B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

looks good ...i will try a short lil higher

btw: nice indi

Hi, Sherm!

I wanna ask you has your last trade on G/U H1 high probability according to you, having in mind that we are approaching supply level on daily TF (pls see jpg attached) or maybe I am not following you guys exactly on this one.



Thanks and no offence just trying to figure it out this trading between levels stuff.

Good luck!

E/U nice level on m30

Well my trade is ok probability regarding the odds I am getting. You have to remember I am getting 3 to 1. So I only have to be right 25 percent of time to break even. Meaning aslong as the trade works 26 percent of the time its a good trade though this trade will work at least 50 percent. But I prefer selling again closer to the top if this trade fails, I would look more into selling that daily location you choose. If this trade fails I will try and buy the dips to take price up to the daily supply level

Way too much demand for this...I am on the wrong side of the market. Will start looking for longs

I was also in this short but got just stoped out.

Could you elaborate how you see to much demand?

mhhhh...a nice shooting star on m30...i am short on this one

I took it on the 15min shooting star, went down 18 pips and then up making higher highs pinbars that would tell me that they're removing the supply, closed half at BE and reduced my SL on the other half as didnt liked how it was moving, now the other half is at BE .

Isnt the area where price is now supposed to be a mayor supply zone?

Did price brake through, did I draw the zone wrongly or what is the case here?

Had set a PO for a long scalp as previously posted. Unfortunately I was not taken in but, here's what I think is important: 1) Following KL's advise I used the longer term chart 4H to determine the trend. Trading between levels. Price had left a Demand area moving to a Supply area. 2) Stepped down to a smaller TF to find a potential level to go long for a possible scalp. 3) Found that level and set my PO accordingly. 4) Price did retrace back down just not far enough to take me in. 5) Price returned in the direction of the trend heading into Supply areas drawn from the 4H and the 15M.

TSD

Tnx good lookin for your input.
Could you, or someone else, also give me some thoughts on my analysis below?

I have borrowed these two snap shots from one of sam's webinars from Rufus's thread. I continue to get inquiries about swap levels and their validity.

Why I pick certain levels and the such. I hope to put some charts together over the weekend to show yet , once more the thought process involved in those.

I think Rufus has a link posted to the webinar these pics came off of.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=213883

Hi Ken and All

I try to watch one or two webinars every month. Sure a lot gets repeated, but there is only so much you can say about S/D. But occasionally Sam drops a gem of information in there that just fills a metal trading hole in my brain cell. Like the above two charts. So simple and practical.

Figuring taxes today. My break is reading FF

Rufus

Thanks Rufus and KL for the previous snap shots.

Rufus had stated “fills a mental trading hole in my brain cell"

I would definitely agree with that statement!

Thanks again for your extra efforts in helping us all.

TSD

Yes when i first watched almost all of them i would start just letting them run in the background while I was doing other stuff. Then when i heard something that sounded new I would go and pay attention.

Plus take screen shots of important info and place in my Sam file. This is how I came up with enough info to write the PDF. Not at all a definitive work on S/D trading but covers a lot of the basic ideology It is a very simple trading idea .

So try and just keep it simple. It doesn't need anything else just learn the skill of spotting decent levels. and when a shallow retrace verses a more aggressive move back is in the works. So basically learn some price action moves to aid with your choices.

We have a great group showing a lot of information and sharing.

Cheers Ken

Hello friends, I'm new to this thread but I've been studying S/D for the last two months. I've studied a lot of Sam Seiden's stuff, read Dean's thread and of course this thread (thanks Ken!).

I hope you can give me corrections on my analysis of EU, AU, UC, GU (all charts are 30min).

bright grey: I consider these fresh zones
dark grey: old zones, will not trade them, but will be cautious around them
pink and green lines: will enter these zones if price arrives to them nicely and gives a good R:R

How many losers should I expect in a row?
Posted on July 6, 2010
One thing that can shake a trader’s confidence and test the emotions is to have many losing trades in a row. This can cause doubt about the trading system, the market (has the market changed?), one’s own ability to trade, etc. One way to manage this is to have good metrics. As Brett Steenbarger explained in his book referenced in this post, a good trader will have good records and will know things like the win/loss ratio, %winners, avg win, avg loss, etc for each strategy, market, time of day, etc.

When these metrics are available it is easy to calculate the expectancy of a certain number of losers in a row. I have just read this article and the author says:

“I have read many forex forum posts in my life, and I have seen certain people get frustrated with their trading system, after it brings them several losers in a row. As soon as it happens, some of them start tweaking it, or throw it away altogether, because they think that it doesn’t work. Perhaps it has happened to you as well.”

I have created a little spreadsheet which shows how many losers in a row you should expect from your trading system so that you can prepare your emotions and not ditch your system and look for the next holy grail. The formula is:

WinRate% to the power of [numLosersInARow] multiplied by NumberOfTrades.
So for example if I take 10,000 trades and my win rate, as proven by my metrics, is 70%, I can expect to have 7 losers in a row twice in that period of 10,000 trades. 70% is a good win rate percentage and when 7 losers happen in a row it can shake your confidence, but if you are expecting 7 losers in a row occasionally then it makes it much easier to deal with emotionally. Here’s a pic of the spreadsheet.


Numbers in the middle are frequency

This can also help in calculating how much you want to risk on a trade. If you are an exceptional trader and have an exceptional edge in the market that allows you to have a 90% win rate over the last 10,000 trades then you can make a LOT of money very quickly because you know that the expectation of a large number of losers in a row is very small, close to zero. You can expect to have four losers in a row only once over 10,000 trades – with this kind of win rate, I would be quite comfortable risking 5% of my account per trade as I know that the most I can lose over 10,000 trades is 20% of the account, but this number will quickly be recovered assuming the Reward:Risk ratio is greater than or equal to one. The number of losers in an account could still exceed four even with a 90% win rate, but it would be extremely unlikely, however with a large account you might want to be a bit conservative and stick to 2% risk per trade or lower.





Spreadsheet is here if you want to have a play.

I got this a very long time ago .This to my trading success is probably the most important thing even more then the trading system as I have more then one entry style into the market. This has also made me consistent profits in my other business being playing poker. Here is the link I got this from

http://www.keymoo.info/trading/archives/277

Hi Sherm

Super post for those willing to understand the importance of handling risk. What a great concept to understand. If we are winning 60% of the time with an average 2:1 R/R still would be profitable losing 10 in a row 1 time in the 10,000 trades. Draw down could be scary, so what our minds do with it is the important thing.

I don't know if you had read about the "Kelly Formula". Basically it is a formula devised by John Kelly to determine how much to "Bet" in regards to the edge you have. John Kelly was born in the late 1800"s and this formula was used by some to maximise growth in relation to inside tips, edges etc. in horse racing. The same concept was used by some in things from poker to the stock market. The book I have been reading has touched on this and it has been an interesting read. Again the downfall with the "Kelly Formula" was the draw down.

Ah well enough for now. I need to get back to figuring taxes....oh joy.

Rufus

Nope had not heard of it but interesting will take a look. Yea I am use to getting this draw downs from time to time lol . Even in my poker playing I get one just about once every 2 month (3-5k down swings = 3-5 percent of account) they suck lol. So as a solution mentally I just go and look at this chart and play with it haha. And just blame it on the odds instead of the system or the trader (Being me ) . And time over time you just get use to this as I have always managed to get back out of the hole and back in to profits and it will keep you from changing systems