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Greece 2012

  • #61
  • Feb 11, 2012 7:45am Feb 11, 2012 7:45am
haha i bought few greece produced kiwi yesterday, i hope it will boost their economy

actually the situation seems to be very bad, especially when people and opposition are only worstening the whole thing, they dont understand that when the Greece will default and will be out of EU, return to drachma which will be very weak, own closed import-oriented noncompetitive economy, zero new foreign investments, imported inflation, recession --> higher prices and lower salaries, its still a lot better to shut up now..

anyway i dont think this situation can be solved, there is no way to do that, with such recession there and with another austerity their debt to GDP % will not be any better when ur GDP shrink

its easy to be wise after the fact, but if two years ago EU let them default and fire them from union and only rather pumped money to the banking system, enter with capital into most exposed banks, cleared the balance sheets, there would be the storm definitely but i think that it would cause much less problems than now, at all we can look at USA, they actually did with their banks the same and it looks like that worked good
  • #62
  • Feb 16, 2012 4:23am Feb 16, 2012 4:23am
The situation is becoming more and more interesting by the day.
A disorderly default may be averted but a default is still definitely in the cards, more so now after recent events.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63
  • Feb 16, 2012 4:52am Feb 16, 2012 4:52am
The EZ politicians' rhetoric on Greece has certainly changed in the last 48 hours.
  • #64
  • Feb 16, 2012 6:05am Feb 16, 2012 6:05am
Quoting bbakker
The EZ politicians' rhetoric on Greece has certainly changed in the last 48 hours.
Massively.

Is the 1st time since the problems started that an important group of EZ members are aligned for a Greek default as less expensive scenario. The odds has changed a lot I would say.

Most of the other EZ members have already all contingency plans in place for the knee jerk reaction but the big ???? is still the other with problems (Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain) that may not resist a full blown bad (over)reaction from investors if the "Official" default triggers.

Without the domino effect in the equation as only and key factor in the decision for the default, the odds of Greece out of the euro and default are increasing by the second ....we'll need to wait for the circus on monday (is probably the real last chance for Greece)...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #65
  • Feb 16, 2012 6:16am Feb 16, 2012 6:16am
Quoting katrooo
haha i bought few greece produced kiwi yesterday, i hope it will boost their economy

actually the situation seems to be very bad, especially when people and opposition are only worstening the whole thing, they dont understand that when the Greece will default and will be out of EU, return to drachma which will be very weak, own closed import-oriented noncompetitive economy, zero new foreign investments, imported inflation, recession --> higher prices and lower salaries, its still a lot better to shut up now..

anyway i dont think this situation...


Your observation is quite interesting why you don’t explain that to Greeks , I mean that they must wary about it???
Probably they don’t know that !!
Now about the Americans you are right they economy is improving simply because they don’t get Captain Schoimble, Maria Antoinette Merkel and Admiral Sarkozy that sail the European Titanic on coalition curse direct on the rocks .
Of course as always they can blame some one else,what about the
Greek sailor guy ??
Yes yes he is responsible for everything he told them to sail in the wrong direction and they did !!!!
It can be an interesting fair tale I think, and all kids at the age of ten or less they will love it.
Don’t you think ????
  • #66
  • Feb 16, 2012 6:46am Feb 16, 2012 6:46am
Quoting katrooo
haha i bought few greece produced kiwi yesterday, i hope it will boost their economy
...
Jokes like these are in my opinion bad taste. A greek woman was prepared to commit suicide by jumping of a building yesterday because she could not afford to feed her children anymore.

I know as traders we want to profit out of these kind of events and I have no problem in doing so, but comments like these are ill-thought. There are traders from Greece on these forums too, so next time please have a little respect.
  • #67
  • Feb 16, 2012 7:06am Feb 16, 2012 7:06am
Quoting bbakker
Jokes like these are in my opinion bad taste. A greek woman was prepared to commit suicide by jumping of a building yesterday because she could not afford to feed her children anymore.

I know as traders we want to profit out of these kind of events and I have no problem in doing so, but comments like these are ill-thought. There are traders from Greece on these forums too, so next time please have a little respect.


We get some clowns lately!!
  • #68
  • Edited 8:53am Feb 16, 2012 7:41am | Edited 8:53am
Quoting sisse
Massively.

Is the 1st time since the problems started that an important group of EZ members are aligned for a Greek default as less expensive scenario. The odds has changed a lot I would say.

Most of the other EZ members have already all contingency plans in place for the knee jerk reaction but the big ???? is still the other with problems (Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain) that may not resist a full blown bad (over)reaction from investors if the "Official" default triggers.

Without the domino effect in the equation as only and key factor...
Hey sisse!

Always nice to read your posts!

Back in July 2010, I thought that Greece would default in 2012/13 -

Quoting bbakker
Nice find! They categorically state that they didn't include sovereign debt, because European countries will not default on their debt. My money is on Greece defaulting in 2012/13.
Now the end game is nigh and I am amazed that some traders think that Greece will never default. Maybe they deemed the question as 'Will Greece have a disorderly default?

Greece have been in many last chance saloons before but I have to say that all the austerity measures imposed on them were always counter-productive feeding the vicious cycle of increased debt through decreased tax revenues. Their tax revenues in the first place weren't exactly a strong point with a huge black market ingrained in their society. To change that takes a change in mentality and that could take generations, although with recent events this could be the catalyst for this change.

I also have to add that tax avoidance does not just exist in Greece. It occurs in all countries and it is the global corporations and the rich that benefit the most from it. If we all paid our taxes, governments could actually reduce the amount of tax that we all pay and that we all pay an equal amount in % terms. I think Warren Buffet made some good comments on tax and asked why as a % he pays less tax than his secretary... but I digress.

The main issues that were raised before with regards to Greece was the domino effect it would have in the EZ. I believe Draghi's LTRO actions have allowed these fears to be subsided as the banks have now shored up their balance sheets so that if a disorderly default does occur, although banks will lose, they will not go bankrupt. Many EZ politicians feel that a default in Greece who constitute 2% of the EZ GDP, is now acceptable and less painful for EZ, not Greece!

Of course if Greece default, I can see yields going up on Portugal, Italy, Spain, etc. which is the natural reaction from the markets, but the ECB will continue to buy their bonds to ensure that they do not reach the same level as Greece's yields did that pushed them over the edge. I also suspect that Portugal will get a second bail out.

Whatever the end result with Greece, whether the EZ will continue to support them with increased austerity measures or Greece will leave the euro/EZ with a disorderly default, whichever way you look at it, there is only going to be more pain for the Greek people. You have to feel for them for the predicament that they are in and they seem to be made as the scapegoat which I think is wrong on many fronts.

I also have to say that countries like Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland, France have to seriously look at what is happening in Greece. Not only the EZ countries, Japan, US and the UK are also not looking very rosy and this scenario that is being played out in Greece could easily happen to them too. Let's face facts, Greece is not the only country that is bankrupt... the West is bankrupt!

Brian
  • #69
  • Feb 16, 2012 8:47am Feb 16, 2012 8:47am
i am sorry guys,

dont take my words as a offence i didnt want to harm somebody, i was only trying to desrcibe how i feel about it from economic perspective.

peace

and i hope the riots will calm down and nobody else will get hurt, even the situation is really tough.
  • #70
  • Feb 16, 2012 8:51am Feb 16, 2012 8:51am
Quoting katrooo
i am sorry guys,

dont take my words as a offence i didnt want to harm somebody, i was only trying to desrcibe how i feel about it from economic perspective.

peace

and i hope the riots will calm down and nobody else will get hurt, even the situation is really tough.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71
  • Feb 16, 2012 9:27am Feb 16, 2012 9:27am
Quoting katrooo
haha i bought few greece produced kiwi yesterday, i hope it will boost their economy

..........
Did u really believe that you bought a Greek kiwi ?? We don't make them in Greece... we import them from other countries. This is the problem unfortunately with this country it has no production at all. It is a fake economy built on loans and political shit. Unfortunately there are Greek people that do not deserve having this luck but now we are all judged for the choices we made in the past or for letting things go this way. From the other hand I can't hear anymore the good europeans that wish to save the country from disaster when the same people participated in developing this situation. We are just the precursor for other weak EU members. Our so-called "punishment" will be used for other reasons. How can a shit like us move Euro up-down this way... just think about it.

I'm greek and I'm ready to listen to your jokes (I have humor...still) and you opinions. What I will not accept is people saying that we "eat" European's bailout money. We haven't seen a f.ck...ng cent in our economy... everything goes back to the banks. Now that the exposure is minimized they just don't care...

My kindest regards to all and sorry for the poor english,

d
  • #72
  • Feb 16, 2012 2:23pm Feb 16, 2012 2:23pm
Quoting rmitsos
...I'm greek and I'm ready to listen to your jokes (I have humor...still) and you opinions. What I will not accept is people saying that we "eat" European's bailout money. We haven't seen a f.ck...ng cent in our economy... everything goes back to the banks. Now that the exposure is minimized they just don't care...

My kindest regards to all and sorry for the poor english,

d
D,

Your English is a milllion times better than my Greek!

You've hit the nail right on the head... the extra money has not filtered into the economy at all and it is the same with all of the QE around the world, it has just gone to the banks to shore up their balance sheets. A fractional reserve banking system with such a small reserve was always going to create problems and now the shit has hit the fan whereby in a lot of western countries debt has ballooned out of control.

In Greece's case, I believe that by joining the Euro it actually damaged their economy, especially their tourist industry and outweighed any benefits. The benefit was that Greece's government had access to cheap money but that just exacerbated the problem and getting the country further into debt heavily dependent on their public sector to replace the lost jobs in the tourist industry.

I think the best solution for Greece is to go back to their old currency, devalue and build the economy back based on the tourist industry that your country so proudly cherished with the amazing history you have behind you. Greece used to be a great holiday destination until the Euro priced them out of the European market. I know that the Greek people will eventually find a way to come out this terrible mess and resolve it, I am sure of that.

It will require asking some tough questions and making some tough decisions not just for Greece but also for everyone else who is nearing the same abyss.

I wish you much success with your trading!
  • #73
  • Edited 6:05am Feb 21, 2012 3:58am | Edited 6:05am
Hello friends,

Okay, according to me Greek default has already happened at the instant they announced haircut. So the question is, when are they going to announce formally??

Now it is that the second bailout is approved and a high hopium is created, but i believe this has already been priced in to the market. However, i am expecting another riot from Greek people anytime considering the pension cuts and lay-offs and other such issues.

Now comes the problem for politicians too. No party will have majority from the people and that naturally means there is going to be a coalition government and any decision in the parliament, either good or bad, there may be an opposition within the coalition. Campaign will really be a hard job. People don't need cuts. However, no party can afford to give a promise that it will be lifted if elected. I don't have to say how the market reacts if at all such a promise is made. So whoever elected will have a horrible time in their political career. As of now, all parties may be using Mr. Papademos as a puppet so that they could hide themselves from the public for spending cuts.

Then, what happens after election?? I'm really confused. If the government implements the cuts then, they will face a strong opposition from public. Hence, the only way is to make public to understand the importance of these cuts and the disaster they would face which will be more intense.

Eventhough i've got a serious doubt. Will second bailout help for the projected transition???

Government should add some more expense: Public will break some more building and the government have to work on that too

Moreover, i am wondered about ECB. By transferring all the profits to other hands, will they run short of money at some point and start printing??? Please educate me regarding this. I couldn't understand that.


My technical perpective:

Weekly:
By looking at the weekly chart, price has taken 61.8% of the swing 2010 low to 2011 high for 3 weeks and failed to close below. Last week candle shows a bullish bias however, considering past 3 weeks my stand is consolidation. So no trade until it closes by breaking 50% or 61.8%.
I also see a trend line resistance. Please take a look at the chart for it.

Daily:
Still looks bearish for me. Unless otherwise i see a daily close above 38.2% (3300 for safety) i cannot shift to bullish bias. Though Feb 2 candle have closed above 38.2, fundamentals was different then. So there might be a chance for the break above because of the deal approval and blah blah blah...

Hey wait, i see a 3rd top on the trendline which indicates a nice selling opportunity. That is what one of my friend taught me. So since i believe the the deal approval has already priced in and there are considerable resistance this pair might come down. However, considering a break above
3407 should be a resistace (50% fib of weekly swing of 2010 low to 2011 high) and second target being 3434 (50% of latest daily swing).

A daily close above 3300 would bring MACD (daily chart) to bullish bias.

4H:

I've used combination of 55 smoothed MA and 200 SMA which says that the market is bullish atleast in medium term. As long as the market is above 200 SMA, bearish tone hasn't confirmed is what my opinion. Also MACD also shows bullish sign.
Anyway, i'm tempted to short this baby now considering the double top in 4H and daily resistance. I mean, for atleast 40 or 50 pips which means great to me.

This is my first ever opinion of this length and you know what happened to me after typing this long.... yes you are correct..... confused myself to short or long. So naturally, i stay in the sidelines.

Please do educate me if anything wrong and i always like being corrected if wrong.

Charts attached.

Thank you guys !!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU weekly.png Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU daily.png Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU daily MACD.png Size: 47 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 4H.png Size: 54 KB
  • #74
  • Feb 22, 2012 1:29am Feb 22, 2012 1:29am
Quoting FX Tsunami
Hello friends,

Okay, according to me Greek default has already happened at the instant they announced haircut. So the question is, when are they going to announce formally??

Now it is that the second bailout is approved and a high hopium is created, but i believe this has already been priced in to the market. However, i am expecting another riot from Greek people anytime considering the pension cuts and lay-offs and other such issues.

Now comes the problem for politicians too. No party will have majority from the people and that naturally...
Very good bro. From a technical perspective, you just described exactly what I see.

As for the ECB sharing its profits, it will not be short of money if it does because the profits are not in money but in toxic assets (Greek Bonds) which will never be cashed in (in my opinion) because Greece will eventually have to go bankrupt. What will most likely happen is the bonds will end up being bought by the EFSF or the ESM so the ECB will not have to take the loss directly.

Regarding market sentiment on the Greek deal, The equity markets have made some fantastic gains lately yet the Euro has stayed behind. This (The Euro staying behind) is probably due to the moderate recovery of the US Dollar as chances of QE3 are reduced. This will continue as long as US econ data remains positive. Anyway, you are correct that the Greek deal has been priced in, however what has been priced in is "hope" of the Greek deal going well and being finalized. We are still a long way from that point. Progress on agreements have been made but agreements are just agreements and recent history has already shown us that things change quickly. I will wait for the actual transactions for my final judgement.

The EU does not want Greece to go bankrupt or to leave the EZ for obvious reasons. Allowing it will send a signal that the EZ project is a failure. Everyone knows it has already failed but a disorderly default by one of the EZ members will be the first nail in the coffin. Regardless, such a disorderly default is not impossible. Time will tell. Stay tuned
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #75
  • Feb 22, 2012 2:37am Feb 22, 2012 2:37am
The political situation in Greece is ridiculous at least. Members of all parties are moving left and right trying to secure their position at the very next day. They don't really care whether there will be a "next day" but if there is, they want to make sure that they will hold a position that will offer publicity and benefits (as is today). If we Greeks don't trust our politicians how the heck do we expect the EU or the IMF to believe that we will implement what we have promised. There is a lack of leadership which brings concerns and then confusion and then a complete mess when thinking that there's no light at the end.
I will agree with the fellows of this forum that default is really close, local banks are getting prepared for this. Protests are against the political system not the EU. All you see about damages, fires and people getting injured is a confusion created for obvious reason, to minimize participation.

Kind regards to all
  • #76
  • Feb 22, 2012 3:46am Feb 22, 2012 3:46am
Quoting rmitsos
The political situation in Greece is ridiculous at least. Members of all parties are moving left and right trying to secure their position at the very next day. They don't really care whether there will be a "next day" but if there is, they want to make sure that they will hold a position that will offer publicity and benefits (as is today). If we Greeks don't trust our politicians how the heck do we expect the EU or the IMF to believe that we will implement what we have promised. There is a lack of leadership which brings concerns and then confusion...

Thanks for your comments. It is very refreshing to read lucid comments from an insider. Cheers
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #77
  • Feb 22, 2012 5:10am Feb 22, 2012 5:10am
Quoting rmitsos
The political situation in Greece is ridiculous at least. Members of all parties are moving left and right trying to secure their position at the very next day. They don't really care whether there will be a "next day" but if there is, they want to make sure that they will hold a position that will offer publicity and benefits (as is today). If we Greeks don't trust our politicians how the heck do we expect the EU or the IMF to believe that we will implement what we have promised. There is a lack of leadership which brings concerns and then confusion...
Bravo Mitsara!!!
  • #78
  • Feb 22, 2012 8:09am Feb 22, 2012 8:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
Very good bro. From a technical perspective, you just described exactly what I see.

As for the ECB sharing its profits, it will not be short of money if it does because the profits are not in money but in toxic assets (Greek Bonds) which will never be cashed in (in my opinion) because Greece will eventually have to go bankrupt. What will most likely happen is the bonds will end up being bought by the EFSF or the ESM so the ECB will not have to take the loss directly.

Regarding market sentiment on the Greek deal, The equity markets have made...

Thank you dear brother I feel happy that my effort is recognized and that too by a person on whom i have a great respect.

And things are getting clear for me slowly and will continue to do so
  • #79
  • Feb 22, 2012 9:27am Feb 22, 2012 9:27am
The biggest problem is that Greece has always had Government and other controlling bodies, so full of corruption, and the population has become so used to their wages and pensions being artificially inflated by massive Government borrowing.

It will need a culture change to make any difference to their economy, this could take many years.

I think it is inevitable that Greece will default. Nobody in Europe is going to just keep pouring in billions of pounds without seeing a major change in the Greek mentality and the voting in of a Government that is capable of turning round the Greek economy.

That is just not going to happen.

Robert.
  • #80
  • Feb 22, 2012 10:19am Feb 22, 2012 10:19am
Quoting tranco
Bravo Mitsara!!!
Ooops, I found a bro here....
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