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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #31,701
  • Edited 5:25pm Feb 27, 2012 5:02pm | Edited 5:25pm
Quoting GEfx
Just read the following and was interested in fti's comments:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/...817730,00.html
I'm kind of stunned by this, and wonder how the ECB will ever unwind it, but more to the point, am suspicious that this is being done intentionally to force fiscal union throughout the EZ.
Good Morning GEfx,

nothing out of the ordinary.
The ECB is just doing her function as lender of last resorts to banks.
If she so wants to open her window for banks approach for cheap funds, is her rights do so.
The ECB is the CB for 27 countries, so i will not need highlight about the due deligence that they will have regarding the ops.

So far the ECB had not switched on her printing. So all the moneys comes from her resources from the member countries. So long as is not printing to lend, then that should be viewed only as her performing her day to day functions as her management deems required.

On, if the banks are getting addicted to cheap funds, thats matters for they respective banks treasurys and executive boards to decide, as is their business affairs and in their own interest.

Whats most significant is yesterday's German approval of the 2nd bail. Which now sets track record and presidence that Germany will utilise her trade surplus resources as lifeline for greece.

Seems Germany is insistant and determined to keep Euro alive and sacrificing her surpluses resources and reserves to this end.

your suspicions not unfounded.Is well known fact that they had declared to force the union stay valid, even resorting to treaty and terms change to facilitate the process. Is their choice and destiny.
regards

For our trading, so long as they not printing as source of funding, we need accept that they refuse to devalue. What ever they decide we respond to the situation. If they blunder then we need make haste, aligning our positions accordingly.
  • #31,702
  • Feb 27, 2012 6:43pm Feb 27, 2012 6:43pm
Quoting fti
Good Morning GEfx,

nothing out of the ordinary.
The ECB is just doing her function as lender of last resorts to banks.
If she so wants to open her window for banks approach for cheap funds, is her rights do so.
The ECB is the CB for 27 countries, so i will not need highlight about the due deligence that they will have regarding the ops.

So far the ECB had not switched on her printing. So all the moneys comes from her resources from the member countries. So long as is not printing to lend, then that should be viewed only as her performing...
Thanks fti. Now, time for some rest, maybe watch the Daytona 500 for a bit. Been a long but profitable day. Best wishes and hope you are feeling well.
  • #31,703
  • Feb 27, 2012 6:46pm Feb 27, 2012 6:46pm
my goodness.
nothing seems able support the euro any more.

will be trying buyin to the cable and aud when chances arises.
but things all looks so soft.
so i'll skip the far east session.
  • #31,704
  • Feb 27, 2012 8:20pm Feb 27, 2012 8:20pm
Quoting fti
ok all squared.

finished for the day.
its going no where
I was trading AUD today, when I read this comment I got a bit confused because AUD was surging strongly at the time or there abouts. The only reason why I took the profits and went to bed was because I was dead tired. Prices stopped moving from that point onwards even though I was totally expecting to wake up and see a strong push upwards and had a strong urge to leave my full position open. Sure it was that time of day/night when prices start to linger/go sideways but I'm just not sure what I was meant to see in order to determine that prices were indeed going to stall? Should I have been keeping an eye on other pairs as well in order to see this change?
  • #31,705
  • Feb 27, 2012 9:00pm Feb 27, 2012 9:00pm
http://msnbcmedia2.msn.com/i/msnbc/C...e_Reuters3.gif

updated 2/27/2012 4:48:37 PM ET 2012-02-27T21:48:37
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's on Monday cut Greece's credit rating to SD, or selective default, after the Greek government amended the original rules governing some of its sovereign debt to bind all private bondholders to a bond swap necessary to complete a 130-billion-euro rescue package.

  • #31,706
  • Feb 28, 2012 1:15am Feb 28, 2012 1:15am
Hi Fti,

Any knowledge of meditation and its usefullness. (I know there is a lot on the web, but I do rather hear from you.)

Been doing the exercise daily, health is improving. How about you? Hope you recovering fast.

Thanks in advance.

regard
  • #31,707
  • Edited 2:52am Feb 28, 2012 2:00am | Edited 2:52am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
I was trading AUD today, when I read this comment I got a bit confused because AUD was surging strongly at the time or there abouts. The only reason why I took the profits and went to bed was because I was dead tired. Prices stopped moving from that point onwards even though I was totally expecting to wake up and see a strong push upwards and had a strong urge to leave my full position open. Sure it was that time of day/night when prices start to linger/go sideways but I'm just not sure what I was meant to see in order to determine that prices were...
let me try analyse your mindset.
seems your mindset is very damaged.
you seems not in touch with yourself.
have contrarian mindset with a confused bias.
you still trying tell market instead of listening to markets.
and you still unsure of your skills capabilities.

please do not trade.
only in demo.

And please not take my opinions in a critical manner.
as i believe you will based on your mindset.


regards
  • #31,708
  • Feb 28, 2012 2:07am Feb 28, 2012 2:07am
Quoting Jaro
http://msnbcmedia2.msn.com/i/msnbc/C...e_Reuters3.gif

updated 2/27/2012 4:48:37 PM ET 2012-02-27T21:48:37
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's on Monday cut Greece's credit rating to SD, or selective default, after the Greek government amended the original rules governing some of its sovereign debt to bind all private bondholders to a bond swap necessary to complete a 130-billion-euro rescue package.

Hi Jaro,
because of default, Greece is already finished on its own.
There is little to analyse about greece for the next 7 years.
Until and unless she reforms her bankrupted public sector as well as her bankrupted private sector that may still be functional, she will be a dependant state. now the most important tasks is to get her [rivate sector on its feets again, so that it can support her public sector. Without foreign participation this reform is not likely to be able to even start.

so lets give her 7 years see if she can find her feets. personally , i not even want even hear the word anymore. What i am slightly worried about now is about italy and spain.


regards
  • #31,709
  • Feb 28, 2012 2:13am Feb 28, 2012 2:13am
Quoting WinwinFx
Hi Fti,

Any knowledge of meditation and its usefullness. (I know there is a lot on the web, but I do rather hear from you.)

Been doing the exercise daily, health is improving. How about you? Hope you recovering fast.

Thanks in advance.

regard
The topic had been covered already, but maybe the videos no longer exist.
I am in the worst shape i had ever been all my life.
Considering that i am still alive , i try live best i can everyday.
The wine helps a little, but whiskey , i must not touch anymore.


regards
  • #31,710
  • Feb 28, 2012 2:21am Feb 28, 2012 2:21am
i am late, but i trying to start the day.
not gets the market feel yet.
  • #31,711
  • Feb 28, 2012 2:22am Feb 28, 2012 2:22am
Quoting fti
Hi Jaro,
because of default, Greece is already finished on its own.
There is little to analyse about greece for the next 7 years.
Until and unless she reforms her bankrupted public sector as well as her bankrupted private sector that may still be functional, she will be a dependant state. now the most important tasks is to get her [rivate sector on its feets again, so that it can support her public sector. Without foreign participation this reform is not likely to be able to even start.

so lets give her 7 years see if she can find her feets. personally...
totally agree with your views.
  • #31,712
  • Feb 28, 2012 2:25am Feb 28, 2012 2:25am
Quoting fti
i am late, but i trying to start the day.
not gets the market feel yet.
lets try feel together.

regards
  • #31,713
  • Feb 28, 2012 2:30am Feb 28, 2012 2:30am
Quoting cuthbert
lets try feel together.

regards
i started scouting the euro cable on long sides.
may buyin to cable when she finds her bottom.
aud behave erotic, so will be giving that a miss.
with QE3 hanging over the head, i not want risk long usd positioning.
  • #31,714
  • Feb 28, 2012 3:10am Feb 28, 2012 3:10am
chief how you deal with fifo in oanda?
i trying its demo encountering fifo first time. can't do MM maneuvers with it. can't rescue, will also cause problem in trading ranges.

regards
  • #31,715
  • Feb 28, 2012 3:32am Feb 28, 2012 3:32am
Quoting cuthbert
chief how you deal with fifo in oanda?
i trying its demo encountering fifo first time. can't do MM maneuvers with it. can't rescue, will also cause problem in trading ranges.

regards
cannot understand what you trying to say.

regards
  • #31,716
  • Feb 28, 2012 3:42am Feb 28, 2012 3:42am
Quoting fti
cannot understand what you trying to say.

regards
is there no FIFO (first in first out) in your oanda?

regards
  • #31,717
  • Feb 28, 2012 3:46am Feb 28, 2012 3:46am
Quoting cuthbert
chief how you deal with fifo in oanda?
i trying its demo encountering fifo first time. can't do MM maneuvers with it. can't rescue, will also cause problem in trading ranges.

regards
I believe I understand your dilemma. Even if FIFO results in exactly the same positioning, it may be difficult to visualize in a trade by trade basis.

I constructed a spreadsheet where I get the price feed from a MT4 account and input myself every trade there. That way can I keep track of every segment of my position... it's a little time consuming but makes visualizing easier for me.

If interested let me know.

Regards
  • #31,718
  • Feb 28, 2012 3:53am Feb 28, 2012 3:53am
Quoting tricello
I believe I understand your dilemma. Even if FIFO results in exactly the same positioning, it may be difficult to visualize in a trade by trade basis.

I constructed a spreadsheet where I get the price feed from a MT4 account and input myself every trade there. That way can I keep track of every segment of my position... it's a little time consuming but makes visualizing easier for me.

If interested let me know.

Regards
hi Tricello,

had that been a visualization problem it would have been remediable.

let me explain this way. i short Euro at 1.344 it goes to 1.3458 where i see a resuce oppertunity. i deploy some army to rescue my scout and i target 1.3451. now if my rescue is succeeded and price is around 1.3451, FIFO says i must close my scout first which i shorted at 1.344 before pulling my army from rescue operation.

here is the specific message:

"Your trade could not be closed because you have an older trade of the same quantity on the same currency pair. To comply with NFA FIFO regulations, you must first close your older trade. For more information please refer to: http://fxtrade.oanda.com/trade-forex/metatrader/faq#fifo"

regards
  • #31,719
  • Feb 28, 2012 3:53am Feb 28, 2012 3:53am
Quoting cuthbert
is there no FIFO (first in first out) in your oanda?

regards
stil cannot understand what you talking about.
what has fifo got to do with MM?
  • #31,720
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:01am Feb 28, 2012 4:01am
Quoting cuthbert
hi Tricello,

had that been a visualization problem it would have been remediable.
let me explain this way. i short Euro at 1.344 it goes to 1.3458 where i see a resuce oppertunity. i deploy some army to rescue my scout and i target 1.3451. now if my rescue is succeeded and price is around 1.3451, FIFO says i must close my scout first which i shorted at 1.344 before pulling my army from rescue operation.

regards
I you buy back @1.3451 the exact amount that you deployed for the rescue (assuming 51 is your BE point) you should be back @ the original exposure you had @1.344 but now @1.3451
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