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B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

  • #2,821
  • Feb 26, 2012 12:18pm Feb 26, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting Shermenator
Nope had not heard of it but interesting will take a look. Yea I am use to getting this draw downs from time to time lol . Even in my poker playing I get one just about once every 2 month (3-5k down swings = 3-5 percent of account) they suck lol. So as a solution mentally I just go and look at this chart and play with it haha. And just blame it on the odds instead of the system or the trader (Being me ) . And time over time you just get use to this as I have always managed to get back out of the hole and back in to profits and it will keep you from...

"I never blame myself when I'm not hitting. I just blame the bat and if it keeps up, I change bats. After all, if I know it isn't my fault that I'm not hitting, how can I get mad at myself?"


Yogi Berra

You are in good company
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,822
  • Feb 26, 2012 1:52pm Feb 26, 2012 1:52pm
Ken,

Do you do anything with the " bigger picture demand supply curve"?
This is something that Sam always talks about but I have not seen you
Talk about it al all. Sam claims that all the difference is made given the location
Of the level on the bigger picture curve.
  • #2,823
  • Feb 26, 2012 2:40pm Feb 26, 2012 2:40pm
Quoting hotochin
Ken,

Do you do anything with the " bigger picture demand supply curve"?
This is something that Sam always talks about but I have not seen you
Talk about it al all. Sam claims that all the difference is made given the location
Of the level on the bigger picture curve.
He covers this.

It can also be said as. Where is my entry on the smaller time frame in relation to the larger.

The attachment is from one of the last pages of Ken's pdf.

It is one of the odds enhancers. If your position on a 30 min supply zone is also in the direction of the daily trend you give it a rating.

So most here are doing it but it is just not spoken of in detail

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,824
  • Feb 26, 2012 3:03pm Feb 26, 2012 3:03pm
Quoting Rufus
He covers this.

It can also be said as. Where is my entry on the smaller time frame in relation to the larger.

The attachment is from one of the last pages of Ken's pdf.

It is one of the odds enhancers. If your position on a 30 min supply zone is also in the direction of the daily trend you give it a rating.

So most here are doing it but it is just not spoken of in detail

Rufus
Forgot the attachment
Attached Image
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,825
  • Feb 26, 2012 4:20pm Feb 26, 2012 4:20pm
I am currently short in this currency looking for a quick scalp on this one.

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  • #2,826
  • Feb 26, 2012 4:21pm Feb 26, 2012 4:21pm
Quoting Shermenator
I am currently short in this currency looking for a quick scalp on this one.

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I don't agree with your RR on this... scalp or not.

Good luck though
FXGears.com
  • #2,827
  • Feb 26, 2012 4:24pm Feb 26, 2012 4:24pm
Quoting Jack_Larkin
I don't agree with your RR on this... scalp or not.

Good luck though
Thanks...when I scalp I am more concerned about my hit rate. I know I tend to have a very high hit rate when I scalp. For example I need to hit 56% of the time to break even on a trade that is .75 to 1. And I know my hit rate from personal experience and account is great then 56 percent . So as long as my trade has a higher hit rate then 56 percent its a plus EV investment.
  • #2,828
  • Feb 26, 2012 6:47pm Feb 26, 2012 6:47pm
Alright I have now brought my stop down to break even. Missed target by 1.5 pips. I will now let the trade run, keep in mind this is was a high probabilty trade as a scalp. As I will be looking for longs later in todays session.

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  • #2,829
  • Feb 26, 2012 7:08pm Feb 26, 2012 7:08pm
Quoting Rufus
He covers this.

It can also be said as. Where is my entry on the smaller time frame in relation to the larger.

The attachment is from one of the last pages of Ken's pdf.

It is one of the odds enhancers. If your position on a 30 min supply zone is also in the direction of the daily trend you give it a rating.

So most here are doing it but it is just not spoken of in detail

Rufus
Thank you for the response. I was asking because it looks like everyone is taking all of the pullbacks on the smaller time frames that align with the higher time frames. With Sam it seems like he draws upper and lower lines and then only takes the trades that are higher or lower on the curve. In other words he might be going against the trend.
  • #2,830
  • Feb 26, 2012 7:19pm Feb 26, 2012 7:19pm
USDCHF coming into a demand level and most of the JPY pairs are near supply zones. This CHFJPY chart was the cleanest of all the JPY setups and the only one I took.

I don't like fading such a strong move but this is the first time its back to this level and it is a supply zone. Risking 2%, will see how it plays out, may adjust TP for bigger move back if it starts to work nicely.
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  • #2,831
  • Feb 26, 2012 9:03pm Feb 26, 2012 9:03pm
Alright I have now brought my stop again...locking some profit.

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  • #2,832
  • Edited 4:17am Feb 27, 2012 12:39am | Edited 4:17am
CHFJPY

The first zone is not fresh.
The second zone is valid, as I see it. Besides there is a nice pin down at H4. Sold an hour ago at 90.516.

P.S.
Hi, stoli7188
I didn't see your post on CHFJPY when posting mine, seems that we have similar views on the situation
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  • #2,833
  • Edited 4:16am Feb 27, 2012 3:24am | Edited 4:16am
Alright Just woke up to see my trade hit its target

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  • #2,834
  • Feb 27, 2012 4:17am Feb 27, 2012 4:17am
CHFJPY bounced from Demand zone on H1 chart, but it pierced through it, and besides on M15 and M30 charts this demand looks weaker. I will try to keep the trade a bit more, +20 pips are protected.
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  • #2,835
  • Edited 6:43am Feb 27, 2012 6:30am | Edited 6:43am
short au, fast scalp 7 pips
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  • #2,836
  • Feb 27, 2012 6:38am Feb 27, 2012 6:38am
Quoting Shermenator
Alright Just woke up to see my trade hit its target

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great trading Shermenator
  • #2,837
  • Feb 27, 2012 6:40am Feb 27, 2012 6:40am
Quoting Shaltay
CHFJPY bounced from Demand zone on H1 chart, but it pierced through it, and besides on M15 and M30 charts this demand looks weaker. I will try to keep the trade a bit more, +20 pips are protected.
nice call guys! ....i saw your posts and got short in three YEN-Pairs

thanks
  • #2,838
  • Feb 27, 2012 6:44am Feb 27, 2012 6:44am
Quoting Shermenator
Thanks...when I scalp I am more concerned about my hit rate. I know I tend to have a very high hit rate when I scalp. For example I need to hit 56% of the time to break even on a trade that is .75 to 1. And I know my hit rate from personal experience and account is great then 56 percent . So as long as my trade has a higher hit rate then 56 percent its a plus EV investment.
I love the way you think. In poker we can calculate EV very accurately (plus minus 10% or so, dependent on the opponent's range), but in FX, especially for a beginner like me, it can be tough to guess the true winrate. I've been a poker player myself (quit last year), we squeeze out every tiny edge in poker, and I feel the same tendency in FX if I see a nice-looking setup, but for now I have to restrain myself and stick with the rules and go for a bigger R:R. I hope that one day I will find a good equilibrium.
  • #2,839
  • Feb 27, 2012 7:03am Feb 27, 2012 7:03am
Quoting Kagawa
I love the way you think. In poker we can calculate EV very accurately (plus minus 10% or so, dependent on the opponent's range), but in FX, especially for a beginner like me, it can be tough to guess the true winrate. I've been a poker player myself (quit last year), we squeeze out every tiny edge in poker, and I feel the same tendency in FX if I see a nice-looking setup, but for now I have to restrain myself and stick with the rules and go for a bigger R:R. I hope that one day I will find a good equilibrium.
Yep I agree...when you first start as a trader you dont know the odds of the actual trade you are taking (you assume its a winner but dont know exact). It takes a while to understand your own hit rate before you can even fill up the EV equation in forex as in poker its more complete data ( a bit more black and white). One of the key things you can start to do is a start a journal. Take pics before the trade and after the trade look at the outcome of different hit rates of the same investment. Stick to the same rules and only adjust after every 20 trades , once you get to 100 ( meaning 5 evaluations) you will have a good research of your system and yourself. You can take that data as far as you want..to even know what currencies you win in , or loose . What days your system works better then others, what time of the day is better for your system. You can get huge research out of your own system. At the point you are now finding your edges in the market. If you get killed in a currency kill it lol if you loose at certain times adjust lol. Everyone's hit rate is not the same and the EV equation is different for each trader.
  • #2,840
  • Feb 27, 2012 7:19am Feb 27, 2012 7:19am
Hi guys, dodged a loss on USDCAD today and I have a question about for how long old zones affect the more recent ones. I've illustrated the question in the chart.

Good trading to everyone!

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