Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 1565 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #31,281
  • Edited 10:20am Feb 21, 2012 10:07am | Edited 10:20am
Quoting piccolo
If I had a 300 pip loss, I would wonder what the hell am I doing. It would take 2-3 days to get there.. which makes no sense.

Don't look at the % and the pips as some sort of mathematical gauge. The market moves in waves and that serves as your attack/rescue timers and sizers.

Yes, I would take partial rescues when I am wrong and the rescue fails to reach a breakeven point. Overstay and your position becomes unmanageable quickly.
Hi piccolo,

I am very grateful for your reply

I think I understand the waves that you are referring. However, at times, retracement waves are so small it would take a large skew to get out at BE. Moreover, there's no guarantee that the rescues will not be trapped. In the event that L3 or more are trapped, one would probably be 150-200pips away from initial position... (pardon me for using pips again )
And that's were things can get hairy....

edited* Not sure if I have misunderstood you... please correct me if so.

regards

P.S. to "pull and plug" at 5-10% in the above scenario can happen I think....
  • #31,282
  • Feb 21, 2012 10:10am Feb 21, 2012 10:10am
Quoting indianguyinny24
If i am not wrong ..some time ago piccolo made a great comment on this hedging way of trading ...

but if i may ...one little whip on mindset and this type of trading can bring a lot of issues for you...

if you think clearly once you are in trade there is only two things you can do..
You can add to the trade/position or you can reduce the trade/position...

if you are winning either you add or take profit or reduce...

if you are loosing either you add to bring BE closer or close the position...

what you are doing is feeding your mindset...
I'm really sorry, what I intended to share is coming out completely wrong... probably not great at exposing my own ideas.

I'm not "hedging" in any way... Just adding / reducing positions. My initial stance (long/short) is kept all the time. What changes is the size of my exposure and the way I take profits along the way.

Probably the misunderstanding is coming from the use of the terms short and long positions....

There is just ONE net position at any given time. If it's short I increase it using short trades and decrease it using long trades. i use the averages of both to determine the prices for readjusting the exposure.
  • #31,283
  • Feb 21, 2012 10:13am Feb 21, 2012 10:13am
Quoting tricello
I'm really sorry, what I intended to share is coming out completely wrong... probably not great at exposing my own ideas.

I'm not "hedging" in any way... Just adding / reducing positions. My initial stance (long/short) is kept all the time. What changes is the size of my exposure and the way I take profits along the way.

Probably the misunderstanding is coming from the use of the terms short and long positions....

There is just ONE net position at any given time. If it's short I increase it using short trades and decrease it using...

if it is working for you thats good

but i learned KISS is good way to trade..

V
  • #31,284
  • Feb 21, 2012 10:19am Feb 21, 2012 10:19am
Quoting tricello
I'm really sorry, what I intended to share is coming out completely wrong... probably not great at exposing my own ideas.

I'm not "hedging" in any way... Just adding / reducing positions. My initial stance (long/short) is kept all the time. What changes is the size of my exposure and the way I take profits along the way.

Probably the misunderstanding is coming from the use of the terms short and long positions....

There is just ONE net position at any given time. If it's short I increase it using short trades and decrease it using...
Hi Tricello,

Please do not feel that it's not a good thing to share... I think one can be misunderstood in a public forum sometimes.

Most who comment are trying to help one another along. And I can vouch that V is one kind soul here on FF. Just take in what is beneficial for you I think.

Cheers
  • #31,285
  • Edited 10:57am Feb 21, 2012 10:26am | Edited 10:57am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi Tricello,

Please do not feel that it's not a good thing to share... I think one can be misunderstood in a public forum sometimes.

Most who comment are trying to help one another along. And I can vouch that V is one kind soul here on FF. Just take in what is beneficial for you I think.

Cheers
NTrader, V

I appreciate all comments/criticisms done in a constructive way. It's the best way to learn from each other.

And as V says simple is good....

Just throwing an idea out there, it may help someone, it may not.

I know that most of my trading "education" it's been from grabbing bites and pieces here and there

regards
  • #31,286
  • Feb 21, 2012 10:33am Feb 21, 2012 10:33am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi Tricello,

Please do not feel that it's not a good thing to share... I think one can be misunderstood in a public forum sometimes.

Most who comment are trying to help one another along. And I can vouch that V is one kind soul here on FF. Just take in what is beneficial for you I think.

Cheers

I second that
  • #31,287
  • Edited Feb 22, 2012 12:07am Feb 21, 2012 10:48am | Edited Feb 22, 2012 12:07am
Quoting cuthbert
hi Trappist!
I do have fti's teachings in MS word format. Don't hesitate asking me. Additionally do not get frightened by the length of thread. For a good start first 200 pages are good.

regards
Hi Cuthbert,

Could you kindly send me a copy of fti's teachings in MS word?

Thanks a lot!
  • #31,288
  • Feb 21, 2012 11:26am Feb 21, 2012 11:26am
Quoting indianguyinny24
@Cut
these types losses dont bother much ...what bothers me the mistake that bought me to losses...if i am keep on doing same mistake that is a BOTHERATION...

I stop watching cricket in 2007 world cup ..when india didnt made to second round ... i watched some when we won this time...but lost the interest big time...BTW i was opener in my team and i had the highest score in an over in my name (28 runs in 5 balls ...6th ball i was out)
see i knew it. we do carry a bat wherever we go. Batting always a hallmark of India and bowling..........you know it.
nice 28 runs on 5 balls Vic but i haven't experienced black widow yet and neither have you experienced inswinging yorkers at above 80 miles per hour from cuthbert.

sleep well

regards
  • #31,289
  • Feb 21, 2012 11:27am Feb 21, 2012 11:27am
Quoting Zoran


Thanks
You are welcome.
  • #31,290
  • Feb 21, 2012 11:29am Feb 21, 2012 11:29am
Quoting contratrend
Hi Cuthbert,

Could you kindly send me a copy of fti's teachings in MS word?
My email address is [email protected]
Thanks a lot!
You Got it my friend. It is on its way.

regards
  • #31,291
  • Feb 21, 2012 12:49pm Feb 21, 2012 12:49pm
Quoting cuthbert
see i knew it. we do carry a bat wherever we go. Batting always a hallmark of India and bowling..........you know it.
nice 28 runs on 5 balls Vic but i haven't experienced black widow yet and neither have you experienced inswinging yorkers at above 80 miles per hour from cuthbert.

sleep well

regards
i wont lie it was a spinner and i am told i was aggressive... would love to play the inswinging yorker someday...

but you havent faced a situation of last ball and 4 runs to win either facing a 6ft 3 inch tall black guy in full speed (didnt had speed camera on him while i used tto play is US)

V
  • #31,292
  • Feb 21, 2012 2:20pm Feb 21, 2012 2:20pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
i wont lie it was a spinner and i am told i was aggressive... would love to play the inswinging yorker someday...

but you havent faced a situation of last ball and 4 runs to win either facing a 6ft 3 inch tall black guy in full speed (didnt had speed camera on him while i used tto play is US)

V
my cricket is with Mr Market only now, and I like to play hook short when I see bouncer coming. Today was a spinning day so couldn't do much.
  • #31,293
  • Edited 5:06pm Feb 21, 2012 2:29pm | Edited 5:06pm
Quoting N_Trader
Hi piccolo,

I am very grateful for your reply

I think I understand the waves that you are referring. However, at times, retracement waves are so small it would take a large skew to get out at BE. Moreover, there's no guarantee that the rescues will not be trapped. In the event that L3 or more are trapped, one would probably be 150-200pips away from initial position... (pardon me for using pips again )
And that's were things can get hairy....

edited* Not sure if I have misunderstood you... please correct me if so....
pips is your price average from market?
or from initial scout entry?
or it is all counted together multipliet by the units to make a bigger mess

for me 10 pips is just 10 pips, no matter the size and levels. 150pips from scout entry to market price can happen but very, very rarely because in such a range there are plenty of rescue opportunities.

yes, the retraces can be small, sometimes 6-7 pips if you are trading in a short timeframe against the impulse and are stubborn.

trading a limited time window is much, much harder and I think it has been discussed here as well.

anyways, concentrate on the attacks, rescues will come naturally. Don't think in terms of "if it will go agains me 150 pips, will I survive?" Think "if it goes 150 pips my way, will I make the most pips I posisbly can?"
  • #31,294
  • Feb 21, 2012 3:06pm Feb 21, 2012 3:06pm
Just when I think I'm ready to boogie down with the markets...I realize I have missed a step or two.

Still just a first grader trying to jump to high school.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #31,295
  • Feb 21, 2012 11:04pm Feb 21, 2012 11:04pm
Good morning friends, chief!

Ah.. missed the train in jpy.

regards
  • #31,296
  • Feb 21, 2012 11:57pm Feb 21, 2012 11:57pm
After blowing my latest account a little while ago, I'm once again back, trying to mould myself into a better person and a better trader once again. Glad to see this thread alive and well .
  • #31,297
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:03am Feb 22, 2012 12:03am
Quoting cuthbert
You Got it my friend. It is on its way.

regards
Thank you very much.
  • #31,298
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:10am Feb 22, 2012 12:10am
Hi piccolo,

Quoting piccolo
pips is your price average from market?
or from initial scout entry?
or it is all counted together multipliet by the units to make a bigger mess
I am referring to initial scout entry. 150pips from average I would be in deep trouble i think.

for me 10 pips is just 10 pips, no matter the size and levels. 150pips from scout entry to market price can happen but very, very rarely because in such a range there are plenty of rescue opportunities.
Thanks. I get this part

yes, the retraces can be small, sometimes...
Thanks again for such a great sharing. And yes, i'm still a first grader

regards

edited* some how the post got trancated.... guess I have to repost again.
  • #31,299
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:42am Feb 22, 2012 12:42am
Quoting piccolo
pips is your price average from market?
or from initial scout entry?
or it is all counted together multipliet by the units to make a bigger mess
the pips refer to the initial scout entry. I would also think that i'm in deep trouble if my average is 150pips away from market

Quote
for me 10 pips is just 10 pips, no matter the size and levels. 150pips from scout entry to market price can happen but very, very rarely because in such a range there are plenty of rescue opportunities.

So that's how close you try to keep to market?

Quote
yes, the retraces can be small, sometimes 6-7 pips if you are trading in a short timeframe against the impulse and are stubborn.

Yes, I have witnessed that many times. I don't think fib skew is able to bring position to BE given a 6-7 pips retracement. To do that, one would probably need a more aggressive skew. Even so, it still requires a great deal of precision when it comes to execution. A couple of badly timed rescues and one would snowball into a very deep end.

I suppose the next alternative is to turn on retracement and go with the new impulse instead? This is something that I'm still very bad at. I find that my mindset becomes unstable the minute I attempt to turn.

Quote
trading a limited time window is much, much harder and I think it has been discussed here as well.

Yes. I am aware of this. I look to D1 and H1 for general direction and trade the 5M while keep an eye on the 1M. I am still trying to work out something that suits me.

Quote
anyways, concentrate on the attacks, rescues will come naturally. Don't think in terms of "if it will go agains me 150 pips, will I survive?" Think "if it goes 150 pips my way, will I make the most pips I posisbly can?"

Attack is indeed far more difficult imho. I guess that's the reason why chief said that humans tend to strive in adversities... somehow, they will find the courage when faced with a rescue stituation.

I try not to think too much whenever i have a position. But sometimes, the market can go against me hard and fast. And I think I still have not found the missing link for this issue.

That being said, I definitely will work on honing my attack skills as well.

Thanks for the great sharing.

regards
  • #31,300
  • Feb 22, 2012 1:46am Feb 22, 2012 1:46am
I often use a 1-3-9 progression on rescues when the retraces are shallow, but it can land you in a heap of trouble if you get it wrong and don't have enough ammo left after the third level. That would usually be time to pull the plug, a la Vic.

EDIT: I have also flipped in size on what I perceive to be a new impulse rather than a retracement (in 5M time-frame) but I would not recommend this if the new impulse is not in line with the trend you see on longer time-frames, i.e. if the new 5M impulse wave is merely part of a retracement of an hourly or daily wave.
132 traders viewing now