The 1000 pip trade? | Forex Factory

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The 1000 pip trade?

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 25, 2012 2:29am Feb 25, 2012 2:29am
I know this may not be every ones cup of tea, as allot of people scalp for 50-100 pips or so. I thought it would be interesting to find out if people hold trades up until the 1000 pip mark?

I never really knew its potential at the time but i managed to catch this one and it has been allot less stressful than shooting for 50-100 pips. I am so proud of it I had to give it its own thread! So please feel free to post up your trades whether they are 1000 pipers or potential thousand pipers..

Best
RS
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  • #2
  • Feb 25, 2012 3:40am Feb 25, 2012 3:40am
2 reasons why I wouldn't shoot for thousand-pip trades:

1. I look for 100 pips a day, and when I get this I'm achieving 1,000 pips every 2 weeks, it can take several months for a pair to move 1,000 pips in one direction

2. A 1,000 pip trade may not be stressful when you're always on the right side, a different story if you get it wrong, how big a stop loss would you place for a 1,000 pip target?

Andy
  • #3
  • Feb 25, 2012 10:43am Feb 25, 2012 10:43am
This is how I used to trade, riding long trends. I would say it's far more stressful and very annoying.

I am much more relaxed and far more profitable just taking trades around 50-100 pips at a time. Of course this comes down to personality and you have to figure out what suits you.
  • #4
  • Feb 25, 2012 11:02am Feb 25, 2012 11:02am
focus on consistent, low percentage gains to your account(if youre serious about trading). I would rather have a trader that could do 1%day in day out than someone who could find 3 or 4 1000 pip trades a year
  • #5
  • Edited 2:27pm Feb 25, 2012 12:03pm | Edited 2:27pm
Quoting Revstar
I know this may not be every ones cup of tea, as allot of people scalp for 50-100 pips or so. I thought it would be interesting to find out if people hold trades up until the 1000 pip mark?

I never really knew its potential at the time but i managed to catch this one and it has been allot less stressful than shooting for 50-100 pips. I am so proud of it I had to give it its own thread! So please feel free to post up your trades whether they are 1000 pipers or potential thousand pipers..

Best
RS
Nice I have the same swing trade

Now the question is where and when you will close it?

Here is my fundamental analysis as to why this trade might have some legs. I wish you success with the trade, but see if you can build on it!

For you 100 pips a day people, you are day trading. This is a higher timeframe swing/position trade. I based mine solely on the daily and weekly timeframes. Don't see why you can't do both, but you must distinguish the two in separate trading accounts.
  • #6
  • Feb 25, 2012 9:26pm Feb 25, 2012 9:26pm
You caught the right one but then such long riding trades depend on the situation. Personally I have taken such trades a couple of times but only with trailing stop-loss. By the way congrats
  • #7
  • Feb 27, 2012 6:09am Feb 27, 2012 6:09am
Some really interesting points..

AndyB - my stop loss is always the same 25pip or 35 pip depending on pair.

Mfoste1 - Fair point..

Bbakker - Rock on . I must say your fundamental analysis far surpasses that of mien. Other than the main figures published on FF calender page and maybe some basic SSI analysis technical analysis is the main way I enter/exit trades.

As far as exit goes I think I am going to leave this in as long as possible the main reason being, following on from your other point of building on this, I already took a chunk of the move with 2 other positions. see chart below..

I totally agree you can do both swing/day trade, in fact the 1000 pipper was in fact a day trade that just kept on going & going! since taking into account weekly and daily price action my trading has really come on..

Forex - thanks -
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  • #8
  • Mar 2, 2012 4:57am Mar 2, 2012 4:57am
Maybe Maybe not... who know's who cares !!!

Best
RS
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  • #9
  • Mar 2, 2012 5:43am Mar 2, 2012 5:43am
congrats on hodling, this is the way to long term sucess

cause 10 times by 100 is much more risk than 1 time by 1000

even if the stop for the 1000 pip trade was same as combined stops for the 10 100 pip trades

...

however i would suggest stop thinking pips and leverage, and think in %

(the reason that i mainly moved to stocks btw)
  • #10
  • Mar 2, 2012 11:17am Mar 2, 2012 11:17am
Quoting Killy
congrats on hodling, this is the way to long term sucess

cause 10 times by 100 is much more risk than 1 time by 1000
how can that be? if I have only ONE trade then I either have a 100% success rate or a 0% successrate. If I trade 10 times then I have anything in between 0% and 100% success rate. Now for me the second option looks like less risk, since a 0% success rate is much more unlikely when trading 10 times versus only one time.

Quoting Killy
however i would suggest stop thinking pips and leverage, and think in %

(the reason that i mainly moved to stocks btw)
explain, I don't understand why that is the main reason for you to move to stocks? So you can think better in % when you trade stocks? And in forex you have a hard time thinking in %, or what do you wanna tell us?
  • #11
  • Mar 2, 2012 11:26am Mar 2, 2012 11:26am
Quoting Custos
how can that be? if I have only ONE trade then I either have a 100% success rate or a 0% successrate. If I trade 10 times then I have anything in between 0% and 100% success rate. Now for me the second option looks like less risk, since a 0% success rate is much more unlikely when trading 10 times versus only one time.



explain, I don't understand why that is the main reason for you to move to stocks? So you can think better in % when you trade stocks? And in forex you have a hard time thinking in %, or what do you wanna tell us?

the problem is that with a retail fx intraday paradigm (constant pursuit of quick shot overleveraged profits using no common sence and some bogus tools with no real justification) there is no way to understand what i said...
  • #12
  • Mar 2, 2012 11:30am Mar 2, 2012 11:30am
Quoting Killy
the problem is that with a retail fx intraday paradigm (constant pursuit of quick shot overleveraged profits using no common sence and some bogus tools with no real justification) there is no way to understand what i said...
true, but I am not in this paradigm and use only common sense and no bogus tools and still don't understand what you are talking about.
  • #13
  • Mar 2, 2012 11:37am Mar 2, 2012 11:37am
Quoting Custos
true, but I am not in this paradigm and use only common sense and no bogus tools and still don't understand what you are talking about.

well on risk (passing by all the waiting and planning for a good large trade thing) you have more chances to loose in 10 tries than in one=)

and it must not always be a thousand pips, 600 or 500 is fine too lol..

...

on stocks - well if you dont use leverage (or at least not more than 1:2), volatility is much higher there, however its much easier to predict a movement, so basically on the dow there is at least one opportunity per month to make money, betting on some larger event (my latest one was a bailout of greece (among other things), i took @ 12650 on jan 20th and clsoed @ 13k last week)

plus there are much more hints for stocks - correladed instuments, live vix, bonds, eurusd btw, so when you look at them in summ you can get a more clear picture
  • #14
  • Mar 2, 2012 11:40am Mar 2, 2012 11:40am
in % i mean that on stocks you can do more % than on fx with little or no leverage

try to catch 5-10% on eur in one month?=)
  • #15
  • Mar 2, 2012 11:44am Mar 2, 2012 11:44am
Quoting Killy
well on risk (passing by all the waiting and planning for a good large trade thing) you have more chances to loose in 10 tries than in one=)

and it must not always be a thousand pips, 600 or 500 is fine too lol..
okay, I think what you are trying to say is that your win-loss ratio will increase, when trading longer term? Yeah, I can agree on that depending on the trading style.


Quoting Killy
...

on stocks - well if you dont use leverage (or at least not more than 1:2), volatility is much higher there, however its much easier to predict a movement, so basically on the dow there is at least one opportunity per month to make money, betting on some larger event (my latest one was a bailout of greece (among other things), i took @ 12650 on jan 20th and clsoed @ 13k last week)

plus there are much more hints for stocks - correladed instuments, live vix, bonds, eurusd btw, so when you look at them in summ you can get a more clear picture...
okay, again, this is probably trading style dependent. As long as it works, then that's great.
  • #16
  • Mar 2, 2012 11:46am Mar 2, 2012 11:46am
Quoting Killy
in % i mean that on stocks you can do more % than on fx with little or no leverage

try to catch 5-10% on eur in one month?=)
not particularly difficult, if you understand human mass behavior a bit.
  • #17
  • Mar 2, 2012 12:00pm Mar 2, 2012 12:00pm
alot of fx volume comes from corporate customers, which has nothing to do with human behaviour) companies need to pay salary to foreign workers, or to pay taxes and shit

so basically its about filling large orders (which you cant fill in one trade) by bankers - on intraday level.

larger level on fx is monetary policy

for instance on euro/dollar i believe its about fed's management of value of dollar - not too high, not too low

if you mentioned when eur was at recent lows fed moved to hit the dollar by hitting on more than previous extended period of low rates

however within the macro range it could be quite random, cause speculative// investment volume is relatively low on fx if to compare with corporate needs and larger monetary policy - currency is a commodity after all
  • #18
  • Mar 2, 2012 12:06pm Mar 2, 2012 12:06pm
btw the trade of the OP (the 1000 pips) is also to a great extent a result of the recent BOJ move to hit the yen, cause it stayed too expensive for too long

http://gonzaloraffoinfonews.blogspot...high-debt.html
  • #19
  • Mar 2, 2012 12:19pm Mar 2, 2012 12:19pm
Quoting Killy
alot of fx volume comes from corporate customers, which has nothing to do with human behaviour) companies need to pay salary to foreign workers, or to pay taxes and shit
corporations are lead by people, of course they have everything to do with human behavior. Interest rates or monetary policy will make them decide in which currency they will refinance themselves or where they will build their next factory, where they will try to find their new suppliers. They are long-term speculators.
Even if they just hedge, they might increase or decrease their activity in that currency when marco-economic things change, and that is in the end speculation again.
And in the short-term you have all the hedge funds and investment banks leading the direction.

If the markets are not about human mass behavior, then I don't know what is.
  • #20
  • Mar 2, 2012 12:28pm Mar 2, 2012 12:28pm
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/marke...aper090923.pdf

 (link corrected)

markets are about human mass behavior - however different markets are about different types of behaviour, i mean that fx is much more of a "utility" market that is far more hard to predict than purely investment market like stocks

its really hard to predict (and its our job as private traders) the utility needs of all the participants on fx, thats why sometimes euro rallies on bad us news, sometimes it falls (for instance) - cause it more depends on books of the banks in the each given case than on common sense

you dont need stocks for food you know =)


hedge funds also trade in fx more to protect capital rather than make money

anyway if you really want to do it - no problem, but i bet one will be more productive executing fx flow in a bank (than as a private investor or speculator).. bonuses and salaries are good there
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