ECB Greek debt swap deal to be completed over weekend

ECB Greek debt swap deal to be completed over weekend

From talking-forex.com

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Feb 16, 2012 10:47am

THE ECB has been playing in the fx game the last 4 weeks making TRILLIONS of euros in profit so NOW they can "afford" to take the haircut on the swap deal. ALL of us retail fx traders have just been PLAYED!!!!

Tw0eleven

Feb 16, 2012 11:39am

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Just admit it...most got played by the EZ. For weeks and weeks we were close to a Greek Debt Deal right???? But never got one. THEN...the EZ comes out and says there won't be a deal until Monday right??? But, BAM, you get one the very next day!!!! Brilliant on the ECBs part!

Tw0eleven

Feb 16, 2012 12:42pm

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Quoting etabeta

Disliked

The Option Pain is 1.30 until 18th Feb so tomorrow will close below 1.31 and above 1.30.

From Monday... who can say?

Ignored

I've often wondered about the major options out there....do you know where you can get that data or is it just the market makers that know the details(that way they can control the market)?

Tw0eleven

Feb 16, 2012 2:54pm

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The only thing I have been able to come up with today is that the Low for today was the 50% Fib level from the 1.26-1.33 rally. And then today's high is the 50% Fib level of the 1.33-1.2973 selloff the past week. Give or take a few pips on my numbers above.

Tw0eleven

Feb 16, 2012 7:23pm

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Quoting Beacon

Disliked

Broken record repeating the same lyrics...

Ignored

Kinda like one of those lights that spin around at night at airports....keeps repeating the same light colors...what's the name of that thing again?

imbonitore

Feb 17, 2012 2:28am

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A LONG-TERM PICTURE IN SHAPING

January saw a decisive move away from the low established in the middle of the month triggering a bullish move over a period of 2 week. Since then we have had another period of 3 weeks – which looks more like volatility than any trend before the move down from 1.3320 at the end of last week to 1.2975 – the low set yesterday.

The move down was one – if extended below yesterday’s low - would have indicated a bearish trend of some substance – and possibly set a move back to yearly low. That’s why so much focus was on 1.3025 as a support level. It was the point which in many ways pulled the trigger - or as it happened – set another and slightly lower new substantial support level. While 1.3025 broke – the new support is 50 pips away and as such – the new low is a new level – but in reality almost the same as the one before.

I underline this as I see the same buyers supporting both levels.

The move from that low and up to this morning’s level was also one of firm character. This was not only some shorts being covered by stops on the way up. We saw some fresh money entering the stage.

I think such money will enter the stage now and strengthen support levels, preventing falls from being anything more than dips as we get from winter into spring. There are substantial purchases of EUROS to be conducted – and they are delayed – predominantly from the uncertainty we have had for months.

These funds will come more into force as three conditions for their entry are met: (1) the EU fiscal integration is formalized (2) short-term uncertainty faints (Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy) and (3) EU macro picture turns

I would assume sovereign wealth funds (China included) to be net buyers of 500 billion Euros. I would further assume bond funds to be buyers of another 100 billion, as I will assume hedge funds to be. More speculative vehicles might add another 100 billion to this. I would assume that there is in total an interest between 750 and 1 000 billion Euros for long EURO - short USD/CHF/JPY composition – the bulk of it against the USD.

So far very little of this amount has come to the market – but that will gradually change. The bulk of it will come into play when Greece is out of the way, when Portugal is not going to be another Greece, when Italian bonds are auctioned comfortably around 5% and more forcefully when the first signs are there that Europe has seen the worst of the global slowdown.

It’s in this perspective that I have mentioned “classical” technical levels (as they were previous turning points) of 1.4550, 1.4970, 1.5150, 1.6250 – and I might add two new ones – 1.6750 and 1.7500.

Yesterday’s turn was not the start of this. It was just another sample of those now preventing falls from being more than dips. There will be more of those – in strength and frequency – and when enough – then decisive moves north will erupt – the first is the one take us above 1.3550. Everything up until that level is volatility. It’s from there it starts.

Until then we might trade the range 1.30-1.3450 for a few sessions more.

from TOR

iwjw

Feb 16, 2012 11:47am

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don't get confused with the ECB deal...it's got nothing to do with the private bondholders...it's simply an exchange old bonds -> new bonds held by the ECB
So this deal will be done by monday....but makes me wonder why that caused a runup in e/u, because Draghi already said it in a press conference that they are going to make this kind of exchange

wawasalsa

Feb 16, 2012 10:49am

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i like this comments (thumbs up)...i feel that i am in Prostitution club

Quoting shamc

Disliked

these all are bullshits,the whole day they spend to fuck it, and then in the night they come with new condome

Ignored

wawasalsa

Feb 16, 2012 2:53pm

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i wonder if these traders using the news and tweeter as tools and maybe they pay for the producers? just to put it in the exact time for them and then we run after the news like idiots

Quoting jonahky7

Disliked

Commercial traders ain't bother about what e shit goes on in e world cos its only profit n
N bonus they r after. Anything else they will say "f u"

Ignored

eqshack

Feb 16, 2012 10:40am

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fuckin IDIOTS..keep it coming!

shahroodi

Feb 16, 2012 11:04am

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yep...rumor mill is on track healthy...wait'en for fade of this rumor in 1 hour

pemully

Feb 16, 2012 10:48pm

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basically there is a huge net short positions on EU so stop hunting is the only intelligent play.
long term EU trend is still down.

tomiko

Feb 16, 2012 10:49am

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that just give me a best position to place a short again!!
WOOOHOOOOOO!!

BrunargarFx

Feb 16, 2012 10:46am

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Whatever works - I'm long

yusbassri

Feb 16, 2012 11:40am

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"greed & fear" rules.

urulion

Feb 16, 2012 9:50pm

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Im tired of all this ridiculous stuff from Greece, ECB, and the whole Euro Zone... Funny how certain people and enterprises, can be jailed for insider trading?? but these big players can manipulate the market, and rip all the little investors off, yet it is ok. No wonder only 5% make money on forex, its probably them.

torkay77

Feb 16, 2012 10:58am

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damn Euro today bull ... tom bear again

.. i trade USDJPY now..no matter what happens it simply goes up

torkay77

Feb 16, 2012 11:39am

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i do not short before 1.3144..there is confluence area

Beacon

Feb 16, 2012 7:08pm

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Broken record repeating the same lyrics...

Feb 16, 2012 10:41am

hahahahaha

Feb 16, 2012 11:03am

Feb 16, 2012 11:07am

Quoting priyobagos;

Disliked

taiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

Ignored

kang mas priyo pasti gagal sampe tai di bawa2 kl cebok yg bersih ya kang hehehe

safdarhashmi

Feb 16, 2012 10:53am

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another big farrrrrrrrrrrtt........this time ecb

jillsaab

Feb 16, 2012 11:10am

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I have no faith in their words anymore...seriously

jaygee

Feb 16, 2012 11:23am

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just scalp it. the daily and 4h trends are definitely down. the 60m trend was down but that was broken today. doubt that holds long though. there are plenty of trade opportunities in both directions up

Quoting Guest

Disliked

How come everytime eur goes down out comes a statement to reverse the trend. 2 days ago it was from the Chinese Premier in support of the eurozone, now this news. Same thing happened a few times in the past several weeks, statement or news from somebody or the other. Perhaps, 1.30 is the bottom threshold. It seems risky to hold short positions in the currency, because of this type of manipulation.

Ignored

jaygee

Feb 16, 2012 11:44am

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one thing i noticed about these twitter and talking Forex live posts are a lot of times they come out AFTER Europe equity sessions are over. Once Europe traders are done, eur/usd volume is down and it is easier to move eur/usd. Is anyone fronting these news moves? I think that is a good question.

d3cimus

Feb 16, 2012 12:20pm

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C`mon guys, be serious. It`s not the euro up, it„s the US dollar down. Read all the graphs....
And the master of the pupets is FED. Exports must be sustained. Not to talk about the elections.
So read the graphs again. Euro is the same. US dollar is moving down.

jonahky7

Feb 16, 2012 2:11pm

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Can't really explain e move today, 50% retrace nor risk on is not in my dictionary, e debt swap is not new news drag queen draghi said that last week. Anyway the manipulators have their profit either way. The more news they generate the more cash they generate least Greece default, which we know they we. With e cash generated they simply stuffed us all small traders.

jonahky7

Feb 16, 2012 2:19pm

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Not sure if I want to trade Thursday night n Friday - shit happens n there is a high possibility of risk on for Asian market though usually 30-40 pips range. It might be a risk on tomorrow n Sunday night it's risk off again. If risk on 1.322 is not impossible or even good old 1.33but let's see if it can break 1.3145, it might also be a decoy to cushion the down when e circus freaks can't complete their swap over weekend n awaits the Monday summit. The idiots in Greece supposed to close their deal yesterday but now postpone to next Monday. So rally might be for next Monday.....

jonahky7

Feb 16, 2012 2:21pm

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Maybe from now we should have 200 pips range per day. This way u can throw any shit at it short or long n still win lmao

Quoting wawasalsa

Disliked

between the high of the yeasterday and the low today almost 200 pips ..today return 170 pips if not more .....it is confusing ....

Ignored

jaygee

Feb 16, 2012 2:37pm

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If my avg short is close to top of days range or avg long is close to bottom of days range, i feel confident i will get paid. 3111 avg here short. I have another short order in higher if it goes up there. Probably a lot of shorts got caught on this mornings run up.

jonahky7

Feb 16, 2012 2:37pm

Permalink

Commercial traders ain't bother about what e shit goes on in e world cos its only profit n
N bonus they r after. Anything else they will say "f u"

Quoting Guest

Disliked

what I don't understand about all this manipulation is who are 'they' (cb's, ecb. fed, etc) making the money from...it doesn't take rocket science to be aware of what they are doing - constant stop running, creating confusion, rumour, risk on, risk off...

For a market to exist supposedly there has to be buyers and sellers...logically, based on all the global doom and gloom one would expect selling to have follow thro - longer than a couple of days! But it seems like sweeping down day/s...followed by up/range days...Are the CB's attempting to...

Ignored

jaygee

Feb 16, 2012 4:02pm

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I saw someone post the other day that traders with bloomberg terminals are getting the news before us and delivering it via twitter posts. ofc they have their entries early before they relay the news to us. It made sense

Quoting wawasalsa

Disliked

i wonder if these traders using the news and tweeter as tools and maybe they pay for the producers? just to put it in the exact time for them and then we run after the news like idiots

Ignored

jaygee

Feb 16, 2012 4:05pm

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good post, nice catch. missed it here

Quoting Tw0eleven

Disliked

The only thing I have been able to come up with today is that the Low for today was the 50% Fib level from the 1.26-1.33 rally. And then today's high is the 50% Fib level of the 1.33-1.2973 selloff the past week. Give or take a few pips on my numbers above.

Ignored

jaygee

Feb 16, 2012 4:06pm

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also check the daily 14 sma. almost hit it at top today

Quoting Tw0eleven

Disliked

The only thing I have been able to come up with today is that the Low for today was the 50% Fib level from the 1.26-1.33 rally. And then today's high is the 50% Fib level of the 1.33-1.2973 selloff the past week. Give or take a few pips on my numbers above.

Ignored

jonahky7

Feb 16, 2012 4:07pm

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It's what I call currency war rather than atomic bombs. They buy n sell they don't just buy. Unles real money is involve I mean real money., they have nothing to lose trading stocks n currency press of button. But it's just moi opinion all the events happening looks orchestrated they synchronised so perfectly, perhaps it's not Greece they r after, it's the millions of rogue retail traders they f getting money from today is good example. Don't forget fed is trying to weaken dollar as much as they can. If u ask how come they can do it, its one of the reason y us is in trillion deficit

Quoting Guest

Disliked

jonahky7...

I disagree, commercial traders have to buy and sell, eg, energy, they attempt to get best price for it - yet still have to buy it for next year, quarter, etc - no matter what price - but ultimately this uncertainty does affect commercial traders - their profit and loss, share price, which in turn prolongs the economic downturn, and still begs the question of who is moving the market then? Are the ( I don't know whether to say CB's/ Govt's/whoever) betting against each other? Taking turns? With all the order info they have - Who are...

Ignored

jonahky7

Feb 16, 2012 4:12pm

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I did a 50% cal, mentioned in my other post, it still does not tally call me cynical but it smells fishy with this move anyway trade accordinly if risk on is still on tomorrow, possible with the coming monday mtg then high we go but i am not going to trade on friday anyway. Good luck

Quoting Tw0eleven

Disliked

The only thing I have been able to come up with today is that the Low for today was the 50% Fib level from the 1.26-1.33 rally. And then today's high is the 50% Fib level of the 1.33-1.2973 selloff the past week. Give or take a few pips on my numbers above.

Ignored

jonahky7

Feb 17, 2012 12:33am

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I think e only difference with stock market is that forex there is no danger like the stock companies going bust, Tho we know Greece is going bust but all e euro leader liars r pretending it won't be. I can close n open whenever i want though its a risky play. But forex is highly manipulated by some shit , cant beat them but join them. I agree with your stock market analysis in many ways

Quoting Guest

Disliked

jonahky7 - cheers - currency war - no-one should buy and hold, so what happens to stock market as result? Suppose now that every dog and his puppy have recognised these market conditions, time for change again, 1930's - only so many times market can be manipulated before people jump out windows. I was a long term buy and hold aka warren buffet safe stock holder, you know financials, staples, safe companies, lost almost everything in 2008-9 I'd worked and saved for, twas naivety tho, had no idea how any market worked...never again will I invest...

Ignored

jonahky7

Feb 17, 2012 12:38am

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Scalp rather then trend instead but seriously euro pair is so choppy n frustrating sometime e moment I take a position at r n s lines it gives some heart attack when it goes sideway for a while before doing anything lol. Patience is a virtue

Quoting Guest

Disliked

It overly risky to take position on ANY currency right now. Look at charts BESIDES euro. Freakin wacked out all over the place. Every financial market is being affected by this constant BS. This Greek tragedy has the markets hostage because you can't take a position because who knows when the next rumor or headline willcome out. Only to be contradicted hours later. Personally I am fed up.? Ill not take any positions until this crap is over.

Ignored

doctortyby

Feb 17, 2012 5:21am

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They will probably negociate a little more next week...
Or maybe they will settle for a Solution this week-end...
It is actually the same thing for the Market Impact from the Retail Point of View.
Greece is not the Real Problem in Europe.
Can anyone argue on that statement?...

To YOur success,
Doctortyby

wawasalsa

Feb 16, 2012 11:00am

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all are expected !!!thank god i was out

Feb 16, 2012 11:01am

pay back time

Feb 16, 2012 11:11am

Feb 16, 2012 11:11am

(worry)

Feb 16, 2012 11:12am

8-)

Feb 16, 2012 11:23am

this rumor suppose to hold the euro over 1.31 till monday and nothing gonna habben as usual ..and we keep eating this shit over and over ....

wawasalsa

Feb 16, 2012 11:37am

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i think you might make one more short coz the high could break one more time ...or ?

Quoting jaygee

Disliked

i shorted 3079 and 3114

Ignored

wawasalsa

Feb 16, 2012 11:41am

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(y)

Quoting Vexel

Disliked

thanks

Ignored

Feb 16, 2012 12:58pm

idiots win

Feb 16, 2012 2:10pm

i advise to not overload ,for me still out and waiting for the market close then i will short and pet in asia and close maybe before europe.....

Quoting jaygee

Disliked

short add eur/usd 3140

Ignored

wawasalsa

Feb 16, 2012 2:19pm

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between the high of the yeasterday and the low today almost 200 pips ..today return 170 pips if not more .....it is confusing ....

wawasalsa

Feb 16, 2012 2:24pm

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yeah good idea isnt it?

FX Tsunami

Feb 16, 2012 12:07pm

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Everytime they announce something like this, i could see that their sense of humour is increasing

blanco1958

Feb 16, 2012 10:41am

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Bullshit!

http://www.infowars.com/saving-the-cancer-greece-sacrificed-in-name-of-dying-eu/

Kis Zoltan

Feb 16, 2012 10:40am

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With the withdraw of the ECB. No other chance...lol

Kis Zoltan

Feb 16, 2012 12:41pm

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Not only the export on focus, but the US debt too!
Bigger and bigger on currency side!

mk77ch

Feb 16, 2012 11:06am

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cool then all problems of the euro zone are finally fixed!

legacy

Feb 16, 2012 11:43am

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They will keep on patching thing up until the whole EU falls apart in one big collapse take the rest of the world down withit.

DrHairyBalls

Feb 16, 2012 10:39am

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i cant read this anymore

Feb 16, 2012 10:39am

lol

Feb 16, 2012 10:40am

First no bridge loan now ECB takes care of the debt swap, what an irony! LOL

shamc

Feb 16, 2012 10:43am

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these all are bullshits,the whole day they spend to fuck it, and then in the night they come with new condome

atif9150

Feb 16, 2012 10:43am

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i satisfied with jonaky7

Feb 16, 2012 10:45am

eur drops booo

Feb 16, 2012 10:48am

nice men always sayes nice things as said shamc

fins93

Feb 16, 2012 10:49am

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If this happens then I think EURO may cross 1.35 within days...!!!

Feb 16, 2012 10:52am

good euro buy

Feb 16, 2012 10:53am

Quoting shamc

Disliked

these all are bullshits,the whole day they spend to fuck it, and then in the night they come with new condome

Ignored

very funnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnny

mahimahi

Feb 16, 2012 10:57am

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the politicians and the big banksters!..again!!

mahimahi

Feb 16, 2012 10:58am

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they'll run those stops..hit rock bottom..then long it goes!

Feb 16, 2012 10:59am

go euro go..

Feb 16, 2012 11:01am

up gold

Feb 16, 2012 11:02am

wat to do with eu now
short at 3154

priyobagos

Feb 16, 2012 11:02am

Permalink

taiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

fahrurriza

Feb 16, 2012 11:03am

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up eur...come on........

clockwork71

Feb 16, 2012 11:06am

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Quoting torkay77

Disliked

damn Euro today bull ... tom bear again .. i trade USDJPY now..no matter what happens it simply goes up

Ignored

Until 80

clockwork71

Feb 16, 2012 11:09am

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Who are these idiots that buy every rumor?

Trader#0201

Feb 16, 2012 11:14am

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How come everytime eur goes down out comes a statement to reverse the trend. 2 days ago it was from the Chinese Premier in support of the eurozone, now this news. Same thing happened a few times in the past several weeks, statement or news from somebody or the other. Perhaps, 1.30 is the bottom threshold. It seems risky to hold short positions in the currency, because of this type of manipulation.

sacrelege

Feb 16, 2012 11:18am

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Quoting clockwork71

Disliked

Who are these idiots that buy every rumor?

Ignored

hmm.. everybody except you? :-)

jaygee

Feb 16, 2012 11:20am

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i shorted 3079 and 3114

Vexel

Feb 16, 2012 11:26am

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Quoting clockwork71

Disliked

Who are these idiots that buy every rumor?

Ignored

i am that idiot

. I waited it today or tomorow

khanarsal

Feb 16, 2012 11:28am

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u r realy such an idiot

Vexel

Feb 16, 2012 11:34am

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Quoting khanarsal

Disliked

u r realy such an idiot

Ignored

thanks

jaygee

Feb 16, 2012 11:40am

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ya maybe so

Quoting wawasalsa

Disliked

i think you might make one more short coz the high could break one more time ...or ?

Ignored

Trader#3DEA

Feb 16, 2012 11:48am

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go long till 1.3435/1.35
and short and that area till 1.25
they delayed to buy on deep eur
eur always going jump after reach 1.2930/75 area, it was historical repeated
fo this day short while reach 1.3145/80 area

another buy covering story by ECB and China damn sck!

etabeta

Feb 16, 2012 11:50am

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The Option Pain is 1.30 until 18th Feb so tomorrow will close below 1.31 and above 1.30.

From Monday... who can say?

jonahky7

Feb 16, 2012 12:03pm

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yep got burnt today, 38 pips lol cos of this

Won't be surprise there will be no deal over weekend! Circus freaks

Trader#2F82

Feb 16, 2012 12:27pm

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Quoting FX Tsunami

Disliked

Everytime they announce something like this, i could see that their sense of humour is increasing

Ignored

sense of stupidity is increasing
yet greece bailout no priced in, at eahc rumor we must see this nonsense????!!!!!!!
they want to manipulate the market why dont they spike it up during the weekend and open the market with a gap higher
instead they always open it with gap lower
stop this manipulation--go play spikes with eurochf or no coz most ordinary traders have long orders so u do not manipulate to help!!!
Enough mean Enough!!!!

Trader#2F82

Feb 16, 2012 12:40pm

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Quoting jonahky7

Disliked

yep got burnt today, 38 pips lol cos of this

Won't be surprise there will be no deal over weekend! Circus freaks

Ignored

let it be a deal---so wat!!!
the world started with greece bailout
how much times they manipulated the market--isnt it time to stop their clown circus games

vnt12

Feb 16, 2012 1:49pm

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I don't care I'm long

olav

Feb 16, 2012 1:52pm

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Best time to go short at 1.3145

jaygee

Feb 16, 2012 1:54pm

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short add eur/usd 3140

Trader#F12F

Feb 16, 2012 2:20pm

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what I don't understand about all this manipulation is who are 'they' (cb's, ecb. fed, etc) making the money from...it doesn't take rocket science to be aware of what they are doing - constant stop running, creating confusion, rumour, risk on, risk off...

For a market to exist supposedly there has to be buyers and sellers...logically, based on all the global doom and gloom one would expect selling to have follow thro - longer than a couple of days! But it seems like sweeping down day/s...followed by up/range days...Are the CB's attempting to stop markets freefalling by intervening and buying? But who from?

I was under the impression that retail traders, syndicate traders could not move market significantly - So, CB's aside, that leaves commercial traders that are long/short- who are they trading against?

Trader#F12F

Feb 16, 2012 2:53pm

Permalink

jonahky7...

I disagree, commercial traders have to buy and sell, eg, energy, they attempt to get best price for it - yet still have to buy it for next year, quarter, etc - no matter what price - but ultimately this uncertainty does affect commercial traders - their profit and loss, share price, which in turn prolongs the economic downturn, and still begs the question of who is moving the market then? Are the ( I don't know whether to say CB's/ Govt's/whoever) betting against each other? Taking turns? With all the order info they have - Who are they profiteering from?

Trader#DC40

Feb 16, 2012 4:05pm

Permalink

Quoting Guest

Disliked

How come everytime eur goes down out comes a statement to reverse the trend. 2 days ago it was from the Chinese Premier in support of the eurozone, now this news. Same thing happened a few times in the past several weeks, statement or news from somebody or the other. Perhaps, 1.30 is the bottom threshold. It seems risky to hold short positions in the currency, because of this type of manipulation.

Ignored

It overly risky to take position on ANY currency right now. Look at charts BESIDES euro. Freakin wacked out all over the place. Every financial market is being affected by this constant BS. This Greek tragedy has the markets hostage because you can't take a position because who knows when the next rumor or headline willcome out. Only to be contradicted hours later. Personally I am fed up.? Ill not take any positions until this crap is over.

Trader#F12F

Feb 16, 2012 5:26pm

Permalink

jonahky7 - cheers - currency war - no-one should buy and hold, so what happens to stock market as result? Suppose now that every dog and his puppy have recognised these market conditions, time for change again, 1930's - only so many times market can be manipulated before people jump out windows. I was a long term buy and hold aka warren buffet safe stock holder, you know financials, staples, safe companies, lost almost everything in 2008-9 I'd worked and saved for, twas naivety tho, had no idea how any market worked...never again will I invest in stockmarket, a lot of people invested in property only to be shafted too. This scenario does not invoke confidence in anything, and not for me personally, but for the trazillions of pension holders, studiers, savers, ordinary folk who have been prudent will end up paying for those who haven't for many years to come. And haven't an effing clue what currencies will do tomorrow, next day, etc, so have stood aside for last few shaftings...