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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #30,961
  • Feb 12, 2012 6:47pm Feb 12, 2012 6:47pm
ok Q & A time
any questions?
  • #30,962
  • Feb 12, 2012 6:50pm Feb 12, 2012 6:50pm
Quoting Arhs99
He means his average position (I'm using the name that Oanda uses)
So when he says cost 31, he means average position 1.3231
But keep reading the thread from the beginning, you will find even more useful stuff
ok alligater,
Arhs is correct that my position cost of the euro.

when you doing business, you must know at all times your cost of merchandise if you are away from volatility range
this only way to stay in business.

understand?

When trading, I am watching 3 kingdoms and their subs.
inclusive crosses.
For the morning all indications was overall usd strength.
So drop in euro was due to usd strength more than euro weakness.

If you get rigid bias you will not see anything.
this reason why mind need releasse bias and mind must focus what markets are doing.
Including being aware the fundementsal happenings asw well as the technical form.

for you , you may not be able do advance strategies.
I difficult markets , this what required stay alive.
now i taken enough profits, even if they force me on the euro if i sell now.
There is no way they can cut me daily P&L.

Always work from foreign cap.
risk can escalate, only if can draw the foreign cap first.
Other wise you risking cap.
rule 1 & 2 & 3


regards
  • #30,963
  • Feb 12, 2012 6:53pm Feb 12, 2012 6:53pm
Quoting fti
ok alligater,
Arhs is correct that my position cost of the euro.

when you doing business, you must know at all times your cost of merchandise if you are away from volatility range
this only way to stay in business.

understand?

When trading, I am watching 3 kingdoms and their subs.
inclusive crosses.


regards
how many pair you watch same time...

3 kgd and there cross could be 2^3 =8 or more?


V
  • #30,964
  • Feb 12, 2012 6:57pm Feb 12, 2012 6:57pm
Quoting fti

squared all as costing for euro too low
will reaccess on rallly
Did you mean that you were too far away from the hourly average and you preferered to take profit?
Would you target 1.3200 if (hypothetically) you stayed in?
  • #30,965
  • Feb 12, 2012 7:00pm Feb 12, 2012 7:00pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
how many pair you watch same time...

3 kgd and there cross could be 2^3 =8 or more?


V
on screens i have 22 charts, 1 of which i not pay attention to , so is 21


regards
  • #30,966
  • Edited 7:12pm Feb 12, 2012 7:00pm | Edited 7:12pm
Quoting Arhs99
Did you mean that you were too far away from the hourly average and you preferered to take profit?
Would you target 1.3200 if (hypothetically) you stayed in?
No.
If you remember fridays trades.
My cost never runs away from markets.
Once cost runs away like what happened today, that means i am not in the market flow.
there fore had to strategise draw from other markets
and square out as well as possible.
When on flow is very fluid.
today was not
friday was more fluid.
so mean today i "out of range".
need realign to the new volatility later.
The sigma of today drew away from my cost too quickly.
so my volatility read was wrong.

Although still have lots bullets, i prefer work with foreign cap.
Makes next volatility attempt much safer.
Now i have profits from 5 markets.
so next attempt on 1 pair will be extremely safe even if they want make more volatile
if same happens i will draw on all markets again if opportunity arises.

This is a capitals game, if you have the dough, there are lots strategies to arrest all sorts markets.
From what happen earlier, I am guessing volatility will up
so strategy need widen the legs adapt.
  • #30,967
  • Feb 12, 2012 7:08pm Feb 12, 2012 7:08pm
Quoting fti
No.
If you remember fridays trades.
My cost never runs away from markets.
Once cost runs away like what happened today, that means i am not in the market flow.
there fore had to strategise draw from other markets
and square out as well as possible.
When on flow is very fluid.
today was not
friday was more fluid.
so mean today i "out of range".
need realign to the new volatility later.
The sigma of today drew away from my cost too quickly.
so my volatility read was wrong.
That's an important concept that was not clear to me before. Thanks for explaining
  • #30,968
  • Feb 12, 2012 7:16pm Feb 12, 2012 7:16pm
Quoting Arhs99
That's an important concept that was not clear to me before. Thanks for explaining
for newbies i know is difficult flow tlike this.
Needs much market experience.
At least you need drop the crystall balls and focus dance the 1 leg.
when you mastered that then you can do 3 kingdoms like i did.
I did 1 kindgom to 3 kingdoms, then 5 kingdoms, which later consolidated back to 3 before squaring out.
I not even did the sub crosses yet. If the 5 kindoms gets into trouble it spills over to the sub kingdoms.


regards
  • #30,969
  • Feb 12, 2012 7:16pm Feb 12, 2012 7:16pm
Quoting fti
No.
If you remember fridays trades.
My cost never runs away from markets.
Once cost runs away like what happened today, that means i am not in the market flow.
there fore had to strategise draw from other markets
and square out as well as possible.
When on flow is very fluid.
today was not
friday was more fluid.
so mean today i "out of range".
need realign to the new volatility later.
The sigma of today drew away from my cost too quickly.
so my volatility read was wrong.

Although still have lots bullets, i prefer work with foreign cap.
Makes...

So Chief,

If I understand this correctly, it means that you may take positions in other pairs that are moving opposite your position in the original pair? In order to profit from one as the other is moving against you?

Thanks
Mike
  • #30,970
  • Feb 12, 2012 7:20pm Feb 12, 2012 7:20pm
Quoting tubguy
So Chief,

If I understand this correctly, it means that you may take positions in other pairs that are moving opposite your position in the original pair? In order to profit from one as the other is moving against you?

Thanks
Mike
it depends what impulse is doing.
Is impulse is in line like today you go 1 way.
today was usd strength.
You need quick snap shots of what each is doing relative to your core positioning.
You need at all time be aware what the sigma, (speed of delta change) is doing, across the board.
That tells if the market can trend or not.

Is not difficult , because all are quoted against the usd.
you need recognise what each is doing against the usd.

Today usd sigma was building across the board., but due to manipulation is not filtering into the euro/usd.
What i did was take advantage of all the sigma strengths build the position then when i took profit other kingdoms i pilled all the risk onto euro, and she gave way.


regards
  • #30,971
  • Feb 12, 2012 7:21pm Feb 12, 2012 7:21pm
Quoting fti
No.
If you remember fridays trades.
My cost never runs away from markets.
Once cost runs away like what happened today, that means i am not in the market flow.
there fore had to strategise draw from other markets
and square out as well as possible.
When on flow is very fluid.
today was not
friday was more fluid.
so mean today i "out of range".
need realign to the new volatility later.
The sigma of today drew away from my cost too quickly.
so my volatility read was wrong.

Although still have lots bullets, i prefer work with foreign...
health is good???

V
  • #30,972
  • Feb 12, 2012 7:29pm Feb 12, 2012 7:29pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
health is good???

V
right eye is in trouble, so actually wanted say i take a rest, while keep left eye on the market. If she twitches before franfurt comes in i himm hammer her again.
I never trade to my bias, always to what markets are doing.

Today my emotions not so good.
Whitney died. She sings with so much good aura, wondering why it turned out this way for her.
She had good reach to God,wonder what broke her?
I feeling some sad.



regards
  • #30,973
  • Feb 12, 2012 7:32pm Feb 12, 2012 7:32pm
Quoting fti
right eye is in trouble, so actually wanted say i take a rest, while keep left eye on the market. If she twitches before franfurt comes in i himm hammer her again.
I never trade to my bias, always to what markets are doing.

Today my emotions not so good.
Whitney died.


regards

Love ur humility..take some rest....we all are here for ur good rest...


V
  • #30,974
  • Feb 12, 2012 7:34pm Feb 12, 2012 7:34pm
Quoting fti
it depends what impulse is doing.
Is impulse is in line like today you go 1 way.
today was usd strength.
You need quick snap shots of what each is doing relative to your core positioning.
You need at all time be aware what the sigma, (speed of delta change) is doing, across the board.
That tells if the market can trend or not.

Is not difficult , because all are quoted against the usd.
you need recognise what each is doing against the usd.

Today usd sigma was building across the board., but due to manipulation is not filtering into the euro/usd.
What...
Thank you sir. I think I understand.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #30,975
  • Feb 12, 2012 10:28pm Feb 12, 2012 10:28pm
Star from 1:30

Inserted Video




V
  • #30,976
  • Edited Feb 13, 2012 1:41am Feb 12, 2012 11:34pm | Edited Feb 13, 2012 1:41am
Rested, now eye OK.

Seems whole world is lost of what to do.
waiting for Frankfurt decide what they want to do.
So times like this whatever pattern you see on TA is just illusions.
up or down both has 50% probability of occurance.

if you bias dictates you need fight it out.
if you trading professionally , then you wait.
since i went sleep , there had been low volatility buying.
the buyer is very strong.
however he not want push too hard,
indicates he either very big player or he is CB and holding market.

There is market talk bank analyst seeing 70 yen in 2012.
Its these types talking that i need avoid.
If i know, then i just sell all i have and buy usd/yen.
The timing no one knows.
If wrong I join greese.

Seems Euro govts are in desperate state.
"..........a controversial scheme to charge airlines for their carbon emissions, in a row now that threatens to escalate into a full-blown trade war."

"Obama's election-year budget to target rich."

seems everyone is desperate for reserves.
  • #30,977
  • Feb 13, 2012 1:20am Feb 13, 2012 1:20am
EURUSD
My cost basis is 3258.
  • #30,978
  • Feb 13, 2012 1:33am Feb 13, 2012 1:33am
Am out at 60. Action is Feeling funny.
  • #30,979
  • Feb 13, 2012 2:37am Feb 13, 2012 2:37am
Hmmm.. Very interesting thread. Thanks FTI for recommendations on market structure books. I'll go through those readings before moving forward.
  • #30,980
  • Feb 13, 2012 2:50am Feb 13, 2012 2:50am
sorry, i cannot trade now too weak, need rest.
so you try do your demos .
Now flow is currencies up
usd weak.

regards
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