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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #16,721
  • Feb 24, 2012 9:57am Feb 24, 2012 9:57am
Quoting Pommegranate
Math is simple, but it's not only about math. I'll give you simple examples.

WTI Crude oil trades currently at 108 usd. I can short June crude oil call option with a strike price of 200 for 0.10 pts or $100 per contract. This contract expires on May 17th. So if by that time crude will be lower than 200 bucks, then this $100 per contract is yours. What is the probability that crude will reach 200 by May 17th?

2nd example. I could short Aug gold 2700 call option for 2.0 pts or $200 per contract. This contract expires on Jul 26th. If gold wont't...

ok, so that $200 option is actually being offered or you apply for it?

And isn't it betting instead of trading?

  • #16,722
  • Feb 24, 2012 9:58am Feb 24, 2012 9:58am
Price seems to have made an inverse Head and Shoulders - can be seen on your chart, similar to Gold's daily or weekly.



Quoting bumapatria
i wonder what will happen when this comes to play ...

well see what happens on that cycle. and what price we are in too. too early for speculation - i just react. if it falls to it i look for good longs if it rises maybe a short.

i dont know lets see what happens there eh?

the average doesnt speculate price movvement its just based on past movements and some edits so i just look at where it flicks shows past price change so just would clarify it is not meant to follow price. but sometimes it does and mirrors it out
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,723
  • Feb 24, 2012 10:06am Feb 24, 2012 10:06am
Quoting forexfacts
ok, so that $200 option is actually being offered or you apply for it?

And isn't it betting instead of trading?

Yes, that option is being offered, it's traded on Comex. In fact, I just put 1 short order up there at 2.00 or $200 per trade.

When you put in an order with spot FX, PM or options then it's always a bet.
  • #16,724
  • Feb 24, 2012 10:14am Feb 24, 2012 10:14am
if we break this range in silver that makes us enter a whole new one imo off to the 44s
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #16,725
  • Feb 24, 2012 10:36am Feb 24, 2012 10:36am
hi junk gold traders

some indis to help u in u trade

http://www.beesoft.net/indicatorexchange.html
  • #16,726
  • Feb 24, 2012 10:40am Feb 24, 2012 10:40am
Quoting XTrade
Price seems to have made an inverse Head and Shoulders - can be seen on your chart, similar to Gold's daily or weekly.
hey x

a nice retrace should open the way for 1800's

1720 will be nice to reload longs what u think
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  • #16,727
  • Feb 24, 2012 10:58am Feb 24, 2012 10:58am
Hey Buddy

It looks like she is stalling a bit around
Quoting kill56
hey x

a nice retrace should open the way for 1800's

1720 will be nice to reload longs what u think
the old resistance and typical (end of the 100 zone) 1785 thru 95

I would not be against a minor correction, yet, I would like to see it only test 1760/50 then take the next half up and break into the 1800's.


Where you have the pink small line on the right dip is where the neck of the inverse H&S looks to be, so that is where I would look.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,728
  • Edited 11:34am Feb 24, 2012 11:11am | Edited 11:34am
This is all well and Good on your end, yet why would anyone buy this option if the percent of it going favorably is Slim? In that case everyone would just go and write naked shorts at ridiculous prices and hope some fool takes them.

There has to be a catch here that I am missing.... I just have not found it yet.


Next, if said buyer exercises his right to the option you wrote, "short" you are obligated to deliver Goods or the Cash = of the market price.
Being that you are naked you have nothing and would be in default thus, having to pay.

So for the contracts you are trading what is the amount of Gold ozts. represented? This would be you ultimate risk it seems.

One ozt. = 1776 USD appx current spot X _______ ozts = ?

Need to get # of ozts in representation... Getting 0's see below
or If the option is based on a standard futures contract than the # of ozts. would be 100 for a standard contract.



Quoting Pommegranate
Math is simple, but it's not only about math. I'll give you simple examples.

WTI Crude oil trades currently at 108 usd. I can short June crude oil call option with a strike price of 200 for 0.10 pts or $100 per contract. This contract expires on May 17th. So if by that time crude will be lower than 200 bucks, then this $100 per contract is yours. What is the probability that crude will reach 200 by May 17th?

2nd example. I could short Aug gold 2700 call option for 2.0 pts or $200 per contract. This contract expires on Jul 26th. If gold wont't...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLD OPTIONS.GIF Size: 41 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,729
  • Feb 24, 2012 11:22am Feb 24, 2012 11:22am
What you people say will it try again to break the today high as FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • #16,730
  • Feb 24, 2012 11:34am Feb 24, 2012 11:34am
sorry i mean FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

Any suggestion ???
  • #16,731
  • Feb 24, 2012 11:34am Feb 24, 2012 11:34am
Quoting kill56
hey x

a nice retrace should open the way for 1800's

1720 will be nice to reload longs what u think
I think in a easy look in a Daily chart , above ~1795 means W shape gonna forming and we should be wait for around previous high, and if it can't to break ~1795 , means we will see another soaring , what u think about this simple look?
  • #16,732
  • Feb 24, 2012 11:38am Feb 24, 2012 11:38am
Quoting XTrade
This is all well and Good on your end, yet why would anyone buy this option if the percent of it going favorably is Slim? In that case everyone would just go and write naked shorts at ridiculous prices and hope some fool takes them.

There has to be a catch here that I am missing.... I just have not found it yet.


Next, if said buyer exercises his right to the option you wrote, "short" you are obligated to deliver Goods or the Cash = of the market price.
Being that you are naked you have nothing and would be in default thus, having to...
There is a catch! You have to know when to short, what instrument (gold, silver, crude oil, cocoa, etc) to short, which month, which strike level. Most importantly how to hedge when the s.it hits the fan.

One Gold futures contract is 100 oz = 177 600 USD per contract. I'm getting $200 for short Aug 2700 call option but the underlying contract's (future) value is 177 600 USD.

So you try to short as far away stuff as possible, yet have at all times plan in place of how to manage your risks.
  • #16,733
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:36pm Feb 24, 2012 1:36pm
So finally I didn't keep that trade. (Buy @ 1773 TP 1789 SL 1769)

I could get some 5$,

But that triangle and candlestick formation made me change my mind.

Now a descending triangle visible in H4. Target @1756. I'd say 1760.

I'll wait and see.
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  • #16,734
  • Feb 24, 2012 2:03pm Feb 24, 2012 2:03pm
I don't like friday's afternoons.

btw, FXCM gives 1770 as pivot. Long above 1770 tp 1790-1800, short below 1770 tp 1760-1750.

I will let price do whatever it wants.

Happy weekend!
  • #16,735
  • Edited 6:50pm Feb 24, 2012 3:47pm | Edited 6:50pm
thanks kill56

great TA INDICATORS

people should check em out. im learning TA. these will help...

only problem is they are for MAC.... AND YOU HAVE TO BUY THE PROGRAM... SPAM.
  • #16,736
  • Feb 24, 2012 5:06pm Feb 24, 2012 5:06pm
Why don't you like Freaky Friday afternoons?
Quoting jsr
I don't like friday's afternoons.

btw, FXCM gives 1770 as pivot. Long above 1770 tp 1790-1800, short below 1770 tp 1760-1750.

I will let price do whatever it wants.

Happy weekend!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,737
  • Feb 24, 2012 10:49pm Feb 24, 2012 10:49pm
Thank guys, i had a good gold trading week
  • #16,738
  • Feb 25, 2012 2:34am Feb 25, 2012 2:34am
I think this situation in XAU/USD is one of the best opportunities , really good pos to Sell. if u get a minor vol. with a max 250 pip sl (~1795: previous High in Daily chart) , it's gonna be worthy trade. there is a high probability that gold soars to 1675 again , and this trade will have 1to4 risk/reward.
  • #16,739
  • Edited 2:13pm Feb 25, 2012 3:34am | Edited 2:13pm
Quoting Forex Jesus
I think this situation in XAU/USD is one of the best opportunities , really good pos to Sell. if u get a minor vol. with a max 250 pip sl (~1795: previous High in Daily chart) , it's gonna be worthy trade. there is a high probability that gold soars to 1675 again , and this trade will have 1to4 risk/reward.

Please provide some charts or any study to backup your claim
  • #16,740
  • Edited 5:19pm Feb 25, 2012 3:17pm | Edited 5:19pm
analysis please.

Doubtful.

on what fundamentals? or rather all the bullish techs?

considering we will sooner take 1800 than "soar" to 1675

REMINDER - the price just sat above 1675 and could not breach 17....

This was posted first.
Quoting Forex Jesus
I think in a easy look in a Daily chart , above ~1795 means W shape gonna forming and we should be wait for around previous high, and if it can't to break ~1795 , means we will see another soaring , what u think about this simple look?
? Confused what your position is here.
Quoting Forex Jesus
I think this situation in XAU/USD is one of the best opportunities , really good pos to Sell. if u get a minor vol. with a max 250 pip sl (~1795: previous High in Daily chart) , it's gonna be worthy trade. there is a high probability that gold soars to 1675 again , and this trade will have 1to4 risk/reward.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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