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Attachments: Oanda "Open Orders Summary" as a prediction tool?
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Oanda "Open Orders Summary" as a prediction tool?

  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Edited Apr 27, 2006 5:19pm Apr 26, 2006 2:59am | Edited Apr 27, 2006 5:19pm
Dear All,

Has anyone tried using Oanda information about open trades and open orders as a tool in trading?

I mean this link -

If it was already discussed, pls, provide me with a link (I was not able to find it on this forum)
... another pointless day where I accomplish nothing.
Hey alexnn,

I don't think this is a prediction tool, but it looks like percentage of trades currently open. It very interesting ... I know a couple of ppl that look at this all the time. I'm interesting in others comments about this too.

Happy Trading ...
If it is not broken, fix it until it is!
I watch that tool. It's not much a prediction tool, but maybe a confirmation. If you are in the small %, you're doing good.

And it's an in-house statistic, so it's not so acurate.
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Edited Apr 27, 2006 5:20pm Apr 26, 2006 6:32pm | Edited Apr 27, 2006 5:20pm
Quoting alexnn
Dear All,

Has anyone tried using Oanda information about open trades and open orders as a tool in trading?

I mean this link -
If it was already discussed, pls, provide me with a link (I was not able to find it on this forum)

Thanks a lot for the link. That was, what i was lookin' for without knowin'.

It my opinion, it prints out clear that you at the moment should not go short
on eur/usd for a 150 pips. ;-) - Better not short at all.

In quite times, i think it can help a lot. 'cause if all traders are long u know
it's gonna get time to go short.

But, at the moment, with various national bank willin' to shift there money
from us to eur, i think daytraders and speculators only have little impact
on the exchange.

regards,

Tony

PS: Anybody got a link, where is shown how many traders are short and long?
It shows the pending orders (stops and limits) for internal oanda clients only.

A) 99.9999% of oandas clients are micro account speculators
B) Small speculators are consistently the highest probability losers in any market
B) Trades that occur on oandas platform in no way affect interbank prices

It probably has some predictive value, but not from it's intended use.
2 all
Tnx, for your replies.

I understand from them that these pictures were not discussed here yet.

IMHO, they can be used for:

1) Determining supports and resistances (can be helpful for intraday trading)
2) Determining the trend change (when 90% of traders have loosing positions then may be the market is about to reverse)

I think (hope) that information about open orders of big bunch of people must be useful..
So I am looking forward to discussion and exchanging of ideas.

P.S. I wrote some software to transform Oanda's pictures in another form - with absolute price information. It is freeware and the link is in my profile.
... another pointless day where I accomplish nothing.
Quoting alexnn
2) Determining the trend change (when 90% of traders have loosing positions then may be the market is about to reverse)
This quote puzzles me.
Since this is OandA statistics and as was mentioned above is mostly small traders. We know that over 90% of them lose money in the forex market. So if 90% of these people are in a losing trade. Logically, this means there will be no reversal.

If the little guy was winning its time to change our position. Of course this will never happen
A truly wise man, always has more questions than answers.
yeah, i noticed that if i'm on the same side as those people in the stats, i'd likely be losing....

like the overwhelming ppl who went long expecting a reversal on usd/cad, but I was on the opposite ....

is this where 90% of the participants loses?

i'm gonna be paying some attention to that as it fascinates me...
Trade what you see, not what you believe.....
Quoting Claude
This quote puzzles me.
Since this is OandA statistics and as was mentioned above is mostly small traders. We know that over 90% of them lose money in the forex market. So if 90% of these people are in a losing trade. Logically, this means there will be no reversal.

If the little guy was winning its time to change our position. Of course this will never happen
Hmm, now I am puzzeled

My reasoning: 90% is loosing at the moment, that is a " beginning of reversal area" because when 100% is loosing then who is winning?

Even those small guys, at least a couple of them must win something
... another pointless day where I accomplish nothing.
www.freecotcharts.com shows the positions of commercial traders, large traders and small traders. Mostly for commodities but there are a couple of forex charts.

Lou
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Edited 3:04am Apr 28, 2006 2:51am | Edited 3:04am
Quoting Lou
www.freecotcharts.com shows the positions of commercial traders, large traders and small traders. Mostly for commodities but there are a couple of forex charts.

Lou
Thank you very much for the link!
Do you know may be where can I find a text data about it? Freecotcharts.com says "Data source: CFTC.gov".

But I was not able to find there the source...
... another pointless day where I accomplish nothing.
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Edited 3:46am Apr 28, 2006 3:35am | Edited 3:46am
2 Moderators : pls, do not consider this picture as ad.
It is just an illustration and invitation for the discussion

2 all
It looks like a bunch of small players wants to take their profit ar 1.2595

And almost nobody (from them) believes that EURO will go higher.
Attached Image
... another pointless day where I accomplish nothing.
This "product" is free. If you consider a link to my site a an ad, then I can remove it and only leave a link to the application.

It is a tool, and I would like to discuss the usage of it. For short-term trading
... another pointless day where I accomplish nothing.
I have emailed Merlin and will let him decide... Personaly I like it.. thanks scott



Quoting alexnn
This "product" is free.

It is a tool, and I would like to discuss the usage of it. For short-term trading
Quoting smjones
I have emailed Merlin and will let him decide... Personaly I like it.. thanks scott
alright, tnx
... another pointless day where I accomplish nothing.
Quoting alexnn
Hmm, now I am puzzeled

My reasoning: 90% is loosing at the moment, that is a " beginning of reversal area" because when 100% is loosing then who is winning?

Even those small guys, at least a couple of them must win something
Who is winning As my friend Lou Was kind enough to point you into the direction of the smart money.That is who is winning.

These professionals want your money These are the people you want to follow.I am not saying that the Information you're presenting is worthless.To the contrary But the sooner you realize there are sharks out there Who create most of the volume on the forex market.As they are big players.The better you will be.

In my opinion And this is only my Two cents Before a currency like the US/CAD {{take a look at the open positions at O&A}} Can find a bottom and reverse You will need a shakeout.

You need it to drop hard and fast So the little guy loses the rest of his money.It will look like a breakout People will start shorting.The market But in reality The sharks the smart money.Have now switched position and are ready to kill the little guy again.

You're right it's not a pretty picture But understanding this has done wonders for my trading
A truly wise man, always has more questions than answers.
Quoting Claude
Who is winning As my friend Lou Was kind enough to point you into the direction of the smart money.That is who is winning.

These professionals want your money These are the people you want to follow.I am not saying that the Information you're presenting is worthless.To the contrary But the sooner you realize there are sharks out there Who create most of the volume on the forex market.As they are big players.The better you will be.

In my opinion And this is only my Two cents Before a currency like the US/CAD {{take a look at the open positions at O&A}} Can find a bottom and reverse You will need a shakeout.

You need it to drop hard and fast So the little guy loses the rest of his money.It will look like a breakout People will start shorting.The market But in reality The sharks the smart money.Have now switched position and are ready to kill the little guy again.

You're right it's not a pretty picture But understanding this has done wonders for my trading
Thank you for your post.

Based on it and on your old freind picture it looks like "small" as well "large" traders are loosers. And only "commercials" win. And those winners basically most of the time trade against the trend?
... another pointless day where I accomplish nothing.
Quoting alexnn
Thank you for your post.

Based on it and on your old freind picture it looks like "small" as well "large" traders are loosers. And only "commercials" win. And those winners basically most of the time trade against the trend?
Well, not necessarily their are quite a few people on this forum that are not commercials and make money.

The charts, you are looking at when you look at the cot charts are weekly charts. Lets microsized that to the one-hour.

There are three candles on that chart that raise an eyebrow for me. Think as if everything is designed to trick and fool you.

In a down trend you get a down candle. The volume is high. You go short with a lot of the people trapping you as the market reverses and heads up you are forced to liquidate and lose money. Sound familiar

What if that candle was a shakeout to get the remaining long positions liquidated. Now that the little guys out, the market can go back up.

And most of the little guys are now short.

Remember when I said, most of the volume is created by large players take a look.
Attached Image
A truly wise man, always has more questions than answers.
2 Claude
Thanks for your post.

But it immediately leads me to a question:

Who has information about Volume on Forex in real time? The answer is - nobody.

"Volume" indicator only shows "the number of times the price changed in some time interval". That is it.

At same point in time different brokers will show different "Volume".

As far as I know this indicator was quite artificially added to Forex so a lot of techniques from stock market can be also used.

Isn't it?
... another pointless day where I accomplish nothing.
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Edited 12:28pm Apr 28, 2006 12:22pm | Edited 12:28pm
I would've had been right there with you before. To say that tick volume is not the same. But then I read reports that would show tick volume responds 96% of the time in the same manner as regular volume.

I still didn't believe it. So I started to study it. I have posts on another forum that goes back over a year with me wondering if I could make use of it.

Yes, it's not the same, but there is information in their just as you are looking for information. In the O&A reports.

I think this is why I took interest in your post, because when everybody else is saying. I don't think that's going to work or there's nothing relative. I kind of get interested.
A truly wise man, always has more questions than answers.
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