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B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

  • #3,001
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:23pm Mar 7, 2012 10:23pm
I really blew it on that oz long ,,,
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,002
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:27pm Mar 7, 2012 10:27pm
Quoting Kenneth Lee
I really blew it on that oz long ,,,
Won't be the last opportunity in the market.
FXGears.com
  • #3,003
  • Edited 11:36pm Mar 7, 2012 11:30pm | Edited 11:36pm
Waiting for the eu to reach the base, trying to wait till 1.3190 to have 20 pips of SL, covering the upper level on level, and having also the protection of the psych level 1.3200.

I'm not sure if it will go so far. Price seem was losing strenght, and even I was doubting if enter now with the SL over the pinbar, or in 1.3190

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  • #3,004
  • Mar 7, 2012 11:45pm Mar 7, 2012 11:45pm
I doubt it could make it to the 1.3190, so I entered the trade at 1.3177, with the SL on 1.3210, but probably tightening fast.
TPon 1.3120, but I will take care on 1.3145

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  • #3,005
  • Mar 8, 2012 12:03am Mar 8, 2012 12:03am
I am now short Gbpusd

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  • #3,006
  • Mar 8, 2012 1:59am Mar 8, 2012 1:59am
eu waiting for price to move into the zone
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  • #3,007
  • Mar 8, 2012 4:04am Mar 8, 2012 4:04am
Quoting okami
I doubt it could make it to the 1.3190, so I entered the trade at 1.3177, with the SL on 1.3210, but probably tightening fast.
TPon 1.3120, but I will take care on 1.3145

Attachment
SL touched. -32pips (-2.5%)

Maybe it was not a good level?
Maybe should I cut the trade when it hesitates so much time in the zone, or when it started to get high momentum?

Or it was a good level, and it was well managed, but being a probability game, just some levels have to not hold?

What do you think? how would you trade this?

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  • #3,008
  • Mar 8, 2012 4:09am Mar 8, 2012 4:09am
Quoting okami
SL touched. -32pips (-2.5%)

Maybe it was not a good level?
Maybe should I cut the trade when it hesitates so much time in the zone, or when it started to get high momentum?

Or it was a good level, and it was well managed, but being a probability game, just some levels have to not hold?

What do you think? how would you trade this?

Attachment
Same here on the EURUSD loss. to compound my error I was short GBPUSD at the same time, doubling my risk. Need to get these bad practices out of my system.

What are people's views on these levels? I think that with the last strong upmove in EU and GU, both pairs have moved off their H4 demand levels and should now move towards their next H4 supply areas. I am waiting to short GU at around 1.586.
  • #3,009
  • Mar 8, 2012 4:14am Mar 8, 2012 4:14am
Quoting Kenneth Lee
another tiny trade , I may not post them all. but the key is that all trading revolves around supply and demand levels.
HI Ken,

On the previous candle that touched the area, it went to the bottom of the level showing us that the demand has been consumed and we shouldn't look for longs, no ?

Thx.
Trade Smart
  • #3,010
  • Edited 5:00am Mar 8, 2012 4:16am | Edited 5:00am
Quoting okami
SL touched. -32pips (-2.5%)

Maybe it was not a good level?
Maybe should I cut the trade when it hesitates so much time in the zone, or when it started to get high momentum?

Or it was a good level, and it was well managed, but being a probability game, just some levels have to not hold?

What do you think? how would you trade this?

Attachment

Hi Okami,

I think the level was good but as Kenneth have said, when price move more than a 50-61,8 the trend is over, if its a down move and its goes over the 61.8 he will look it now as an uptrend, if you are going to look for CT I would recommend you to look for level on levels as the first level will take much of the demand in this case, also we were entering a supply zone on the 4hr 1.3210-1.3250 so a level inside that one would have been great.

Hope it helps.
Os.
Trade Smart
  • #3,011
  • Mar 8, 2012 4:42am Mar 8, 2012 4:42am
Perhaps 1.3240 would have been a better SL to use on this trade?

Thanks
  • #3,012
  • Mar 8, 2012 6:07am Mar 8, 2012 6:07am
GU 15mins,


Was looking at a swap on the red square and just below we had a nice level with a strong move up.

Reached 2:1 so closed it manually before news came out.

Os.
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Trade Smart
  • #3,013
  • Mar 8, 2012 6:13am Mar 8, 2012 6:13am
Quoting Osman
Hi Okami,

I think the level was good but as Kenneth have said, when price move more than a 50-61,8 the trend is over, if its a down move and its goes over the 61.8 he will look it now as an uptrend, if you are going to look for CT I would recommend you to look for level on levels as the first level will take much of the demand in this case, also we were entering a supply zone on the 4hr 1.3210-1.3250 so a level inside that one would have been great.

Hope it helps.
Os.
Hi Osman!,

thanks for your input. In fact it was a levels on levels on 30m; also Sam was talking about this levels in the last webinar, what gaves me more confidence. But looking at it now, I see the better level in 4H (that anyway, seems it isn't holding neither).

It seems that really we are changing the minor trend direction in this moments:

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to continue up with the intermediate uptrend. So we, not being aware of this, were making countertrend trades.

About the 50-61.8% as indicative of trend direction change, I understand that being the levels over the 61% we have to take care because it could be a trend change, as it seems is being:

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But, looking at the historical, it seems that there are a lot of moments where a return further than 61% gives us in fact a great oportunity:

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Maybe the better indicative to know a trend change direction is the higher lows and lower highs... (and neither a 100% indicator of change)
  • #3,014
  • Mar 8, 2012 6:20am Mar 8, 2012 6:20am
GBP USD long.

Entered before the news and was up some pips, news hit the wire then the surge in price hit my tp (2:1) on the first half of the trade.

Looking to run the rest up to 1.5845 (just below 60 minute supply) given 30 minute supply (1.5818-1.5828) has been breached.
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  • #3,015
  • Mar 8, 2012 6:20am Mar 8, 2012 6:20am
Quoting londonhearts
Same here on the EURUSD loss. to compound my error I was short GBPUSD at the same time, doubling my risk. Need to get these bad practices out of my system.

What are people's views on these levels? I think that with the last strong upmove in EU and GU, both pairs have moved off their H4 demand levels and should now move towards their next H4 supply areas. I am waiting to short GU at around 1.586.
I reenter in the euro in the better H4 level, being crushed again...
  • #3,016
  • Mar 8, 2012 6:29am Mar 8, 2012 6:29am
Quoting Osman
HI Ken,

On the previous candle that touched the area, it went to the bottom of the level showing us that the demand has been consumed and we shouldn't look for longs, no ?

Thx.
5

That was a news candle and rejected very well. They happen so quickly that they do push through the levels at times but i look at how they reject. When that candle went thru the level my spread was 30 , No way to enter on it and didn't want to . but when it retraced back to the top and then tested again was worth a bit .

I did not see clearly as that turn was finally a higher low and a very higher high did follow . I was preoccupied at the time .

Not been the best of weeks. But it is what it is. just shows you can still do OK , being overly conservative. But it is better to get a few decent trades , My small scalps have not been like this for awhile. one reason i now use the 30 min chart as even the small trades off it are a bit bigger. but for some reason this week they allude me.

Cheers Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,017
  • Mar 8, 2012 6:35am Mar 8, 2012 6:35am
Quoting Rees
GBP USD long.

Entered before the news and was up some pips, news hit the wire then the surge in price hit my tp (2:1) on the first half of the trade.

Looking to run the rest up to 1.5845 (just below 60 minute supply) given 30 minute supply (1.5818-1.5828) has been breached.
Well done, Rees.

It seems that today is a day for longs.

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  • #3,018
  • Mar 8, 2012 6:39am Mar 8, 2012 6:39am
Review of earlier EU trade
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  • #3,019
  • Mar 8, 2012 6:47am Mar 8, 2012 6:47am
when I look for swings I look at the close of the candles. I have this mental Idea about what is going on behind the screen, From watching Price Action as it hits levels. i tend to think that large trading concerns. Don't have pending orders sitting out in cyber space, but have tickets or spots picked . Plus the sheer sizes of their orders make it a bit harder to get filled than our trades which for a lot of us are taken by the order desk of our brokers who either hold them against us or pass them along to waiting concerns.

My thought is that a initial move can go lower or higher as it takes a moment to sort all that out and really get down to selling and buying the orders. i kind of like to think of a desk handing off a order when price approaches a level and a runner running down into the pit so the traders can then start shouting for buyers or sellers. I know a lot more is done on computers but this is how I see trading and why we can get spikes very low into a level at times especially after a news release.

My view of price action revolves around this idea. I can watch the price at the levels i have chosen and almost SEE in my minds eye as each pass of a paper ticket happens. i try to show this on faster charts but in real time you can see it watching the price fluctuate. it STRETCH towards a level and as it touches a certain number will jump back very fast as it has hit that exact price level.

Then as the orders are absorbed or used up price will either turn back or POP thru the level. This is why our stop is a few past the level because when it gives way price will make a aggressive move thru it at time this can be many pips .

Try and visualize this scenario going on as price reacts with your chosen levels and it may become a bit clearer as to what your seeing.

Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,020
  • Mar 8, 2012 6:49am Mar 8, 2012 6:49am
woke up a bit late , but see OZ reached the 4 hr supply level , Now to see. I missed the entry so have to wait to see if it forms new swings for a short or take a long off the 30 min chart or hrly chart. about 1.0610 is a good spot that is confirmed by both .
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
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