I have no business license as asset manager
Martingale, Anti-martingale, and Compounding 40 replies
Martingale, Reverse Martingale, Modified Martingale, Maths 1 reply
How to change this Martingale to Reverse Martingale ? 3 replies
Martingale vs. Non Martingale (Simplified RoR vs Profit) 1 reply
Does this simple system by Richard Donchian really work? 134 replies
Dislikedguys we are far away from the thread question...
- original martingale is not useable and not working in forex
- modified martingale is useable and workingIgnored
DislikedMaybe we need to define the question a bit more. If by "Does the martingale system really work?" we mean : does it provide a means to scale positions to recover previous losses in the short term then it clearly does work in this manner. However, I think the question is does the martingale system alone provide a basis for a positive expectation strategy? In this regards I think the maths clearly shows that it does not and to claim otherwise is akin to claiming that someone has discovered perpetual motion, i.e. very unlikely given the weight of...Ignored
DislikedDepends if you trade a open or closed modified martingale system
Open:
- all (martingale) orders still open - needs higher account balance (no sl, maybe tp)
Close:
- each order will close with stoploss and the next order is opend with doubled lot size - needs less account balance (fixed sl and tpIgnored
DislikedWhat exactly depends, whether martingale alone can make positive expectation or whether in the example it can?
I don't see any obvious significant difference to the final outcome whether it is closed or open as described.Ignored
Dislikednot really,
if you use a trailing stop, it operates on a single order different as on bulk of orders! also if you use a breakeven routine
yes maybe the outcome is equal, with fixed tp (no trail), but not the float/drawdown, because open martingale orders have a higher float in sumIgnored
DislikedAgain, which bit not really, the question over positive expectation or the open / close difference?
Have read the answer several times and still not sure what a "float in sum" is.Ignored
DislikedHi ixbone
I am a bit confused as to whether you are
a) keeping all martingale orders open and then hedging the lot as you outlined in post #46.
b) closing the losing martingale order before opening the next as outlined in post #63
I am curious as I believe it is possible to have a working martingale approach with the right controls in place.
I have written my own ea to try and replicate your success but I want to be sure I have the correct method.
I appreciate the initial entry is a big part of not getting caught on the wrong side of...Ignored
DislikedYou need an edge to trade forex, pure and simple. And no amount of tinkering with money management strategies is going to provide that edge.Ignored
DislikedAgro states the absolute truth, folks. It's fairly easy to prove mathematically. I've posted different XLSs before, that calculate expectancy for every possible combination of wins and losses over X trades, using various MM systems: martingale, anti-martingale, d'Alembert, Labouchere, Guetting, Oscar's Grind, Fibonacci, flat betting. Assuming a random distribution of wins and losses, it doesn't matter which of these MMs you use: each one redistributes win and loss sizes differently, but overall delivers an expectancy of exactly zero.
Martingale...Ignored
Dislikedcorrect! but if your initial entry order goes wrong, a MM system (martingale, d'lambert,..) combined with functions described in my previous post #70 can help to recover and survive large drawdowns = trading a standard MM system is hazardous, if combined with serveral functions, the MM is now in controlIgnored
DislikedSome things for you to ponder:
1. The outcome of your next trade (win/loss) is determined by the market, not your recent performance. If you increase your position size, but have no better than a 50/50 probability of winning the next trade, then you're increasing both the probability/speed of recovery and suffering the risk of deeper drawdown in exactly like proportion. Without an edge from knowledgeable analysis, you are not trading; you are gambling.
2. Martingale variants fous on recovering recent losses. Yet these losses are no more or less...Ignored
Dislikedyes to trade forex, the knowledge of price, market and so on is a must have - the base of successful forex trading
i do not more experiment with MM, i trade it live...after 3.5 years developmentIgnored
Dislikedhello guys , i just want to know is that martingale works?
is that system could be use for long time?
-could anyone who already use this system give comment?
-which pair is the best for trading this system?
thanks for your attention.Ignored
Dislikedif the big boys use martingale, they mostly use a open version of martingale:
- needs very large account (depends how many pairs you trade)
- have high float (drawdown/drawup)
- interests are less important
- medium/long term
closed version:
- if the next martin order is opend the previous order is closed with sl
- needs less money
- less float (drawdown)
- negativ interests important
- intradayIgnored
DislikedALL commercial/institutional traders will at some point use a form of martingale system. Usually, with permission upto 4 levels. But this is not automated by default, its upto them if they wish to take the risk. Most times they get away with it but every now and then............
ScoobsIgnored
DislikedWhat?
We get slapped hard if we are averaging in a la martingale at my work.
There are some cases where doubling up is allowed but only on a specific style of equity trading and not anything like martingale. (Cash buyout announcements causing credit trading opportunities since we know the cash buyout amount and thus averaging in by offering liquidity for credits isn't nearly as risky.)
Who in the heck did you hear uses martingale on the institutional side? Seriously, which firm?Ignored