vsa with Malcolm

hi everybody

first thank you ady babe for your advice......but i have another confuse about

the difference between

1-buying climax and effort to rise, the description for every indicator is the same i am not realize any difference

any help

Think of a buying climax like a 16 year old boy having sex... once he has climaxed its all over and done with... there is nothing more he can give he is finished, he goes of and hangs out with his mates. A climax is just that it is the big move of the day, week, month, trend etc lots of volume (effort) but price will no longer go any further. The point is the boy goes of... he leaves the area.

Its easy to spot on a chart... look for high volume and a change in direction. look at it on a daily then go in and look at it on progressively shorter time frames. learn from the charts.

In the methodology I use it is a trend changer a climax, intraday, daily weekly whatever TF your looking at. For it to be a successful Climax it has to have 9 factors associated with it. But for you right now, it is high volume and a trend changer.

Tom Williams goes into great detail about what it is??? for its a fundamental piece of VSA.

If your using Tradeguider you will have to ask someone that uses the program for help as far as indicators go. Or look in the manual.

Effort to rise/fall is the amount of volume (think gas in a car) to go a set amount of pips on a chart (think mileage). If price is taking a lot of effort (lots of volume) to go through a certain area in the chart you should immediately think that this is an area of support or resistance. This shows you that buyers and sellers are both taking sides. When price flows freely it usually means no resistance or support. Buyers or sellers are more in control.

If you start thinking in terms of effort vs results you will learn a lot about the market.

This of course is simplified but should help get you started.

Once again... put your interpretation first- even if it is not right- this way you will learn more as you are trying to understand something. and then you can get further corrections. Be brave.

thank you ady babe

I have chart for NZD-USD

1- I have background ( buying climax)

2- i have confirmation ( no demand)

now if i put sell order below no demand bar as you see on the chart

what is my mistake for this order ( what happened)

Not Ady but I will chime in with my 2 cents...

It should be noted that I do NOT trade NZDUSD and am going by your chart only...

Your buying climax is not really a buying climax the bar closed on it's high (buying climaxs need to close lower) and the next bar was up so there enough demand in that bar you marked as a BC to continue pushing the market upwards on the next bar. Now the next bar has some minor SOW in it as we go up on lower volume closing off the high and the next bar is down so there is some supply but not much and not SM supported... look at the drop off in volume on that downbar. Then we get the polar bear in Hawaii... a ND in a rising market without sufficient weakness. You need to see that SM were actively selling with some sellers reaction after we see climatic volume. Just seeing a lack of SM buying doesn't mean the market is weak. In this case if the market is truly going to go down after what we have seen for PA we will most likely need to see some UT's with some real selling reaction and then perhaps a ND entry. Or perhaps we just move sideways before another push up.

Really the safest shorts will come on a break of the low of that climatic volume bar (around 8382) and a return to test on ND... this way the controlling volume is above us and not below us as is the case now. The results of that volume so far has been up and sideways not down so we need to consider it support and should not short into it without a break.

Hi all!
I would like to post this chart to show how multiple time-frames analysis can help us.
The 1st chart shows euro 15min and the 2nd, shows euro 1min.
In the 15min, I see a bar(A) with high volume, closing down. The price was near a good support level so I started to think longs.
Then we have what I read(mistakenly, now I know) as a hidden test.
So, I entered long. Well, the market doesn't reacted the way I was expecting so I closed it for +4 pips.
If after the potential hidden test bar closed, I went to the 1min bar chart, there was a clear SOW, as you can see in the 2nd chart. This would, at least, make me think more and wait to see what the market was going to do.
Well, the market drop but, as we can see as per today's PA, there was buying on that bar. My timing was terrible!

Cheers!

my 2 cents
1. the test makes a new low, so it's not an ideal test.
2. the most powerful test is in a rising trend.

Hi Polomine! Thanks a lot for your comment.
I agree with 1. Read that bar as a test was too early.
And about 2, even I agree with it, I do like tests within the high volume bar before the trend changed. The reason is that it gives us an early entry, which increases the potential reward while decreasing the risk.
Ideal scenario is to have a selling climax + shakeout + test.
This was the kind of PA we had today.

Thank you!

even i knew the analogy before, i'm just so glad i've read'it again. this small examples which reflect the complexity of live make us to don't lose our focus, keep follow our believes, respect our principles...from this you get courage to going further when the road ahead is steeper, when you almost lost the faith.

"your worth consists in what you are and not in what you have" Edison

I just got back home from traveling for the last month in Europe and the middle east. Still managed to keep up with the "Wall St. Journal" while I was away . I see that I have a lot to catch up on in this thread.

The market is always testing. It's testing when it is rising and it is testing when it is falling....

I can certainly see why you would consider that interval a hidden test. What is being tested is the volume two intervals prior. That interval had increasing volume on a narrow range-it's a squat and implies that some demand is swamping supply.

With that said, I don't like that interval as your "start point". I also don't like that the test is in "air". I would be more comfortable if it was happening in a Supply/Demand Zone or in one of Liam's (and Pres) Fib Zones.

Also note that if your entry was placed just above the high of the hidden test, you would not have been brought into the market.

Bit of morning Wyckoff for the weekend

Hi HG! Thanks a lot for your comments.
I agree with you 200% about the test being in nowhere. It should be much more significant if it was in an important area, as you said. I was too quick in start there.
I also look at supply/demand, UH volume bars in the past and WRB.
Will pay more attention to the context next time on.

Again, thanks a lot!
Cheers!

Hi Ady!
Very nice chart and explanation.

Thanks a lot!
Cheers!

Distribution of E/U M30 for 29-Feb-12, VSA with a bit of Wyckoff.

Cheers appreciate it. Thought I would spend some time looking at the Distribution before the huge markdown... Hmmm suspicious. Comments welcome.

We know we are in an uptrend, a retracement from the main trend that of monthly down, weekly down.

A. here we have the highest volume of the day, the range is smaller than the previous bar with higher volume closing in the middle. Our first sign of perhaps stopping the uptrend, sellers entering. From price to go up at this point we would need to see buyers come in and move price up.
B. Next two bars we see significantly less volume closing in the middle. When we see this we must ask ourselves what is happening to all the buyers? these bars represent distribution, every buyer is met with a seller.
C. Next is a very bearish sign an upthrust, price is taken up to lure in more buyers seeing the signs of uptrend continuation and so more distribution.
D. Here we have buyers trying to rally but really there is a lack of demand, every rally, the following bar shows a lower close. Any buying is met with selling and selling gradually brings price down. more Dist
E. At E we have three bars in which buyers one more time try to rally but it is met with increasing sellers. From here price falls. thanks buyers! more Dist

F. We see price finally find support at this stage. and this is where we can be increasingly certain that this is Distribution. The CM is not interested in bringing price quickly up to the creek again. Buying is only being supported by the Public. It took 13 bars to get from Ice to the creek (at A), but from F to J it took 37 bars. There is definitively a lack of upside progress. This is bearish- but only if we see sellers overcome buyers (it could go on forever - look at ES)
G. here we get some upside progress but there is no follow through, buyers are being met with selling. Once again more distribution at this level. the buyers are making no upside progress until the Asian session.
H. Here we see the first sellers coming into the market- however price is held up? Why what does the composite man know? why do they not what all the people to get out of their longs? hmmmm
I. Price rises and upthrusts and closes in the middle (upper of the bar) bearish sign again. No Follow through. Once again there is upside progress in the Asian session. But it is very lethargic... there is no strength to the buying power.
J. Price reaches the previous high but has no strength. Definitely lack of demand showing itself. This is a good place to go short- we have enough evidence at this stage to take a short with a very tight stop- always being aware that we might get a upthrust.
K. We see some short positions taken.
L. Price reacts to L, some people are still taking longs (lambs to the slaughter) Price also rallies on people getting out of their short positions.
M. Supply Bar. Bam Price does close slightly up from bottom but next bar confirms the weakness. Price falls from here. could this have been anticipated - NO but you have been given enough warning to get out of longs and even a short position opportunity.
N. we get a retest of Ice and a great safe entry to go short. LPSY
O. Price tries to Rally but there is lack of demand as price reacts down again each time
P. Same with P
Q. we get a weak upthrust- another sign of weakness
R. we fall down to R where we meet some buying (stopping action).... we know there is buying here as this is at creek from a previous move, and there will likely be a reaction up from here. Most of the closes are to the high of the bars, bulls are taking control. Weather it is enough control remains to be seen next week. Price is being defended from here. However I am always careful to read to much into Friday afternoon data.

This doesn't tell me where price will go but gives me a story of how to trade the market.

Can someone tell me where I can find that VSA forum I have been reading about here?

http://forum.vsawiki.com/

Click register and then one of the admins will get back to you...

It's actually derived from a terminal shakeout in Wyckoff terms.

From the Wyckoff course directly:

One thing I love about Wyckoff is that he was more about formations, not naming bars more definitively like Tom has (this bar is this, this bar is that).

Climaxes, shakouts, springs, tests, etc... can occur over multiple bars and should not be confined to one bar alone. Learn the formation, not the bar.

HTH

Its not the buyers are strong, but the sellers are exhausted at this level.

Two good Wyckoff entries

red arrows denotes buying. Beautiful Jump over the creek and retest on right hand side of trading range.

It may stay in the TR for a bit, but we have a direction.