Backtesters please, probability of consecutive Highs/Lows? | Forex Factory

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Backtesters please, probability of consecutive Highs/Lows?

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 13, 2012 10:18pm Feb 13, 2012 10:18pm
Sorry, i'm sure this info is out there somewhere but after hours googling i've given up.

I'm IT illiterate and was hoping someone could set up a backtest for me of 1m data on Eur/Usd (or tick data if possible)

I want a backtest that will give me the probability of consecutive highs or lows versus reversals. The difficult bit is i want it by waves, not by bars, so not sure how to quantify the wave, maybe high/low in x bars is the only way.

In simple terms, i want to know if a wave on a one minute chart breaks the high of the previous wave, what is the probability that the next wave will also break the high of the new wave.

I am willing to pay someone for their time to do this if it's not as straight forward as it seems and they have sufficient experience (and data).

Edit: also if i'm paying someone will probability want a bit more data, like probability of 2 consecutives, 3 consecutives etc
  • #2
  • Feb 14, 2012 12:01am Feb 14, 2012 12:01am
With all due respect, what you are asking for simply doesn't exist. If it did we could all start with just $100 and become billionaires within a year or two.

There simply is no way to project or predict price waves, at least not on the retail level. Which is where we are.

Let me repeat: It does not exist. If anyone contacts you and tells you otherwise and tries to get you to pay for it, they are scamming you.

The good news is that there is a very good thread on this topic being led by a terrific mentor. It's the closest thing on FF right now to what you are asking for: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=336854

Good luck.

FxH
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #3
  • Feb 14, 2012 8:31am Feb 14, 2012 8:31am
The OP asked for this:

Quoting havaiana
I want a backtest that will give me the probability of consecutive highs or lows versus reversals....In simple terms, i want to know if a wave on a one minute chart breaks the high of the previous wave, what is the probability that the next wave will also break the high of the new wave.
This does not exist. No one on the retail level can predict with any degree of accuracy beyond the proverbial flip of a coin the probablility factor that the OP is asking for. He is literally asking, "If price does 'this' 3 times what's the liklihood of it doing it a fourth time?" The honest answer can only be, "I don't know." Anyone who says, "Hell yes I can code an indi that will tell you what will happen next with much greater accuracy than a 50/50 coin toss..." is a best a scammer, and delusional at worst.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #4
  • Edited 9:59pm Feb 14, 2012 9:41pm | Edited 9:59pm
Quoting forexhard
With all due respect, what you are asking for simply doesn't exist. If it did we could all start with just $100 and become billionaires within a year or two.

There simply is no way to project or predict price waves, at least not on the retail level. Which is where we are.
I'm not trying to predict anything. I'm not looking for a trading method or system either. I'm just trying to find out the probability over a sample of data that price will have a consecutive break of the last wave versus an opposite break of the last wave.

I don't see how it can be that difficult, I could probably get the data and do it pretty crudely myself in excel. I just figured there might be someone with the data and know-how to do it better and faster through MT4 or something.
  • #5
  • Feb 14, 2012 10:08pm Feb 14, 2012 10:08pm
Quoting forexhard
The OP asked for this:



This does not exist. No one on the retail level can predict with any degree of accuracy beyond the proverbial flip of a coin the probablility factor that the OP is asking for. He is literally asking, "If price does 'this' 3 times what's the liklihood of it doing it a fourth time?" The honest answer can only be, "I don't know." Anyone who says, "Hell yes I can code an indi that will tell you what will happen next with much greater accuracy than a 50/50 coin toss..." is a best a scammer, and delusional at...
I would be pretty surprised if the results were 50/50 after filtering by market time. I also think it is possible to predict SOME waves with much greater accuracy than a coin toss (which side of the wave will break, not how far it will break).
  • #6
  • Last Post: May 2, 2012 11:22pm May 2, 2012 11:22pm
just saw this thread on the facebook page of FF...

interesting, but why forexhard thinks it's impossible?

It "may" be impossible to predict as a trader, but the OP is asking for a backtest method, so certainly it's not impossible to code a EA to backtest the possibility, or the probability of such instances occuring over a period of time, but if OP wants to do it over 1 minute data, I think it's going to take a long time and also taking into account there's so much noise in the 1 minute data...
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