Yet another trading journal

if it doesn't find support then what? if you don't use a SL when do you really worry? when it break the next previous dip area at .29300 or .28800?

tunera why did you open multiple entries in a small area instead of one large lot in one area?

It may looks a little bit funny but as per my analysis/method the next technical support is at 1.2630 area, while the next resistances are at 1.32 area (the "medium one") and at 1.31 area (the minor one). The big one is at 1.332 area.

Why i open multiple entries instead of one large lot, well actually the first trade was a large one (10x the account balance), then as price go down and the setup/situation still looks valid, i just buy more.
At the moment however i don't plan to buy anymore in this area, the exposure is starting to become important (30x now), better relax a little bit...
Update: 35x now


An image below, hope it make sense

What do you mean by "30x account balance" ? do you mean that for example with account of $10.000 you have purchase 3 lots?

exactly

Ok, NY opened right now, during the whole london session not a rally not a nothing, we just see price making new lows.. Interesting, the situation is particular.
More to comes

Ok, we've closed our trades, at the average price of 1.3059.
A premature exit, different as our original trading plan, however..
as we noticed, the market activity of today didn't performed as expected, our original plan was expecting an upmove to 1.31 during the asian-london session activity.
Instead, market just remained in a oversold and down-trending condition, very unusual and somehow probably dangerous, the setup is still technically valid, but the market action of today just let me think that is better to take the profits as opportunity has arised, and well tomorrow is another day!

Some thoughts about today trading:
Well from a discipline/safety point of view, i would say today it was not soo good and not soo bad, at one point our total exposure was of 38x the account balance, with a maximum floating DD of 15% reached.
On the other side, a selloff/dangerous-downmove was technically a very low probability scenario, the worst downmove we can had, we actually had, with price going down of 100pips (more than 200 from yesterday high) without any decent retracement or bull sign, so.. not exactly an easy day for buyers.

However, +8.5% for the day.

Hi,
After talking to you this morning , I have entered with buy at 1.3016 and exited the market at the round number of 1.3100. About 27% of my account! I am not sure that this can be repeated...

That's fantastic, i just see i closed prematurely, the 1.31 was a good point, only what i don't like soo much is that the big guys released the big news just when trading day was almost finished, oh well...
It's just the beginning!

that's a lot of exposure to your accounts guys.....Arbinka, +84pips and your 27%up on your account.

tunera by your chart you had around 22 entries, do you enter every XX number of pips or something else?

Mostly i used to enter a new trade everytime price make new low, but yeah i agree big exposure especially for the first trading day (considering that i'm doing this journal stuff exactly to keep my exposure low, the purpose is just to inhibit my trading aggressiveness).
But ok the situation was technically correct so buy here buy there the exposure growth without even realizing it.
Have a good evening/night!

if the candle is falling surely every pip is a new low. don't want to try and change your trading style but would it not be better entering again every 20pips???

"a selloff/dangerous-downmove was technically a very low probability scenario, the worst downmove we can had, we actually had, with price going down of 100pips (more than 200 from yesterday high) without any decent retracement or bull sign, so.. not exactly an easy day for buyers."

So the market drops 100pips to your entry zone, you enter, then again every 20pips (25 or something else set?)...if it slides further like early today/late yesterday you have 5 exposures more spread out.(just a thought)

Yes I see, that's a good advice.
However, in the days like today, market was basically accumulating buy orders (this is just a my theory, but i know is impossible to prove), so the market was accumulating with a little volatility, it was ideal to enter on each new low, of course the 100pips total move was a surprise for me too, i was expecting something like 20-30pips max, but then there was the last weeks support that comed in play, and maybe this have given a little more space to the accumulation, usually i don't open soo many trades in a little time/range span.
We just have to adapt to what market is doing, i've tried thousand of strategies in the years but at the end i just feel more confortable by not use anything fixed, and of course my trading is soo far from perfect, you will see with time that most of my trades are just weird, i have a good understanding of the market structure, but how i decide to act (trade) is somehow compulsive and far from perfect! (working on it right "now")

This how my trend lines looks like when I have entered the trades this morning. I wonder if PA will stay in this channel...

Just talking with another trader (not from forexfactory) about the risk and reward thing.
Interesting thoughts comes to my mind, basically we have two different kind of traders that appear in the field:

- The trader who have stricht rules, MM rules, this include the correct exposure, the stoploss/loosing exist strategy, and anything related to a "correct" way of trading.

- The trader who really don't pay too much attention to the risk-field, but mostly concentrate on the profit one.

Now, in the long run, chances are that both of them are ending with a failure, in one hand we have the first trader, that one day make a profit, the day after loose it, the day after make another profit, the day after loose it again... overall the account balance is in slightly downtrend, untill it end.
On the other hand, we have the "crazy" trader, who make a huge amount of profit in a short-medium time, but in the long run he loose everything with just one or a few epic failing trades.

There are exceptions of course, where we can find a trader who win one day and lose the other day, but the overall balance trend is UP.
And we can find a trader who win big and just don't fail even in the long run.
Useless to say that i've known many traders during the years, really many traders, forex, stock, futures traders, but hardly i've meet one that is in the game from long time and havn't failed. Of course some may have 1 month, 6 months, 1 year or more years of profitable trading, but no matter how much, in the long run nobody "survive".
This is what can be explained as a Efficent Market Hypotesis, that basically say that the remuneration/profit is shared among traders but the fact that a market is efficent let it impossible to profit from it for a constant basis.
I don't know if this is the case or not, personally i just think this is the case, but i'm not sure about it of course, anything is possible.

But if this is true (it's possible!), so we have just to face the fact that nothing last forever (success in trading for example), and the best thing to do is just focus on this moment, this particular trade or this particular trading day, and don't think too much about the long-run.
This is my trading philosophy, this is how actually i see trading, let's take the profit we can take today, and from time to time (i used to do it every few days or every few weeks, depeding on many factors) withdraw the profits and enjoy life, a great amount of profits can be made from markets and my philosophy is that it should be enjoyed, of course we keep a part of it in the trading account, so it can grow over the time, but always keeping in mind that in the long run in some point in the future the market may eventually take it back, so..

P.s.
Great chart Arbinka!

Hello, today we're giving a look to AudUsd, it's price action bringed me to automatically buy without think too much about it.

Here we are, the major trend is up currently in retrace mode, and here we have an impulse move yesterday (an impulse that look to build a bigger move in the future, with the purpose of resume the major uptrend), so.. market is currently in retrace mode after the impulse of yesterday, but an image worth 1000 words.

(image below)

So, the technical entry point was on the down yellow box, but we've just missed that one, however... we've entered in the market at 1.0765 with an exposure of 20x our balance, and we look for price to reach 1.77785 (the first yellow resistance) soon, at that point our stoploss will be put on 1.0766.
Targets:
First target at 1.0800
Second target at 1.0845

However, the chances to be stopped out are high, so let's see we may take our profits also in the 1.7780 area, it all depend on how price will move once there.


Update:
We've also bought GbpUsd, situation is similar on audusd, however on gbpusd the first target is already reached, this lower down a little the sense of the trade, but a good news is just coming in few minutes (gbp retail sales m/m), this can be a good thing to power-up the market, otherwise we'll get out from such position soon.

A fast trading today, just taken the profits 2 minutes after the news released, exit very prematurely but today we was mostly looking for a 1.5% profit, actually 2% was achieved. Enough.

Have a nice weekend!

Looks like the trading day isn't finished yet, we've entered on gbp-usd with 30x, more to come..

Update: Stop will be put on 1.5840 when price reach 1.5850, the target is 1.5885

Update:

Stoploss put on b/e, let's see if this trade will bring profit or not, in any case is the last trade of the week (Update: it is not).

Update:
Exited with a few pips, +0.6% on this failed trade, maybe will enter again soon

Try again, same structure of previous trades, 30x exposition

- 35x.

Out again, no way even if a setup is valid, it's friday and friday action is usually "take and run", as i would never like to have trades opened during weekend, so.. no patience today, however the setup is technically good.
Really the end of trading for the week, +6.7% today.