2012 Trading Journal

(Note: I am not a profitable trader. If you decide to follow my trade style do so on demo)
(More than just the trading system below is being used!)


Here I will track my trading successes and failures. The system is a fairly simple no indicator approach. Details below

On a daily chart plot a horizontal line (blue on my charts) at each significant HH/LL & HL/LH. This will serve as places to watch for major reversal or retrace.

Next we have a 20 pip by 8 hour grid. This plots a grid on the chart with vertical lines every 8 hours and horizontal lines every 25 pips. Blue vertical lines for each new day and golden lines for pip increments. This helps with determining how far price has already moved throughout the day without taking the time to measure. It will also helps with profit targets.

For entries I will be using a method called "count back" or V reversal formation. Lets say we are in a down trend and price retraces and is expected to continue with the down trend. For every extreme high count back two bars and place a sell stop order at the low of the second bar. Keep moving the sell stop order till price reverse. Same for a uptrend.

Count back has been reduced to one bar.

Time frame - 15M

Profit targets - from 15-30 pips, Daily pivot points (blue lines), and short term support/resistance.

Stop - placed under/above the high or low or max 2%.

Trading hours - 6am to 2pm EST.

Goals:

15 pips per day
75 pips per week
300 pips per month

After this year (2012) if I have successfully traded this approach with the above targets I should have the confidence and knowhow to start trading $2,500. Also have added trade explorer to the thread.

Example of a down trend count back. Third box is supposed to say = In this case price continues down for more than 50 pips.
This is a prime example many trades will be smaller.

http://i1083.photobucket.com/albums/...ount_Back_.png

Shorted EUR/USD at 1.3254. Price retraced at my entry level which was mistakenly put one bar above from where the sell stop should have been. As most traders like to say have patience. I was disciplined enough to let the market retrace for 45 min then finally get positive. However I exited early because of a small retracement for only 5 pips where 10 could have been gotten.

Note to self -

The market rewards disciplined traders. Stay disciplined when a trade is both at a loss and in profit.

The way I see it EUR is still in no mans land that is it is still in range can't make up it mind which way is want to go suit politicians perfectly to stay flat as long as possible. Off course speculators will want to make it its is mind sooner rather then latter.

Bought EUR/USD at 1.3259 as price broke a recent pivot. Stop is at 1.3242 which is also the next signal.

Edit: Here is what the current positions looks like.

Note: Price must move at least 2 or 3 candles one way or the other to be considered a pivot. One is not enough unless it is at least 3 times the size of a normal candle. I did not follow this rule today. Be disciplined

Edit2: Moved stop and sell order to 1.32460 as market makes a new high. Missed the chance to get out of the buy order. Currently waiting for confirmation of direction.

Stop hit and sell order opened.
Closed sell order for a few pips. Buyers kept pushing price up off of a support level.

http://i1083.photobucket.com/albums/...02-13_0808.png


Set buy stop for 1.3249 and sell stop for 1.3232
Sell order opened and closed at short term support.

Attached is a trading discipline pdf. It has been vary helpful to me maybe it will help you to.

I'm not looking for long term trades. Only from short term pivot to pivot nothing more nothing less. So whether or not the long term view is undecided doesn't really matter all that much. 10-25 pips is the goal each trade.

Sitting in front of the computer micro managing todays trades didn't work so well. The first signal was perfect according to the rules. Had I not been watching the retraces it would be 30+ pips.

Notes to self:

Stick to the rules
Believe in the system
Don't micro manage

Edit:
Consolidation and rejection of 0.618 fib
Buy stop @ 1.32230
S/L @ 1.32020

Buy order triggered

Today's total -28 pips

Selling EUR/USD today
Exited to early again +16 pips
Really need to work on that.

http://i1083.photobucket.com/albums/...02-14_0805.png

Second trade Buy targeting mid bollinger band. PA showed resistance at 618 fib exited for 1 pip
http://i1083.photobucket.com/albums/...ps/fdsfsfs.png

As you can see my charts have changed yet again. The reason for this is I've always wanted to be able to scalp but it hasn't been working out to well. So why not trade longer term? Pips are pips after all no matter how long it takes to earn. As long as I/you/anyone end positive for the day/week/month/year who really cares how a person gets to that point?

Looking for EUR/USD buy opportunities. We have Monthly, Weekly, and Daily pivots all saying strong support.
Here is a little price action analysis for how this week is reacting to last weeks PA.
http://i1083.photobucket.com/albums/...ly_outlook.png

Took a buy scalp for 3 pips. In my opinion price will go lower somewhere between 1.3060 and 1.3020 taking out this months pivot low. Price should retrace from there and maybe after the retrace continue the previous months down trend. Then again I could be totally wrong we'll just have to wait and see.

Any thoughts on this analysis are appreciated.

Price has reached the potential reversal zone defined by the following factors 1.618 fib extension of recent swing, lower daily pivot, lower weekly pivot, upper mid monthly pivot.

Entry at 1.3030
Stop at low
BE @ + 20 pips
SL to be manually trailed every 20 pips

First target 1.272 fib extension.

The chart looks cluttered but it makes sense if you know what your looking at.
http://i1083.photobucket.com/albums/...02-15_2145.png

Price did retrace today as expected I however didn't manage to ride the wave up. Now to look for another potential reversal.

Update:

New additions to trading system

 

1. To help with defining the trend I've added last week and month high/low/mid points and a 40 simple moving average.
2. Changed the time to 30 min charts.
3. Added Sfractals indicator (same as default fractals with alert) to alert when a new trade might be forming.
4. Have now dedicated a laptop next to my main computer to trading. This will help with monitoring trades while away from the desk or while doing other things on the pc. One Day I'd like to have dual screens for now this will do just fine.
5. One bar count back entry instead of two.
6. Aiming for one profitable trade per day over several pairs.

With this set up everything looks clearer. Sure some good trades are missed as well as bad ones, which really isn't a problem. You can't lose money if your not in a trade.

New additions to profit taking

Since the account is small ($200) My risk tolerance is 20 pips to 1%. Example EUR/USD a 0.01 lot @ -20 pip is -1% of the account. To build the account and still having a preferred R/R one of two things will happen each trade

 

1. Close entry at +20 pips
2. Move stop to BE @ 20 pips and let profits run

This way I can build the account with acceptable R/R.

Future plans

Once I build the account to the point of trading two 0.01 lots ($400) with the same risk as above TP 1 will be 20 pips and TP 2 will be a manually trailed stop.

Today's trade entered a little early at consolidation. Waiting for price to move up or down.

Below is an explanation of the trade.

Closed trade -2 pips price consolidated for several hours at/below this resistance level.
SMT divergence suggest looking for sells.
We'll see what happens. This is somewhat against my own rules.

New trade

GBP/USD 30M TP 22 pips to make up for my above mistake. +22 pips

I'm newb here. How you draw the bold horizontal lines?

The light blue one near the top of the last photo? If your trading platform is metatrader 4 in the upper left hand corner there will be a vertical line, horizontal line, and diagonal line all in a row. The horizontal will draw those. Diagonal will draw trend lines ect.

Today was drawn out and exhausting (building a deck)

As far as trading goes I'm happy with the results.

+1.1% for the day

-0.3% for the week
-10.4% for the month
-11.3% for the year

not that Oh i get it.. pivot and HH LH etc...

Thank you Johnny

Not a problem anytime. This system in a nutshell is trading pivot swings HH, LL, HL, LH. The red, blue, and green dashed lines on the charts are last weeks high, low, mid point, 50% from mid to high, and 50% from mid to low. I also do this for last month. Vary helpful areas kind of like a over sold/bought indicator or you could use 2 %r indicators 1 for the number of bars in a week and one for month. Same basic concept.

Took a loss on EUR/USD today -1.1%.
Price traded right down to my entry (to the damn pip) then reversed and continued up.

New rule - Only trade with the trend. - Might just use the 40 MA like before. If the market is making HH trade long LL short.

Break even for the last two days that's a lot better than additional losses.