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B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

  • #2,841
  • Feb 27, 2012 7:52am Feb 27, 2012 7:52am
Alright I am now long eurusd

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  • #2,842
  • Feb 27, 2012 8:05am Feb 27, 2012 8:05am
Quoting Shermenator
Alright I am now long eurusd

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Hm, I picked the two 30min demand zones above and lost. I was aware of your zone, but discarded it because I thought the base is too big. But it looks great on 4h, is that why you took it and not the two above?
  • #2,843
  • Feb 27, 2012 8:14am Feb 27, 2012 8:14am
Quoting Kagawa
Hm, I picked the two 30min demand zones above and lost. I was aware of your zone, but discarded it because I thought the base is too big. But it looks great on 4h, is that why you took it and not the two above?
Well the two above price where kinda of slow and not to obvious. You want to trade whats is obvious and ditch whats not too obvious. The 2 levels you choose I can see them . But they are hiding and very high in price not a bargain. I am considering this level and one below and thats the one around last months high break. That one has alot of traders looking at it.
  • #2,844
  • Edited 9:10am Feb 27, 2012 8:20am | Edited 9:10am
Quoting Shermenator
Well the two above price where kinda of slow and not to obvious. You want to trade whats is obvious and ditch whats not too obvious. The 2 levels you choose I can see them . But they are hiding and very high in price not a bargain. I am considering this level and one below and thats the one around last months high break. That one has alot of traders looking at it.
Also if you look at the low of Feb 21 to this high you are getting yourself a nice little discount of like 30 percent or so on the EUR. So when you bought you had a smaller discount on a product . Its like going to buy a car ... the cheaper it is the more buyers it attracts. Simply business
  • #2,845
  • Edited 9:01am Feb 27, 2012 8:22am | Edited 9:01am
CHFJPY

I still keep the Sell trade, +85 pips protected. SL moved to the level of the earlier Demand zone which now became a Supply zone.
There are no visible obstacles to the next demand (which is a Swap zone, as I see it). I will try to keep the trade alive a bit more.

Today all Yen pairs are in trend like twins, so there is nothing special in my trade, but my personal greatest challenge is to stay in a trade as long as possible, because it's my desease - premature exits.
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  • #2,846
  • Feb 27, 2012 8:40am Feb 27, 2012 8:40am
short AU again
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  • #2,847
  • Feb 27, 2012 9:42am Feb 27, 2012 9:42am
Alright the trade is now moving my way...Depending on how price closes and the way demand is shown to me I will manage my investment. I will start looking to managing it.

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  • #2,848
  • Feb 27, 2012 9:54am Feb 27, 2012 9:54am
Alright stops have been pushed up

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  • #2,849
  • Feb 27, 2012 10:01am Feb 27, 2012 10:01am
Alright guys I have closed my trade took my money ...I am now done for today

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  • #2,850
  • Feb 27, 2012 10:25am Feb 27, 2012 10:25am
CHFJPY Sell trade stopped with +85 pips. The situation could be considered as a return to the Supply level with a possibility to Sell again. But taking into consideration the impulse of the bounce I will not dare to sell again. I'm afraid that it could be a bounce from a Swap level (if to look at the D1 chart).
My mistake - I missed this level when looking for a target zone.
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  • #2,851
  • Edited 3:19pm Feb 27, 2012 11:00am | Edited 3:19pm
Quoting Kagawa
Hi guys, dodged a loss on USDCAD today and I have a question about for how long old zones affect the more recent ones. I've illustrated the question in the chart.

Good trading to everyone!

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In the picture you say you've chosen the lower zone over the upper zone because the upper zone looked like a reaction from a previous zone and i assume you feel the lower zone feels fresher than the upper zone.

It looks to me like the bottom zone is a rection from the top zone, and the top zone looks to be at the top of a daily channel. Seeing as how the most recent trend was down and we're now in a channel, probability dictates a higher chance succeed to the lower.

I was in the trade off the top zone actually. My zone was from 1.0040 to 1.0053 and i just tp'd at 0.9986. This trade came out to +56 pips but more importantly 56/13 = +5.59% to my account.

PS. 56/13 does not equal 5.59%. I manage my risk based on the size of the zone risking 1% per 10 pips up to a max of 3% on 30 pips.
(53/13)*((13/10)%)=5.59% This form of risk setting is a new addition to my plan. I mainly set it for my own comfort.


Edit: I realise i didn't answer your question. If you quantify the zone using odds enhancers this is a great zone. The big drop by itself is an indication of a high probability trade. If you look back and see that this zone is a reaction from a previous then look to see how far the price has dropped and also look to see if it was a clean drop or a slow stumble down. When setting your stop and take profit you should also take into consideration that being that this new zone is a result of an old zone. Push back the stop and entry a couple of pips. Let price come to you. Even when scalping you want price in your area where you've deemed it high probabilty based on your studies of the charts.
  • #2,852
  • Feb 27, 2012 11:18am Feb 27, 2012 11:18am
Quoting Shermenator
Alright guys I have closed my trade took my money ...I am now done for today

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Great trade Shermenator !!

This is a trade I took on GU

We were coming down from a 4hr supply zone and price have been doing lower lows all day, found a nice R-B-D on the 15mins with a strong drop from the level.

The red marks shows that price was making lower lows but on the other side we were making higher highs on the last swing that created the level put as price made a lower low it was a safe trade for me.

Took 2:1 but you could take 3:1 if you let it ride with a SL of 10 pips.

Os.
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Trade Smart
  • #2,853
  • Feb 27, 2012 11:34am Feb 27, 2012 11:34am
Quoting Osman
Great trade Shermenator !!

This is a trade I took on GU

We were coming down from a 4hr supply zone and price have been doing lower lows all day, found a nice R-B-D on the 15mins with a strong drop from the level.

The red marks shows that price was making lower lows but on the other side we were making higher highs on the last swing that created the level put as price made a lower low it was a safe trade for me.

Took 2:1 but you could take 3:1 if you let it ride with a SL of 10 pips.

Os.
Great trade Osman!
  • #2,854
  • Edited 1:23pm Feb 27, 2012 1:14pm | Edited 1:23pm
Quoting Good Lookin
In the picture you say you've chosen the lower zone over the upper zone because the upper zone looked like a reaction from a previous zone and i assume you feel the lower zone feels fresher than the upper zone.

It looks to me like the bottom zone is a rection from the top zone, and the top zone looks to be at the top of a daily channel. Seeing as how the most recent trend was down and we're now in a channel, probability dictates a higher chance succeed to the lower.

I was in the trade off the top zone actually. My zone was from 1.0040 to 1.0053...
Thanks Good Lookin!

Yes, I think I understand. It's probably a mistake to treat this supply area as two seperate zones in the first place and only be prepared to take the lower zone. I'm not saying that we shouldn't define two areas there and prepare for two consecutive entries (if price pushes higher) so that we can define an appropriate R:R, but rather that... since we have a 'level upon level' situation going on, it makes no sense to only take the lower zone and discard the higher zone, right?

But if we merge these zones together into one zone, then on this pair we will have a zone that is a bit large and hard to find an appropriate profit target for... so we need to make it smaller. But if we make the zone smaller then the stop should be at the top of the supply and not somewhere in the middle... which is what I did, shame on me, lol.


The other question I had was that imo the zone isn't fresh anymore in the big picture, because I see the source of the zone in a 1d/4h swap zone from jan25-30, and price revisited this zone on Jan31 and feb16. There has already been a lot of trading going in that supply zone, I think we wouldn't be confident enough to go short there as a 4h chart trade, but is it a strong enough to keep scalping on 30min, especially with that swap line (don't know the correct technical term) at 1.0050? Chart:
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  • #2,855
  • Feb 27, 2012 2:48pm Feb 27, 2012 2:48pm
Quoting Good Lookin
Great trade Osman!
Thx Good Lookin ! Your trading results this last weeks have been an inspiration for us all.

Quoting Shaltay
CHFJPY Sell trade stopped with +85 pips. The situation could be considered as a return to the Supply level with a possibility to Sell again. But taking into consideration the impulse of the bounce I will not dare to sell again. I'm afraid that it could be a bounce from a Swap level (if to look at the D1 chart).
My mistake - I missed this level when looking for a target zone.
Great trade Shaltay !! Its always good to try to see if we can get something more by locking profits, at least you saw the level, very well managed.

Quoting Kagawa
Thanks Good Lookin!

Yes, I think I understand. It's probably a mistake to treat this supply area as two seperate zones in the first place and only be prepared to take the lower zone. I'm not saying that we shouldn't define two areas there and prepare for two consecutive entries (if price pushes higher) so that we can define an appropriate R:R, but rather that... since we have a 'level upon level' situation going on, it makes no sense to only take the lower zone and discard the higher zone, right?
Hi Kagawa,
Based on the teachings of Sam Evans from OTA, he will take the zone as one level, if your sl is too big he would have the entry at the 50% of the level (in this case it will be at the start of the top level) the first level will help to take out a nice amount of demand leaving for the second level the easy part of consuming the rest and pushing the price lower.

Hope it helps.
Trade Smart
  • #2,856
  • Feb 27, 2012 2:57pm Feb 27, 2012 2:57pm
Hey guys,

Im looking at this level on AU for a swap, level is a bit big but its a 4hr chart.

On the 30mins we have a nice swap from 1.0744 to 1.0731

Like the swap level, nice big candle breaking it and closing above, but we´ve got a 4hr supply above and we have been making lower highs on the 4hrs.

On the daily we have a flag, which it has a high% of breaking to the upside.



Whats your view on this ?

Thanks,
Os.
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Trade Smart
  • #2,857
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:37pm Feb 27, 2012 3:37pm
Quoting Osman
Hey guys,

Im looking at this level on AU for a swap, level is a bit big but its a 4hr chart.

On the 30mins we have a nice swap from 1.0744 to 1.0731

Like the swap level, nice big candle breaking it and closing above, but we´ve got a 4hr supply above and we have been making lower highs on the 4hrs.

On the daily we have a flag, which it has a high% of breaking to the upside.



Whats your view on this ?

Thanks,
Os.
I like it and will be watching this area myself. In my chart you can see i pulled 2 Fibs just too look. Seems like it agrees with us. I am not a fib guy usually but will pull one from time to time just to see.
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  • #2,858
  • Feb 27, 2012 7:28pm Feb 27, 2012 7:28pm
Quoting Shaltay
CHFJPY Sell trade stopped with +85 pips. The situation could be considered as a return to the Supply level with a possibility to Sell again. But taking into consideration the impulse of the bounce I will not dare to sell again. I'm afraid that it could be a bounce from a Swap level (if to look at the D1 chart).
My mistake - I missed this level when looking for a target zone.
Just moved my stop to BE. I took this trade off the daily chart so I'm looking for a bigger move and to hold this a bit more. Targeting 87.75/ 88 area.

Nice trade though.
  • #2,859
  • Edited 1:10am Feb 28, 2012 12:17am | Edited 1:10am
Happy trading day to everybody!

Osman, thanks for your kind opinion about my Sell trade.
Stoli7188 - you are the Champion in CHFJPY-Sell, congratulations!

Interesting picture at the Daily chart in EURUSD.
IMHO, there are levels on levels.
Supply Zone A has already played, there was a bounce (where the red arrow) and a deep dive.
Zone B could be considered as a new Supply, and the price is back to it. But:
D1 candle closed above this zone (a red line). Than D1 candle closed lower but remained inside the upper side on Zone B (a blue line). And today the Asian session went upward again.
What to do? … Where to go?....
I will wait for a Buy possibility. Anybody who sees this situation from another angle, please share your opinion.
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  • #2,860
  • Feb 28, 2012 12:25am Feb 28, 2012 12:25am
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Short PO @ 34577 on the 15M

TSD
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