 4:17am Mar 9, 2012 4:17am
Looking back Tyoon is correct is was a bullflag and that last dip picked up some big demand evident from the confluence. But the supply KennyZ was shorting from had resistance from the Sunday gap maybe given him some more confidence at the time to use the zone a 3 rd time.

But i don't think Kenny analyzed it that much and just put the charts out there to show the higher risk of using a zone more than once.
  • #1,471
  • Mar 9, 2012 7:39am Mar 9, 2012 7:39am
Thanks guys.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #1,472
  • Mar 10, 2012 1:47pm Mar 10, 2012 1:47pm
Hi guys!

Do you agree with me that this chart can be an example of the weakening supply zone (oldest - black one)?

Perhaps we'll see here more movements to the south, because none of the zones has been broken, but higher lows suggest strong demand.

By the way, do you think that the inner S/D zone inside larger one (in the same time frame) gives more 'power' to that zone? Can we threat them like stacked ones?

kruger
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  • #1,473
  • Mar 10, 2012 1:52pm Mar 10, 2012 1:52pm
Quoting kruger
Hi guys!

Do you agree with me that this chart can be an example of the weakening supply zone (oldest - black one)?

Perhaps we'll see here more movements to the south, because none of the zones has been broken, but higher lows suggest strong demand.

By the way, do you think that the inner S/D zone inside larger one (in the same time frame) gives more 'power' to that zone? Can we threat them like stacked ones?

kruger
I'm not sure which zone you're talking about?
  • #1,474
  • Mar 10, 2012 1:58pm Mar 10, 2012 1:58pm
Quoting frankkn
I'm not sure which zone you're talking about?
OK, sorry, I should add a description.
The dashed line is the beginning of the zone and solid line is the end of it.
Black is the first one, next blue, and green - last one.
And I meant for the black one.
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  • #1,475
  • Mar 10, 2012 2:09pm Mar 10, 2012 2:09pm
Quoting kruger
OK, sorry, I should add a description.
The dashed line is the beginning of the zone and solid line is the end of it.
Black is the first one, next blue, and green - last one.
And I meant for the black one.
In that case if I were looking for trades on that pair I would consider those to be in the middle of the curve. Also it's a monthly chart so I would definitely not be too concerned about those areas.

Instead kiwi is a high yield risk-on currency and jpy is a low yield safe haven. This means that if you look for price action on the lower time frames the movements will follow macro cash flows that can be very volatile, but easy to follow if you keep your head up. Not that you need to pay attention to fundamentals when it comes to order placement, but with a pair like NJ it's good to just go with the immediate flows.

But in regard to your question about the zones, I wouldn't even pay attention to those from a tech perspective because they are "in the middle of the curve" as Sam Seiden would say. [Edit] On that time frame, of course.
  • #1,476
  • Mar 10, 2012 2:25pm Mar 10, 2012 2:25pm
Quote
Instead kiwi is a high yield risk-on currency and jpy is a low yield safe haven. This means that if you look for price action on the lower time frames the movements will follow macro cash flows that can be very volatile, but easy to follow if you keep your head up. Not that you need to pay attention to fundamentals when it comes to order placement, but with a pair like NJ it's good to just go with the immediate flows.
My intention here was a more general picture than a specific pair or time frame, but thank you for more detailed information about this pair!

What do you mean by "in the middle of the curve" - I had to miss it in Sam articles.
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  • #1,477
  • Mar 10, 2012 2:35pm Mar 10, 2012 2:35pm
Quoting kruger
What do you mean by "in the middle of the curve" - I had to miss it in Sam articles.
I mean zones towards the middle of the chart, as opposed to zones at the extremes. In reference to the Y axis.
  • #1,478
  • Mar 10, 2012 3:54pm Mar 10, 2012 3:54pm
Quoting frankkn
I mean zones towards the middle of the chart, as opposed to zones at the extremes. In reference to the Y axis.
OK, thanks
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  • #1,479
  • Mar 16, 2012 1:36am Mar 16, 2012 1:36am
retailers vs institutions ?
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  • #1,480
  • Mar 16, 2012 1:46am Mar 16, 2012 1:46am
Quoting kruger
retailers vs institutions ?
It doesn't have to be that way
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