Yet another trading journal

We've just closed our gbpusd buys, the setup is still valid, however time to have a break, enough trading for today.
+3.5% on this one.

Buy again, 37x

Update:
The trade has been closed, +1%

Hello, we open the trading day with a buy on audusd, the pair just standing on the lows of yesterday, we may see the break of 1.0630 today, however now the conditions are somehow oversold so a bounce to the nearterm resistance can be expected, we bought at market price (25x).


Update:
AUD Wage Price Index q/q in 25 minutes from now, this may be a fast trade.
Alternatively, price may drop on this news and we may add more on the bigger support (i would prefer the first scenario, a straight upmove to our target point).

We continue to buy as low as possible, 35x the account balance bought for now, will buy more on 1.0630 area if reached.

37x now, the Aud Wage Price Index was better than expected, market still very oversold, a straight upmove can happen on any moment (in my opinion), we keep our target at 1.0700 and wait

Trade Update:

1.0630 has been taken out, we've added the last buys there and some along the way, more to comes.. (42x exposure)
Update: the situation is starting to become important


Update:
The break of 1.0630 have triggered a bigger corrective structure, as show in the image below.
We're considering the idea to use 1.0700 as action point, and target the bigger pattern setup (with target at 1.0815), let's see.. for now just a thought, the tp remain at 1.0700


Final (?) Update:
We've moved our target at 1.0815, total exposure 47x at the moment, hard to think about buy anymore regardless of what price will do, we may move stop to b/e or close part/full positions at 1.0700

We just take our profit at 1.0680.
Why? Not technical reasons here, london open is near, the price slightly overbought, the exposure big.. looks like a good opportunity to take the profits.
+8% on this one.

Maybe may enter back later, a little break from trading now.

Ok, here we are again, buying audusd, targeting always 1.0700, exposure now 27.5x. May add more if price go down

Update: target just moved to 1.0730.
33x exposure now

Gold Trade:
This one looks a good buy opportunity!
20x exposure.

Just a thought on the current exposure, with 33x on audusd and 20.5x on gold (gold volatility is bigger than the currency pairs, so 20.5x is to be considered a strong exposure) added together make the situation somehow important, we'll look closely market activity and take actions if needed.

Update:
Audusd 36.5x
Gold 21.5x

Update:
Some movements in the markets right now, action points (when to put stop to b/e) sets as follow:
Gold: 1757.45
AudUsd: 1.0685

So we've closed our gold trade, looks like no major upmoves today, just closed it on a mid-resistance. +5% on this one.

The AudUsd trade remain open, more to comes.

EurChf pair is entering on a great support territory, an ideal buy-trade!
We miss this one as our exposure on AudUsd is already important and let's avoid riskious situations (like today with both audusd and gold trades opened, individually was not a real problem, but summing the exposure the situation was somehow critical, that's mainly why we closed the gold trade as soon as we had a good exit-area, as i written in the first post of this thread, the over-exposure/overleverage is what in past gived us problems, problems that we try to avoid now).

However, whenever we will be able to get out from the aud trade or just set the stops to b/e, we may look again to the eurchf pair and see if still buy-opportunity is present.

Gold Update:
Gold have just jumped, such a big profit left on the market, no words..
That's ok, i hope somebody profited out of it!

Thank you for this Journal. I think it is very interesting, and most of your short term analysis seems to be in line with what really Happens.

About EurChf - this pair has ADR of 25 - so why you should bother trading it?

Hello, thanks for your post, you are right the volatility of eurchf at the moment is somehow ridiculous, however looking on a bigger prespective, the pair is just standing on a big support, and i guess this is a very big accumulation phase.
When (when???) the price will finish the accumulation process, it will probably go to the resistance area at 1.2450, and is 400pips "safe" trade, also thanks to the snb 1.20 floor (technically if we enter now for example, the max drawdown would be 60pips, with an expected profit of 400pips, not bad!).
And once reached the 1.2450 area, it may call for the next bigger resistance at 1.3200.

However, analyzing the past of this pair, it happened that such a little volatility accumulation last for 2-3 months, and is not really funny to stay waiting for something that may take months.
On the other hand, it's now almost 2 months that price is in such accumulation process, an escalation of volatility may happen at any time soon.

Just looking the chart i wasn't able to resist, just bought 30x, a trade "set and forget", targeting 1.2450.

Very interesting fact is that the pair is now finding a minor support inside the big support, this second phase may bring it to 1.2030 to catch some stops (would be perfect to add again there, if happen), but looks like a perfect entry point (4h chart for this last sentence).

We'll see in the next days/weeks.

Trade Update:
AudUsd, price reached a mid-resistance, we put the stops to 1.0655 to protect from further declines (improbable, but if there will be a new decline this time can be a huge one, not worth the risk to stay in the market with buys).

So, the probability of be stopped out is huge (price just 10pips away from stoplosses), on the other hand what we want now is see a short-squeeze activity, in such case our stops would be safe.
Our targets stand on the 1.0815 area, i really doubt the positions will survive to the stops.


*** Update:
Nah i closed them all at market price, +5%.

Update2:
Price spiking up, stops would had not been hitten! This remind me our gold trade, profits left on the table eheh

GbpUsd standing on a mid-resistance, we look for trend continuation and eventually catch some stops at 1.5644.
25x

Update: 37x now

An update on the cable trade:

Just set the action point (where once reached our stops will be moved to b/e) to 1.5678, exposure now stand to 38x, even if may not looks like that, this can be a riskious trade, the pair can eventually short-squeeze and turn back to 1.5800 area, but personally i think the chances of such scenario are very low.

Said this, the usd is oversold, and this is a good thing for our gbpusd short trade, soo good that i'm evaluating the idea to target 1.5530 area, but for now is just a remote idea.


Update: 40x current exposure, we just removed our targets and moved the action-point to 1.5650, plans may change with time

I'm not going to forecast nothing, but personally i think that a scenario that see the current eurusd strenght and the usd weakness in general is exactly a great long-term opportunity, and i mean act against such strenght and weakness.
The usd weakness may be nothing but the final leg of a big accumulation process, and viceversa for the eur.
Said this, we may probably see eurusd at 1.2950 before realize what happened, on the other side this is just a bizzarre idea, but the fact that such scenario is possible just let me remove the targets from our gbpusd sells, just in case.

Update:
49x now, the situation is starting to become important.

The situation is now important, basically the level of risk is medium-high at the moment:

1) our exposure to the market is on all-time high on this account, we have a strong exposure on the eurchf (33x) and on gbpusd (50x), we may close part of our trades depending on the future market activity.

2) the GbpUsd setup is still riskious, a short-squeeze is unlikely but possible.

On the other hand, at the moment everything proceed as per plan, and no real worries on the way.

More to comes.

Well, analyzing the situation on gbpusd, looks like shorts are getting squeezed (or better, usd longs are getting squeezed).

No matter how much the pair can be overbought, these are the kind of situations that i've written about in some post, when market act on an erratic way, and the normal technical rules are temporanely not observed.

Said this, and considering our exposure, the idea of an emergency exit (consistent loss) start to arise.
Nothing decided yet, but the emergency scenario can be triggered at any time, depending on market behaviour.

The only scenario at the moment that will not trigger the emergency plan is just a scenario where the pair drop to its lows very fastly and very decisively, a possible scenario but as i said market is not really acting in a normal way, we was expecting an end of the current correction, instead it seems that market is just targeting 1.5810 area, and with an exposure of 6% every 10 pips we really can't afford market to go against us any longer.

We stay ready to take the loss, that's all for now.

And after the previous sad and dramatic post, an image that somehow explain why we still are in the trade.