It's gambling. If you trade martingale you are gambling not trading. Full stop!
Martingale, Anti-martingale, and Compounding 40 replies
DislikedI am no fan of martingale, but I think there is a chance how he can work for some people (sort of)
So if someone is betting this strategy with martingale, he will see increased performance, because he is risking an amount far from optimal in first place.
Conclusion: if martingale works for you double your lots and forget the martingaleIgnored
Now the facts here tell us that we would need to have a system which would have an implicit increase in its statistical probability to win after every negative outcome, something which cannot be proved to not exist (which means it might be possible).
However there are countless systems that have been proved to work for more than 10 years that are used by traders all over the world which have shown to resist changes in market conditions and use sound money management principles. Donchian channel systems are a good example of this.
So the question becomes : would you rather pursue an extremely risky venture that no one has publicly been able to succeed at or would you rather use trusted systems that have shown to work through a myriad of market conditions ? The answer for most professional traders here is obvious.
As always remember the saying :
"there are old and bold traders but there are no old bold traders"
I hope this helps the discussion
DislikedI see everybody here is telling martingale never work coming from mathematics and probabilistic theory. If you say according to mathematics this will never work you must accept first market is truly random which means what happened no way effects the future. If so and market is truly random it means not only martingale will not work also none of the technical analysis will also not work.
So if you say according to probability or laymans terms gambling martingale is a suicide then you must accept market is truly random which means we should stop...Ignored
DislikedDepends actually. Unlike random coin toss in the market probability of decline of price increases the longer the price increases. But this does not give any info on how much the market decline or reverse. I have seen 400 pips moves in couple of hours but never seen 1500 pips move continuously so far.
Does that mean it cant be? No ofcourse not. we can see that kind of move but it is highly unlikely. Because market is not pure mathematical equation. There is an emotional side of it.
We all know what happened with Long-Term Capital Management L.P.
DislikedThere enters the martingale. If you can master it and if your entries are high probability entries martingale gives you a second, third ... chance.Ignored
DislikedI have recently started the matriangle strategy with smaller lot,but I use it after studying the market and when I know I'm following the trend and only 2 bets,first 0.01lot and another is 0.03.if it doesn't work,i just quit this pair and don't keep on increasing the lots.i think it is a good strategy if used with precaution and without greed.Ignored