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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #16,761
  • Feb 26, 2012 12:58pm Feb 26, 2012 12:58pm
Nevermind - I just added it here.

Note - the more important Breach and Hold was the potential resistance at
33.00 USD - noted in yellow dashed.

The price has stayed above this price point and now late last week - the day after another break in Gold - silver took out the Upper DTL.

The 50 week SMA has been tested, I would like to see a move topside of this SMA.

There is always the possibility of a test of the broken Line, yet it has happened already on the lower TFs, and the area has gone into a close above.

The next potential resistance I see on the chart before 40 is 38.10
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xag weekly.GIF Size: 21 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,762
  • Feb 26, 2012 4:14pm Feb 26, 2012 4:14pm
DXY looks to have broken a mid term support.

There is plenty of room to go down. Yet much of this will hinge on the Euro.

Notice: In January it appears the two were moving in tandem, then split towards the end of the month.

Thus, I would not peg gold closely to either currency, however, the chart is showing
at current we are enjoying an inverse correlation between Gold and the DXY (basket of currencies / which is over 50 % Euro....)

DXY should be overhauled as a basket anyway. There is NO relation to the Yuan (due to pegging/devaluing by China)
No AUD or Kiwi. etc.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY_XAU_correlation_2 12.GIF Size: 93 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,763
  • Feb 26, 2012 5:06pm Feb 26, 2012 5:06pm
strong test for 1771
  • #16,764
  • Feb 26, 2012 5:18pm Feb 26, 2012 5:18pm
?



Quoting deenshah
strong test for 1771
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,765
  • Edited 6:07pm Feb 26, 2012 5:22pm | Edited 6:07pm
Yes, bounced. 100 percent this is HnS. And 15 min trend is in tact - down. Should be 200 pips down. 90 percent probability. Maybe Japan should open to provoke action. Trend is broken, and shoulder line is touched from behind. Now we should look SMA 25 and enjoy the ride. Only gap... BTW I bet so much on this thing, and with leverage 1:200, so I can talk nonsense... Ok, trend is accelerating...
  • #16,766
  • Edited 7:54pm Feb 26, 2012 7:31pm | Edited 7:54pm
Not quite sure what your position is here.

However here are a few things to keep in mind. There is more a 90% probability that you will lose the trade described due to being unaware of the true direction of the market.

1. The "trend" cannot often be seen on a 15 minute chart.
2. The trend is UP.

3. Thus, if you took a short on the M15 you are likely kicking yourself now as it did BOUNCE off 1772

4. 200 pips = $2.00 of a move in Gold. This is NOT a big move.

5. Any chart pattern for instance a bullish flag with a pole that is 30 pips in length is ONLY going to produce that SAME 30 PIPS of a target.

6. THE ONLY POTENTIAL HEAD AND SHOULDERS on the GOLD chart IS
an INVERSE H&S on the weekly and daily. This TRUMPS anything on a lower Time frame. Sorry. Also an inverse head and shoulders has the end result of a HIGHER PRICE and is a continuation pattern in this sense not a reversal.



Trading foolishly is no excuse to "talk nonsense." Please do some research or charting. Or clarify what you are saying,
Just because YOU placed a "big bet" does not mean the market CARES or will move in your direction, whatever it is...

BTW - Since the market has opened Spot Gold is up $3.40 which would be 340 pips.
All the price has done on the hourly chart since open (3 bars) is rise from the close with a small dip before.

Quoting vaidas7777
Yes, bounced. 100 percent this is HnS. And 15 min trend is in tact - down. Should be 200 pips down. 90 percent probability. Maybe Japan should open to provoke action. Trend is broken, and shoulder line is touched from behind. Now we should look SMA 25 and enjoy the ride. Only gap... BTW I bet so much on this thing, and with leverage 1:200, so I can talk nonsense... Ok, trend is accelerating...
Attached Image
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,767
  • Feb 26, 2012 7:37pm Feb 26, 2012 7:37pm
Quoting XTrade
?

This range has been tested since 22 feb...4hr time frame..
  • #16,768
  • Feb 26, 2012 7:59pm Feb 26, 2012 7:59pm
If it will respect a short term DTL, it will be the one seen in H4. Bounce could be expected @ 1779-80.

DTL H4 aprox @ 1779
M3 weekly @ 1779,70
R1 daily @ 1779,84

Question is how many pips?

Fundamentals signals are bullish.
  • #16,769
  • Feb 26, 2012 7:59pm Feb 26, 2012 7:59pm
Quoting XTrade
?

testing on 1771...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,770
  • Edited 8:19pm Feb 26, 2012 8:06pm | Edited 8:19pm
There is a CLEAR DIFFERENCE between Market Range and paring gains / consolidation after a break than an Inverse head and shoulders.

The outlined area at the top with a green dashed / grey dashed / and red dashed is exactly that. Range / consolidation and Friday's dip can be attributed to some light profit taking.

You cannot see a the true trend on short term time frames.

I have also posted the potential INVERSE Head and Shoulders in a daily view.
It may pan out. ANOTHER note. If a pattern is not there Sometimes a deeper look will show it. Otherwise if you don't just SEE IT,
it's likely NOT there.

Don't try to FORCE patterns out of mere sideways price action. You will end up in something False more times than not.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAU range.GIF Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: xau daily INV HS.GIF Size: 31 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,771
  • Feb 26, 2012 8:11pm Feb 26, 2012 8:11pm
Quoting XTrade
There is a CLEAR DIFFERENCE between Market Range and paring gains / consolidation after a break than an Inverse head and shoulders.

The outlined area at the top with a green dashed / grey dashed / and red dashed is exactly that. Range / consolidation and Friday's dip can be attributed to some light profit taking.

You cannot see a the true trend on short term time frames.

I have also posted the potential INVERSE Head and Shoulders in a daily view.
It may pan out. ANOTHER note. If a pattern is not there Sometimes...

that is true....
  • #16,772
  • Feb 26, 2012 8:17pm Feb 26, 2012 8:17pm
Quoting XTrade
There is a CLEAR DIFFERENCE between Market Range and paring gains / consolidation after a break than an Inverse head and shoulders.

The outlined area at the top with a green dashed / grey dashed / and red dashed is exactly that. Range / consolidation and Friday's dip can be attributed to some light profit taking.

You cannot see a the true trend on short term time frames.

I have also posted the potential INVERSE Head and Shoulders in a daily view.
It may pan out. ANOTHER note. If a pattern is not there Sometimes a deeper look will show it....
Absolutely right
  • #16,773
  • Feb 26, 2012 9:23pm Feb 26, 2012 9:23pm
There really aren't any DTLs to worry about now.

I suppose you could draw one on the H4 if you really wanted to but it will be steep and likely offer little to no resistance once the market gets cooking.

We are only talking about From Friday close to Sunday open which are 2 light volume sessions.

You should go to the daily or weekly and add some Trend lines there to get the Powerful areas.

The next hurdle will be pushing over 1800 which there was an old high at 1799 area before one of the old dips.

Also a something to take into consideration is draw some Trend lines on the shorter time frames then take the same chart up to the daily or weekly and see how STEEP they become. The lower the time frame the more ridiculous the lines will become!

How many pips to what???
Quoting jsr
If it will respect a short term DTL, it will be the one seen in H4. Bounce could be expected @ 1779-80.

DTL H4 aprox @ 1779
M3 weekly @ 1779,70
R1 daily @ 1779,84

Question is how many pips?

Fundamentals signals are bullish.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,774
  • Feb 26, 2012 9:23pm Feb 26, 2012 9:23pm
IF you want to trade the INVERSE HeaD & ShoulderS these are the technicals:

Measure ONE:
Neck to Head = Low/Head dip price 1521(wick) 1542 Candle body
Neck = 1760
Thus = Measure length = 1760 - 1530 avg prc = $230 USD.

Measure TWO:
Broken neck @ 1760
+
$230 Low to neck
= 1990 Target

Ideally you would want to enter at a further test of the neck - which may or may not come. So 1760 / 50

There are some other things I need to look at on this pattern to see how valid it is. Such as volume and creation details.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,775
  • Edited 9:46pm Feb 26, 2012 9:28pm | Edited 9:46pm
many post to scan over since I was last here early last week.
break of last weeks highs 1762 noted, bias for week is up from 1761-63 area.
break of last weeks highs 34.50 and the single year pivot noted bias is up from there.
  • #16,776
  • Feb 26, 2012 9:34pm Feb 26, 2012 9:34pm
Here is the mine enter at your own risk.!!!!

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi.../Gold_mine.jpg
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,777
  • Feb 26, 2012 9:35pm Feb 26, 2012 9:35pm
Hey LP!

welcome in!
Quoting lilpip
many post to scan over since I was last here early last week.
break of last weeks highs 1762 noted, bias for week is up from 1761-63 area.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,778
  • Feb 26, 2012 9:43pm Feb 26, 2012 9:43pm
Gold Consumption:

Indian Wedding seasons often set off some spot price increases.
Industry demand is low due to price, yet gold has many unique industrial values that no other metal on earth shares.

Quote
The consumption of gold produced in the world is about 50% in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry.
Attached Image
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,779
  • Feb 26, 2012 9:57pm Feb 26, 2012 9:57pm
XTrade, correct me if i'm wrong. I'm trying to sum up.

Trend is bullish, fundamentals are bullish, and technicals in higher TFs confirm trend.

Also, pullbacks are possible. We should expect a retracement at some point.

As I understand market is like fractals. Patterns are seen in different TFs. Of course the higher the TF the more powerful the pattern.

So, if a lower TF, H4, for example, shows a "mini" H&S, it could signal a minor correction. It does not mean reversal. Am I right?

So what we need to be aware of is that any pattern in a lower TF has a limited potential, and may be invalidated by any fundamental stimulous in the market, or as you said, maybe what we think to be a pattern is just a consolidation range.

Of course, my point of view is the one of an intraday trader.

But even if we are going to buy only, we also want to buy the dips, and if it is possible to buy @ 1760, why would I want to buy @ 1778?

I understand your explanation and I think it is a great advice.

My point is that I want to buy @ a support level, and I need also to be aware of resistance levels.

I think that being capable to predict how low can price go, even if I don't want to sell, will give me a better RR ratio, and a more confident approach.

So, if I see a possible H&S ina 4H, or a triangle, I expect a retracement, maybe it won't come, but I prefer not buying than buying just to find myself in a trade that goes 10-20$ against me before going in my direction, because that will prevent me to enter @ a better price, it will add stress to my trading and it won't help me to look for an optimal entry.

So, I would appreciate your advice about this. How to find a good entry point?
  • #16,780
  • Feb 26, 2012 10:02pm Feb 26, 2012 10:02pm
lol

You answered my questions while I was writing.

My question was about how many pips can price go lower?

You did answer that.
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