Yet another trading journal

hi tunera.

1m and 5m..even 15m would scare the pants off me having 35x exposure on.

next week can you post your entry area's (box) before they happen, with this style of trading you must have a support/resistance area in your mind first, then i can watch the trade develop.

thanks

Regardless the words written in the previous posts about friday etc., NY has opened it's session and so we do.
Again AudUsd, the market continue what looks like to be a probable accumulation process, the setup-structure is always the same, 1.0782 is the point to look for secure our trades (stop at be), 1.0800 the first target, 1.0850 the extended one.

P.s.
Kraven: ok i will post the setups/entry zones before the trades to take place, but sometime like now you see i missed the perfect entry (the below box), however i will try my best!


Update: i forgot to write, exposure at 25x (update: 30x) the capital balance.
If price fall below 1.0746 we'll open a new 5x buy trade.

Update2:
Price fall below the low of today, we bought again total exposure now 38x, will wait from here, a long squeeze is not very probable but still possible, let's see.

thanks tunera

the laws of probability and the sheer nature of FX dictates the you must have had at least one (more like several) of these trades go against you. You can't just keep topping up your entries when this happens. at 35x exposure the market doesn't have to fall far for you to go bust. how do you deal with this with no tight SL? from what i can see at this moment your around 20pips down and falling.

That's a good question, basically with this kind of trading (35x exposure for example and no sl), it is very important to be right or at least understand what is happening on every trade, otherwise the failure is a sure thing.

And also understanding what happen in the market on any given time, still the market can and do act in a crazy way sometime (something like an errating behaviour, it happen from time to time but it's usually just temporanely).

How i deal with this, i just stay focused and deal on what's happening now, what's really happening on any given moment, and when things will not go as expected in that moment i will deal with such situation, and depending on the situation itself i will know how to act (for example cut the losses, or add to a particular set of trades, or wait.. yeah basically there are only 3 things a trader can do eheh).

I hope my answer is understandable and don't sound rude, but i really can deal only with what's happening now, otherwise i can become crazy very easily
You know what i mean, "35x leverage omg if price go there it's such a big problem", i like to stay in peace as much as possible.

Here we are, a longsqueeze was improbable but possible, and it happened.

On the other hand, price looks like to have respected a rising trendline, we just added a little buy again on such point, the setup remain valid.

hello Tunera. thanks for your explanation

However according to your new post you've added a load more entries. if you were at 35x (or 3.5 lots) in your first post. look at your last you must be about 80x now. the AU continues to moves down and the market is getting closer to a weekend close. hope this trade turns for you.

Hello, yeah it's going down, maybe targeting yesterday low. Let's see, right now is trending down but it's slightly oversold, i still think this can be a retrace, must see how it do in the next hours.
Exposure now 47x hot! But we may lower it down in the near future.

look at 1hr...may be heading for that trendline (last 2 lows) perfectly parrellel with last 2 highs...it's a stretch another 30pips..but it might

so what happened tunera?

The current situation, our trading exposure on the Aussie, the coming week / days, the other markets.

Let's start with the current market situation (regardless our particular trading activity), we see the aud-usd, on a strong uptrend that last from 10 years, it have up and down but is a strong trend mostly correlated with gold and US Indices markets.

A few words about the correlation:
As we say, audusd and commodities/us indices are slightly correlated, and it is interesting to see also the gold situation, it is very near to what looks like a good resistance that can be hitten in the very short future (like, this coming week).
The Us indices too are near they all-time highs, with the nasdaq currently making new all-time highs, and the dow and s&p500 just to break the last year highs.

From a foundamental point of view, markets are somehow stopped from the greece soap opera, waiting for some good news (or for the default news), here we should consider that tomorrow moonday some good news in this greek story may come out from the euro-zone meetings.

So, overall we have a tons of IF and MAY, this may happen, what if this happen, etc. nothing sure of course but the near-future bullish scenario for the financial markets is a probable one in my opinion.

Let's try now to make some light in this darkness of possibilities, technical analysis can be a good way to do it:
AudUsd and Gold:
AudUsd is currently ranging/accumulating/retracing after a long up-wave that did bring the pair to october 2011 highs, this wave of buys is intended to bring the pair on it's all-time highs (2011 july highs) to complete the longtime bullish market structure, but what we focus for the moment is the short-term scenario, same market structure (a bullish structure to be completed), but the pair need to hit the wednesday 8 february (2012) high to complete it.
Once broken it may spike to the 2011 october highs, or make a new retracement, we don't care as at that point our protective stops will be already in place.
Interestingly, on a break of wednesday (15 february 2012) highs the pair found resistance and pointed down again, this isn't a big problem as the 8 february highs are still the target and the retracement-structure is still intact.
What i mean is, we're going probably to see price at 1.0850 level soon.

The Gold, is technically in the same situation as audusd, with it's market structure more clear, we'll probably see new highs soon.


The problem with our particular trading plan is that our exposure is somehow big and at the moment we can't afford price to go other 100-200 pips against us, that's why we will monitor the situation closely on moonday (it may be a high volatility day cause of the greek news coming out) and take actions if necessary.



Update:
A final thought about a recent news:
"China Cuts Bank Reserve Reqs; Exports Look ‘Grim’ – Bloomberg"
This will also affect the aud-usd trading on market open, we're probably going to see some volatility in the near future, the situation is interesting from different points of view, our exposure is big, stay focused is the key, and may everything go to the well!

Below images of AudUsd (hourly and daily chart) and Gold (daily chart).

See you on market open!

Update on AudUsd Trades:

We've closed the trades at market open, as the price was just 5pips away from our protective Stoploss, i've just decided to take the profit at market open.

Update: forgot to write, +6.9% on this trade.

More to comes

Intraday Gold Trade, exposure 7x.
Target: the high of today.


Update: Just close some minutes later, +1%.

Hello, a new trade on the way, this one will be more "long-term" than the previous Gold trade.

We're buying usdchf, the pair just hit the previous support, and looks like a good buy-opportunity.

Actual exposure: 25x.
Target: previous week high.

Image below


Update:
The trade has been closed at b/e.
Reasons: We look forward to make a similar trade on eurchf.
More details on the post below

Hello,
Today we're going to post a trade call, a trade we're taking posted BEFORE the entry orders are filled.

This particular trade is on EurChf, the setup is pretty similar to the usdchf one, with a few advantages:

1) We're not tied to the us dollar performances.
2) EurChf have some kind of safety due to the SNB intervention (the SNB clearly states that they are not going to allow the pair to fall below the 1.20 level).
3) The setup looks good, and we're going to see a major upmove both in a case where EUR get stronger or USD get stronger.

Said this, our entries consist on 4 limit orders, with a total expected exposure of 40x the account balance.

This trade have no target, however the first point we may look to take our profits is in the 1.2130 area, the second one is in the 1.2470 area, the third one is in the 1.32 area.

This is a long-term trade, the risk-reward is good, we're not going to risk more than 60pips, but on the reward side expectations are much higher.

Hoping to get filled on today market activity, more to comes!

Update:
Entry plan changed, as the limit orders stand within 10pips from market price, and there is a probability to see a scenario where the price may go up before even fill them, at this point we've just entered at market price, and removed the limit orders.

Intraday trade for nzdusd (20x).

Target high of yesterday (0.8430), action point (where we'll move stop to b/e) 0.8405

Update:
Target moved to 0.8573, if there will be some action let's ride it.

Update2:
The new action point is 0.83907, exposure is now 30x, may add more in the nearterm

Update:
Price fall again on supports, we've added some positions there, total exposure now 40x, action point 83907...

We're exposing pretty big, but this looks like a normal accumulation process, no worries at the moment


Update:
Price just fall 50pips, pretty ugly as an accumulation process

Trade closed, stopped out

Mmm, price jumped on our action point, at that point our stoploss has been placed to lock-in the profits, looking for further strenght, but well we just got stopped out.
Not sure what caused this spike, however.. it's ok, we may enter again if further strenght developes.
Just +2% on this trade.

A new wave of buyers joined the market on the news about the second greece bailout deal, this sell (16x) is against such event, basically we look to hunt the stops of this new wave of buyers.

A stupid trade? We'll know soon.

Indeed is a riskious trade, but we're hedged from the eurchf 40x buys, if things get ugly we may get out from both trade sacrificing the eurchf profits.

More to comes!

Update:
action point: 1.5809 (low of today)
TP moved to 1.5757

Update2:
The pair remained in a range during the past hours, still any scenario is possible, but the idea of a probable downmove is not soo stupid at the moment, with the price struggling to make new high, this suggest that we may observing a sell-accumulation process.
The target has been moved to 1.5757, the action point (where we'll put stoploss at b/e) is still the low of today at 1.5809, we've added some other little positions, standing currently at 20x exposure on this pair.
A important news for the gbp will come in 30 minutes, probably we'll see then some action soon.

Last thought of the post:
Yes this looks like a stupid countertrend trade, if don't work out in the next hour we'll close it.

We've closed our trades (both eurchf and gbpusd).
Not really a big sense in this exit, surely a premature one. However, that's ok we just closed both trades with an overall profit of 5.4%.

Maybe we're squeezing too much this pair, but this looks like a good buy opportunity.
20x.

Update:
27x bought now, action point 1.5865, target point 1.5950, we may change our plans if price fall below the 1.5790 level, but if price stay above such level, the target can be easily reached, we'll let this baby run!

Update 2:
exposure now 30x, will not add anymore.