Waste time and money decyphering a market on its closing price

Reading 99% of the shit on these forums about how a currency strengthened because of a turn in an indicator or historically price has followed its XX day average, or some bullshit.

I feel sick when I imagine how much money has been lost trying to decypher a market with different variations and manipulations of a closing price.

Anyone else feel this way? Its a no-brainer why the forex market opened it's doors to retail trading. Large traders needed suckers on the other side of the trade!

It's all part of the game though right? You might feel sick now but imagine if you did it another 10 years without realising. That'd really sting.

Yes, I painfully came to this insight myself after some months, and these were my steps:

If closing price, then it must be the tightest one possible - the much feared 1min Chart.

Second - Because it is so amazingly fast in movement, I could finally begin to observe actual, live and emergung power of the move - the leap into future of price.

On the one hand, FF taught my a bunch of things, on the other hand this mass of regurgitated knowledge glued at me in a bad way.
I have to say, it was you experienced guys who gave me the faith to jump over "common thinking"!

Success and insight everyone

Me too, and the reason I only (demo) trade the 1'. I like a whole lot of bars, to get past the need to trade fast, and yet stay flexible enough to dip in with a fast market.

There are a few noteworthy closes, though, aren't there?
At the least, there's the (misnomered) Sunday gap with its high % of retrace.

Brutalpip brings a good point about the future of price. To profit by speculative trading, we are counting on other (bigger) traders to move price by entering the market in that direction BEFORE they do. Making a profit on the difference.

Basically.. orders move markets and price action is a result of them. If a trader doesn't know why they're entering a trade, then they are supplying liquidity for someone else that does.

btw, the title of the thread was more blunt than this changed one

Emerald, this board is 99% suckers. I read these forums now for the amusement. Ridiculous "systems", hare-brained ideas as to why the market is moving at such and such a time....its absolute madness. Trading for profit as a retail trader is about simplicity. So simple, it seems idiotic. But...there it is. And trying to "understand" why the price is where it is is foolish. Just ride it around.

If you try and predict which way the market is going to go you are going to lose your underpants and more. None of us, and I can gaurantee you this, are world class economsts with hoardes of analysts and billion dollar computer equipment at our disposal. And even then , if they have all this, they are still guesing and they are still getting it wrong 99% of the time. Just listen to the "Economists" on CNBC, they will say, if it goes higher than A then it will probably go up to B, But if it goes down to X then expect it to go down to Y,

And these Guy's earn 6 figure salaries to tell me nothing, I mean nothing at all.

Have your trading system and stick to it, risk no more than 2% and go for a 2:1 or 3:1 risk reward ratio and you will be OK, dont try and predict which way the market is going to go, you will fail 99% of the time.

Regarding your first statement...
The big boys are on both sides of your trade at all times. Even the majority of them don't profit, and rely solely on their 3% (or whatever the commission cut is). It is a common misconception that big money = smart money. Whether or not you enter before or after they do is irrelevant. There are also various levels of position traders, and its best to know which one you are trying to follow; i.e. investment length, intraday-only length, etc.
On 2nd paragraph...worded very simplistically but I think your trying to say something...not quite sure what.

No one can predict price based on where it's been historically but orders and their trader's intentions are much more predictable. Its whats going on behind the chart that opens the door to profitability.

Say you're buying off a trendline bouce.. or any other technical indication. It works well sometimes, other times it fails. The 'setup' can look exactly the same but the order structure is the dynamic variable. Large traders know this and will purposely trap or stophunt uninformed traders on the wrong side of the trade by manipulating price.

It isn't done for fun, but its a competition for liquidity. If you're one of the big guys, you can enter a larger long position with buy limits via technical trader's sell stops. That way price won't move much, which translates to saving on buying costs.

Emerald, thank you giving me a yes for my studies. This forum is my only contact to traders, thanks.

You can predict the price nicely if you want to do it.
I do it by comparing the sides. If I see that the bears push and push, but get worse results everytime, and suddenly bulls are electrified as if a godly power guided them, I unfallably "predict" that price knows only one direction for the next hours. Sounds provocative, yes, so check your charts
TL Fib or pivots are a possible resistance points once reached, but I don't care. If they are, price will tell me, and I will wait for price to speak.


Amazing explanation of using the small guy's stops by Emerald!

Green numbers and emerald eyes everyone