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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #31,241
  • Feb 21, 2012 1:01am Feb 21, 2012 1:01am
Quoting indianguyinny24
It depends...absoluete cut out is 5%...which i might hit today on Euro...i am trying to fight that...paying for mistake not reading news clearly...

chief recomends 10% ...but anything beyound 3X daily profit is u r calling for unrecoverable loss...

i will borrow what Dongsky wrote in his journal...

remember, when you are right and winning... don't put that into your head
and when you are wrong and loosing... don't put that into your heart...


V
Thanks for providing more insights, V. It's a great quote from Dongsky

It happened to me before.. 10% is a lot of pain to take for me... n if I go for 1%, chances are, I have to cut early and market may turn after that to offer rescue opportunities. I guess I still have to work out that figure for myself, but it's great hearing from experienced traders like yourself.

Hopefully cuthbert will be able to share his views.

P.S. so far, I never turn on wind... I am still not confident of doing that.

Regards
  • #31,242
  • Feb 21, 2012 1:11am Feb 21, 2012 1:11am
Quoting simpleman
with rescues, one need staying close to the price whatever it takes. If I reach my loss limit I will close the trades at loss.

If can't do that then means need more capital or reduce position size to more suitable limits.

If stay close to the price then more chances you will be out at break even or profit. IMO
Hi simpleman,

Thanks for sharing.

I guess the question is - how close is close? That could mean very high skew over time. I don't think i'm taking too large a position... my scout is only 0.01 lot.

regards
  • #31,243
  • Feb 21, 2012 1:24am Feb 21, 2012 1:24am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi simpleman,

Thanks for sharing.

I guess the question is - how close is close? That could mean very high skew over time. I don't think i'm taking too large a position... my scout is only 0.01 lot.

regards
it requires experience, need looking at thousand of charts, how much market normally retrace after any up move. What if i say stay close by 10 pips, how much capital you would need if price is away 200 pips from your scout and you already have several positions.

If work out on the excel sheet all the calculation we might will get closer to the picture.

I do loose out on rescues but I know if I can get to certain level of balance in my capital account and keep the position size smaller then it will be very difficult for the market to beat me in its game.

I did demo last week with OANDA and they have smaller size then 0.01, but at the same time if you reduce your position size you %return will go down but you will be able to coup up with un-necessary losses you get because you can't rescue.

Just my opinion as I am still learner and working towards getting the balance right.

Thanks to fti for his teaching.

Regards
  • #31,244
  • Feb 21, 2012 1:26am Feb 21, 2012 1:26am
Quoting N_Trader
Thanks for providing more insights, V. It's a great quote from Dongsky

It happened to me before.. 10% is a lot of pain to take for me... n if I go for 1%, chances are, I have to cut early and market may turn after that to offer rescue opportunities. I guess I still have to work out that figure for myself, but it's great hearing from experienced traders like yourself.

Hopefully cuthbert will be able to share his views.

P.S. so far, I never turn on wind... I am still not confident of doing that.

Regards

i cant flip too...its my issue still..

V

PS: i just made the DD close to 3.25% and booked 2% loss and now only have 1.2% running loss...
  • #31,245
  • Feb 21, 2012 1:40am Feb 21, 2012 1:40am
Quoting indianguyinny24
i cant flip too...its my issue still..

V

PS: i just made the DD close to 3.25% and booked 2% loss and now only have 1.2% running loss...
Alirght friends,

Booked a total of 2.85% loss... but it was good fight...again need to go office tomorrow so my time window limits my fight many times...

V
  • #31,246
  • Feb 21, 2012 1:46am Feb 21, 2012 1:46am
Quoting simpleman
it requires experience, need looking at thousand of charts, how much market normally retrace after any up move. What if i say stay close by 10 pips, how much capital you would need if price is away 200 pips from your scout and you already have several positions.

If work out on the excel sheet all the calculation we might will get closer to the picture.

I do loose out on rescues but I know if I can get to certain level of balance in my capital account and keep the position size smaller then it will be very difficult for the market to beat me...
Thanks simpleman,

Yes, experience... that will have to come with time. Still working on it and practicing. I recall fti saying that he manages a daylight limits close to 500mio with a scout size of 2mio. Hope i'm not wrong about that. So bascially, I try to structure my account in the same manner... except that I am using a slightly more conservative ratio of scout:daylight.

Maybe the key is really to stay closer to market price. I will have to work that out on a demo first. Hopefully I can share more after my research/demo.

regards
  • #31,247
  • Feb 21, 2012 1:48am Feb 21, 2012 1:48am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Alirght friends,

Booked a total of 2.85% loss... but it was good fight...again need to go office tomorrow so my time window limits my fight many times...

V
Sounds like a prudent move my friend...

I admire your humilty....

regards
  • #31,248
  • Feb 21, 2012 2:01am Feb 21, 2012 2:01am
was watching your minds.

observed that you focus is on P&L and not markets.

those trading euro now, you are playing with fire.
Just for info i have small longs in aud and cable.
and waiting for the manipulation of the euro buy stops.
The market seems too short for too long already.
I believe can be time spring cleaning some soon.
But i will not feed the euro manipulation.

There is talk of tier 1 nameless analyst talking weak usd/yen.
So generally i believe they caught short in usd/yen.
the yen should be in distribution mode for at least a couple of weeks after this strong dip, and oil prices should dictate her volatility.


regards
  • #31,249
  • Feb 21, 2012 2:05am Feb 21, 2012 2:05am
Quoting cuthbert


is difficult chief. will try be a peaceful warrior.

Salute and good night
ok then no investiture.
Hone your skills slowly.
Hold to your peace of mind.


regards
  • #31,250
  • Feb 21, 2012 2:12am Feb 21, 2012 2:12am
now that the bail out is "agreed".
I guess is time they start thinking about the next bailout plan.
Don't want get caught unprepared like they did this time.
But humans always understimates or over estimates.
Thats our nature.

regards
  • #31,251
  • Edited 4:05am Feb 21, 2012 2:41am | Edited 4:05am
Quoting fti
ok then no investiture.
Hone your skills slowly.
Hold to your peace of mind.
noted chief

regards
  • #31,252
  • Feb 21, 2012 2:49am Feb 21, 2012 2:49am
@Vic!
not nice hear about your loss and Sachin not reaching hundredth ton again of course.

@Simpleman!
Vic is our neighbour.

@N!
Need anything be said after reading thread about rescues and attacks? only if i could watch someone like chief sizing in diff terrains. my personal experience is good but need chisel my skills definitely.
ask specifics my friend if you feel like.

and yes there is no one like chief.

regards
  • #31,253
  • Feb 21, 2012 2:58am Feb 21, 2012 2:58am
Quoting cuthbert

@Simpleman!
Vic is our neighbour.


regards
yes i know he is, soon we will play cricket with him.
  • #31,254
  • Feb 21, 2012 3:00am Feb 21, 2012 3:00am
Quoting simpleman
yes i know he is, soon we will play cricket with him.
hope to beat him. who will be the neutral umpire?

regards
  • #31,255
  • Feb 21, 2012 3:19am Feb 21, 2012 3:19am
Quoting fti
was watching your minds.

observed that you focus is on P&L and not markets.

regards
Sry chief, the "stiff-necked" side of me is acting up again.

I will go re-read your teachings.

regards
  • #31,256
  • Feb 21, 2012 3:24am Feb 21, 2012 3:24am
Quoting cuthbert
hope to beat him. who will be the neutral umpire?

regards
They are very good at cricket, will be hard work and our boys want easy work.
  • #31,257
  • Feb 21, 2012 5:21am Feb 21, 2012 5:21am
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...81K0GS20120221
  • #31,258
  • Feb 21, 2012 6:19am Feb 21, 2012 6:19am
Sorry I am late to add my bit, but was busy trading earlier so could not reply.


To me attacks and rescues are traded basically the same with the one difference being the rescue uses more troops to get you out quickly.


I personally before I trade an attack work out a level on the chart that if price finishes beyond that I have made a wrong/bad entry, so I will remove about half my position early (cutting down my risk) and write that loss on the top corner of my chart (my field hospital where some may survive their injuries), I find I can then continue to trade/fight/capture pips without to much thought of my increasing loss/bleeding, I have found that for me leaving all of a bad trade/attack in that may get out of hand quickly makes me unable to concentrate on anything else, cutting half early allows me to continue capturing pips elsewhere because I am not desperately waiting for an opportunity to launch an ill timed rescue. when the market is back in my favour I then rescue the remaining half first, I then (if the market allows) mount or continue with another rescue to regain the amount of pips that I took out of the battle early (bringing my wounded soldiers out of hospital, if you like), if I can not get a second or continued rescue then my remaining soldiers are dead and I move on, I have found that developing a very simple way of getting a warning using the news and a higher time frame that the market is/may be about to turn, then having a point of confirmation of the new trend is very useful and seems to be reliable (stops me trying to predict top/bottoms and lets me just enjoy the trend in the lower time frame I trade M5) this way my cues as to which way to trade and for rescue are the same (I can not see why they should be different?), so in my view I am not taking chances by entering a rescue out of desperation (in hostile territory).


I realise that I do not trade as fti does, I am not at the stage where I can be so aggressive, confident, react as quickly and watch as many charts as he does, as already said I do not think we should try to carbon copy his way of trading, so my way tries to do it a bit more conservatively trading one pair not so aggresively over a longer period of time (I do watch the 3k's), while trying to use what I think I have managed to pick up from this thread.


To me the one of the most important parts of trading has become constantly adjusting myself and my environment (emotions to a stable level) to be able to deal with/survive in the market and the rest seems to then flow into place, i am able to see and do what is necessary to get the job done. I never realised how important that was until I read this thread and it seems to also spill over into my personal life as well, a great hidden benefit I found.


A post I find very insightful and i believe opens up many many ways to understand the charts/price while trying to find your own way and putting to use what is in this thread is post 33, I have posted the link below.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post1731476


thanks 'V' for the v


regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #31,259
  • Feb 21, 2012 7:18am Feb 21, 2012 7:18am
Quoting Zoran
mijamoto, I have known you for a little while now and you have huge potential and lots of motivation so keep it up! It's good to see you on this thread!
Hi Zora,

When I read this thread, I get confused and headache sometimes..it is really long and do not know how to put all important information to find out FTI's method to learn and apply it..Do you have any summary and most important parts of his method written in a file ? thank you in advance..
  • #31,260
  • Feb 21, 2012 7:30am Feb 21, 2012 7:30am
Quoting phil13
Sorry I am late to add my bit, but was busy trading earlier so could not reply.


To me attacks and rescues are traded basically the same with the one difference being the rescue uses more troops to get you out quickly.


I personally before I trade an attack work out a level on the chart that if price finishes beyond that I have made a wrong/bad entry, so I will remove about half my position early (cutting down my risk) and write that loss on the top corner of my chart (my field hospital where some may survive their injuries), I find I can...
Hi Phil,

Much appreciate your kind gesture to share

Coincidentally, I was reading the same post which you have quoted
Yes. It's clearer to me now. I realised that at the end of the day, it's a training for my mindset. I have to learn to work on positive thinking and stay positive. I realised that when I meditate on good thoughts and beautiful things, it comes to me naturally. However, if I let greed/fear creeps in, it's going to affect my overall performance.

So glad that I can learn from and with you.

Regards
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