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USDJPY-EURJPY-GBPJPY + all JPY pairs

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Mar 6, 2012 6:56am Feb 26, 2012 5:50pm | Edited Mar 6, 2012 6:56am
USDJPY is now trading at levels not seen in over 6 months after a prolonged range-bound period. This thread is to cover all of the Yen pairs as volatility returns following easing by the Bank of Japan. The first chart shows USDJPY weekly time frame and price is now at the 61.8% Fib ret of the last swing lower. Are we to have another week of unidirectional price action or is it time for a corrective move lower?

I will initially be looking for a move back down to the 80.00 area before considering any USDJPY longs at this stage. This is of course subject to change if the right setup comes along over the following trading sessions.
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  • #2
  • Feb 26, 2012 5:57pm Feb 26, 2012 5:57pm
EURJPY cut through the 106.00 area like a knife through butter. A move lower to this area would also be of interest in the near term for potential longs in the current EUR short covering environment. Big weekly time frame bullish candles as we are currently seeing do not have me looking to short this pair until the weekly takes on a more bearish tone.
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  • #3
  • Feb 26, 2012 6:09pm Feb 26, 2012 6:09pm
Non commercials are still Net long 17,257 contracts on the JAPANESE YEN:CME.
There has been a significant shift with the previous reporting period registering 29,459 net long contracts.
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  • #4
  • Feb 27, 2012 1:54am Feb 27, 2012 1:54am
Risk Currencies -AUD, NZD EUR and maybe CHF now are all over extended on their rise and are due a fall now.

CHFJPY for me looks like a good swing short for 500 pips at these levels.
  • #5
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:19am Feb 27, 2012 3:19am
Quoting JeremyWS
Risk Currencies -AUD, NZD EUR and maybe CHF now are all over extended on their rise and are due a fall now.

CHFJPY for me looks like a good swing short for 500 pips at these levels.

See attached CHFJPY chart which I have marked up. Price is seeing resistance at the 31/10/11 highs. Current move higher has moved deeper into the downtrend than any other correction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy 2-27-2012 9-04-03 AM.png Size: 55 KB
  • #6
  • Feb 27, 2012 11:12am Feb 27, 2012 11:12am
Quoting fxprocessor
See attached CHFJPY chart which I have marked up. Price is seeing resistance at the 31/10/11 highs. Current move higher has moved deeper into the downtrend than any other correction.
Well yen got a nice bid today and CHFJPY fell from where I posted at 91.15 ish to low under 89.00. Not bad for a days trades.
  • #7
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:41pm Feb 27, 2012 3:41pm
Quoting JeremyWS
Well yen got a nice bid today and CHFJPY fell from where I posted at 91.15 ish to low under 89.00. Not bad for a days trades.
Excellent :-) I'm still waiting for a deeper retrace buy opportunity on USDJPY if it presents itself.
  • #8
  • Feb 27, 2012 4:39pm Feb 27, 2012 4:39pm
Quoting fxprocessor
Excellent :-) I'm still waiting for a deeper retrace buy opportunity on USDJPY if it presents itself.
yeah longer term im definetly bullish uj. but YEN in general is going to stay quite strong imo.
  • #9
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:11am Feb 28, 2012 4:11am
We got the deeper retrace to 80.00. See the attached USDJPY Chart update 28th Feb
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  • #10
  • Feb 29, 2012 3:42am Feb 29, 2012 3:42am
CADJPY 29/2/2012 - Daily timeframe.
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  • #11
  • Feb 29, 2012 3:52am Feb 29, 2012 3:52am
interesting
  • #12
  • Mar 1, 2012 11:50pm Mar 1, 2012 11:50pm
Could you exactly explain for the next period, thanks.
  • #13
  • Mar 2, 2012 1:05am Mar 2, 2012 1:05am
GBP/JPY here!


Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.10; (P) 128.86; (R1) 129.91
very nice, good price..!
  • #14
  • Mar 2, 2012 3:25am Mar 2, 2012 3:25am
Weekly close above Kumo

Additional weight to the current UDSDJPY strength can be seen as price is now above the cloud and could be closing there unless there is a drastic reversal today.

Look back at the USDJPY Ichimoku on the weekly timeframe and you will see this has not happened in quite some time. I would never blindly buy a close above the Kumo but this is another element worthy of consideration when doing the top down analysis.
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  • #15
  • Mar 2, 2012 3:36am Mar 2, 2012 3:36am
The dollar index is supportive of further USDJPY upside. As soon as I identified this bullish price action on the USDX earlier this week there was no way I would sell the dollar. There is a lot of noise around forex with conflicting news stories etc and the USDX gives me a solid reference to see how the market as a whole is interpreting news data.

Anyone new to trading who trades Forex may want to consider the following. Are you constantly trying new indicators as a way to filter trades? Look back over your recent trades and see if using the USDX would have improved your results. If you were selling the dollar into this broad based dollar strength you may have benefited from the simple overview the USDX gives.
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  • #16
  • Mar 2, 2012 3:44am Mar 2, 2012 3:44am
Here is the fundamental analysis behind the move.
  • #17
  • Edited 4:20am Mar 2, 2012 3:51am | Edited 4:20am
Quoting bbakker
Here is the fundamental analysis behind the move.
Nice post. The shift in sentiment, by large speculators, on the back of the information you highlight is exactly why this thread has been created.

I will always use price action confirmation to enter a trade - whether this be a bounce of highly confluent support/resistance or a reversal setup.
  • #18
  • Edited 5:13pm Mar 2, 2012 4:09pm | Edited 5:13pm
Quoting fxprocessor
CADJPY 29/2/2012 - Daily timeframe.
No surprise that price stopped and finished the week at the highlighted technical confluence level from post 10 earlier this week. The question is will price see a correction going into the new week? I do know that petrol and diesel prices hit all-time highs in the UK today... I suspect Canadian dollar strength will see the level broken but there is often the opportunity to scalp a few pips.
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  • #19
  • Mar 2, 2012 5:05pm Mar 2, 2012 5:05pm
Good stuff. Any input on sterling/yen pair?
  • #20
  • Mar 2, 2012 5:32pm Mar 2, 2012 5:32pm
Quoting Cerber.bf2
Good stuff. Any input on sterling/yen pair?
I am bearish Yen but would be looking for a pullback if not already in a position or a quality consolidation breakout setup if looking to buy highs on the likes of GBPJPY.

Going off recent strength alone I would rather be long GBPJPY than EURJPY for example. EURGBP gives a clear picture on this front.

130.00 area price action on GBPJPY will have my attention.

cheers

fxp
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