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It's A Heart-Mind Game... Are You Ready?

  • #201
  • Feb 16, 2012 12:13am Feb 16, 2012 12:13am
Quoting ha-pattern
One thing I've had trouble with is lessons from positive experiences in the rest of my life transferring into trading.

I've never been either, yet can relate to how what they do could help in trading.

farmer -- You work with your hands and can see and walk through what works for acres of cropland.
pilot -- Like an explorer knows, you create redundancies in all of your systems and, while keeping track of them, getting done what you set to do, and, the most important thing, returning home.
Could it be that the qualities you need and have developed to be successful in these other areas are just the opposite for success in trading? That is another reason why trading can be difficult to master.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #202
  • Edited 7:30pm Feb 16, 2012 12:46am | Edited 7:30pm
Quoting the redlion
i honestly think you are coming at it the wrong way. it is because people cannot stick to one profitable methodology that they jump around.

once you are confident on your methods then psychology follows
I think what you are saying is that once a trader has traded a profitable methodology for some time, they become confident in it and then the psychology issues are not as serious; i.e. the psychology to trade successfully follows. So jumping around does not allow them to trade one methodology long enough to gain that psychological advantage. But how do they "know" it is profitable: word of mouth?

The point of back-testing the methodology was discussed earlier in the thread. It is easier if a trader feels that they are using a trading approach that is reliable. But, here is my concern: how does a trader get confidence to "test" a system to see if it is profitable so they can have confidence in it later? Are they using a computer generated testing method? By "sticking" do you mean live trading? Confidence is part of the heart-mind loop; the psychology that is supposed to follow, is also needed to start the process?

Because of that issue, I discussed the Courage-Confidence loop earlier in the thread as well. One reason traders tend to jump around is because they hear of or see another trader doing well with a certain methodology, and think that if they try it, they too will be successful. What they don't see is the kind of trader the other person had to become to get to that point.

What I am discussing now are ways to help traders understand and strengthen who they are on the inside so they can benefit from a method that they know is profitable. Your statement..." it is because people cannot stick..."...now, why is that? Who wouldn't want to stick to a profitable methodology? Is it because the method is not working for them? And why is that? That is what I am after: helping a trader get to the bottom of that why. There's a whole lot involved in that "sticking" process that some may take for granted .

Will be tying these elements together: the thoughts, conditioning, perception, emotions, feelings, energy (chakras) etc. so traders have a working knowledge as to what is really happening to them. I want to encourage newer viewers to read from the beginning as many foundational ideas have already been discussed.

Thanks for sharing,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #203
  • Edited 6:00am Feb 16, 2012 5:39am | Edited 6:00am
I don't know. Thinking...


Quoting ha-pattern
farmer -- You work with your hands and can see and walk through what works for acres of cropland.
pilot -- Like an explorer knows, you create redundancies in all of your systems and, while keeping track of them, getting done what you set to do, and, the most important thing, returning home.
I miss getting a handle, a grasp, a hand in what I'm doing:
Confidence is huge to me, not in charts. I can do well, charts are not in problematic trading.
Thus, trading is technical in, for me. Because it must be,seem,feel real.
You're working at a hands-on job -- No thinking, no paperwork or considering beyond what you see right now: Just doing.


I've been an explorer (a very little), which is a task that is at once very real and consistent/systematic, and thus practical, in a random, dangerous environs.
I did so well, saw others do even better, using these principles,
in the highly chaotic/random environs using redundancies, the idea of keeping track, matching environs-specific and system-graded goals, and keeping also an underlying watch on the Important thing in (various risks upon my) life(, from each portion of the overall activity),
stacks what's going on for others to absorb in non-explored-area environs.
The pilot description of mine was instead taken from my own experience. That I'm opposite of it, as implied through my reinterpretation of your words, makes me wary of trading.


So,
Quoting FX4Newbies
Could it be that the qualities you need and have developed to be successful in these other areas are just the opposite for success in trading? That is another reason why trading can be difficult to master.

FX4
: Opposite and chasing all along.

A match would mean I could read randomness to a high degree, because I could feel the gravity of my situation when I don't margin-call for the umpteenth time in my simulations.
entry, TP-SL, watch-divide exit -- These seem enough to proclaim a simple redundancy each step of a trade.

More variables of a chart technical analysis, however, to redundant-icize also:
Each frame is temporary in trading, and different-sized too; as well, it has its own connection from one frame to another. (Yes, trying to get another angle at a, and thus for a better, psych-to-chart-interpretation causality.)



The spirit of being inside a chart, of embracing randomness for its own natural order, is instead what I praise:
A photograph of its sketch, pattern recognition and its projection. The projection, understanding its underlying values, is then from the chart's core.
-- That's what I want from its trading, to trade with it (the chart).

I guess what I'm saying, what with the three highlighted words, is to bring my intuitive side to task for the practical matter of trading for the benefit of what money brings.
  • #204
  • Edited 6:37am Feb 16, 2012 5:59am | Edited 6:37am
Quoting ha-pattern
I don't know. Thinking...



I miss getting a handle, a grasp, a hand in what I'm doing:
Confidence is huge to me, not in charts. I can do well, charts are not in problematic trading.
Thus, trading is technical in, for me. Because it must be,seem,feel real.
You're working at a hands-on job -- No thinking, no paperwork or considering beyond what you see right now: Just doing.


I've been an explorer (a very little), which is a task that is at once very real and consistent/systematic in a random, dangerous environs.
I...
That's what I want from its trading, to trade with it (the chart).

Since you have very good chart reading skills, why not couple that with a very visual trigger, like some MAs. Then when the two are in agreement, trade and let it rip. You can easily use a trendline or MA for exits if you don't want too much else going on.

Once you have a basic but tested approach, then work on you. Take the personality test and the chakra test, see the areas of your temperament that are vulnerable, then strengthen those.

Courage first, then the confidence will come.

...is to bring my intuitive side to task for the practical matter of trading for the benefit of what money brings.

The intuitive side has a place for sure (glad you have it), but I think if you just worked with your chart reading and some basic back-up tools as a system, then worked on you, you should be fine. You don't need to know if you're going to be right before you trade. Just get an edge that works and trade it...when you see it. Maybe you are putting too much on yourself to make this work.

When I took art classes, the instructor asked us to draw the table. I started drawing a table that was in my mind, not the one he put in front of us. I had to train my mind to draw it as it appeared. Alot of letting go of my conscious way of seeing. The lines felt strange as I was drawing, but the end result looked right: left-brain vs. right-brain I guess. Said all that to say, there's just some internal adjustments to make to get it all to work for you...my 2 cents.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #205
  • Edited 7:18am Feb 16, 2012 6:44am | Edited 7:18am
Quoting FX4Newbies
That's what I want from its trading, to trade with it (the chart).

Since you have very good chart reading skills, why not couple that with a very visual trigger, like some MAs. Then when the two are in agreement, trade and let it rip. You can easily use a trendline or MA for exits if you don't want too much else going on.

Once you have a basic but tested approach, then work on you. Take the personality test and the chakra test, see the areas of your temperament...
A reason-and-sense-informed intuition corrects error tolerance, within the in-trade drawdown degree average per trade, of any one trade during the ego / controlling consciousness one brings to / uses in / takes from a trading session.

a longer explanation of this statement:

Unconscious recollection of how intuitive one is vs. how rational one can be when it (seems to) count(s),
is an ego-busting feat:
The benefit of intuition is to know that what one sees in the chart, ABSOLUTELY works 100%. It's just that something one's unconscious mind egotistically ignores, in the chart and related in a perceptual sense to something else in one's life, is apt to be untimed with that 100% and thus lose the trade if attempted.
So timing with the unknown is important. What better way, is to get into the chart after one understands its flow through the portion of it that is 100% understood and other portions that are less-so understood,
and walk through the chart and balance each chart portion's importance and % of being understood enough to be projected from reliably,
enough times to get basic underlying symbols that adapt to and frame all of the chart within a certain in-trade drawdown of understanding for every trade. This is the only way I can do this, for else is uncomfortable to my intuition.

Thus, instead of compromising use of my intution and the experience that goes along with bonding with various sizes (and any time frame) of the chart (of any symbol),
that using a lagging average and other non-real indicators implies,
I arrived at a reasonable balance of symbology to anchor on and framing to relate to.

This is it....


to address your post directly:

By 'ma', you mean something completely outside and neutral of me, and thus nonthreatening whether in individual or, less but plannably so, a multitude of form?
I did break down my longtime-used simple list of geometric forms and their use on the chart,
with its complete randomness of choice and thus invitation to nontrading mores to make such a high-choice and thus uncertain/threatening decision,
to instead use a rule to say where, in cooperation with up-to-par interpretation of the chart, to put one of a simpler, shorter, ordered list of geometric forms.

Only, this was very recently, so I don't know how it'll go over the long term.
It's a practical application of what you were saying in post #160 (including its quote, for contrast), though.

P.S.:
How often "100% CORRECT" stuff that sometimes happens itranslates into a successful trade
is on a level of experienced understanding of the chart that is also under the thumb of what bring in etc. of thinking/action patterns from the rest of life.
It's in a range with muddled, where some of a chart analysis is correct and the rest of it not detailed enough or otherwise somewhat imbalanced of a fact, or completely wrong understanding, where only a cursory attempt is made and the carryover thinking/action types makes trading unconsciously useless.
  • #206
  • Feb 16, 2012 7:27am Feb 16, 2012 7:27am
Quoting ha-pattern
I arrived at a reasonable balance of symbology to anchor on and framing to relate to.

This is it....


to address your post directly:

By 'ma', you mean something completely outside and neutral of me, and thus nonthreatening whether in individual or, less but plannably so, a multitude of form?
I did break down my longtime-used simple list of geometric forms and their use on the chart, with its complete randomness of choice and thus invitation to nontrading mores to make such a high-choice and thus uncertain/threatening decision, to instead use a rule to say where, in cooperation with up-to-par interpretation of the chart, to put one of a simpler, shorter, ordered list of geometric forms.
So,if you were to use your chart analysis, do you have a way to determine its reliability; success rate?

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #207
  • Feb 16, 2012 7:55am Feb 16, 2012 7:55am
Quoting FX4Newbies
So,if you were to use your chart analysis, do you have a way to determine its reliability; success rate?

FX4
Hmmm...

I have uniformly-controlled data,
which is at once a step above, in terms of reliability, and merely different than, in terms of accuracy,
randomly-positioned symbols from a list to anchor on for chart immersion.

It increased by another level the logic of intersymbol movement.
So it brings forth the possibility of such of thing, if I practice this feature of the method enough.

In other words, no for now and a closer-to-yes maybe for the future.

Thanks for asking.


Yeah, it'll/'d be nice to stop depending on the ever-malleable-by-nontrading-happenings intuition for my trades.
  • #208
  • Edited 9:12am Feb 16, 2012 8:47am | Edited 9:12am
Quoting ha-pattern
Hmmm...

I have uniformly-controlled data,
which is at once a step above, in terms of reliability, and merely different than, in terms of accuracy,
randomly-positioned symbols from a list to anchor on for chart immersion.

It increased by another level the logic of intersymbol movement.
So it brings forth the possibility of such of thing, if I practice this feature of the method enough.

In other words, no for now and a closer-to-yes maybe for the future.

Thanks for asking.


Yeah, it'll/'d be nice to stop depending on the ever-malleable-by-nontrading-happenings intuition for my trades.
I have uniformly-controlled data,

Is that data in some sequential pattern that you have catalogued as occurring repeatedly in the chart? Only asked because of your use of the term "uniformly-controlled".


once a step above, in terms of reliability

Above the use of what kinds of trading tools? MAs? Fibs?


randomly-positioned symbols from a list to anchor on for chart immersion.

Is there a systematic, concrete way to randomly-position based on your criteria?


It increased by another level the logic of intersymbol movement.

The idea of intersymbol movement sounds interesting. By the way, what is the "it" you are referring to here?


Yeah, it'll/'d be nice to stop depending on the ever-malleable-by-nontrading-happenings intuition for my trades.

I'd tend to agree. The market is so dynamic as it is. To add an "ever-malleable" approach just makes things too crazy for me. The market provides varying probabilities for trades. Maybe one or two of your intersymbol movements are reliable enough, but that needs to be tested. Add to that the human temperament and development you would like to see. Haven't even thrown in a MM approach. Alot going on there I think.

Maybe you can test your "system" in parts or one or two at a time. If you think there is enough credibility in it, put it to the test.

Only asking these questions here because if your approach is not "signed, sealed and delivered", confidence etc. will not give you the results you may be hoping for.

FX4

P.S. For those who may be curious, I use the Andrews Pitchfork as my trading tool of choice: the "meat" of my analysis.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #209
  • Edited 10:33am Feb 16, 2012 9:51am | Edited 10:33am
I have uniformly-controlled data,

-- Should have said, more-uniform.


once a step above, in terms of reliability

-- No, my own list of shapes. I prefer an omnibus of traditional and created.


randomly-positioned symbols from a list to anchor on for chart immersion.

Is there a systematic, concrete way to randomly-position based on your criteria?

-- Yeah, I just said that:
The method (area-creating rule; ordered list of symbols (which are the same idea as, only may not literally be, drawing devices)) I got.
Anyway, my path, also already noted but to put another way, is to dig deeper into how the logic of my new method works -- into and toward pure candle reading (which I try to avoid, because of itspossible low correctness and infinite interpretation possibilities).


It increased by another level the logic of intersymbol movement.

The idea of intersymbol movement sounds interesting. By the way, what is the "it" you are referring to here?

-- 'It' is the new method.
And no, 'intersymbol movement' is only a junk way to say movement between drawing devices (fib retrace, triangle, etc.) However, I do like it for its distinction from the level below, price action and its type of bars used.

Maybe you can test your "system" in parts or one or two at a time. If you think there is enough credibility in it, put it to the test.

I've already done that.
When I say I want to dig deeper into the logic of the method, I mean that the parts of the method have first already been tested.
The biggest danger now is that digging deeper reveals that multi-interpretation anywhere along the line occurs when the rule fits various pieces of the ordered list onto the chart.


Well, thanks for the help in this step toward trading. I've got a lot of work to do yet.
  • #210
  • Edited 10:49am Feb 16, 2012 10:27am | Edited 10:49am
Quoting ha-pattern
I have uniformly-controlled data,

-- Should have said, more-uniformed.


once a step above, in terms of reliability

-- No, my own list of shapes. I prefer an omnibus of traditional and created.


randomly-positioned symbols from a list to anchor on for chart immersion.

Is there a systematic, concrete way to randomly-position based on your criteria?

-- Yeah, I just said that:
The method (area-creating rule; ordered list of symbols (which are the same idea as,...

Answers in bold.


I have uniformly-controlled data,

-- Should have said, more-uniformed.

Okay.


once a step above, in terms of reliability

-- No, my own list of shapes. I prefer an omnibus of traditional and created.

Okay.


randomly-positioned symbols from a list to anchor on for chart immersion.

Is there a systematic, concrete way to randomly-position based on your criteria?

-- Yeah, I just said that:
The method (area-creating rule; ordered list of symbols (which are the same idea as, only may not literally be, drawing devices)) I got.
Anyway, my path, also already noted but to put another way, is to dig deeper into how the logic of my new method works -- into and toward pure candle reading (which I try to avoid, because of its possible low correctness and infinite interpretation possibilities).

Yes...the logic of how your method works will be key. Candle reading has its merit. Might not be exacting enough for you.


It increased by another level the logic of intersymbol movement.

The idea of intersymbol movement sounds interesting. By the way, what is the "it" you are referring to here?

-- 'It' is the new method.
And no, 'intersymbol movement' is only a junk way to say movement between drawing devices (fib retrace, triangle, etc.) However, I do like it for its distinction from the level below, price action and its type of bars used.


Okay.


Maybe you can test your "system" in parts or one or two at a time. If you think there is enough credibility in it, put it to the test.

I've already done that.
When I say I want to dig deeper into the logic of the method, I mean that the parts of the method have first already been tested.
The biggest danger now is that digging deeper reveals that multi-interpretation anywhere along the line occurs when the rule fits various pieces of the ordered list onto the chart.

That's a big one for sure.


Well, thanks for the help in this step toward trading. I've got a lot of work to do yet.

It's all work. Took me about 1 1/2 to 2 years (several hours a day) to have my methodology down. Now my eyes and mind are being conditioned, and I am seeing more and more of the market behaviour. It is beginning to make trading so much easier.

All the best,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #211
  • Edited 3:59pm Feb 16, 2012 1:35pm | Edited 3:59pm
As we prepare to start the weekend tomorrow, it is my plan to post an introduction for the next phase. I would like to bring together the elements of thought, emotion, Maslow, conditioning, perception, chakras etc., to show how they can all impact the trader. After a few blown accounts and a profitable system, a trader might begin to say to themselves, "Hey, it ain't the system I'm using, it's me 'cause I keep making the same mistakes over and over and over...and I know that I know better." Let's see how trader-friendly the next phase would be .

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #212
  • Feb 16, 2012 5:38pm Feb 16, 2012 5:38pm
Confidence in one’s trading ability when based upon method is an illusion and self deception.

“Go Rin No Sho”, or the “ Book of Five Rings written by Miyamoto Musashi in the mid 1650’s…….. was a self study and biography of probably the greatest swordsman ever. In his later years, he had given up on using actual swords in combat (wasn’t enough challenge or learning experience), instead using sticks and once using a boat oar to defeat his enemies. He was never defeated.


Throughout his book he uncomplicates what he refers to as strategy, traditional techniques, attacks and such, they were boiled down to simple explanations on their use and how to defeat them, then Musashi takes the reader/pupil into another realm entirely…… “The Void”


In the Void, the warrior is able to ascertain the opponent’s movements and intentions, but to enter the Void, one must put away all preconceived ideas and notions of their opponent, so feints, and ulterior motives are seen for what they actually are.


The best example of this is seen in the movie, “The Last Samauri” with Tom Curise. As his character, Algren, is being trained by Ujio their best swordsman, they are dueling and Cruise’s character is losing badly, Katsumoto’s son, Nobutada tries to help him with the following advice…. Too many Minds…


Mind the sword, mind the opponent, mind the people watching…. No Mind!


As trader’s we are similar. We train ourselves in various methods to, what we believe is a method or setup that identifies the markets intentions, indicators, patterns etc….. and just like in Musashi’s book all these can be boiled down to simple market dynamics….. the market moves between balance points of supply and demand…. Our setup or method, indicator has absolutely no influence on future price, I can assure you the market does not check my screen to see where my lines are.


For us to actually be able to see what’s happening we need the ability to see total market depth, all existing orders and positions, their volume and all incoming orders……. Then it’s easy to see which way the markets headed and when levels will spillover….. good luck, that info’s a closely guarded secret, unless your trading for the firm. Instead all we can see is the footprints.


As a trader progresses they need not rely on any method, setup, indicator or whatever to succeed. Instead they must learn to read the market from the “Void”. No preconceived ideas. Once we set our bias, then all future reference is from that mindset as long as it’s held regardless if it’s right or wrong, truth or feint.



Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #213
  • Edited Feb 17, 2012 2:19pm Feb 16, 2012 6:34pm | Edited Feb 17, 2012 2:19pm
Quoting auxesis

Confidence in one’s trading ability when based upon method is an illusion and self deception.

“Go Rin No Sho”, or the “ Book of Five Rings written by Miyamoto Musashi in the mid 1650’s…….. was a self study and biography of probably the greatest swordsman ever. In his later years, he had given up on using actual swords in combat (wasn’t enough challenge or learning experience), instead using sticks and once using a boat oar to defeat his enemies. He was never defeated.


Throughout his book he uncomplicates what he refers to as strategy,...
Thanks Auxesis for sharing.

Confidence in one’s trading ability when based upon method is an illusion and self deception.

So, if confidence when based on a method is an illusion and self-deception, then what "strength" is the warrior drawing from when within "The Void"? Is he/she just looking for weakness in the opponent to exploit? If so, what does the warrior need to have to exploit the weakness effectively? I think a certain degree of confidence and ability is required, but to be victorious over the opponent, it takes something more.


In the Void, the warrior is able to ascertain the opponent’s movements and intentions, but to enter the Void, one must put away all preconceived ideas and notions of their opponent

Staying objective as a trader is a must. Yes and yes. In battle, the focus must be on the opponent, not on the method. Makes sense.


Too many Minds…this speaks volumes to me. I can see how this can definitely come into the picture if someone is trading for others. One of the reasons why some traders would never trade for anyone else: too many minds to please. Some have actually considered quitting because of it.


Instead all we can see is the footprints. Yes, the market usually will play its hand or show its footprint...if we wait long enough for it to show. Should a trader's method/tools then, be used to expose/highlight the bias in the market; where the weakness is in the market?

So, I presume there must be a method that is used, because Algren did learn how to fight, but, his mind was in The Void when actually in the battle so he could win. If Musashi was undefeated without a sword, then his real weapon was his mind. Have to throw in the young Hebrew warrior David, who defeated a well-armed giant with a sling-shot, a smooth stone and the giant's sword. (Been pondering that battle for some days now). Even had a video clip on hold.

Thanks for the videos.

No mind...Will ponder some more

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #214
  • Edited 8:35pm Feb 16, 2012 8:20pm | Edited 8:35pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Thanks Auxesis for sharing.

Confidence in one’s trading ability when based upon method is an illusion and self deception.

So, if confidence when based on a method is an illusion and self-deception, then what "strength" is the warrior drawing from when within "The Void"? Is he/she just looking for weakness in the opponent to exploit? If so, what does the warrior need to have to exploit the weakness effectively? I think a certain degree of confidence and ability is required, but to be victorious over the opponent,...
Confidence itself is an illusion……..there's only resolve. Understand you cannot beat the market. Let go all preconceived ideas you have about the market, what it takes to profit, what you should and shouldn’t do………. In reality there’s you and the market as it exists right now. You can’t control or know how far or where it will go.

There’s no system, no method, no indicator that can tell you what the market will do, as they do not have the necessary information to determine that.

All you know is what your opponent, the market, is doing right now….. which is simply one of three things…. long, short or consolidation.

Trade it as it exists now, from "only" the most advantageous places that limit your risk, which in essence is all that you can control.

You will find that there are times the market will not allow you to trade in those parameters, attacking the opponent on his grounds on his terms is dangerous........ understand the intentions behind the feint.... which can only happen when you approach from a neutral mindset.

regards,
  • #215
  • Feb 17, 2012 1:00am Feb 17, 2012 1:00am
Quoting auxesis
Confidence itself is an illusion……..there's only resolve. Understand you cannot beat the market. Let go all preconceived ideas you have about the market, what it takes to profit, what you should and shouldn’t do………. In reality there’s you and the market as it exists right now. You can’t control or know how far or where it will go.

There’s no system, no method, no indicator that can tell you what the market will do, as they do not have the necessary information to determine that.

All you know is what your opponent, the market, is doing right...
1. Confidence isn't an illusion. It should be an expectation of a certain outcome based on either - or both - experience and reasoning.

2. To say that nothing can tell you what the market will do and proceed to say that one should trade from advantageous places is a contradiction - that is, unless you are using the word 'will' in the sense of a movement being certain. Regardless, the root of a decision to trade is one's expectation that a certain thing will happen: neither you or anyone else can escape this. We are always trading more than the present - bar arbitrage: we are making a prediction for the future.

You'll only serve to confuse other posters by making these comments

Edit: I've just now read your earlier posts in this thread. You can't be serious in recommending "trading without ideas".
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #216
  • Edited 4:39am Feb 17, 2012 3:57am | Edited 4:39am
Quoting auxesis
Confidence itself is an illusion……..there's only resolve. Understand you cannot beat the market. Let go all preconceived ideas you have about the market, what it takes to profit, what you should and shouldn’t do………. In reality there’s you and the market as it exists right now. You can’t control or know how far or where it will go.

There’s no system, no method, no indicator that can tell you what the market will do, as they do not have the necessary information to determine that.

All you know is what your opponent, the market, is doing...
Confidence itself is an illusion……..there's only resolve.

By resolve I think you mean willpower, maybe even daring, but not this definition: To make a firm decision about..., as this is challenging in the markets .

Here's a little write up about an illusion (for the benefit here of newer readers):

Each sensory receptor detects its own special form of energy and transmits a signal to the brain. The reception of the signal in the brain represents sensation. How the brain interprets these signals and makes them meaningful is called perception. Most of the time the interpretation of the received energy is consistent with it. Sometimes, however, our interpretation is incorrect. These misinterpretations are called illusions. When we witness an illusion, we perceive something that does not correspond to what is actually out there—what exists in the real world. Illusions fool us. They convince us of things that are not true. Dictionary definitions of illusion usually state that an illusion is a sensory perception that causes a false or distorted impression, or a misrepresentation of a "real" sensory stimulus.

A Google search about "confidence" brought this up:

 

  1. The feeling or belief that one can rely on someone or something; firm trust: "we had every confidence in the staff".
  2. The state of feeling certain about the truth of something.

Based on these definitions, I would not say that confidence is an illusion. It may be misguided and will be shaken if a trader is being misled or set-up by the market, and doesn't see it. That's why "The Void" is important and trading only "in the now" is critical for survival. A feeling of certainty is just that, a feeling, an actual emotional "sensation" of what the trader is experiencing.


There’s no system, no method, no indicator that can tell you what the market will do, as they do not have the necessary information to determine that.

Agreed as there are no guarantees. Trading methods and indicators etc. can help a trader determine a probable bias in one direction over another, but even that can be changed in the now without warning; which does happen, though not so often or frequently, that no traders will profit except the one changing the market.

However, if a trader is able to trade in "the now" and manages risk well, they don't need all these systems. It can be done, but it is not that easy for most traders to start there..mho. Because the markets provide opportunities to profit with varying probabilities, it is up to the trader to find the best ones by whatever means they can, and then manage the trade and themselves well.


You will find that there are times the market will not allow you to trade in those parameters, attacking the opponent on his grounds on his terms is dangerous........ understand the intentions behind the feint....

Absolutely!!!! Like the shark and surfer image posted some pages back. That image has been downloaded so many times...I think traders can identify very well. A trader needs to be very discerning and nimble, because the market will present the very set-up a trader is looking for to go long, and then turn it into a sell with the very same candle that "confirmed" the long.

My 2 1/2 cents .

FX4

Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #217
  • Feb 17, 2012 4:02am Feb 17, 2012 4:02am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
1. Confidence isn't an illusion. It should be an expectation of a certain outcome based on either - or both - experience and reasoning.
To say if the market does "A" and "B", then I can expect it to go to "C" a certain percentage of the time. Isn't confidence it's gambling, playing the odds.


Quoting Leonlorenzo
Edit: I've just now read your earlier posts in this thread. You can't be serious in recommending "trading without ideas".
I'm not asking you to revert, step backwards, forgoing your ideas..... I'm asking you to step forward and understand what those ideas actually are.

regards,
  • #218
  • Edited 12:33pm Feb 17, 2012 4:29am | Edited 12:33pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
1. Confidence isn't an illusion. It should be an expectation of a certain outcome based on either - or both - experience and reasoning.

2. To say that nothing can tell you what the market will do and proceed to say that one should trade from advantageous places is a contradiction - that is, unless you are using the word 'will' in the sense of a movement being certain. Regardless, the root of a decision to trade is one's expectation that a certain thing will happen: neither you or anyone else can escape this. We are always trading more...
Confidence isn't an illusion. It should be an expectation of a certain outcome based on either - or both - experience and reasoning.

In my reply to Auxesis, I addressed the idea about confidence being an illusion.

A Google search for "expectation" brought this up:

 

  1. A strong belief that something will happen or be the case in the future.
  2. A belief that someone will or should achieve something.

..."should" indicates obligation or duty...in this context, that the market has a responsibility to the trader to perform "as expected". Even for good or "correct" analysis, the market owes us nothing.

...the root of a decision to trade is one's expectation that a certain thing will happen...

Danger zone here! Having a feeling of certainty is okay, because that feeling is based on what is being shown (or being seen) at that moment, and can be changed fairly easily if one is open to the current information. But an expectation is another thing, because it makes a trader think that they will receive the object of that strong belief. And, because they are thinking that way, the corresponding action will follow and other emotions like hope will kick in, which would serve to ground them even more in that strong belief. Should their expectation fail, not receiving the outcome of that strong belief, creates pain which, when it becomes too great for their sense of self-preservation, will force them to change, hence the bleeding losses in trading. Making a decision to trade that is rooted in expectation can be too costly for traders...mho.

A strong belief is not a feeling. Confidence is a feeling and can have an element of "believing" in it, but expectation is at another level. Belief involves acceptance which changes the whole picture. Will be getting into these subtleties next week...planning a little intro maybe later today or on the weekend in preparation for next week's discussion.

Just going with the flow for now...

Thanks for the post.

FX4

Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #219
  • Edited 10:13am Feb 17, 2012 5:51am | Edited 10:13am
A friend who was in the military told me once that the most effective "weapon" in warfare is rumour and propaganda. In the movie Swordfish, John Travolta called it misdirection. An ambush is an effective strategy: a surprise attack by people lying in wait in a concealed position. The goal of course is to catch the opponent off-guard.

As traders we need to be prepared to deal with both of these. Why? Because they affect the mind and ultimately our decisions and actions: and they will come our way for sure. Trading from the place of "The Void" is probably the safest place to be positioned in relation to price action, as it affords us the greatest degree of flexibility and objectivity as to what is really happening at any given moment. Trading decisions are made in the "now" moment.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #220
  • Feb 17, 2012 7:41am Feb 17, 2012 7:41am
I really enjoy reading threads like this, It gives me inspiration to keep on going.
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