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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #30,841
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:00pm Feb 10, 2012 1:00pm
Quoting -Michael-
Hi there FTI and All the Guys in here .
I think I didnt have an oportinity to say Thanks When you Online
For This Thread For A LEarnig Expereience not only in Trading but in real Life too and Also with you Getter better with your Health.
I am Trying to Learn from this Thread and today you give an oportunity to see you trading in real life for the once that werent here in the past to see it.
Can you please explain why this 13220 level is so important for you .
I know that it is not rigidity because you are always against regidity and we have...

its not important, michael.
Just wanted them test me on mid skews, thats all.
We can only get what they try to risk.
If they not willing to risk up then its friday, and lets see if we have any sell off.
Its nothing significant.
Just wanted them test me.
In fact i believe 13240 is possible if they try hard enouigh.
Othewise likely close probabily test 13100/20 for some pressure.
Like i said, if they wanna dance, otherwise i gonna play classical music.

regards

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  • #30,842
  • Edited 1:27pm Feb 10, 2012 1:14pm | Edited 1:27pm
ok i squared out half the positions.
so cost is crazy, they no way can test me today, P&L wise.

Not skewing any more.
troops back to barracks.

Just wait soon see whats the P today.

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Eva, poor girl, may she rest in peace.
  • #30,843
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:29pm Feb 10, 2012 1:29pm
Quoting fti
ok i squared out half the positions.
so cost is crazy, they no way can test me today, P&L wise.

Not skewing any more.
troops back to barracks.

Just wait soon see whats the P today.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFFo1pu4q7Q

Eva, poor girl, may she rest in peace.

can we rest now?

V
  • #30,844
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:33pm Feb 10, 2012 1:33pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
can we rest now?

V
who's stoping you?
I just want see where they want close.

aud lost footing
cables gonna sleep here for the week.

I need rehab.


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  • #30,845
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:36pm Feb 10, 2012 1:36pm
looks like chief is feeling good

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  • #30,846
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:37pm Feb 10, 2012 1:37pm
Quoting fti
who's stoping you?
I just want see where they want close.

aud lost footing
cables gonna sleep here for the week.

yea had abig lunch too sleepy now..will rest for week..

V
  • #30,847
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:42pm Feb 10, 2012 1:42pm
ok squared.
i better get some rest.

nice weekend all.

regards
  • #30,848
  • Edited 3:10am Feb 11, 2012 2:48am | Edited 3:10am
Quoting -Michael-
Hi there FTI and All the Guys in here .
I think I didnt have an oportinity to say Thanks When you Online
For This Thread For A LEarnig Expereience not only in Trading but in real Life too and Also with you Getter better with your Health.
I am Trying to Learn from this Thread and today you give an oportunity to see you trading in real life for the once that werent here in the past to see it.
Can you please explain why this 13220 level is so important for you .
I know that it is not rigidity because you are always against regidity and we have...
Well rested,
Was extremely exhausted last night.
Micheal,Now I like explain to you.
While trading, a trader will encounter all sorts news , reports and views of whats happening in other related markets. Also the feel of the markets its impulses and levels of volatility. On top of that there is bias due to fundementals. So in a traders mind is heaps of info and feelings.
The 13220 meant nothing. Just a feel of possible volatility possibility.
Whats important is a traders ability in pulsing the flows. Then strategies and re strategies adjusting to the flow thats happening in real time.
Did you knotice, the bias , then changing of stance from cautious to aggresive, then frastration of the volatility against percieved volatility...etc..etc How many times the mindset changed to suit flow of whats happening. Adjusting and re adjusting risk as time passed. Thats how should trade. Never rigid, adjusting to so many factors as trades unfolded.

If one was rigid is any factors that was not re-representing itself in prices,then one lost the ability and become nonreactive, and that opens one to gambling.(betting)
If one's emotions were disturbed by other events in living, then one yells to the defeated sense and one gambles.

A recap summary on yesterdays activity would read net like this.
Short euro size 25% of venture capital, (capital was 10% of net worth.) @ 1.31893.
At end of session took profits @ 1.31722

Nothing to shout about for lots and lots work, flowing, restrategising and re adjusting to the terrain and the battle that unfolded. Managed captured about 10% of the volatility and about 90% of actively traded trade range.

If you can do this consistently, then you made it.
Trading as a profession.

This represents only the fight sequense of a tight congested range.
When in fast flow situations the mindset aggression changes adapt.
Normally in fast flow situations is all pumping and you have no chance breath. And in those instances profitability wains relative to capital. During those times should capture more volatility ratios and any thing >50% trade range would be fine .
regards
  • #30,849
  • Feb 11, 2012 5:11am Feb 11, 2012 5:11am
Hi There FTI !
First of all i wish you good weekend.
Thanks for taking the time with such detailed Reply.
Ranging MArket is very very dificult it is still out of my understanding .
I am at stage that Like you said in the past That it is prudent to stay with major trend . For me since few days ago when the market with its uncertainity showed Higher High abow previous high this is un uptrend.
So When i am looking for oportunity or impulse i am biased up because my thoughts that never know when someone from the big picture will come in play and will move tha market higher.
I know that maybe nowdays it is not a technical market with all this fundamentals and situation around. So it makes me very hard to understand what is going on.
I am still getting hard time with understandig what is impulse.
For me its a suden move in some direction thats stands out of the pevious candles. And Folow threw of this candle is confirmation that it is an impulse.
BUt as i understand Scout in the market even before the impulse to feel the market.
There is many eshues that i still very uncertain of but i am at learning state so for me is Back to The Reading of the Thread to look for more clues and to relearn
Regards
Michael
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Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #30,850
  • Edited 7:44am Feb 11, 2012 6:51am | Edited 7:44am
Quoting -Michael-
Hi There FTI !
First of all i wish you good weekend.
Thanks for taking the time with such detailed Reply.
Ranging MArket is very very dificult it is still out of my understanding .
I am at stage that Like you said in the past That it is prudent to stay with major trend . For me since few days ago when the market with its uncertainity showed Higher High abow previous high this is un uptrend.
So When i am looking for oportunity or impulse i am biased up because my thoughts that never know when someone from the big picture will come in play and...
Interesting perspective you posted with the daily chart.
The thought that came to my mind is this, see if it has any meaning for you.

" I have average life expectancy of about 69 years according to insurance acturial tables,
which works out to be approximatly 24840 days or 828 months.
If i able make 1 chair a day, i will manage make 24840chairs,
If i able make 1 chair a month, then is 828 chairs,
If i able make 1 chair a year , then is 69 chairs."

depending on my skills which would be my choice of productivity?

I hope you can see my perspsctive to relate it to chart analysis.

regards

The reason why this thought came to mind was because when i was working in banks , I had thoughts about this before. When the idea of the Kondratiev wave cycles was suggested by a renowned strategist at the banks I was thinking to myself, really, is is possible for us manage the bank in these time frames. And when I saw you lines and projections on the chart, something just surfaced the thoughts.
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  • #30,851
  • Edited 7:43am Feb 11, 2012 7:26am | Edited 7:43am
Quoting fti
Interesting perspective you posted with the daily chart.
The thought that came to my mine is this, see if it has any meaning for you.

" I have average life expectancy of about 69 years according to insurance acturial tables,
which works out to be approximatly 24840 days or 828 months.
If i able make 1 chair a day, i will manage make 24840chairs,
If i able make 1 chair a month, then is 828 chairs,
If i able make 1 chair a year , then is 69 chairs."

depending on my skills which would be my choice of productivity?

I hope you can...
so my thoughts are that, the reason you may have difficulty putting what i wrote together for understanding is perhaps your mind frame is not in sync with that of which mine operates. Of course the Kondratiev business cycles chart is extreme example, but believe me we worked on it's fesibility while at banks. Would like see from your perspective, if this is the case.

Mamood did suggest his ability working in 1 minute charts,which i till date still wondering how his coping with it. He says he can be profitable on that time scale. But unfortunately i had not been able get a handle on. But i guess his brokers must really love him for the business.


regards

i keep looking at your chart, and i am feeling that you may had already market perspective for about calander quater forward.
Of course i believe is just technical bias. But wouldn't that make it difficult for you dance the markets? For me mostly , if i get such a bias, my trading gets paralysed.
  • #30,852
  • Feb 11, 2012 7:58am Feb 11, 2012 7:58am
chief how is the health?
  • #30,853
  • Feb 11, 2012 7:59am Feb 11, 2012 7:59am
Quoting cuthbert
chief how is the health?
ok, but eye bleed again. yesterday stop breathing when sleeping. then body jumped, managed breath again.
nothing serious.

regards
  • #30,854
  • Feb 11, 2012 8:10am Feb 11, 2012 8:10am
for long tenure, here are other possibilities. If enough lines drawn, all sorts patterns can emerge.
Bias is fundamentally bearish , technically the up strengths's making all very confused.
Politically is uncertainties , because the thing is falling apart, in bits and pieces, because the core is flawed.

If i have to trade, i not want take any sides. My task is only win pips.
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  • #30,855
  • Feb 11, 2012 8:17am Feb 11, 2012 8:17am
Hello Fti
First of all i know from your post about your health condition and i want to say that i very apriciate your answer but your health is above all. and i beg you under no circumtances you dont need to answer me if you feel tired or not in a health.
The Lines on chart (horizontal) they are of Big Round numbers that i always want to watch closely when price get to them.
The Lines of Trend i Try to be as simple as i can when i have to detect the trend. You once said that "Trends mean different things to diferent people"
and "Within any major trend , there are minor trends".
So the answer to your question maybe the resolution of your current trade window.
Eventualy we lookng at the same 5 minute candles but your frame thiner then mine i Think. So for me it might be 1 chair a month as for you at the same time 30 chairs a month.
I know that when two people look at the same picture they see diferent Things because they came from diferent backgrounds.
Even in the simple thing like the picture i attached two people will see different things.
I googled for Kontratieff he is extrem example 50 years waves is to much.
I Try to make it simple for miself. I always want to know if we in uptrend or downtrend on daily and from there go in and look for impulse.
But even this hard. Because of Broad Congestions and because i know that 70% of the time market dont go anywere make harder to determine trend.
I atached a pic of my frame of mind thats the reasong i think Uptrend now.
Regard
Michael
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Attached Images
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #30,856
  • Feb 11, 2012 8:21am Feb 11, 2012 8:21am
On the Black and white picture you can see two diferent people.
On the colored picture if you look wright you can find 9 people
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #30,857
  • Feb 11, 2012 8:25am Feb 11, 2012 8:25am
Quoting -Michael-
Hello Fti
First of all i know from your post about your health condition and i want to say that i very apriciate your answer but your health is above all. and i beg you under no circumtances you dont need to answer me if you feel tired or not in a health.
The Lines on chart (horizontal) they are of Big Round numbers that i always want to watch closely when price get to them.
The Lines of Trend i Try to be as simple as i can when i have to detect the trend. You once said that "Trends mean different things to diferent people"
and "Within...
Yes, i understand absolutely , what you mean.
What i trying to say is the bias should not dictate the trades.
It can only help strategise.
What i did on friday, i could had done on buying and would probably got close to same results. But captured the pips from the buy perspective.
In fact i didn't expected congestion distribution after a sudden drop from the resignation in greese, but it congested, so that was best i could do make some pips.


regards
  • #30,858
  • Feb 11, 2012 8:25am Feb 11, 2012 8:25am
Quoting fti
ok, but eye bleed again. yesterday stop breathing when sleeping. then body jumped, managed breath again.
nothing serious.
regards
chief you should take it easy. Lots of computer screen isn't good either.

regards
  • #30,859
  • Feb 11, 2012 8:27am Feb 11, 2012 8:27am
Quoting cuthbert
chief you should take it easy. Lots of computer screen isn't good either.

regards
yes noted.
The alternative of staring at the wall , i sort of not like.
Thanks, is noted.

regards
  • #30,860
  • Edited 8:50am Feb 11, 2012 8:29am | Edited 8:50am
Quoting -Michael-
On the Black and white picture you can see two diferent people.
On the colored picture if you look wright you can find 9 people
yes
I am familair with optical illusions and parallax errors.
ya even some pictures i see shapely women when supposed be glass bottles.
regrads

By the way , long cool woman is name of a drink.
Normally in green dress unless is "bitter", then is black dress.

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