EUR/USD Starts Week with 61.8% Retracement Pullback

Quoting Mike Haran

Disliked

smikester, hahaha nice post I use price action with volume, I do use technical analysis correctly too, but on a level you are just dreaming about. If the person who wrote the article wants to get up in a public place and open his knowledge to others then he should have a thicker skin. If he can't justify his position then, he should not post it. I was calling a top in the eurusd. Lookie here

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...02#post5368108

I give not a damm if anyone has a go at me here, but to be honest show...

Ignored

Greetings folks... just cant help myself on this great discussion...

In conjuction with EW pattern recognition, I use 9 different fib tools/measurements and add price symmetry. I "stack" my momentum indicators and "sync" them up with my charts.

I then add a rule based entry/exit system.

My success rate generates positive pips month in and month out, and advanced fibs are a very big part - a huge part - of that success.

The system I use works on any market, any timeframe... stocks, forex, futures, 1 min, 1 hour, 1 month...

Sometimes I feel like a schoolkid cheating on his math test...

I agree... writers of these articles can really screw the newbies... go ahead and be vulgar - please - let 'em have it for being so irresponsible

Furthermore, I agree that if you are newbie and you think that any of these FREE articles or a free ebook is going to help you, you should probably stay on a demo account...

Thought: If it is free, it means that likely it wasnt good enough to sell....
let that tell you something when you are reading that next great free ebook

Thanks again for the great dialog guys, good stuff!

Feb 13, 2012 5:31pm

Sorry it's kinder garden homework, no one makes consistent money from these kind of charts. You need to find something to beat the mob, rather than something that the mob is using. The mob looses in trading.

My advise to new traders, learn EW and use that with pitch forks on multiple time scales. Find the frequency of each time scale by counting bars from high to highs and low to lows. The closer you get to a cycle length the better the chances of a successful trade. Only use oscillators for divergence, nothing else.

Feb 14, 2012 12:47am

The big players make allot of their money from the mob, from mob stops, from mob strategies and mob psychology.

Sure Fibonacci underlies the structure of the market, there is no doubt and it goes hand in hand with EW, however its more than just restractments from the last little swing high low. Fib lines actually bend with time and there are also Fib ratios in TIME, not just price. By lining up the cycle lengths with fib time ratio, you can be where the big moves are.

Congrats on your success deanoracer.

Feb 14, 2012 1:38am

Well your example of that retracement is fib price only, not time and price, hence my previous point.

In anycase you need to look for confluence of say a fib p&t S/R, with a median line / parallel line S&R and perhaps some divergance along with your wave count.

Feb 14, 2012 3:29am — Edited

Not sure who Robert Minors is, never heard of him, I've read very little of anyone to be honest.

As for EW, a famous EW trader is Paul Tudor Jones. Now he saw in '86 we where exhausting the end of wave 5 of a super cycle. He trades almost exclusively EW. He picked the 87 crash to the month and made millions on that very day ... he is now worth about 3.5 billion.

I'm not giving it all away here, but in my opinion, EW and proper fib (phi) explains the entire history of the market if you look into it.

Turtle Trader and Bill WIlliams are 70's .. that stuff just dosn't work anymore .. even MA crosses and box break outs worked then.

Feb 14, 2012 8:02am — Edited

On my chart the last rally stopped to the very pip on a resistance line and then turned (can't post chart here unfortunately).

I am short I have been for about 24 hours and will stay that way, no I didn't jump out with a 25pip SL or TS like the mob. I didn't give my money to commercial.

The right technicals at the right time will lead fundamentals, or mute their effect or exaggerate the effect, it all depends. Look into the long rally out of the GFC for example, it rallied on bad news over and over again. When the market has a mission to complete .. it will complete it.

The flash crash was another example, related to a rejection on a median line connecting the 2002 crash AND the 2008 GFC crash also the end of Wave 5 from the bottom of the GFC (666 on the ES). It's all there for those who wish to investigate it.

silvia77

Feb 13, 2012 3:29am

Quoting wawasalsa

Disliked

every one Will regret not to sell in that level

Ignored

try to make speculation..............

lietuve

Feb 13, 2012 4:00am

The real news in this chart is that Mr.Yang has introduced a new fibo 78.6%!
It really works on his chart

seanpark

Feb 14, 2012 1:07am

there are more secret of Fibonacci that only 1% knows about that
go "skunny's indicator free trading" just read 10 pages of it. you will know what's it is

tradingpalu

Feb 13, 2012 3:57am

its already down.. and still gonna down...

Feb 13, 2012 3:19am

Quoting khanarsal

Disliked

Mondj célpontot a hosszú sípszódnak

Ignored

1,34

Feb 13, 2012 3:34am

The German and a French bond wait for it auction. GTM is 10,30.

Feb 13, 2012 5:07am

Range trading onto news inside 1,316-1,33. lane. It is necessary to take the road somewhere soon.

Feb 13, 2012 5:09am

What a boring day...

Feb 13, 2012 5:19am

EU Rehn To Give Statement On Greece Vote Shortly

Feb 13, 2012 6:15am

US: his week: Budget debate to take over Congress

Feb 13, 2012 6:30am

MNI Eurozone @MNIEurozone

Germany again demands that Greek leaders affirm their support for new austerity measures. #http://goo.gl/nneEC

Feb 13, 2012 6:38am

Quoting jonahky7

Disliked

Ez csak ezen a szerdán fog zajlani Egy másik cirkuszi bemutató

Ignored

It is demanded then then that all of the Greeks should sign it.

Feb 13, 2012 8:22am

Rumor Greek PSI deal delayed again

Feb 13, 2012 8:28am

Who will shoot at least according to me 1,33.

Feb 13, 2012 8:59am

*merkel says there `can't and won't be' changes to greece plan

Pip_tracker

Feb 13, 2012 3:13am

log, long, long for EUR

Feb 13, 2012 4:01am

sorry no offence but anyone can talk and write after what happened - its not difficult. Try forecasting what's going to happen with technical before anything happen, if anyone can

I've seen this article from fxtimes (again no offence to anyone) only after events happened - sorry this does not add much weight, but would encourage the author to write something before any events happen based on technical and see where we go from there

My data is not based on technical - it's based on news!!!! Trade facts, fakes then technical. Technical is not reliable for this pair when it's so noisy.

Feb 13, 2012 4:16am

if you look at 26th Oct data and see what happened, the euro pair is still bear. Why? the vote by greece should, I use the word technically

, shoot euro to kiss 1.33 early this morning but nothing happen. The usual trading method, buy the rumor (though there is no rumor) and sell the fact.

With the coming auctions at 10:30GMT today we should see a revisit to 1.33 if the target is hit and yield is low but I don't see euro going above 1.36. Too high euro value is shit for Europe's export though we know Greece will be exporting their people as slaves soon (crap politicians with no backbones). Merkel doesn't want high euro so does other euro countries, at least for now.

However FED wants weak dollars. So now it's a fight between Europe and US.

Quoting khanarsal

Disliked

jona wat r u lokin in euro?

Ignored

Feb 13, 2012 4:19am

Good auction results for Italy but is this enough to bring euro to kiss 1.33, we'll see what the big market manipulators will do.

@Italian auctions: Tesoro sold a total of Eur 12 bln of new Feb 14 2013 and flexi June 21 BOT’s
Written by Joe Brown
February 13, 2012 at 10:13 GMT

Out of an indicated Eur 12 bln ..

Sold Eur 8.5 bln of new Feb 14 2013 BOT’s , yield 2.23%( vs 2.735%) cover 1.09 (vs 1.47). Lowest yield since June 2011

Sold Eur 3.5 bln of flexi June 21 2012 BOT’s, yield 1.546% ( vs 1.644%) cover 1.546

Full take up and improved yields

Feb 13, 2012 4:25am

. Buy stops at 1.33

So if you want to trend short over 3-4hours, that's a rough mark (that is euro can get up there, possible it can be reach only to be sold again). Otherwise scalp as you go along either long or short.

We haven't really see a north spike as yet, so I'm not holding my breadth on early short...........but the spike may never come lol. We'll see - I'm not God but trade accordingly

saarung

Feb 13, 2012 4:39am

No techinal nor fondamantls. its amazing thing only base on charts what i am doing in practice account and hence
78% profit yet and 22% loss since last one week.

now let go the market on either sides..

Feb 13, 2012 4:42am

Firstly .618 means absolutely nothing, secondly you are using it wrongly, you are in an uptrending market, so the higher probibility is up, hence anything over 100% is fair game 127,161. Doing it like you have down it indicates a down bias, which you have no basis for. Your analysis is useless, as you approach it with a bias, I could make a better case for a push higher but I would not want to make you too sad, Markets up, we are above the daily,also over the point of control line, in an uptrend. RSI is a piece of useless junk too, you encourage people to use analysis that does not work, so this is the reason I am having a go at you, because you are basically putting people down a losing path. If you had made money with it, I doubt you would be putting a blog together. Teach winning analysis if you can not this junk.

Feb 13, 2012 4:51am

i was being more polite, but think you spoke what I wanted to say Mike

Quoting Mike Haran

Disliked

Firstly .618 means absolutely nothing, secondly you are using it wrongly, you are in an uptrending market, so the higher probibility is up, hence anything over 100% is fair game 127,161. Doing it like you have down it indicates a down bias, which you have no basis for. Your analysis is useless, as you approach it with a bias, I could make a better case for a push higher but I would not want to make you too sad, Markets up, we are above the daily,also over the point of control line, in an uptrend. RSI is a piece of useless junk too, you encourage...

Ignored

Feb 13, 2012 5:10am

Germany auction not on target, yield higher than previous. Now this is what we need to trade - not technical 38.2 61.8, whatever crap analysis.........

Today is so boring..... sorry for taking mickey at this article, cos am bored today.........

German auction: Sold Eur 3.01bln of new 6mth Aug 15 2012 Bubill’s

Out of a targeted Eur 4 bln, @ 99.957, yield 0.076% (vs -0.012%) cover 1.5 (vs 1.8)- BUBA

Feb 13, 2012 5:42am

Jonahky, thanks for the support, I have a real bee in my bonnet at the moment with monkeys in suits putting up all this technical garbage as if it actually means something. You and I know its pure rubbish and I like so many traders on this forum lost money trading this rubbish, I want to stop it because all it does is continue the myth.

Feb 13, 2012 5:46am

All I can say is if technical analysis is true, then PIGS can fly! And we'll be freaking billionaires now. It's a guide but if new traders follows these - they are asking for trouble to have their sorry butt account wept clean.

Think I found the right word to use : Opportunists!!

Quoting Mike Haran

Disliked

Jonahky, thanks for the support, I have a real bee in my bonnet at the moment with monkeys in suits putting up all this technical garbage as if it actually means something. You and I know its pure rubbish and I like so many traders on this forum lost money trading this rubbish, I want to stop it because all it does is continue the myth.

Ignored

Feb 13, 2012 6:31am

This will only take place this Wednesday

Another circus show

Quoting Sanguis

Disliked

MNI Eurozone @MNIEurozone

Germany again demands that Greek leaders affirm their support for new austerity measures. #http://goo.gl/nneEC

Ignored

mungford

Feb 13, 2012 6:33am

I'm comparing the graphs for european equities, gold and the eur/usd. Equities seem very risk on, normally the eur/usd follows. So far it has held back. Could this mean that there will be a shooting up of the eur/usd in the next half hour or so?

Feb 13, 2012 9:41am

Technically the euro is trading above the middle of the daily down channel. It has broke through last week and appears to be trying a little retrace before continuing. I am short and expect a retrace to the 60m 200 sma. It has not closed below the daily 14 sma since it broke through it in mid Jan. If it closes below that, it is short term bearish. Right now an uptrend is still intact.

Feb 13, 2012 2:48pm

smikester, hahaha nice post I use price action with volume, I do use technical analysis correctly too, but on a level you are just dreaming about. If the person who wrote the article wants to get up in a public place and open his knowledge to others then he should have a thicker skin. If he can't justify his position then, he should not post it. I was calling a top in the eurusd. Lookie here

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=341202#post5368108

I give not a damm if anyone has a go at me here, but to be honest show me a single ,just one trader making money using fib analysis I will shut my chops. As to cheap and vulgar, man you are too sensitive by far.

Feb 13, 2012 2:53pm

I use fib retracements but only as one tool. never by themselves. i only use 31.8, 50 and 61.2 though as they are the most dependable for me. One thing i don't use is emotion when i trade. It is not very dependable.

Feb 13, 2012 4:08pm

Sorry I do have to disagree on that! There are loads of new traders around who are picking up the ropes. There is a likelihood that these new traders will be following technical analysis for a start + RS. However if a technical analysis is based on what we do know the market will be, then there is no need for tech analysis. I've been observing this article for several weeks and today is the first time that article from fxtimes came so early, previously its several days late. What I'm trying to say here is nothing against the writer but I believe articles on FF should be more "regulated" least the newbies get their sorry butt wept clean!!!!! Is pointing this out cheap and vulgar then?

For newbies, please please open your eyes and see what's happening and don't follow blindly.

I remember an article from fxtimes, sometime August/Sept period that FORECAST euro bull and YES the market was bull - only 11days later!! So how many sorry butts have been wept clean becos of such technical articles?????

I believe writing such article require loads of responsibilities and relying on just RSI and FIB to predict the market, this then implies any tom, dick and harry's auto-bot WILL work too!

Quoting smikester

Disliked

Obviously you have not caught on to trading price action off support and resistance levels. If you don't use TA successfully that is your problem, and to personally target the writer is cheap and vulgar.

Ignored

Feb 14, 2012 1:20am

Fib ratio in time and price, for sure there are, but when you have a cough, its not the cough making you sick its the virus. So it is with fib ratios they are a systom of something else, hence they have no predictive value, but appear good in hind sight.

You can prove it to yourself

Go to a chart and put a .618 on the swing levels and count how many time .618 is hit to within a couple of pips, you will find over 1000 swings that its hit sometimes, but is no higher chance of stopping a move then 786,707,886. So the fib value does not stop the market, it is only a point where it might come to rest, its not the key to the market, no more than any particular swing ratio is, combine it with timing though and you do have a totally different set of tools though.

Feb 14, 2012 3:01am

Which brings us back to the fact that in isolation fibs are of little use. The key to the markets is not price, everyone looks at it as if its the critical thing, its not time is by far the most important factor. If you know where a market might turn then price is pretty easy to calculate, even using simple fib levels, support and resistance and you will make money like a trooper. I can see webart that you have read Robert Minors drivel, no offence to you, but Minor is like a blinkered horse he sees what he wants to see, he counts 5 waves where he ignores the waves just so he can get to five. I got some of his analysis calling a top in the AUD a year ago, sailed right through it. His idea of the markets does not exist in the real world and his book is populated with hand picked examples.

Ever ask yourself why old Robert is not running a hedge fund, instead he teaches traders to trade his methods at $250 a head? He has been at it 20 years if he had something surely he would be rich? My advice to any new trader here is don't follow the people that teach trading follow the people that have made money as traders.

Dennis - Turtle Traders
Bill Williams -

There is a common thread to both of these firstly they both traded in the trend direction and they looked for trades over weeks days or months and they made money, so these guys should be on all new traders lists that want to make money. Robert Minor, Larry Pesavento, Gann, Elliot are all things NOT to follow as the first two are in the business over 20 years and are NOT multi millionaires, Gann never made 50 Million, he died with an estate worth 100,000 which he made from his teachings not his trading. Elliot was almost bankrupt and borrowed money from his mates. Ask yourself who would you want to follow?

Feb 14, 2012 3:47am

Can someone use tech to analyse this piece of latest news??? I don't mean to be sarcastic, but if the author of the article can use this news to give an analysis, it will be enlightening - bet no one has a crystal ball to say it's going further south for now (though it will happen but not so soon - so stuff with technical analysis - it seldom works with this euro/usd pair), as a matter of fact it should hit back at 1.32 and beyond before coming down - IF ONLY trading euro/usd can be so easy as to follow tech analysis - again newbies open your eyes and not be fooled by tech reports or your sorry butt will be wept clean, take or locked TP at each RS lines and don't use large SL when you can't afford to:

1.) @CHINA PM: CHINA READY TO DO MORE TO HELP SOLVE EMU CRISIS

2.) Dow Jones reports.

Sees EUR/USD at 1.3000 in 1 month, up from previous 1.2000

Sees EUR/USD at 1.25oo in 3 months, up from previous 1.1500

Also raises 3 month USD/JPY forecast to 77.00 from previous 75.00.

3.) BIS sold at 1.3275 yesterday and started buying at 1.313 today - if they don't trade then trading will be easier but as the saying goes NO ONE has the crystal ball and FIBON, RSI, only give an indication but should not be followed!!!!!!!!

Feb 14, 2012 6:59am

Seems my query didn't get any response from the author or pro RSI, FIBON technical analysis folks. Sorry but not being nasty, but what I said this morning comes true, followed the news it went up slightly above 1.32 and down again. If newbies trader had open a short this morning at the minor RS, they would have been begging to get out of the trade!!!!

I seriously believe authors of such articles MUST have a lot of responsibility, otherwise they are simply causing misery to newbies traders. No offence to newbies but it's true!!! So open your eyes and follow not tech analysis, use them as a guide but not to trade!!! Otherwise you are simply asking for trouble.

Wonder when will the day comes when articles are regulated before they are even published!!!!! No offence to authors as well but before getting oneself to centre stage, try trading with real money and then your analysis can come in.

Feb 13, 2012 3:17am

1.3190 --1.3140. TODAY

Feb 13, 2012 3:18am

we have enough time

Feb 13, 2012 3:23am

1.3285 is history now

Feb 13, 2012 3:26am

every one Will regret not to sell in that level

Feb 13, 2012 3:42am

i did already !

Quoting silvia77

Disliked

try to make speculation..............

Ignored

Feb 13, 2012 7:38am

oh boy ! wtf ..,, my a$$ was glued to the chair for nothing...screw it

Feb 13, 2012 7:51am

yeah !

Quoting jonahky7

Disliked

that;s technical for you then lol

Ignored

Feb 13, 2012 7:59am

shit! Although the euro will go down but it will escalate at the end of the market

Feb 13, 2012 8:54am

some body missing in this fourm?

Feb 13, 2012 8:55am

come on show your self

Feb 13, 2012 9:00am

dont be shy ...................do you still wearing that long pants

Feb 13, 2012 9:03am

1.36 cm

Feb 13, 2012 9:06am

man !the market today sounds dangerous ...i just got out of it and it is enough for today ,i am going to do some thing usefull

Feb 13, 2012 9:09am

i hope you get some thing from this fcking trend ...good and hard luck to you

Quoting jonahky7

Disliked

u sound spooky....... who is missing.......

I see dead people

Ignored

Feb 13, 2012 9:18am

good play ! i had only one position 1.3279 and just closed in 1.3219 and i am going to play with my kids PS3 now i could make better score there

khanarsal

Feb 13, 2012 3:15am

Tell target for ur long pip

khanarsal

Feb 13, 2012 3:48am

dont opt for short atlest befor 3325

Feb 13, 2012 4:03am

yap jona u rite

Feb 13, 2012 4:04am

jona wat r u lokin in euro?

Feb 13, 2012 5:03am

Really LMAO - Bank of Italy blaming "technical glitch" for rubbish bid-to-cover at auction

Feb 13, 2012 5:12am

Finally some fart from Merkel

. Merkel spokesman: German government welcomes decisions in Greek Parliament

For how long lmao

Feb 13, 2012 5:23am

@ EU Rehn To Give Statement On Greece Vote Shortly

Feb 13, 2012 5:27am

Rehn: "my view is that a disorderly default of greece would have devastating consequences for Greek society - esp the weak members"

we know that what else?

Feb 13, 2012 5:31am

@*REHN IS `CONFIDENT' GREECE TO MEET DEMAND FOR BAILOUT FEB. 15

Yes yes, what else do you have?

Feb 13, 2012 7:29am

boring day

Feb 13, 2012 7:42am

that;s technical for you then lol

Quoting wawasalsa

Disliked

oh boy ! wtf ..,, my a$$ was glued to the chair for nothing...screw it

Ignored

Feb 13, 2012 8:01am

there is still room to spike (not big ones) before down again. Let;s see what the us market brings us before we do anything

Feb 13, 2012 8:24am

wtf?!

Feb 13, 2012 8:55am

Now that ECB is reducing its bond buying, we are likely to get less traps, hopefully!!! ECB bought just EUR 59 bln in latest week, down from 124 mln previous week

Feb 13, 2012 9:01am

u sound spooky....... who is missing.......

I see dead people

Quoting wawasalsa

Disliked

some body missing in this fourm?

Ignored

Feb 13, 2012 9:14am

not too bad today, 110 but enough

Trader#8E71

Feb 13, 2012 9:29am

Quoting wawasalsa

Disliked

good play ! i had only one position 1.3279 and just closed in 1.3219 and i am going to play with my kids PS3 now i could make better score there

Ignored

now i could make better score there.. That's sound good

adewale

Feb 13, 2012 1:31pm

waiting for a viable position, its scary now keep off

Feb 13, 2012 2:06pm

eur/usd 60m 200 sma. this acts lower to me but this is my target for today. i cover here

Feb 13, 2012 3:48pm

Jaydee thanks for stepping up, so what your saying is you don't trade fib on its own, but your method uses fib analysis as a componant part. This I get, anyone else?

Feb 13, 2012 5:25pm

yes Mike, i use them on longer term charts mostly. The longer term charts transcend their fibs to the lower time frames so i see them in the shorter term trading and respect them there.

Feb 13, 2012 7:42pm

I don't worry about any mob. I like finding something that the big guys are using and use it to. They are NOT losing at trading. That is how they got to be big.

clockwork71

Feb 13, 2012 11:58pm

They got to be big because they had more money than you in the first place. Capitalization is key.

Trader#8E71

Feb 13, 2012 7:33am

Quoting jonahky7

Disliked

boring day

Ignored

Agree .. such a Lolz day..

Trader#E46E

Feb 13, 2012 7:42am