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Beyond the Candles

  • #421
  • Feb 27, 2012 6:24am Feb 27, 2012 6:24am
Quoting Shermenator
Nice thread man...(not many good once on forexfactory lol)

I will be looking to buy pounds this week on this currency.
Tons of demand price is rejecting lower prices.
There's lots of confluences right there.

RN 1.59 playing as R, then there's a M R just over it, then very important BRN 1.6.

And then, above 1.6, October candles swing setting another resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-02-27_GBPUSD_W_01.png Size: 47 KB
  • #422
  • Feb 27, 2012 2:10pm Feb 27, 2012 2:10pm
Quoting dfumagalli
There's lots of confluences right there.

RN 1.59 playing as R, then there's a M R just over it, then very important BRN 1.6.

And then, above 1.6, October candles swing setting another resistance.
M-triangle and DB in RM
W-bullish flag with the buyers that closed above and try to restart under the DB pressure
D-RM....waiting !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #423
  • Feb 27, 2012 2:22pm Feb 27, 2012 2:22pm
Quoting Shermenator
Nice thread man...(not many good once on forexfactory lol)

Attachment

I will be looking to buy pounds this week on this currency.
Tons of demand price is rejecting lower prices.
Welcome and thaks for your partecipation !

This is what I'm expecting....but it won't be so easy as it looks !....the buyers are still weak and don't have enough liquidity !

Regards.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gum.png Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: guw.png Size: 29 KB
Nothing personal,just business
  • #424
  • Feb 27, 2012 4:23pm Feb 27, 2012 4:23pm
Quoting fxgroup
D-RM....waiting !
Exactly
  • #425
  • Feb 27, 2012 5:56pm Feb 27, 2012 5:56pm
Weekly chart: PB at same liquidity level of another past PB

Daily chart: bullish flag, with some possible outcomes. Price might break below support (but should be a bit less likely since we are in a bullish flag) and follow the red arrows.
Or it could break up in two different ways (light and dark green).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-02-28_EURHUF_W_01.png Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-02-28_EURHUF_D_01.png Size: 37 KB
  • #426
  • Feb 28, 2012 8:05am Feb 28, 2012 8:05am
Quoting fxgroup
NZDJPY closes to a very interesting RM R. All we have to do is to wait to see who will be in RM control.
I post this few days ago...and let's remember that we use the swing's O/C to identify the S/R levels !
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: njm.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: njd.png Size: 32 KB
Nothing personal,just business
  • #427
  • Feb 29, 2012 3:48pm Feb 29, 2012 3:48pm
WPG+WPD=
D+W = RM consolidation
M bullish

I think best is to wait, but this scenario below is possible shortly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-02-29_22-36_AUDUSD_D.jpg Size: 80 KB
  • #428
  • Mar 1, 2012 8:39am Mar 1, 2012 8:39am
Quoting Dariusz
WPG+WPD=
D+W = RM consolidation
M bullish

I think best is to wait, but this scenario below is possible shortly.
You are right, the D RM is the moment key, but the buyers are still looking for a good S in order to close above the 1.08 for 1.10 !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #429
  • Mar 1, 2012 8:53am Mar 1, 2012 8:53am
Quoting Dariusz
WPG+WPD=
D+W = RM consolidation
M bullish

I think best is to wait, but this scenario below is possible shortly.
This post are great. But at times I feel like I am trying to unlock the davinci code lol and don't see what you are trying to explain and have to just try and read it from your pic and make my own understanding of it (losing the purpose of your post). I think the key thing is to make sure everyone gets what you are trying to explain. Because at times it makes a bit harder to participate and give my opinion. Not trying to be offensive .
  • #430
  • Mar 1, 2012 12:26pm Mar 1, 2012 12:26pm
[quote=Shermenator;5434779]

I know it sometimes difficult to understand, but I am not much expirenced as a trader in forex, more as a professional buyer so your opinion is really important for myself as a clue.
As I said all comments are welcome bad or good, different point of view any new ideas etc. That makes this thread useful for unexpirenced people like me. Thanks again for comments. I'll try to explain every chart attached.

D.
  • #431
  • Mar 1, 2012 3:51pm Mar 1, 2012 3:51pm
Here some charts on GBPCHF, I hope you enjoy it.....

Very nice to see drufmagalli and Shermenator`s posts, I notice with amazement that the thread gets better and better each week.

I hope to be able to contribute more (with charts ) soon.

Good trading to all & thanks to fxgroup for introducing this thread !

Michael

Pics :
-gbpchf monthly
-gbpchf weekly
-gbpchf daily
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-01_2225_gbpchf_monthly.jpg Size: 173 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-01_2229_gbpchf_weekly.jpg Size: 180 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-01_2238_gbpchf_daily.jpg Size: 199 KB
Be like water.
  • #432
  • Mar 1, 2012 10:37pm Mar 1, 2012 10:37pm
Quoting msmarple
Here some charts on GBPCHF, I hope you enjoy it.....

Very nice to see drufmagalli and Shermenator`s posts, I notice with amazement that the thread gets better and better each week.

I hope to be able to contribute more (with charts ) soon.

Good trading to all & thanks to fxgroup for introducing this thread !

Michael

Pics :
-gbpchf monthly
-gbpchf weekly
-gbpchf daily
Looking for 1.5163 !

P.S. Nice to see you again Michael !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #433
  • Mar 2, 2012 7:49am Mar 2, 2012 7:49am
Quoting msmarple
Here some charts on GBPCHF, I hope you enjoy it.....

Very nice to see drufmagalli and Shermenator`s posts, I notice with amazement that the thread gets better and better each week.

I hope to be able to contribute more (with charts ) soon.

Good trading to all & thanks to fxgroup for introducing this thread !

Michael

Pics :
-gbpchf monthly
-gbpchf weekly
-gbpchf daily
First of all, thank you for the appreciation!
I have a list of "patches" to the method text I posted some days ago but I can't edit it any more.

Second, nice spotting of the gap.

Third, beware of that what happens as price goes down.
If you go check EURCHF you'll see SCB in action and if you compare the two markets you'll notice some elements.
  • #434
  • Mar 2, 2012 5:23pm Mar 2, 2012 5:23pm
[quote=fxgroup;5372097]
Quoting jerrythedurst
The direction of the trend is a very different and relative concept for very different traders. As I concern, the simpliest and safiest way to determine the trend is to read WPD and to trade in the WPG direction.
Maybe it seems a little generally and non sense what I'm talking to you, but is just the way a I read and trade a chart.


You gave the EURUSD exemple, let's talk about it, in order to understand better what I said above:
The M chart is in a bullish flag, so in a dynamic RM. Within the RM, I will trade as...
Do you remember this post with its chart by 3 weeks ago....let see the dynamic RM...today !...it is not any secret, it is just reading the charts beyond the candles !
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euw.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eud.gif Size: 16 KB
Nothing personal,just business
  • #435
  • Mar 3, 2012 6:41am Mar 3, 2012 6:41am
Monthly downtrend
W+D consolidation

1. M+W+D Charts
------------------------
Monthly situation - price consolidates after strong bearish force and found the bottom 1.8636 firmly. Sellers rejection at 2.0448.
Last month (Feb) small PB showed buyers intenion at this LVL.
HISTORICAL BOTTOM
------------------------------------------------------------------
Weekly 2WPB as buyers reaction to the LVL looking for more buyers bullsh flag.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Daily BUOB as confirmation till 1.9160 lvl.
-------------------------------------------
CONCLUSION

I will w8 4 RET ;-) 4 L pos. PTT+TTP

Rgds.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-03_12-37_GBPNZD_M.jpg Size: 70 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-03_13-02_GPBNZD_W.jpg Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-03_13-14_GBPNZD_D.jpg Size: 74 KB
  • #436
  • Mar 3, 2012 8:56am Mar 3, 2012 8:56am
Wow....., great charts from everybody and thanks dfumagalli for pointing me to other aspects.

Starting to watch NZDUSD, after fxgroup showed us NZDJPY earlier on.

We will see how this whole NZD rise plays out. Careful with any premature sells I would say, e.g. if you think it will go to 0.8100 then watch 0.8200 as well for clues / strength of buyers.

All in all I know so many traders who have been burnt by counter-trend trading AUD and NZD that I am now extra conservative with these pairs. All big boys and funds will cling up to the last minute for their easy money interest rate differential....:-)

Good trading to all, will post some more if family permits.

Michael
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-03_1445_nzdusd_monthly.jpg Size: 193 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-03_1510_nzdusd-weekly.jpg Size: 205 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-03_1539_nzdusd-daily_ff.jpg Size: 132 KB
Be like water.
  • #437
  • Mar 5, 2012 2:11am Mar 5, 2012 2:11am
Let's see Yahoo:
-M-up trend in RM
W-after the IPB that worked as well, the P is stuck in a bullish flag with a PB at its S level....now, all we have to to is to wait a D buyers confirmation for a M RM's R level as target (17.88 as 1° target and 19 as 2° target).
Remember, if the P doesn't respect our PTT&TTP, we stay out !
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ym.gif Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: yw.gif Size: 40 KB
Nothing personal,just business
  • #438
  • Mar 5, 2012 2:56am Mar 5, 2012 2:56am
Quoting msmarple
Wow....., great charts from everybody and thanks dfumagalli for pointing me to other aspects.

Starting to watch NZDUSD, after fxgroup showed us NZDJPY earlier on.

We will see how this whole NZD rise plays out. Careful with any premature sells I would say, e.g. if you think it will go to 0.8100 then watch 0.8200 as well for clues / strength of buyers.

All in all I know so many traders who have been burnt by counter-trend trading AUD and NZD that I am now extra conservative with these pairs. All big boys and funds will cling up to the last minute...
NZDUSD has one problem: In a strong bullish trend the pair put a LH...with a long TL as S, this makes me think to a congestion.
Beeing in a bullish overall trend we have 2 options for buying this pair:
- waiting the P at the TL as S
-waiting the P to close above 0.85 and its confirmation as S for 0.88 as TG.
P.S. 0.82 is a very tricky level !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #439
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:06am Mar 5, 2012 3:06am
Yes, very good pointing this out. With the US indices showing less momentum at already high levels and some important AUD data coming out ( tonight China with lower expected growth p.a. additionally ), it will need some very good news for NZD to push above 0.8500.

I`ll just wait.

What made me pick this pair was because I thought it is an excellent educational chart combo ( M, W, D ), where we can see how valuable your top-down approach can be, because we have important levels and with some patience we can avoid stepping in too early, up or down.....

Everyone have a great week.


Michael
Be like water.
  • #440
  • Edited 4:06am Mar 5, 2012 3:47am | Edited 4:06am
Quoting msmarple
With the US indices showing less momentum at already high levels and some important AUD data coming out ( tonight China with lower expected growth p.a. additionally ),
Michael
Michael,

From your point of view fundamental data is more useful than clear technical analysses or reverse or both ?

I do not like too much politics involved in trading and it make me nervous to watch all day long news and correlation between.

I know it is wise to know whats goin on in the world, but tell me if it is just your curiosity or real trading factor ?

I am asking as less expirienced not as an allegation of crouse ;-)

Regards.

D.
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