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Beyond the Candles

  • #381
  • Feb 14, 2012 1:32am Feb 14, 2012 1:32am
Quoting Dariusz
Vy accurate anticipation Fxgroup congrats,

I see nw some reversion .....
It is exactly want we want....a deeper RET in order to offer us the right opportunity to buy cheaper !

LOL. Did you have any doubts ?
Nothing personal,just business
  • #382
  • Feb 14, 2012 4:26am Feb 14, 2012 4:26am
AUDSGD

All the TFs are bullish....if it closes above 1.3550 then, the 1.40 BRN becomes the next target !
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Nothing personal,just business
  • #383
  • Feb 14, 2012 9:24am Feb 14, 2012 9:24am
[quote=fxgroup;5381361]
Quoting jerrythedurst
You don't need fractals to show you the swings, all you have to do is to look for HH, HL, LL, LH......you can more than some simple arrows that in RM situation will show only confusion !

All the order are put bellow/above the closer level and always after the candle is close !...If you find it no clear..just let me know !

The cable is not in good moment for trading right now, as the pair is in bullish trend with sellers getting in and buyers making taking profit....it is a good moment for MM !

Thanks again FXGroup- really appreciate you helping my understanding on this!

I understand the importance of placing the order after the close. I was wondering more about whether a candle pattern was required on the D to trigger your entry. For example- say the candle circled in black was closed and that we were in a M / W DT and wanted to take this short trade- would you trade a break of the low -or would you need to see a candle pattern like the one that actually came about?
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pessimism of the intellect and optimism of the will
  • #384
  • Feb 16, 2012 7:50am Feb 16, 2012 7:50am
The black circled candle is a doji that shows me a retest of the RM to the left, so a battle between sellers and buyers for the RM and not a confirmation, but just an information.
On the right chart, take a look at the price (sellers reaction) after the sellers took the control with the BEOB...THAT is a confirmation !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #385
  • Feb 16, 2012 8:13am Feb 16, 2012 8:13am
fxgroup

Which is more impt ? wick or body in the candle, but .....
I think we have to look beyond the candle so buyers and sellers ....
so in conclusion both . Isn't it ??? ;-)
  • #386
  • Feb 16, 2012 11:30am Feb 16, 2012 11:30am
Bouth ,bodies and tails are important, but crucial for me are the bodies and their close, meanwhile the tails give us very precious informations about price attempt, rejection, liquidity, etc.
Nothing personal,just business
  • #387
  • Feb 16, 2012 11:38pm Feb 16, 2012 11:38pm
Hi everyone.
This is my first post in this thread.
Thank Fxgroup for sharing this very useful knowledge. I read all thread and found a lot of interesting information. Now I need to practice it.

I noticed that you using both Static and Dynamic RM. And like you said you trading in RM from S to R and versus versa. My question is - what are you doing if you have different signal from different RM. For example Static RM shows you Buy (price closed above level), but Dynamic RM shows you Sell (bounce from level)? Do you prefer one or other or you staying out of market?

Thank you.
  • #388
  • Feb 17, 2012 2:20pm Feb 17, 2012 2:20pm
[quote=Gerkl;5393908]Hi everyone.
Quote
This is my first post in this thread.
Thank Fxgroup for sharing this very useful knowledge. I read all thread and found a lot of interesting information. Now I need to practice it.
Hi Gerkl and thanks for your partecipation.

Quote
I noticed that you using both Static and Dynamic RM. And like you said you trading in RM from S to R and versus versa. My question is - what are you doing if you have different signal from different RM. For example Static RM shows you Buy (price closed above level), but Dynamic RM shows you Sell (bounce from level)? Do you prefer one or other or you staying out of market?

Thank you.
I have more choises: to wait the P to turn back in satic RM in dynamic direction where the RM R will act as R again, to wait the dynamic and static to turn in the same direction or just as simple as you said to stay out of the market.

P.S. Nice to have you around, any question you have, feel free to ask !
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Nothing personal,just business
  • #389
  • Feb 17, 2012 6:30pm Feb 17, 2012 6:30pm
Hi everyone,

I am learning here. Fxgroup and all, please help me to improve.

I have read each post very carefully. And now here is my first analysis following Fxgroup's style.

Everybody please feel free to teach me if you find i neglect or misundestand anything. Thanks in advance.

Month:
1) There was a range market last 4 month, from 2011 May to 2011 August, April may include

2) Now the price return to this range, reach the bottom line of the 1.0685, close of the May

To my understanding what i learned from this thread, i am expecting to short here, as it broke down the support and dropped hard and now retrace back

Weekly:
1) The week of Aug. 28, and Oct. 23, the price retraced twice and dropped twice, now it is the third time retrace into the range

2) I am trying to short inside the range, 1.0822, which is the open of the week of July 24, there is big resistance, so the first check point is there
, also confluence with round numer 1.0800 nearby

I am wondering whether i can make a short nearby 1.0822

Daily:

1) Feb. 8, there is a pin bar, later on a confirmed evening star or three bar reverse

2) From the daily, close of the Feb. 7th, 1.0793, there is a big resistance

3) I missed the first entry, so waiting for the retrace to 1.0793,

As fxgroup teached, a pending order, now it was filled.

The target would be the 1.0238, i.e. the close of the week of Nov. 27, 2011,

SL would be the 1.0850, the swing high of the week of Feb. 5.

If the range is broke up, then waiting for a retrace back and make a long.
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Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #390
  • Feb 17, 2012 7:00pm Feb 17, 2012 7:00pm
Thanks for reply. I guess I just need more practice to see the big picture.
I have another question to you if you don't mind. I can see that all your posts has almost clear chart with one or two lines on it. And you said that you watching different market. Sow my question is do you save all you previous drawings or do you redraw them every time from scratch. And how do you remember which pair (or other market) worth to keep eye on it ?

Thanks.
  • #391
  • Feb 18, 2012 1:53am Feb 18, 2012 1:53am
AUDUSD overall bullish
daily consolidation in RM
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  • #392
  • Feb 18, 2012 2:43am Feb 18, 2012 2:43am
Quoting Dariusz
AUDUSD overall bullish
daily consolidation in RM
Actually, i would have the following learning by reading fxgroup's post in this thread

1) Month ranging

2) Broke down the ranging and dropped fast from the month ranging

3) Now retrace back to the month ranging

If i dont misunderstand, from the above three criterias, this would be a good short chance. Actually daily gives the confirmation.

The only issue is this is the third time retrace back, possibly broke up the ranging.

I like the logic way behind fxgroup's method, the AU actually is a good match to fxgroup's method

Dariusz, thanks for your response. But i cant find the logic behind your figures. will you please explain what would be the logic from your figures, i mean following Fxgroup's method. You may have a clear explanation to the logic behind your figures, thanks!



Thanks!
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #393
  • Feb 18, 2012 1:20pm Feb 18, 2012 1:20pm
[quote=szpowerx;5396944]
Quote
Hi everyone,


I have read each post very carefully.
Hi szpowerx and welcome !


Quote
I am wondering whether i can make a short nearby 1.0822

All the TF are bullish and D is in RM above the M level.

Just a personal consideration.....I see many traders waiting the bullish price to reach to a R level in order to short a certain pair...but this means to pick the tops and bottoms and we just don't want this, because is very very risky...and why would we short a bullish pair ?...woundn't be a CT ?..and we want to trade with the trend !...wouldn't be safer to see first some bearish trend on higher TF, in order to trade D RETs ?

This is avery common mistake made by so many traders and we have to learn to avoid these attempting situation !

Thanks for your contribution and any question you have, please feel free to ask !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #394
  • Edited Feb 19, 2012 2:40am Feb 18, 2012 9:42pm | Edited Feb 19, 2012 2:40am
Thanks Fxgroup and Dariusz,

I now know i should hammer down the trend in higher TF (Month and Week).

I would like to ask several more questions, still use the AUDUSD as an example,

1) How to determine the trend is bullish in the month chat? In my chart, I tag the higher-high/high, higer-low/low, is this a correct way?

Since there is a higher-high, higher-low on the month chart, so it is a bullish in month chart, right?


2) As the gray box covered, can i assume this area as a range market? The critical line would be the close of the July 2011, price 1.0125, and the close of the Nov, 2010, price 0.9595, are these two lines labeled correct?

3)
As the post in the first page, there would be two methods, here the method a would be considered:

"
a-Identify if the price is trendy market(up/down) on monthly and weekly charts, wait for a retracement with price action confirmation and entry on daily chart (buy at resistance and sell at support level)."

Here the price is trendy up on monthly line, waiting for the resistance line is broke up, i.e. the line 1.0125, and wait for a retracement with price action confirmation and entry on the daily chart nearby the 1.0125

Is this correct?

Thanks in advance!

Best Regards

Hi Dariusz , thanks for your comments, i just use the audusd month as an example to learn from you guys. Sorry for not write clear. Thanks!
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Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #395
  • Feb 19, 2012 2:28am Feb 19, 2012 2:28am
[quote=szpowerx;5397758]Thanks Fxgroup and Dariusz,

Hi szpowerx,

Tks for joining , Fxgroup putted lots of explanation in previous post, please look for that.

You right Trend ident. = hl+hh up, lh+ll dwn it is simple starting with M+W.
And behind each candle are buyers+sellers = PRICE in every graphical form.

Please if You put your chart try to catch M, W and which pair You want to present, which was naot visable on yours charts.

Thanks and welcome .
  • #396
  • Feb 19, 2012 3:38am Feb 19, 2012 3:38am
Quoting szpowerx
Thanks Fxgroup and Dariusz,

I now know i should hammer down the trend in higher TF (Month and Week).

I would like to ask several more questions, still use the AUDUSD as an example,

1) How to determine the trend is bullish in the month chat? In my chart, I tag the higher-high/high, higer-low/low, is this a correct way?

Since there is a higher-high, higher-low on the month chart, so it is a bullish in month chart, right?


2) As the gray box covered, can i assume this area as a range market? The critical line would be the close of the July 2011,...
In a RM you don't really look at swings as hard as you do in a trend.
You will indeed prefer going with the previous trend (i.e. it was bullish, so look for signals on bullish RM swings) but you have to read the market most of all. Ie if you see that long shadow candles start to appear, it means the RM is slowly being overtaken by sellers.

Also, you want to seek for buying opportunities at the base of the RM (since there was a bullish trend) not in the middle or close to the top.

Or - safer - you might want to wait for RM to break upwards, then retrace on daily down to RM former resistance (now acting as support) and seek for price action retracing on such former resistance, confirming the break out.
  • #397
  • Feb 19, 2012 5:43am Feb 19, 2012 5:43am
Thanks very much, dfumagalli!

These are what I learned from your reply

1) Following the previous obvious trend. But caution to the possible reverse such as he long shadow candles.

2) Not to find hard the swing in a RM, it is not as easy as the trend case.

3) Given a up trend case, better to find the buying entry at

(a) base of the RM, i.e. support line nearby the bottom of the RM

(b) Top of the RM, given RM broken upwards and retrace back with daily price acion confirm

(c) Avoid to buy/sell in the middle of the top

Record here, if i misunderstand please let me know.

Thanks again!
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #398
  • Feb 19, 2012 5:48am Feb 19, 2012 5:48am
Dfumagalli,

CADJPY RN 79 tks that was a good one RN ;-)
  • #399
  • Feb 19, 2012 7:33am Feb 19, 2012 7:33am
hi fxg

my gold didn't turn out good.

1st i went short when the bear engulfing candle shown after hitting the RL, so in profit (1st day).
2nd day the bullish engulfing candle popped up, so in loss, and i exited manually afraid of uptrend resuming.

3rd day a bear candle (no trade).
4th day a bear PB (no trade).

5th day i took a short in view of the down momentum from RL, 1st day bearish engulfing & PB, so in profit, but a long wick pushing up after hitting the SL, the trade was still on.

6th & 7 days days in profit.
8th day a bull candle with a long upper wick, so the trade was still on.

9th day a pb shown with a long lower wick hitting on SL the 2nd time, decided ti exit manually.

10th day (last friday) no trade due thinking this could be a range market.

Pls. offer your comment on my trade analysis.
What is your plan for this week on gold?

Thanks for your time and indeed a good thread.
Keep it up.
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  • #400
  • Feb 19, 2012 9:15am Feb 19, 2012 9:15am
Hi Fxgroup and all, i am learning here.

Following please find my analysis to the AUDNZD, please feel free to give your comments.

Thanks in advance!

AUDNZD pair

Month chart:

1) Up trend

2) Support at the 1.2845

3) Last month ncb although nearby

Daily chart:
1) Downtrend retracement

2) Three bar reverse, close above the 1.2845 support

Entry: 1.2853

SL: 1.2780

TP1: 1.3146

TP2: 1.3580
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Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
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