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UP 124%. What Should I do? Have you been in my shoes?

  • #21
  • Dec 4, 2011 12:13pm Dec 4, 2011 12:13pm
Quoting lolygagv2
That's the thing.....I don't know ANYONE who has done 100% + year over year, yet as a retail trader. I actually only know professional money managers, and their 1% swings would scare anyone who isn't capitalized well over a few million. Perhaps you can reference me if you do know anyone who has managed +50-100% over say 5 to 10 years, because I'd love to speak with them.

We retail can be in and out with our few lots instantly, Pro's trade with 1000's of lots and can't react as fast that and they can't risk as much as they have Millions they don't need to make 100% per year.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #22
  • Dec 4, 2011 12:27pm Dec 4, 2011 12:27pm
Quoting Turveyd

1000 trades is going for it some, I presume a scalper, be warned you'll get tired trading at that level for long, so take breaks.

You're absolutely right......trading round the clock, looking for the right moments, and sleep 4 hours a night. I'm going to take a few days off now.

The reason I lost my accounts before, was all in a couple trades, in which I made a stupid mistake, such as going out without a stop loss and falling asleep, taking a position with hedges, but not being able to check the news and see how quickly the fundamental sentiment changed etc...it wasn't a fundamental market risk/reward or misunderstanding, it was lacking discipline to know when to quit and sleep or realize I can't keep up with the rapidly evolving sentiment and news enough.
  • #23
  • Dec 4, 2011 12:30pm Dec 4, 2011 12:30pm
Quoting Turveyd
We retail can be in and out with our few lots instantly, Pro's trade with 1000's of lots and can't react as fast that and they can't risk as much as they have Millions they don't need to make 100% per year.
These money managers I speak of, generally had an automated system, and a trader/analyst who would monitor it 24/7 in shifts. I've seen them average 30% a month on a multi-million account for over a year. However they still do blow out occasionally of course.
  • #24
  • Dec 4, 2011 12:34pm Dec 4, 2011 12:34pm
It sounds like an addiction going on here, I can understand that it's very addictive the challenge or money side, you need to get that under control I fear which is tricky then when you do, you won't bother trade can't win.

Definately trade less, just trade the busy times, so first 60 - 90mins of UK Open, USA Open, JPY's open no point sitting around in the slow times.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #25
  • Dec 4, 2011 4:08pm Dec 4, 2011 4:08pm
If you did find your sustainable edge, you will keep winning. If you didn't you will lose, and the sooner that happens the better so you can improve and not waste too much time with something that isn't working. Look at it that way and you will realize that there is nothing to worry about.

Have balls and keep doing what you're doing with the same amount of risk, etc. Never listen to anyone especially when you're winning, e.g. people telling you to change your leverage or change your R:R or change this or change that. But there are a few good advices like the guy who spoke about analyzing results related to risk and trying to extract information from them that may help you with your trading. I definitely second that.
  • #26
  • Dec 4, 2011 4:13pm Dec 4, 2011 4:13pm
Quoting Marv
If you did find your sustainable edge, you will keep winning. If you didn't you will lose, and the sooner that happens the better so you can improve and not waste too much time with something that isn't working.

Look at it that way and you will realize that there is nothing to worry about. Keep doing what you're doing with the same amount of risk. Never listen to anyone especially when you're winning (e.g. people telling you to change your leverage or change your R:R or change this or change that). But there are a few good advices like the...
Someone else talking sense, well said, you've just earned your 3rd V.

Well said on the TIME part especially, time is what is limited, don't waste try hard, if you fail, work out why and try again, none of this 1% MM take 100years to make a bean trades!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #27
  • Dec 5, 2011 11:19pm Dec 5, 2011 11:19pm
Coming in a little late on this one perhaps but to me the focus is on the wrong thing given your explanations.

Your issue isn't your risk/reward (although JR's advice is well founded), nor is it your trading method, account size, spread, broker or execution. It seems to me it is yourself.

You have said it several times already in this thread, things to the effect of "I only lost the lot because of stupid mistake X ... or no stop loss there ... etc. etc." The issues don't lie on the screen but in the eyes looking at the screen.

Now I don't come from nowhere with this, and I don't want to come across as condescending. I have traded since 2001, burnt through more accounts and systems you can think of, but I am still around. I am a full time trader, I trade short term charts, in Asia, only during Aussie business hours, running stops of 10 pips or so all day and the family are yet to go without a meal.

I rarely let a stop get hit unless it moves too quick, I cut it short if it doesn't go my way, but it took a lot of years to get comfortable with accepting quick, small losses. To detach from the human need of self validation is bloody hard.

Also, everyone has their own journey, it took me a good 7 years to trade consistently profitable full time. Forget the 3 year rule, who exactly made that up anyway? I had cancer 4.5 years ago at age 30, evidently in Australia, if you make 5 years you are "cured", what a load of crock, what happens to those that make it to 5.5 years and kick the bucket ... they were cured remember. Someone else's statistics mean nothing to your personal journey.

My advice, wind back your risk parameters but keep trading live, and wind up the effort on emotional control, discipline, patience and understanding. Once you get a grip on ways to have some control of those parameters, you can do what you want with trading, but you can only experience those emotions and tests trading live.

Good luck mate.
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #28
  • Dec 5, 2011 11:25pm Dec 5, 2011 11:25pm
I thought you would have found our "success" (120% up) comparing to your past year "failure" (accounts burned etc.). I think following the "success" path you just 'discovered," you would be soon become a wealthy trader. IMO. Take good care (at least to your account/fund).
  • #29
  • Dec 6, 2011 5:53pm Dec 6, 2011 5:53pm
"reduce risk and target a lower return%?" That's what I would do Stay longer in the game and pick up some valuable experience. I cannot emphasize enough how much intuition you will gain by trading smaller positions. It allows you to watch the price action without emotions being involved thus allowing you to be able to evaluate your trading plan while still in the trade. Keep up the great work!
  • #30
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:55pm Dec 6, 2011 8:55pm
Quoting DojiSan
"reduce risk and target a lower return%?" That's what I would do Stay longer in the game and pick up some valuable experience. I cannot emphasize enough how much intuition you will gain by trading smaller positions. It allows you to watch the price action without emotions being involved thus allowing you to be able to evaluate your trading plan while still in the trade. Keep up the great work!
+11
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #31
  • Dec 7, 2011 8:50am Dec 7, 2011 8:50am
Quoting DojiSan
"reduce risk and target a lower return%?" That's what I would do Stay longer in the game and pick up some valuable experience. I cannot emphasize enough how much intuition you will gain by trading smaller positions. It allows you to watch the price action without emotions being involved thus allowing you to be able to evaluate your trading plan while still in the trade.
Nonsense.

Emotion is always involved, if not now then when his positions grow significantly in size proportionally to his account. The key is not in ignoring or suppressing the emotional process but in becoming fully aware of it, and then consciously separating it from the objective process (as opposed to having it mixed up with it). That way you are no longer prone to being controlled by your irrational feelings because you have risen above that through passive observation of your own behavior. You are now able to filter which thoughts are motivated by emotions and which ones are really your own rational ideas at the moment, all before these thoughts become actions.

Whereas if you don't go through this whole learning process, then when you start dealing with serious amounts of money, you become more and more prone to acting upon irrational thoughts while thinking that they are your rational ones, and only realizing the truth when it's too late. This is because you don't know how your own mind deals with such pressure because all you have been doing is avoiding/ignoring/suppressing such pressure through trading small sizes or just telling yourself "This is the last time I'll act like this! Next time I'll follow my original plan to the letter".

Just my thoughts based on my own experience, your mileage may vary.
  • #32
  • Dec 7, 2011 9:26am Dec 7, 2011 9:26am
Quoting Marv
Nonsense. ... The key is not in ignoring or suppressing the emotional process but in becoming fully aware of it, and then consciously separating it from the objective process (as opposed to having it mixed up with it). That way you are no longer prone to being controlled by your irrational feelings because you have risen above that through passive observation of your own behavior. You are now able to filter which thoughts are motivated by emotions and which ones are really your own rational ideas at the moment, all before these thoughts become actions....
Ok you are right, I should not have said "...without emotions being involved..." I should have said, "less emotions involved with smaller positions". The point I was trying to make is for the person to trade smaller positions so that he/she can stay longer in the market (not blow the account) so that the trader can gain more experience on dealing with the trades such as the one you wrote above in your reply (But I guess maybe some people will learn to control their emotions trading 100% margin in the beginning, but I don't know of anyone who has done this without blowing their accounts several times :o Peace!
  • #33
  • Edited 11:42am Dec 7, 2011 11:16am | Edited 11:42am

You have asked for opinions.
People will give many (Food for confusion; in threads like these), it will be only you who has to decide "What type are you" and have a plan for future.

Here is one.
1) I do not know your account size. So 124% logically means nothing. If you are in a developed country, even 124% on a 5k USD account doesn't mean much, going by the cost of living, your priorities and stuff. And 124% on a 10 USD account is a different mutation altogether.
I don't know your age either and your dependence on these profits for your living, so all "DEPENDS"
2)

Quote
Finally, I then returned, refocused and ready to trade with discipline precision and no fear.......That was 10 weeks ago.
I do not know which pair/pairs you traded but last 10 weeks of most majors have been quite volatile (and choppy too ) & this includes the present low volume thanksgiving and year end bleak volumes.!
Volatility usually, means less regard for general rules of Support and resistance, price action, tech analysis, etc in general (you appear to be using S & R levels, as in your 1st post)
3)Worth quoting.
Quoting Marv
Emotion is always involved, if not now then when his positions grow significantly in size proportionally to his account. The key is not in ignoring or suppressing the emotional process but in becoming fully aware of it, and then consciously separating it from the objective process (as opposed to having it mixed up with it). That way you are no longer prone to being controlled by your irrational feelings because you have risen above that through passive observation of your own behavior. You are now able to filter which thoughts are motivated...
4)
Quote
124% on year made within a 2 month period
%ge's are good for trade logs mainly. I was once up 12400%+ in 2 hrs. Nice but not a big deal!
5) If you are trading as a full time trader (trading for living), IMO, you are not "Ripe". And you know what i mean. Following Points are keeping this point in perspective. (I repeat IMO; I am not a pro either!)
6) If you are trading for "just some addon money"/"kinda part time job" , analyze your trading history in detail (how you have traded in this period) and keep following old rules and then see whether the performance repeats for next same period and then next period & thus keep using/withdrawing the money,for use, just like your part time job. I think you would be happy that way. "Making money and using it"
7) If you are trading for generating/piling some good amount of money, i mean keep making these percentages and better wanna compound/increase sizing to bring down %age profit targets &
Have a high win rate strategy &
wanna be very selective in your trades (trading high probability setups) &
you are not dependent on this money for living,&
as you said, you feel you will do mistakes like before,
then 2nd post in thread gave you a >food of thought< already!

Ending with again the same thing in start
"It will be only you who has to decide "What type are you" and have a plan for future."
Everybody is different! Find which variant you are &
The most important thing.... Find ASAP (Your stubborn'ness may forgive u to quit fx, if that gets too late)

100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/32152
  • #34
  • Feb 10, 2012 3:07pm Feb 10, 2012 3:07pm
Well! That last post was over two months ago. I managed to close out the year with a 10% gain. Started 2012 rather slowly, but confidently, I'm definitely over the "hump" of blowing out my account. No big risks for me, no more than 5% exposure in a week.
  • #35
  • Feb 10, 2012 3:56pm Feb 10, 2012 3:56pm
Quoting lolygagv2
Well! That last post was over two months ago. I managed to close out the year with a 10% gain. Started 2012 rather slowly, but confidently, I'm definitely over the "hump" of blowing out my account. No big risks for me, no more than 5% exposure in a week.
Lol... i dint realized that this thread was 2months and was about to reply to your first post before i saw you last post.

I was confident that you would blow your account (been in your shoes and i made more 100% 6-7 before blowing out. You also mentioned some traits that i had too in myself so i thought you would end up with same result as me too) but you dint and managed to end with 10% profit..... so congrats.

You did gave back 114% of the profits at which point i would have gotten into revenge trading had blown my account so congrats again.

If had't noticed that the thread 2 months old still have posted my reply it would have been,

1000 trades in ten weeks means 100 trades per week,...so either you are breaking you rules more often and overtrading or if method gives you that many trades than maybe you can work on a filter to increase you win ratio...but still your win rate is awesome. (i dont know much about scalping but maybe there are systems who generat that many trades a week so i could be off here)

The fact that you questioning your profits tells that you are not happy with them or say you think you have done something wrong and dont deserve them...again you need to find out what is that's bothering you? and trying eliminate it, so next time you make a profit you dont question yourself and know that you deserve it. I can feel it cause every time i made a 100% (most of the times in less than a month) i was never happyy cause i made of breaking my rules/overtrading/overleverging. So i was never happy with my profits too cause i knew those habits gonna bite me back soon.

Again either take the profits out of you account and fresh or reduce your risk to a point where you dont feel to GET IT BACK every time you loose a trade or two.

So do you think (in hindsight) what i have said above would have benefited you?
.
  • #36
  • Feb 11, 2012 3:27pm Feb 11, 2012 3:27pm
Quoting skyline
Hi lolygagv2,
well yes you're for sure trading with too much risk in my opinion, 5-8% risk per each trade is a secure way to ruin your finance sooner or later.
I believe that this line of thinking is somewhat flawed. Imagine that you had 100 trades at 1:1 rr and you got 70%. Now most people will say that if you are risking 8% a trade and you get 10 losses in a row then you will lose 80% of your account. First of all this is not true since 8% will be less after each trade. You will actually lose about 50% but compare your account after 100 trades risking 8% per trade with a 70% win ratio factoring in a 10 trade losing streak. Now compare that to a 2% risk. You would have had to go through a 50% drawdown but you would come out way ahead on the 8%.

Now with all that being said most people cannot psychologically deal with this. The reality is that risking 8% will cause many many more ups and downs. If you can stare an 8% loss in the eye and just reduce your lot size accordingly and not take any revenge trades and also go on a great streak and not get overconfident putting on all kinds of bad trades then I wish you luck. However most people cannot do this. One of the best ways to beat these problems is to risk less. You risk 2% per trade. When you hit that 10 trade losing streak you will be able to see things more clearly and you will be better for it. You will not take any revenge trades and your risks will stay 2% and you will have no problem doing that. I would advise you to take a long look at yourself and be honest and ask if you are strong enough. My guess would be no since almost no one is and in that case reduce your risk. Anyways with a 2% risk if you are really hitting 70% then you will be sitting on a beach sipping kiwis sooner or later just not next month.
  • #37
  • Last Post: Feb 23, 2012 12:03am Feb 23, 2012 12:03am
Quoting bfis108137
I believe that this line of thinking is somewhat flawed. Imagine that you had 100 trades at 1:1 rr and you got 70%.

Anyways with a 2% risk if you are really hitting 70% then you will be sitting on a beach sipping kiwis sooner or later just not next month.
Apart from my personal account, there's another source of trading income I use, High frequency trading (not ultra, just high). The risk is about 1% per trade with 5% max at risk daily, but each winning trade is only say +.01% (yes I did that accurately) of your account. You trade upwards of 20-40,000 trades a week in milliseconds and you will hit your losing trades 1-5 times guaranteed. Averages out to about a 2% max loss per week, to a 10% gain per week. It's quite a fun way to trade, and not manually possible.

Now that, I've gotten that setup with my partner, I'll pick up my personal account a bit more now.
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