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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #31,721
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:01am Feb 28, 2012 4:01am
I don't understand the way that other people on this thread trade. Cuthbert rescuing when he's only 14 pips off the price and Fana performing flips after 9 pips and doing it multiple times.

If this is fti's method in action I have seriously misunderstood the thread (which is entirely possible of course)
  • #31,722
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:04am Feb 28, 2012 4:04am
Quoting fti
stil cannot understand what you talking about.
what has fifo got to do with MM?
chief!
can't average down and let the initial position run decreasing the loss futher.

regards
  • #31,723
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:07am Feb 28, 2012 4:07am
Quoting ukmanthailan
I don't understand the way that other people on this thread trade. Cuthbert rescuing when he's only 14 pips off the price and Fana performing flips after 9 pips and doing it multiple times.

If this is fti's method in action I have seriously misunderstood the thread (which is entirely possible of course)
was only a hypothetical scenerio bro.

regards
  • #31,724
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:07am Feb 28, 2012 4:07am
Quoting cuthbert
chief!
can't average down and let the initial position run decreasing the loss futher.

regards
If i can ... Bert, this is not true. Only in very high leverage it has some sense.

Hi UK, i was overtraded yesterday. But i felt a flow against me so i fliped. But i had the point where to exit. Thus i felt comfortable, yes, by flipping twice. Regards
  • #31,725
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:07am Feb 28, 2012 4:07am
Quoting cuthbert
hi Tricello

had that been a visualization problem it would have been remediable.
let me explain this way. i short Euro at 1.344 it goes to 1.3458 where i see a resuce oppertunity. i deploy some army to rescue my scout and i target 1.3451. now if my rescue is succeeded and price is around 1.3451, FIFO says i must close my scout first which i shorted at 1.344 before pulling my army from rescue operation.

regards
as per your example
short 1e @ 1.344 cost = short 1 e @ 1.344
short 10e @ 1.3458 cost= short 11 e @ 1.34563
buy 10e @ 1.3451 pee=(1.34563-1.3451)10=0.00536 cost= short 1 e @ 1.35099

so whats the problem?
  • #31,726
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:08am Feb 28, 2012 4:08am
Quoting cuthbert
was only a hypothetical scenerio bro.

regards
OK, no worries man. I sometimes think I'm doing everything in slow motion compared to others.

Did you enjoy the conclusion of the cricket by the way?
  • #31,727
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:09am Feb 28, 2012 4:09am
Quoting cuthbert
hi Tricello,

here is the specific message:

"Your trade could not be closed because you have an older trade of the same quantity on the same currency pair. To comply with NFA FIFO regulations, you must first close your older trade. For more information please refer to: http://fxtrade.oanda.com/trade-forex/metatrader/faq#fifo"

regards
Example, if your scout is 1000 units and your MM is 1,1,2, your next position should be 1001 then you can close 1001 before 1000.

Remember with Oanda you can vary your position by 1 unit and circumvent First In First Out.

Rgs,
  • #31,728
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:18am Feb 28, 2012 4:18am
Quoting ukmanthailan
I don't understand the way that other people on this thread trade. Cuthbert rescuing when he's only 14 pips off the price and Fana performing flips after 9 pips and doing it multiple times.

If this is fti's method in action I have seriously misunderstood the thread (which is entirely possible of course)
your point is valid.
the pips is not decision process
the markets volatility is.
in some instances when volatility holds to mean,rescues could just 1 pip away, but 10 hours apart.
in wild volatility, could be 100 pips away, in 10 seconds.
you may read terrain wrong 1 time, more than once means you have either mind problems or eye problems.


regards
  • #31,729
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:22am Feb 28, 2012 4:22am
Quoting fti
your point is valid.
the pips is not decision process
the markets volatility is.

regards
My misunderstanding then. I've always thought that rescuing that close to my position would result in my trades being too tightly clustered together.

I have also managed to lose a lot of money in the past doing what Fana said he was doing yesterday.

I'll get me coat...
  • #31,730
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:26am Feb 28, 2012 4:26am
Quoting fti
as per your example
short 1e @ 1.344 cost = short 1 e @ 1.344
short 10e @ 1.3458 cost= short 11 e @ 1.34563
buy 10e @ 1.3451 pee=(1.34563-1.3451)10=0.00536 cost= short 1 e @ 1.35099

so whats the problem?
chief!
it will have 11e shorts and 10e long to have net 1 e short.

11e +10e = 21e

leaving less troops in the barracks for further maneuvering. Where a preferable scenario would have been to get 10e shorted at 1.3458 out at price lower than 1.34563.

regards
  • #31,731
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:28am Feb 28, 2012 4:28am
Quoting fti

in some instances when volatility holds to mean,rescues could just 1 pip away, but 10 hours apart.
in wild volatility, could be 100 pips away, in 10 seconds.

regards
Hi Fti,

that's really extreme! Have you ever seen something like that in a pair like EUR/USD or DM in his time?
  • #31,732
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:29am Feb 28, 2012 4:29am
Quoting Baifu
Example, if your scout is 1000 units and your MM is 1,1,2, your next position should be 1001 then you can close 1001 before 1000.

Remember with Oanda you can vary your position by 1 unit and circumvent First In First Out.

Rgs,
That is true. Thanks.

regards
  • #31,733
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:31am Feb 28, 2012 4:31am
Quoting ukmanthailan
Did you enjoy the conclusion of the cricket by the way?


regards
  • #31,734
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:31am Feb 28, 2012 4:31am
Quoting fti
let me try analyse your mindset.
seems your mindset is very damaged.
you seems not in touch with yourself.
have contrarian mindset with a confused bias.
you still trying tell market instead of listening to markets.
and you still unsure of your skills capabilities.

please do not trade.
only in demo.

And please not take my opinions in a critical manner.
as i believe you will based on your mindset.


regards
Totally accurate assessment, I've been trying to figure things out but to no avail thus far, I'm starting to see some glints of progress but alas, very slow, been in this state for 5-6 years now... not the best place to be. The main reason why I continue to trade is to gain more screen time, the mind doesn't forget. I'm aware that I'm not in the best of shapes to trade but I don't know how else to fill my time more constructively so I continue to trade as hard and as frustrating as it may be. If I sit idle, then I enter a very dark place indeed and the more I sit idle, the deeper I go. No point going that way! So I'll continue to trade as erroneous as my analysis may be.
  • #31,735
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:35am Feb 28, 2012 4:35am
Quoting Fana
If i can ... Bert, this is not true. Only in very high leverage it has some sense.
chief said,

"the pips is not decision process
the markets volatility is.
in some instances when volatility holds to mean,rescues could just 1 pip away, but 10 hours apart.
in wild volatility, could be 100 pips away, in 10 seconds.
you may read terrain wrong 1 time, more than once means you have either mind problems or eye problems."

regards
  • #31,736
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:37am Feb 28, 2012 4:37am
Quoting tricello
Hi Fti,

that's really extreme! Have you ever seen something like that in a pair like EUR/USD or DM in his time?
extreme was 200 pips in 10 seconds(usd/dmk)
500pips in 20 mins also experienced.


regards
  • #31,737
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:39am Feb 28, 2012 4:39am
Quoting Fana
If i can ... Bert, this is not true. Only in very high leverage it has some sense.

Hi UK, i was overtraded yesterday. But i felt a flow against me so i fliped. But i had the point where to exit. Thus i felt comfortable, yes, by flipping twice. Regards
Maybe I'm not understanding what you did. I thought you had a trade...saw it was going the wrong way so flipped at 2 x original size, then saw that was going against you and flipped again at 4x original size.

That's not what you did probably. Anyway, never mind, none of my business really.
  • #31,738
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:42am Feb 28, 2012 4:42am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
Totally accurate assessment, I've been trying to figure things out but to no avail thus far, I'm starting to see some glints of progress but alas, very slow, been in this state for 5-6 years now... not the best place to be. The main reason why I continue to trade is to gain more screen time, the mind doesn't forget. I'm aware that I'm not in the best of shapes to trade but I don't know how else to fill my time more constructively so I continue to trade as hard and as frustrating as it may be. If I sit idle, then I enter a very dark place indeed...
very sad.
try a demo account.
no analysis.
and try lose whole account a few times.
then you will begin understand what you must not do.
then reread thread.

regards
  • #31,739
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:44am Feb 28, 2012 4:44am
Quoting fti
extreme was 200 pips in 10 seconds(usd/dmk)
500pips in 20 mins also experienced.


regards
Should have been hard to get out...

Thanks!
  • #31,740
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:45am Feb 28, 2012 4:45am
I apologize that i posted my trade yesterday. Especially that i revealed i was ovetraded. Instead of trading i should close in that slow "no" market.

Friends, i think we should decrease talking each about different teories. Fti knows what is important to discuss and care about. Regards
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