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  • #1,361
  • Feb 14, 2012 3:01pm Feb 14, 2012 3:01pm
Quoting @mel
...When we have a higher TF supply/demand, price usually re-test the level on a lower TF before moving powerfully away...At least this is what I have observed.

@mel
Great post and excellent observation. The number of times price comes in for a re-test is uncanny
  • #1,362
  • Feb 14, 2012 3:29pm Feb 14, 2012 3:29pm
Quoting asos101
thanks a lot, and please dont stop posting (just take it easy), i learn a lot from you and the other pioneers of SD here.
1. I can only assume the trigger for him was the supply zone spotted as eye candy to him as he stated "more willing supply than demand" or what Red might say is where the institutionals have the orders . For me it would be reaction to the zone I think as I've never watched it's behavior. It's difficult to see the time at the bottom of chart but it appears the session/news interrupted filling the gap to complete the flag, the news whipsawed back to the orders as a trap?

2. It seems SS maintains a cool perspective on who he believes is doing the buying and the selling(strong vs weak) and maintains this awareness which is what I believe is his greatest understanding of supply/demand. So he took the short because that zone was screaming this is where the strong hands started to pile on. The weak hands took the bait and brought it back to where more orders were waiting to be filled.

3. tp1 confirms short, tp 2 re-establishes the flag to fill the gap, tp 3 back demand to fill gap?
Charts are limited in nature. What is the relative location?
  • #1,363
  • Feb 14, 2012 4:18pm Feb 14, 2012 4:18pm
[quote=bbakker;5383411]Please see the QQQ chart in the following SS article -

http://www.tradingacademy.com/lessons/20120214/featured_article.htm

Here are some questions I want answered which will hopefully cement your knowledge in S&D trading -

1. What was the trigger for taking the short?
2. Why did he take the short from this particular supply zone?
3. Why did he choose the 3 TP targets?


Hi BBaker,

This is my take...

1+2) This level was previously a supply level that turned demand and turned supply again (this was now a fresh supply level). The yellow highlighted supply area did not contained a lot of candles and price did not spend much time there, therefore price was imbalanced, price then dropped hardly with big red candles. So based on this info, we can "expect" to see lots of orders there, waiting to be filled when price comes to test the level again. The supply is also between 55,90 and 56,10 so 56 is a big round number also...

3) 1st TP, because this level was previous demand that turned supply and that turned demand again= Strong area.
2nd TP is simply the next demand level and also a strong level because the gap has not been 'fully' filled yet...
3rd TP is simply the next demand level.

I can not look at a higher tf to see if there is anything else because I don't have this stock on my MT4

Regards,
@mel
  • #1,364
  • Feb 14, 2012 4:22pm Feb 14, 2012 4:22pm
Quoting bbakker
Great post and excellent observation. The number of times price comes in for a re-test is uncanny
Hi Bbakker,

I just saw that you gave me my first voucher! :-) Thank you very much sir, that means a lot!
Thank you!
@mel
  • #1,365
  • Feb 14, 2012 5:58pm Feb 14, 2012 5:58pm
Great responses to my questions, but I am still missing one piece of the puzzle, a simple one, that would be part of the answer for the first question and also keeps you on the right side of the market. I will let a few more people have a stab at answering the questions. The questions are there to make people think on how the markets operate and how price is cyclical, especially in Forex, which will hopefully give you a better understanding.

@bmac
I like the order flow approach to your answer. SS modus operandi is that he is a day trader and not much of a swing trader. He worked for an institution and his job was basically sorting out the orders, so he had first perspective of order flow. He then translated this to the charts and knows where orders would be placed through his own experience. There are many supply and demand zones on a chart, so how does he know which are the right ones? Well... he does get them wrong too sometimes and he has showed a couple of losing trades to the graduates (in monetary terms rather than chart terms!)

@@mel
Indeed supply turned into demand turned into supply. You could almost draw a resistance/support line in there too.

Yes ideally we would also have a higher timeframe to see where we are in relation to the m5 chart, but for this SS trade, it wasn't necessary, as the market had already showed its hand and his final TP was at the first demand level before the gap that was made caused by the positive news (12:30 GMT) that came out prior to NY market open.
  • #1,366
  • Feb 14, 2012 6:05pm Feb 14, 2012 6:05pm
@asos

I see you're from Greece and seeing the recent news again it can't be easy for you out there. The country is basically stuck between a rock and a hard place. You're damned if you do and damned if you don't and it will be years, maybe even decades before your country is even back to anything like normal again.

What is your personal view on this whole situation and do you see any solutions to the problems your country is facing? It would be nice to get the view of someone who actually lives there and how you see this unfolding.

Thanks,
Brian
  • #1,367
  • Feb 14, 2012 6:18pm Feb 14, 2012 6:18pm
Quoting bbakker
Great responses to my questions, but I am still missing one piece of the puzzle, a simple one, that would be part of the answer for the first question and also keeps you on the right side of the market. I will let a few more people have a stab at answering the questions. The questions are there to make people think on how the markets operate and how price is cyclical, especially in Forex, which will hopefully give you a better understanding.
Hey there all,
My guess that the last piece of the puzzle is that by taking a short at this supply zone we are now in line with a new trend. Price made a big run down stopping at this supply zone then dropping some more and now we are fortunate enough to be able to get back in on a retrace of the now downtrend just at a very likely point at which price will continue back down. We can see price broke the two previous major swings low (black lines) and made a lower low swing and now when turning at the supply zone we are making a lower high swing. This would signify that the trend is switching and adding to the probability that our short from this supply will work out.. Thats what im seeing at least
Josh
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nollej is power..
  • #1,368
  • Feb 14, 2012 6:25pm Feb 14, 2012 6:25pm
The trend is down!
  • #1,369
  • Feb 14, 2012 6:28pm Feb 14, 2012 6:28pm
Quoting bbakker
Great responses to my questions, but I am still missing one piece of the puzzle, a simple one, that would be part of the answer for the first question and also keeps you on the right side of the market.

I'll take a stab at it.....but SS already spoke about it.....i.e. "who is on the other side of the trade"----retail buying uptrend on the news.
  • #1,370
  • Feb 14, 2012 6:29pm Feb 14, 2012 6:29pm
Quoting bbakker
Please see the QQQ chart in the following SS article -

http://www.tradingacademy.com/lessons/20120214/featured_article.htm

Here are some questions I want answered which will hopefully cement your knowledge in S&D trading -

1. What was the trigger for taking the short?
2. Why did he take the short from this particular supply zone?
3. Why did he choose the 3 TP targets?

I know it is easier with price history and showing the successful trade, but imagine holding a piece of paper and pretend it is the hard right-edge as you slowly...
Hi Brian,
I will try as well.I agree with posts guys who answered before me.So only add some my thoughts:
1-2Classic Red pole was south, and for me tigger was another classic QM pattern: H+L+HH+LL+LH=my supply zone,R/S level,feeling up hiden gap.All spikes in flag was clearing way for us move south.So we shorting flag in pole and momentum way which was south that time.
3.I agree with 1 and 2 tp my 3 tp will be on closing gap so little bit higher.

Hope you will see us time to time with your tasks and thoughts.
All the best.
  • #1,371
  • Feb 14, 2012 6:39pm Feb 14, 2012 6:39pm
Quoting nollej
Hey there all,
My guess that the last piece of the puzzle is that by taking a short at this supply zone we are now in line with a new trend. Price made a big run down stopping at this supply zone then dropping some more and now we are fortunate enough to be able to get back in on a retrace of the now downtrend just at a very likely point at which price will continue back down. We can see price broke the two previous major swings low (black lines) and made a lower low swing and now when turning at the supply zone we are making a lower high swing....
Bingo!

I will do a full write up of my thoughts on it soon.
  • #1,372
  • Feb 14, 2012 6:41pm Feb 14, 2012 6:41pm
Quoting Atc
I'll take a stab at it.....but SS already spoke about it.....i.e. "who is on the other side of the trade"----retail buying uptrend on the news.
That too! Funny how many times price goes in the opposite direction of what is expected once the news is released. It is not always the case, but more often than not.
  • #1,373
  • Feb 15, 2012 4:13am Feb 15, 2012 4:13am
Quoting bbakker
@asos

I see you're from Greece and seeing the recent news again it can't be easy for you out there. The country is basically stuck between a rock and a hard place. You're damned if you do and damned if you don't and it will be years, maybe even decades before your country is even back to anything like normal again.

What is your personal view on this whole situation and do you see any solutions to the problems your country is facing? It would be nice to get the view of someone who actually lives there and how you see this unfolding.

Thanks,
Brian...
Thank you for the vouch, I hope the future shows that I deserve. And thank you for making me go through the process of thinking where I stand in the whole situation, though I am not sure I can do it in a few lines I will try.

.... below is only the last paragraphs of my reply, i dont want to derail the thread about another useless discussion about Greece, i have PM'd you the full story so dont bother reading below ....

...
But how we came to suddenly owe over 400bil is a really weird story. 4 years ago the debt was a bit over 100bil, then when this world economic crisis started our banks that supposedly had no problems (as we were told) lend another 100bil for their bailout, money that they never circulated in the market so the small businesses started suffocating. As people started slowly losing their jobs, the agreement between the Greek state and the Troika for cuts and then further cuts and then some more and more taxes led to the closing of many small businesses and more people being jobless, mainly in the private sector. With people jobless and more cuts and taxes the money circulating in the market become less and less with the state having less income of course and the spiral goes on and on.

To cut a long story short, since we didn’t default now we have to move forward and try not to repeat the mistakes of the past. Of course its not going to be easy for many years to come but I hope this hardship will serve as a reminder of how and why we got in this bad situation in the first place. Because if someone was to wave a magic wand and make our problems disappear overnight I am sure we would go back in our old “roman orgy” as if nothing had happened. The bad thing also is that the world media have a scapegoat to blame the crisis on now. Almighty Greece is responsible for causing this havoc? Really?

We certainly have the resources to do it, now it remains to be seen if we have the willpower too. Greece is a beautiful place, unique in its nature with a wealth of history to inspire and drive us in the future as it did in the past now only for us but for many European countries as well. If we stop putting obstacles on ourselves we should do fine.

As for me, since I was a kid I could see things didn’t quite go as they were supposed to. But I have this ability to see a few steps ahead each time so when things started deteriorating 2 years back I started looking on how I could be truly independent. That’s how my f0rex journey begun, in it for a year and a half now. Maybe I started a bit late as this shitstorm caught me and I am jobless since September. On the other hand maybe the timing was good as I came along all these SD and PA threads here on FF and all the amazing people that share their rock solid knowledge with us noobs.

I have pm’d you the long version of the story but I don’t post it here out of respect for this great thread. In no way I want it to be derailed, so please anyone who read the above please don’t reply here.
  • #1,374
  • Feb 15, 2012 8:55am Feb 15, 2012 8:55am
Quoting bbakker
That too! Funny how many times price goes in the opposite direction of what is expected once the news is released. It is not always the case, but more often than not.
Hi BB. The other interesting thing (I think we spoke about this the other week....) is when news jumps out just as price enters around SD zones. I haven't paid any attention to news in ages yet I still see pa working it's usual structure over and over again (with a few exceptions).

The stock exchange is 'regulated' and yet they have a lot of manipulation. The FX market is not regulated at all. What does that say about a lot of the fx news that is released to retailers?

Some may call this conspiracy BS but....

..
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  • #1,375
  • Feb 15, 2012 10:20am Feb 15, 2012 10:20am
Quoting Tyoon
Hi BB. The other interesting thing (I think we spoke about this the other week....) is when news jumps out just as price enters around SD zones. I haven't paid any attention to news in ages yet I still see pa working it's usual structure over and over again (with a few exceptions).

The stock exchange is 'regulated' and yet they have a lot of manipulation. The FX market is not regulated at all. What does that say about a lot of the fx news that is released to retailers?

Some may call this conspiracy BS but....

..
its a conspiracy, sheep cant talk.
then again there is orbital http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/cust...ic129004_4.gif
  • #1,376
  • Feb 16, 2012 6:32pm Feb 16, 2012 6:32pm
You rang?
  • #1,377
  • Feb 16, 2012 7:06pm Feb 16, 2012 7:06pm
Quoting Orbital
You rang?
glad to see you around as everyone else, nice charts on PIE.
you seniors may be too busy pipsing but we noobs love to learn more from the old gang.
  • #1,378
  • Feb 18, 2012 8:21am Feb 18, 2012 8:21am
M1 gives the most information
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  • #1,379
  • Feb 21, 2012 4:44pm Feb 21, 2012 4:44pm
I don't know about you but sometimes I get too involved with levels and zones that I forget to read the PA that is right in front of me. If you were presented this chart without any pa on the left what would you do; long or short?

I have my idea of what the candles are telling me... I'm curious to what you see.

..
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  • #1,380
  • Edited 5:36pm Feb 21, 2012 5:20pm | Edited 5:36pm
Quoting Tyoon
I don't know about you but sometimes I get too involved with levels and zones that I forget to read the PA that is right in front of me. If you were presented this chart without any pa on the left what would you do; long or short?

I have my idea of what the candles are telling me... I'm curious to what you see.

..
without past there is no future, tho i say long.
momentum is up, no evidence of exhaustion and kinda local bounce triangle thingie going on (IB in larger TF).. if there was more info like TF it would be of help (although it looks M15 and lower). if unsure i would wait for IB break, if i knew more and the risk was worth it and was bouncing off something at the left i would enter aggressive at the lowest chance.
funny because i had this discussion today in our live room. pretty much the same question. let me grab a screenshot.

my small understanding of momentum comes from this thread.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=217281
i am looking forward for more answers.

@Tyoon, i like your questions. keep going .

edit: the discussion below had quite a bit more text in it, but in the last example you will see a generic similar question i asked my friends today (right bottom).
guys i am thinking of opening a room for discussion on SD and PA.
the good thing is there will be a more rapid exchange of ideas.
the bad things will be that we will be probably mostly on our own as the pros will be too bussy pipsing and that whatever we discuss wont be always transfered to the threads unless a good soul puts in the extra effort.
i dont know, is it a good idea?
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