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  • #201
  • Apr 27, 2006 10:06pm Apr 27, 2006 10:06pm
Thanks a lot Merlin
  • #202
  • Apr 27, 2006 10:10pm Apr 27, 2006 10:10pm
By the way, could it actually come out BEFORE the time listed or only after? I'd like to get a little shuteye here before the announcement if I can be sure it wont come before the time provided.
  • #203
  • Apr 27, 2006 11:59pm Apr 27, 2006 11:59pm
Hmm, it seems they can finish the meetings earlier than expected too Oh well, they announced no change anyway and I got some sleep I'll know where to check next time at least, thanks again Merlin.
  • #204
  • May 5, 2006 1:08pm May 5, 2006 1:08pm
Quoting Isotonic
so for buying the yen you could of started scaling in from feb once you saw a clear break rather than you did last year (merlin)...same might of been true for bonds as well.
right, that was the play. as you mentioned, i did the same damn thing with my bond position last year. both trades turned out well but i had to endure a long timeframe. the thing about the yen though is that i waited a long ass time but the position never really moved against me. that dulled the pain quite a bit. man i need to you keep me from pulling the trigger for a few months on my next big idea!

but enough talk about pain, did you see the yen today? of course it is a dollar related move today, but its clear that the BOJ is not there anymore. a few months ago they would have never let the yen move like that.
Relax and be happy.
  • #205
  • May 5, 2006 1:21pm May 5, 2006 1:21pm
so whats the price target on this yen? im thinking 110.00 on the USDJPY looks like a nice exit. it could go further, but i looks like it will at least take a breather at that level, and i can further analyze the fundamentals to see if i want to keep riding it.
Relax and be happy.
  • #206
  • May 5, 2006 1:25pm May 5, 2006 1:25pm
Quoting narafa
In the case of Japan, yes, it is an advantage to keep the value of the currency low, because Japan is an exporter, thus when keeping the value of the Yen lower, their exports to the US are cheap...When the Yen rallies, exporters get hurt because their products are more expensive now, that's why the BOJ interferes in the currency market to keep the Yen down within a certain range...


Thanks,

Nader
yeah the japanese sure do love a good balance sheet!
Relax and be happy.
  • #207
  • May 5, 2006 1:28pm May 5, 2006 1:28pm
Quoting merlin

but enough talk about pain, did you see the yen today? of course it is a dollar related move today, but its clear that the BOJ is not there anymore. a few months ago they would have never let the yen move like that.
Hi Merlin, just a point of info...

BOJ was closed today for "Children's Day Holiday"

B
  • #208
  • May 5, 2006 1:35pm May 5, 2006 1:35pm
oh we have a comedian on the boards now! :
Relax and be happy.
  • #209
  • May 5, 2006 1:48pm May 5, 2006 1:48pm
???

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/list/holi/holi.htm

I'm not sure if you're saying "Yeah the doors may be closed but they are still working." Or you just didn't know.

  • #210
  • May 6, 2006 9:57am May 6, 2006 9:57am
I can't seem to find it.
  • #211
  • May 6, 2006 10:05am May 6, 2006 10:05am
Quoting Bemac
???

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/list/holi/holi.htm

I'm not sure if you're saying "Yeah the doors may be closed but they are still working." Or you just didn't know.

i was saying "of course i knew that it was Childrens Day, that was on the FF calendar!". thought you were messing with me:
Relax and be happy.
  • #212
  • May 6, 2006 10:08am May 6, 2006 10:08am
Quoting Isotonic
ok while i've got my thinking cap on...

i don't know how many other traders watch these short interest rate charts but to me they seem invaluable to determine when central banks may act on their currencies. the value for fundies has been obvious to me for a while now but i'm surprised nobody else is really paying attention to these charts (could be wrong on this).

for example on the eurodollar i haven't seen a single case of where the futures have been wrong in one year now. not one month. so i wonder why more technician's don't look at them?
im with you buddy, short term rates are always on my screen. if i see a move, and im wondering to myself "is this move 'for real'?", i just look at the bonds. if bonds are moving it puts an exclamaion point on the currency move.
Relax and be happy.
  • #213
  • May 6, 2006 10:14am May 6, 2006 10:14am
i think iso was doing some organizing for us (thanks buddy!), combined a few threads together to present a single topic. i found the thread here...

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=3272
Relax and be happy.
  • #214
  • May 6, 2006 10:16am May 6, 2006 10:16am
damn iso im admiring your work on this, youve gotten pretty good with the "merge" feature. i dont think i could have pulled that one off!
Relax and be happy.
  • #215
  • May 6, 2006 10:24am May 6, 2006 10:24am
Well Merlin and Iso, that's another one. I keep a folder of stuff I have found throughout the forums.. from you and others... I recall you told someone a while ago that there were tons of nuggets of trading advise dispersed through out the forums, and here is another one...
Thanks Scott


Quoting merlin
im with you buddy, short term rates are always on my screen. if i see a move, and im wondering to myself "is this move 'for real'?", i just look at the bonds. if bonds are moving it puts an exclamaion point on the currency move.
  • #216
  • May 6, 2006 12:33pm May 6, 2006 12:33pm
Quoting merlin
im with you buddy, short term rates are always on my screen. if i see a move, and im wondering to myself "is this move 'for real'?", i just look at the bonds. if bonds are moving it puts an exclamaion point on the currency move.

What are the t-note and bonds to monitor ?
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #217
  • May 6, 2006 12:55pm May 6, 2006 12:55pm
Quoting compro99
What are the t-note and bonds to monitor ?
yeah,and where can we watch short term interest rates change and stuff?and that futures stuff never being wrong,can you explain a bit more Iso?
  • #218
  • May 6, 2006 6:59pm May 6, 2006 6:59pm
Quoting compro99
What are the t-note and bonds to monitor ?
5yr treasury futures symbol: FV
2yr treasury futures symbol: TU
fed funds (4 week) futures symbol: FF
Relax and be happy.
  • #219
  • Edited 4:12am May 7, 2006 4:05am | Edited 4:12am
I wouldn't say that futures are never wrong, just that my observation of them anticipating the fed was always correct form last year when I started looking at them.

To read the short term interest charts, here's where I went (from post #6):

CBOT has some good articles that might be worth a read. In particular look for the "Anticipating Fed Action" from the list on this page:
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1178,00.html

Cbot has had a ton of good stuff on futures worth reading, (although I haven't got through all of it yet).

The charts I get from:
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/menu.html

for usd look for euro-dollar chart.
for jpy look for euro-yen chart.
for gbp look for short sterling chart.
euro isn't on but google for ecb and euribor chart.

Also there are futher discussions at:
Treasuries (bonds) thread in Stocks & Futures section and
Merlin's journal.

Quoting Alex
yeah,and where can we watch short term
interest rates change and stuff?and that futures stuff never being wrong,can you explain a bit more Iso?
  • #220
  • May 13, 2006 2:13pm May 13, 2006 2:13pm
iso, im not so sure i would short euro vs. the yen. the euro is very strong right now. the dollar is the weak currency.

my long yen position was mostly in currency futures, so it was similar to the USDJPY (just a mirror image). ive already taken some profits, when the USDJPY was around 109.50. i still have about 30% of my position left, and i am on the way out of this trade.

like i said earlier, i will watch what the market does over the next couple weeks to see if i want to ride the yen a little longer, but for now we have had an excellent move and i am in the mood for some profit taking after a long hard winter.
Relax and be happy.
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