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  • #181
  • Edited 10:12pm Apr 24, 2006 10:03pm | Edited 10:12pm
Quoting smjones
Wasn't it also a PAP trade haven't I seen you in the PF? Scott

Thanks, though It was half trade and half gamble... But it beats the slotmachines...

Scott

This would have been a good trade here too...
Yes, it was, but I didn't take it. Having 10pip spread on that pair make me think twice before I do anything.
  • #182
  • Apr 24, 2006 10:04pm Apr 24, 2006 10:04pm
Quoting smjones
Wasn't it also a PAP trade haven't I seen you in the PF? Scott

Thanks, though It was half trade and half gamble... But it beats the slotmachines...

Scott

This would have been a good trade here too...
Yes, it was, but I haven't taken it. Having 10pip spread on that pair, makes me think twice before I do anything.
  • #183
  • Apr 24, 2006 10:07pm Apr 24, 2006 10:07pm
Quoting smjones
Wasn't it also a PAP trade haven't I seen you in the PF? Scott

Thanks, though It was half trade and half gamble... But it beats the slotmachines...

Scott

This would have been a good trade here too...
Too many Yen bulls ranting and raving ... JPY due for a correction ... so:

long USDJPY 114.54 Reason: at -233 fib on Vegas 1 hr chart, multiple + divergences on multiple timeframes from 4 hr on down, and at Gann fan from 1/12/06 on daily chart. Tight stop ...

Long EURJPY 141.71 Reason: at -233 fib on Vegas 1 hr chart, multiple + divergences on multiple timeframes from 4 hr on down. Loose stop ...

Long CHFJPY 90.25 Reason: to keep the other two pairs company in some as they work for pips ... farily loose stop.

Cheers,
EZ
  • #184
  • Apr 24, 2006 10:16pm Apr 24, 2006 10:16pm
Sorry about that I pressed the wrong button and edited you msg when I wanted to reply...

The 10 pip spread does not seem so much on a 550+pip trade. However I thought it would probably only go to the tunnel.

ps I am still enjoying your idea on the Avatar I still go back to that wbe site.
For a me that's better than porn. World's largest engine 109,000 horsepower... sorry, I am getting too worked up...LOL

Scott




Quoting raczekfx
Yes, it was, but I didn't take it. Having 10pip spread on that pair make me think twice before I do anything.
  • #185
  • Apr 24, 2006 10:21pm Apr 24, 2006 10:21pm
I agree, I think a bounce is in order. that is why I think I will close out now with +563. I don't have the inclination to long though.

Ps, out of curiosity, why do you usually include a combo pair (removing the usd) like EURJPY or EURCHF... is it a hedge on the two dollar trades?
I am not familiar with this approach...



Quoting ezcurrency
Too many Yen bulls ranting and raving ... JPY due for a correction ... so:

long USDJPY 114.54 Reason: at -233 fib on Vegas 1 hr chart, multiple + divergences on multiple timeframes from 4 hr on down, and at Gann fan from 1/12/06 on daily chart. Tight stop ...

Long EURJPY 141.71 Reason: at -233 fib on Vegas 1 hr chart, multiple + divergences on multiple timeframes from 4 hr on down. Loose stop ...

Long CHFJPY 90.25 Reason: to keep the other two pairs company in some as they work for pips ... farily loose stop.

Cheers,
EZ
  • #186
  • Apr 24, 2006 10:58pm Apr 24, 2006 10:58pm
Is it an advantage to keep the value of your country's currency low?
  • #187
  • Apr 24, 2006 11:17pm Apr 24, 2006 11:17pm
Quoting smjones
I agree, I think a bounce is in order. that is why I think I will close out now with +563. I don't have the inclination to long though.

Ps, out of curiosity, why do you usually include a combo pair (removing the usd) like EURJPY or EURCHF... is it a hedge on the two dollar trades?
I am not familiar with this approach...
SMJones,

I sometimes do that, to mitigate direction risk ... I am just starting to experiment with various trade combinations.

For example (I just tried these in demo account, not my live account):

Basket #1:

Long USDJPY, Short EURJPY, Long EURUSD ... net position: 0

Basket #2: Long USDJPY, Long CADJPY, Long CHFJPY, Short EURJPY, Long EURUSD ... net position long 1 CAD, long 1 CHF, short 2 JPY

either of these baskets should not move much if $ moving news comes out ... hence mitigating $ direction risk.

Basket #1 mitigates all direction currency risk (theoretically), while costing some interest payment every day ...

Basket #2 bets on CAD and CHF strengthening, while JPY weakening, and also earns positive interest each day ...

All of this is still in the research phase ... we'll see what happens.

EZ
  • #188
  • Apr 25, 2006 12:19am Apr 25, 2006 12:19am
USDJPY, entered on break of a 4-hr trendline @ 117.29. I went to bed and didn't think It would break out of the weekly squeeze so soon (weekly trendline is also on the chart). From the chart you can tell I just wanted it to reach the lower trendline. When the market opened over the weekend I was pretty happy I took profit when it got close to last month's low. I wanted to play a monthly breakout after that but got stuck doing other things. Now I'm waiting for a bounce.
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  • #189
  • Apr 25, 2006 2:33am Apr 25, 2006 2:33am
Quoting merlin
LOL!!!

oh you guys know i was happy today! the yen looked like it had a rocket on its back!!

the BOJ has finally given up their yen suppression campaign! the fiscal year ended last month and now they wont give a damn for a while. so the yen inflates, and there is no one there to let the air out! and i am betting it will continue to explode from here, look at the chart it looks like the seller is just exhausted as hell!

now lets see if the USDJPY can break this 114.00 support...
Hi Merlin,


Why 114.00 is support? Big figure???
kiss the trend
  • #190
  • Apr 25, 2006 6:09am Apr 25, 2006 6:09am
Quoting smjones
I have had a short on GBPJPY.... Cuz I was listening to you Merlin. And it's LIVE baby.. so I"M a happy camper too... Scott
haha! glad to hear it baby! just be careful with the 'listening to Merlin', that bum can get you in trouble sometimes
Relax and be happy.
  • #191
  • Apr 25, 2006 6:14am Apr 25, 2006 6:14am
Well actually the trade looked good on it's own meret. I posted a graph. you you pushed me off the fence... Scott



Quoting merlin
haha! glad to hear it baby! just be careful with the 'listening to Merlin', that bum can get you in trouble sometimes
  • #192
  • Apr 25, 2006 6:21am Apr 25, 2006 6:21am
Quoting smjones
Well actually the trade looked good on it's own meret. I posted a graph. you you pushed me off the fence... Scott
yeah thats how it is with me sometimes as well...
Relax and be happy.
  • #193
  • Apr 25, 2006 6:23am Apr 25, 2006 6:23am
Quoting Isotonic
in the long term makets are weighing machines (fundies), in the short term they are voting machines (speculation). same for stocks, same for futures.
well said my friend!
Relax and be happy.
  • #194
  • Apr 25, 2006 6:25am Apr 25, 2006 6:25am
Quoting fx-trader777
Hi Merlin,


Why 114.00 is support? Big figure???
thats where i see a lot of price action happening in the past (ie sideways movement). i consider support/resistance prices that have been trading a lot in the past, because thats where many investors have entered/exited and will join the party once again..
Relax and be happy.
  • #195
  • Apr 25, 2006 10:27am Apr 25, 2006 10:27am
[15:08 USD/JPY: Large Offers Capping 115.00] San Francisco, April 25. Large offers from either European names or a central bank are tipped around 115.00 on USD/JPY with a high of 114.99 seen. However, USD/JPY has rejected the highs, slumping sharply back to 114.66/68. The mood in Tokyo has turned very bearish USD/JPY in the wake of the G-7 statement and the traders there are looking for a move to 110.00 in coming sessions. Japan reflects two factors that are the focus of the G-7 statement including massive reserves and a trade surplus that the G-7 is aiming to address. This will keep USD/JPY under pressure. Above 115.00, some traders only report stops from that level up to 115.50. Others note a mix of stops but also fresh selling interest up to 115.50. Still others report heavy selling interest from 115.00 to 115.20, with more at 115.40/50 and stops above 115.50. Bids remain firm around 114.00-20, protecting large barrier options at 114.00. [email protected]

Apparently the 114 options exipre tomorrow at 10am est. Should keep it rangebound for the rest of the day.

I love the CoesFX news. It's good stuff...
  • #196
  • Apr 25, 2006 12:20pm Apr 25, 2006 12:20pm
Quoting nitman
Is it an advantage to keep the value of your country's currency low?
In the case of Japan, yes, it is an advantage to keep the value of the currency low, because Japan is an exporter, thus when keeping the value of the Yen lower, their exports to the US are cheap...When the Yen rallies, exporters get hurt because their products are more expensive now, that's why the BOJ interferes in the currency market to keep the Yen down within a certain range...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #197
  • Apr 25, 2006 12:24pm Apr 25, 2006 12:24pm
Merlin, Congratulations...I see patience paid off in just 2 weeks , this is more than great....Well said, the BOJ finally throws the towel

Hope that we clear the 113.70 area soon, and don't worry Merlin, this will be sooner than you expect man...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #198
  • Apr 27, 2006 8:30pm Apr 27, 2006 8:30pm
On the economic calendar, Merlin listed the time for the BOJ Interest Rate Statement as tentative. I've looked at the BoJ site and they say that the announcement time could change if the meeting runs over...So, where can I find the most recent information for when the announcement will actually come?? It seems like most news sites just have it listed as sometime on the 28th.
  • #199
  • Apr 27, 2006 9:01pm Apr 27, 2006 9:01pm
LOL! yes the BOJ is very shady, they never give a specific time. the calendar time is an estimate, and we try to adjust it as more info becomes available. but whatever time it comes out, i will be waiting patiently!!
Relax and be happy.
  • #200
  • Apr 27, 2006 9:12pm Apr 27, 2006 9:12pm
btw here is the link you'll want to watch...

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/theme/seisaku/kettei/index.htm
Relax and be happy.
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