Price is Everything Chat Room | Page 68 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Fozzy Chat Room 7 replies

Attachments: Price is Everything Chat Room
Exit Attachments

Price is Everything Chat Room

  • #1,341
  • Feb 11, 2012 9:19am Feb 11, 2012 9:19am
Quoting mertch
Just a newbie theory...
Assume that buy orders and sell orders are about equal, we don't need a lot of sell order to take it back down.
We have to reach some buy orders to get back in.

Sorry for py poor english
English is not the problem
With the same logic, prices could have moved higher also.
My problem is understanding why there were no other trades taken at price levels that look obvious (to me).
It almost seems that there are some traders that have some super human ability to pick only/mostly winning trades and none of the losers.
I am sure that I will be attacked for the above sentence but so be it.
The methodolgy of PIE trading is fairly clear to me but the implementation is not as I see many instances where there is a valid setup that fails and other valid setups that would have been profitable but no one takes advantage of them.

And so my journey continues.

Gabe
Every rule has an exception. Except for this one.
  • #1,342
  • Feb 11, 2012 9:30am Feb 11, 2012 9:30am
Quoting Gabe2004
English is not the problem
With the same logic, prices could have moved higher also.
My problem is understanding why there were no other trades taken at price levels that look obvious (to me).
It almost seems that there are some traders that have some super human ability to pick only/mostly winning trades and none of the losers.
I am sure that I will be attacked for the above sentence but so be it.
The methodolgy of PIE trading is fairly clear to me but the implementation is not as I see many instances where there is a valid setup that fails...
Momemtum and order flow is the key for me
  • #1,343
  • Edited 1:12pm Feb 11, 2012 10:00am | Edited 1:12pm
Quoting Gabe2004
What is the significance of the entry point of the original chart?
Hi Gabe. IMO, I don't think the AUDUSD chart was the only chart used to decide the entry. The 15M entry is quite simple, retest of previous high. Perhaps it was initially intended to be a scalp but was reconsidered to be held as a swing when evidence of selling was present on AU and across correlated pairs.

The reason for exit is very clear on the chart.

Just my thoughts.

EDIT/ADD: this zone can be tightened up a bit more on lower tfs but here we have ignored demand turn to supply. took me a while to find it.

..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: auesupply.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #1,344
  • Feb 11, 2012 10:06am Feb 11, 2012 10:06am
Quoting Tyoon
Hi Gabe. IMO, I don't think the AUDUSD chart was the only chart used to decide the entry. The 15M entry is quite simple, retest of previous high. Perhaps it was initially intended to be a scalp but was reconsidered to be held as a swing when evidence of selling was present on AU and across correlated pairs.

The reason for exit is very clear on the chart.

Just my thoughts.
I agree with the reason for the exit and your explanation about a scalp turned swing makes sense as well.

How about other possible entry points that I marked?
Whould you or anybody say that they were valid entry points into short trades?

Gabe
Every rule has an exception. Except for this one.
  • #1,345
  • Edited 10:43am Feb 11, 2012 10:31am | Edited 10:43am
Quoting Gabe2004
I agree with the reason for the exit and your explanation about a scalp turned swing makes sense as well.

How about other possible entry points that I marked?
Whould you or anybody say that they were valid entry points into short trades?

Gabe
The first two did not have that much profit margin. There were close-by support levels that would only have made the trades good for short-term trades.

The last two entries seemed like good ones because they were at resistance. I think general trend and sentiment on this pair and related pairs would have kept you from keeping the shorts for bigger swings.

ADD: 'last two entries' I mean these two 1 (http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=896276&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1328968906) 2 (http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=896279&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1328969260)

..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: auentys.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #1,346
  • Feb 11, 2012 11:34am Feb 11, 2012 11:34am
Quoting Tyoon
Hi Gabe. IMO, I don't think the AUDUSD chart was the only chart used to decide the entry. The 15M entry is quite simple, retest of previous high. Perhaps it was initially intended to be a scalp but was reconsidered to be held as a swing when evidence of selling was present on AU and across correlated pairs.

The reason for exit is very clear on the chart.

Just my thoughts.

ADD: also, if you look back in history we see supply broken, become demand, broken, now has become supply. White line indicates where price turned the other day.

.....
Something trigger the all market, that is what I see to.
What is something?
This is what I'm searching for. I'm sure someone have a clue here.
  • #1,347
  • Edited 1:43pm Feb 11, 2012 1:28pm | Edited 1:43pm
Quoting Tyoon
The first two did not have that much profit margin. There were close-by support levels that would only have made the trades good for short-term trades.

The last two entries seemed like good ones because they were at resistance. I think general trend and sentiment on this pair and related pairs would have kept you from keeping the shorts for bigger swings.

ADD: 'last two entries' I mean these two 1 (http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=896276&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1328968906) 2 (http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=896279&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1328969260)...
You wrote on the chart that 1.07889 is a VERY VERY IMPORTANT LEVEL>
I was looking to the left and saw nothing of significance.
Would you mind clarifying?

Gabe
Every rule has an exception. Except for this one.
  • #1,348
  • Feb 11, 2012 2:00pm Feb 11, 2012 2:00pm
Quoting Gabe2004
You wrote on the chart that 1.07889 is a VERY VERY IMPORTANT LEVEL>
I was looking to the left and saw nothing of significance.
Would you mind clarifying?

Gabe
SR pivot.

..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ausr.gif Size: 6 KB
  • #1,349
  • Feb 11, 2012 2:11pm Feb 11, 2012 2:11pm
Quoting Tyoon
SR pivot.

..
I c that one but it has nothing to do with the 1.07889 level that was used to enter into the short in my original post.
Sorry but I still don't understand.

Gabe
Every rule has an exception. Except for this one.
  • #1,350
  • Edited 6:45pm Feb 11, 2012 2:16pm | Edited 6:45pm
An excersize.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU possibilities.jpg Size: 164 KB
Every rule has an exception. Except for this one.
  • #1,351
  • Feb 11, 2012 2:27pm Feb 11, 2012 2:27pm
[quote=Gabe2004;5376632]Assuming we would be back in time (at the right edge of each of my 4 charts) why wouldn't one short at those points?
What is the significance of the entry point of the original chart?
I added a daily chart showing what is to the LEFT and what I see is very vague.
The actual entry was about 130 pips ABOVE the prior dauly peak.

Hi Gabe,

Ok, my view...
Yes this daily high was taken out but If we look at the Weekly chart, we see a significant Weekly Supply around 1, 0840 . Since the AUDUSD was previously bullish, everyone and their dog would look to buy here, they might have thought that since this high was taken out, this pair would trade high and higher.Looks like a trap to me....
The entry on the 15 min is based on the retest of the weekly supply at New York Open. Price dropped 25 pips but I think that there was some big orders that needed to be filled before price could drop any further.
When we have a higher TF supply/demand, price usually re-test the level on a lower TF before moving powerfully away...At least this is what I have observed.

@mel
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 15min.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #1,352
  • Feb 11, 2012 2:32pm Feb 11, 2012 2:32pm
I like this explanation more than my question
Every rule has an exception. Except for this one.
  • #1,353
  • Feb 11, 2012 2:36pm Feb 11, 2012 2:36pm
I forgot about the 1. 0788 level that you talked about...
I see it as previous supply, that turned demand, that turned supply...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: s-d-s.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #1,354
  • Edited 11:11pm Feb 12, 2012 10:39pm | Edited 11:11pm
Notwithstanding the great posts and charts by @mel, I'm starting to think Kenny just throws trades out there when price fails to make a new high (or low) on the basis "if it's not making a new extreme it must be retreating from it" !

So long as the wicks form in an area of some meaning. If it was just a pullback then he's scalped otherwise he holds the trade.

Edit: However Ken made a very helpful post here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5377473#post5377473
Good Trading
  • #1,355
  • Feb 13, 2012 10:04am Feb 13, 2012 10:04am
Hi Gabe,
here is my point of view (better late than never):

Ken has his own style of drawing and trading s&d zones. To analyse his trades you have to take alot of things into consideration. For example he is extremely good in reading market structure. He works alot with support and resistance lines, he has a superior knowledge of PA, he analyses the usd-index...

To cut a long story short it's sometimes not easy to understand his entries.

In the attached ss I try to show that market structure and PA could be reason enough to take the trade.

I hope that helps a little bit
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15m tf.gif Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: your zone.png Size: 586 KB
  • #1,356
  • Feb 13, 2012 10:13pm Feb 13, 2012 10:13pm
Quoting MCFly
Hi Gabe,

I hope that helps a little bit

Thank you.

Gabe
Every rule has an exception. Except for this one.
  • #1,357
  • Feb 14, 2012 8:00am Feb 14, 2012 8:00am
Please see the QQQ chart in the following SS article -

http://www.tradingacademy.com/lessons/20120214/featured_article.htm

Here are some questions I want answered which will hopefully cement your knowledge in S&D trading -

1. What was the trigger for taking the short?
2. Why did he take the short from this particular supply zone?
3. Why did he choose the 3 TP targets?

I know it is easier with price history and showing the successful trade, but imagine holding a piece of paper and pretend it is the hard right-edge as you slowly reveal each candlestick BEFORE the supply is created.

I will provide answers in a day or two time. I would like to see as many answers as possible before then!
  • #1,358
  • Feb 14, 2012 8:12am Feb 14, 2012 8:12am
http://www.tradingacademy.com/lessons/20120214/sam_forex_article.htm

Here is an article by my personal instructor, which discusses support/resistance and demand/supply.

I think some of my well-versed lower timeframe S&D friends on FF might disagree with his statement -

"Think about this. The more trades you take on a day-to-day basis, then the more financial risk you are potentially allowing as well. The less trades you take with tight sensible stops and greater potential rewards leads to an overall lower risk profile as you are not exposed to the market as often."

Food for thought!
  • #1,359
  • Feb 14, 2012 12:20pm Feb 14, 2012 12:20pm
Quoting bbakker
...
1. What was the trigger for taking the short?
2. Why did he take the short from this particular supply zone?
3. Why did he choose the 3 TP targets?
...
1. for me the trigger would be the way price approached the area (it rallied hard towards it), providing enough space for the price to drop before meeting resistance again (easy up easy down).

2. short at a DBD area. price dropped enough for almost 1:3 (risk:reward) for the first target (crating another base there) and then quite some more before going up again (where he placed his 2nd target)
in terms of enhancers (the list from Kenneth Lee's thread)
i. strength of move away from the level is good
ii. r:r good
iii. big picture, lol its a 5 minute chart.
iv. first time that price revisits the area
v. i cant quite see from the picture but price seems to have based on that level for 3-5 bars leaving a tidy area (no huge upper wicks)
vi. arrival good.
vii. i think Ken forgot one in his list, >how long did price spend away from the level?< even thought this is a 5min chart i guess "enough"

3. the 1st target is happens to be almost the same area where price based when it first dropped, and where it based on its way up before the final push.
the 2nd target is where the big drop end (swing low) and price rallied up again indicating possible big imbalance of orders there.
the 3rd target is at the first obvious base (RBR) after the gap.

i hope i am at least half-right on the above and would love to hear your feedback in everything that i missed. also i hope to see what more ppl think, there are many great minds here.
i have a question also, why this (blue arrow) lower base didnt work? i always get caught up on these.
thanks a lot, and please dont stop posting (just take it easy), i learn a lot from you and the other pioneers of SD here.
Attached Image
  • #1,360
  • Feb 14, 2012 1:07pm Feb 14, 2012 1:07pm
Quoting asos101
...
thanks a lot, and please dont stop posting (just take it easy), i learn a lot from you and the other pioneers of SD here.
Excellent stuff! Missed a couple of things but I would like to see if anyone else can spot it, otherwise an excellent and valiant attempt at answering the questions. I give you an A-

I will also answer as to why the blue arrow pointing to supply was not chosen by SS, which is an excellent question in return.

Anyone else can spot anything that was missed?
1 trader viewing now