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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #31,301
  • Feb 21, 2012 11:56pm Feb 21, 2012 11:56pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
I often use a 1-3-9 progression on rescues when the retraces are shallow, but it can land you in a heap of trouble if you get it wrong and don't have enough ammo left after the third level. That would usually be time to pull the plug, a la Vic.
Thanks for sharing, ukmanthailan. Much appreciated.

My skews are pretty similar to yours... but on the third level of rescue, the market usually goes into a ranging phase (aka exhaustion/consolidation) and I will determine the number of troops based on the range than (could be anything between 9-20).

regards
  • #31,302
  • Feb 21, 2012 11:59pm Feb 21, 2012 11:59pm
hi N trader,
i am also glad to learn from and with you and the others here.

something to think about is, maybe your scout size is too big, my scout could get twice that deep before i would have to even given it a second thought, not that they have done so far.

what i was trying to say before, its about comfort zones to allow unbias thoughts and actions....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...11#post5396011

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #31,303
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:06am Feb 22, 2012 12:06am
Phil!
  • #31,304
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:08am Feb 22, 2012 12:08am
"yes, the retraces can be small, sometimes 6-7 pips if you are trading in a short timeframe against the impulse and are stubborn."

Friends the key is not to rescue too early against the impulse.

regards
  • #31,305
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:22am Feb 22, 2012 12:22am
Quoting fti
You must learn be nimble to market pulse.
If you rigidly bias.
and book exposed to unconfort zone.
Then when they come at you , you will be like deer in head lights, palralysed.
But if you like the thrill of death battles then is ok, gamble away.
Is up to you.
When in this terrains becareful not turn into pig.
Need view from 1 perspective and strategise accordingly.
Never fight the flow.
Remember aside is a position.
At times, is most strategic position.
Only scouts are expandable.

also during these times...
Great to see your post Phil.

I have been there. Twice. Almost lost my balls after that.

Now, my sizing is really small - 0.01lot. I am trying only to grasp the concepts... I also think that I am relatively well capitalized for the scout size. i.e. I can afford up to L6,7 rescues with additional ammo left. But I try not to go down that path if possible. Sometimes, I think that I may need to break this mindset - fear of deploying L6,7 rescues. Like V said, I tend to think that I should try to live to fight another day...

regards
  • #31,306
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:25am Feb 22, 2012 12:25am
6-7 pips are mostly broker's machine trying to disturb our mind la
ukmanthailan, nice to see you around. How's your lovely daughter?
  • #31,307
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:31am Feb 22, 2012 12:31am
Hi imjscn,

She's great thanks - gets cuter every day. Unlike her father who seems to get fatter every day

How's the weather up there?

------------
@cuthbert
Yes, I was going to say that my three rescue levels are not necessarily implemented at the end of every wave against me. I might well wait until all three had finished before deciding what to do - if indeed there were three of them.
  • #31,308
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:32am Feb 22, 2012 12:32am
Quoting cuthbert
"yes, the retraces can be small, sometimes 6-7 pips if you are trading in a short timeframe against the impulse and are stubborn."

Friends the key is not to rescue too early against the impulse.

regards
Hi cuthbert,

I typically do not deploy and rescue until market is > 50 pips away from my average attack position and show signs of weakness. But I'm not sure if I am doing the right thing. Usually a strong impulse will carry the market ~150pips from my average position. If i wait for too long, my skew will have to grow proportionally larger. if too early, it is likely to be trapped.

In an ideal 5 wave formation, I would wait for the 2nd/3rd impulse waves to show weakness before attempting rescue. And almost always, my first level rescue will be trapped.

But the more I share about my weakness, the clearer I see it. I think I am starting to learn something new here...

Thanks to all for your kind inputs. I would not have gotten this far without all the selfless sharing. Especially that from chief.

regards
  • #31,309
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:33am Feb 22, 2012 12:33am
Quoting cuthbert
"yes, the retraces can be small, sometimes 6-7 pips if you are trading in a short timeframe against the impulse and are stubborn."

Friends the key is not to rescue too early against the impulse.

regards
hi Bert,

this is what i have found as well, patience and an unbias read of the charts is the answer, i find now that i never have to go above 1,3,5 in rescues.

sometimes i think cutting and moving on is the right thing to do, i personally try not to do that to often as i fear it will create a habit, thats why i cut half if i am wrong and try to rescue.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #31,310
  • Edited 12:50am Feb 22, 2012 12:39am | Edited 12:50am
Quoting ukmanthailan
I often use a 1-3-9 progression on rescues when the retraces are shallow, but it can land you in a heap of trouble if you get it wrong and don't have enough ammo left after the third level. That would usually be time to pull the plug, a la Vic.

EDIT: I have also flipped in size on what I perceive to be a new impulse rather than a retracement (in 5M time-frame) but I would not recommend this if the new impulse is not in line with the trend you see on longer time-frames, i.e. if the new 5M impulse wave is merely part of a retracement of an hourly...
Just to share my 2 pips on rescue.

My rescue size depends very much on the terrain and pulse. When taking a rescue deployment opportunity, I will take into consideration of the current position size, its relative size to all my account size. The actual ratio is not fixed. It can be 1,1 or 1,2 or 1,3 or even 1,5 or 1,8. It all depends.

The total planned rescue size currently on hand MAY BE split into 2 if I am not very sure of its location but do not wish to miss that window NOW. I may deploy the 2nd half later if price action allows; at better or worse price.

At times, the 2nd half may not have chance to get deploy and the 1st half's profit is not sufficient to complete the rescue of the whole session, I would just take this half off the field with whatever profit if the price action looks like is going to go against me again. If the 1st half was in trouble, I can use my 2nd half for a better price. Sort of preserving my bullets in a way.

PS: I am not saying that I always split the intended rescue size into 2 batches, but just offer an additional option here.
  • #31,311
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:41am Feb 22, 2012 12:41am
Dear TAF members and FTI,

Yesterday discussion got me thinking and would like to hear your views.

FTI methodology was designed for dealers. To quote prices and sizes for customers.

I've read most of the thread and there is little discussion about this (sorry if I've missed it) and in my opnion the "DANCE" is all about this.

So... I would like to hear from you. If I'm a customer calling at your bank (your account) How would you determine the two-sided quote that you would offer me?

I've shared my view, but would like to hear others opinion, specially Fti's and other more experience traders.

Good trading to all
  • #31,312
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:43am Feb 22, 2012 12:43am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
After blowing my latest account a little while ago, I'm once again back, trying to mould myself into a better person and a better trader once again. Glad to see this thread alive and well .
I am sorry to hear that. When you have the time, it would be great if you shared your experiences. Most likely it is already obvious to you what you did wrong.
  • #31,313
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:43am Feb 22, 2012 12:43am
Quoting ukmanthailan
She's great thanks - gets cuter every day. Unlike her father who seems to get fatter every day
How's the weather up there?
I might well wait until all three had finished before deciding what to do - if indeed there were three of them.
Nice! If she prefer slim, sure don't learn trading :-))
Seems Spring is here, ice melting...
  • #31,314
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:52am Feb 22, 2012 12:52am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi cuthbert,

I typically do not deploy and rescue until market is > 50 pips away from my average attack position and show signs of weakness. But I'm not sure if I am doing the right thing. Usually a strong impulse will carry the market ~150pips from my average position. If i wait for too long, my skew will have to grow proportionally larger. if too early, it is likely to be trapped.

In an ideal 5 wave formation, I would wait for the 2nd/3rd impulse waves to show weakness before attempting rescue. And almost always,...
pips again.. why? I am not sure I understand what you are saying but it can be that the price moves 50 pips before a rescue is possible or wise. I would look at the hourly chart to see if it makes sense to be in this position.
  • #31,315
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:53am Feb 22, 2012 12:53am
Quoting tricello
Dear TAF members and FTI,

Yesterday discussion got me thinking and would like to hear your views.

FTI methodology was designed for dealers. To quote prices and sizes for customers.

I've read most of the thread and there is little discussion about this (sorry if I've missed it) and in my opnion the "DANCE" is all about this.

So... I would like to hear from you. If I'm a customer calling at your bank (your account) How would you determine the two-sided quote that you would offer me?

I've shared my view, but would like to hear others...
FTI has explained how dealers operate in a post long time ago, try to find it.
  • #31,316
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:55am Feb 22, 2012 12:55am
Quoting hcong168
Just to share my 2 pips on rescue.

My rescue size depends very much on the terrain and pulse. When taking a rescue deployment opportunity, I will take into consideration of the current position size, its relative size to all my account size. The actual ratio is not fixed. It can be 1,1 or 1,2 or 1,3 or even 1,5 or 1,8. It all depends.

The total planned rescue size currently on hand MAY BE split into 2 if I am not very sure of its location but do not wish to miss that window NOW. I may deploy the 2nd half later if price action allows;...
It makes sense. The worst you can do is blindly snowball a tiny loss into an avalanche.
  • #31,317
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:56am Feb 22, 2012 12:56am
Quoting phil13
hi Bert,

this is what i have found as well, patience and an unbias read of the charts is the answer, i find now that i never have to go above 1,3,5 in rescues.

sometimes i think cutting and moving on is the right thing to do, i personally try not to do that to often as i fear it will create a habit, thats why i cut half if i am wrong and try to rescue.

regards

Phil.
Yes, pick your battles.
  • #31,318
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:58am Feb 22, 2012 12:58am
Quoting piccolo
pips again.. why? I am not sure I understand what you are saying but it can be that the price moves 50 pips before a rescue is possible or wise. I would look at the hourly chart to see if it makes sense to be in this position.
Hi piccolo,

I should do away with the pips analogy. 50 is just a hypothetical number. I would be looking at the chart to feel the price stalling and turning before deploying my rescue.

All I'm trying to say is that I try not to deploy too early...

regards
  • #31,319
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:59am Feb 22, 2012 12:59am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi cuthbert,

I typically do not deploy and rescue until market is > 50 pips away from my average attack position and show signs of weakness.

In an ideal 5 wave formation, I would wait for the 2nd/3rd impulse waves to show weakness before attempting rescue.
There seems some rigidity in that N.
  • #31,320
  • Feb 22, 2012 1:00am Feb 22, 2012 1:00am
Quoting hcong168
My rescue size depends very much on the terrain and pulse. When taking a rescue deployment opportunity, I will take into consideration of the current position size, its relative size to all my account size. The actual ratio is not fixed. It can be 1,1 or 1,2 or 1,3 or even 1,5 or 1,8. It all depends.
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