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Best High Risk trading in Forex?

  • #21
  • Feb 10, 2012 5:58am Feb 10, 2012 5:58am
Quoting Custos
The win-rate alone doesn't matter, it really doesn't. My systems win close to 20% of the time, and still the equity curve is rising fast.

Again, win-rate alone is irrelevant. If you take profit each time at one pip in profit, while setting a stop loss 100 pips away, you will win 90% of the time and still lose your money on the 10% of time the market doesn't go your way.
You are correct if you are sticking to proper money management by trading low risk because then you have more than enough "chances" in case you have bad luck and those 20% chance winners take a while to win for once.

But I am gonna do high risk.
I don't have a 100 tries on me to hit a winning trade.
I would rather have 80% chance of winning the trade and double my money instead of having 5-10% chance and 10x my money.. Since I have only one shot.. or several shots depending how much I want to bet per trade.
  • #22
  • Feb 10, 2012 6:30am Feb 10, 2012 6:30am
Quoting Proffesor Pi
I lose then I can finally stop my struggle of becoming rich sometime in my life.
Prophetic.

Some may say you actually want to lose.
  • #23
  • Feb 10, 2012 7:46am Feb 10, 2012 7:46am
20 trading days in a month x 12 = 240 trading days

$1000 is 1000% of $100

$1000 / 240 = $4.16 means around 5% a day you need profit to reach 1000% in a year

so

what is method to get 5% a day?
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  • #24
  • Feb 10, 2012 8:26am Feb 10, 2012 8:26am
Quoting ibpo
20 trading days in a month x 12 = 240 trading days

$1000 is 1000% of $100

$1000 / 240 = $4.16 means around 5% a day you need profit to reach 1000% in a year

so

what is method to get 5% a day?
5% a day you would need HIGH RISK.. exactly what this thread is about.
Low risk you can get 5% per MONTH.


@triphop
I really don't care what people think.
And it would be stupid to think that anyway..
If I wanted to lose then why would I be studying for the highest probability of success in a high risk trade/investment/bet?
  • #25
  • Feb 10, 2012 9:18am Feb 10, 2012 9:18am
Quoting Proffesor Pi
@triphop
I really don't care what people think.
Didn't say that you did.
Quoting Proffesor Pi
And it would be stupid to think that anyway..
Maybe. But it's pretty common
Quoting Proffesor Pi
If I wanted to lose then why would I be studying for the highest probability of success in a high risk trade/investment/bet?
You're not! You're walking head first into a trap, full of thousands of people who will strip you of your roll in an instant. Just like Vegas minus the barmaids and booze.
  • #26
  • Feb 10, 2012 9:35am Feb 10, 2012 9:35am
Quoting triphop
You're not! You're walking head first into a trap, full of thousands of people who will strip you of your roll in an instant. Just like Vegas minus the barmaids and booze.
Not true.
They don't win 100% of the time.
They make sure to lose some as well (less than they win) or else there wouldn't be a point in gambling.
So some people who make high risks will win and become rich and others will lose.

I'm not planning on doing High risk past 1000%
After I've reached that goal I'll happily go back to low risk investments.


Seriously, 99% of all people on this forum seems set on making unconstructive comments.
Everything is on this forum is just "CANT CANT CANT". Try and help me or stop posting in my thread.
  • #27
  • Feb 10, 2012 10:23am Feb 10, 2012 10:23am
this is my one day trading result i made 100% within a day but some odd reasons i stopped the research on that system, i was busy with my daily rel trading and work.

i will test this again in real money only not in demo

i mean, its possible

http://i.imgur.com/e3C9Q.png
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  • #28
  • Feb 10, 2012 10:27am Feb 10, 2012 10:27am
Yes, brother you think as I think and you want die extreme.

I have kept this maxime of making 1000s of % (one 1000% wouldnt be anything for us small undercapitalized people) from the beginning, some 800 hours ago.

Now, still losing and working on killing my 24th account, I can still tell you what I learned.

Forget all methods, I appreciate ALL of them, even the oldest ones, and they make sure and fast money, but the way you sound, you are too impatient for logical methods - AS I AM.

My way is this: Be there when there is a 100% sure trade. Now the big guys will step up and call it an illusion. I have had hundreds of trades that were foreseeable like an open book.

My method is this one thing: Let the market convince you that one side is very weak and the contrary side is speeding up exponentially, and get in LATE. (If you can call it that way after 5 1min bars)
If you get in early, you will get caught in ranges. Let the bulls tell you they have slaughtered every last bear or vice versa, and dont ignore what happened in the previous couple of hours, for this was the history of fighting.
Dont ever dare to watch for a potent move if the day is over or if neither side showed extreme strength in the past!


Be lazy, be too late and join them when the struggle is over and one side is omnipotent.


Why I am not profitable yet? Because I got caught within ranges = I was not lazy but hurrying. Wait and wait and wait, and you can grab 20-100 pips with a risk of 1-5 pips several times a week.

Dont listen to anybody, but watch charts until your eyes blur, you will find what is possible. I had the number of 200% on my screen dozens of times - but prepare yourself for a time of intense discipline, brother...

And stop talking about doing this type of trading for a certain period, learn it 100% and it will become your spirit. I found all my "unrealistic" goals to be true and achievable. Listen to the charts, not to this forum. The mindsets counter each other by 180 degree, which is just natural.


Success and Insight
  • #29
  • Feb 10, 2012 10:49am Feb 10, 2012 10:49am
Quoting Brutalpip
Yes, brother you think as I think and you want die extreme.

I have kept this maxime of making 1000s of % (one 1000% wouldnt be anything for us small undercapitalized people) from the beginning, some 800 hours ago.

Now, still losing and working on killing my 24th account, I can still tell you what I learned.

Forget all methods, I appreciate ALL of them, even the oldest ones, and they make sure and fast money, but the way you sound, you are too impatient for logical methods - AS I AM.

My way is this: Be there when there is a 100% sure trade....
I actually don't have anything against systems that are logical.
I like logical systems in fact.

But I think the type of system needed for high risk trading is gonna need as high number as possible in winning trades relative to losing trades.. Since in high risk trading you don't have many chances to wait for a winning trade.

Other than that you could use any system really just increase the lot sizes for it to be counted as high risk.

I suppose I am impatiant in a way but not the way you describe.
I can do the grind but it's simply not worth it for me to work my ass off on a low risk "safe" trading system when I don't have a serious capital to do it with. I don't want to be an old man in the age of 40-50 before I get rich.
  • #30
  • Feb 10, 2012 10:55am Feb 10, 2012 10:55am
Exactly, and from this on my only goal was this:

In order to be able to risk 30% of your total account, you must find an occasion every day, that gives you a perfectly foreseeable trade.

A situation where the balance of power in the markets is 100% obvious.
Oh, and in my opinion no "system" gives you that, only you alone, measuring power of bulls and bears by eyesight.

A happy and fast journey
  • #31
  • Feb 10, 2012 11:04am Feb 10, 2012 11:04am
Quoting Brutalpip
Exactly, and from this on my only goal was this:

In order to be able to risk 30% of your total account, you must find an occasion every day, that gives you a perfectly foreseeable trade.

A situation where the balance of power in the markets is 100% obvious.
Oh, and in my opinion no "system" gives you that, only you alone, measuring power of bulls and bears by eyesight.

A happy and fast journey
Aha, I see what you mean now.
We're on the same page then and I agree.. We need a very high chance of a winning trade.. not nessasarily 100% (there are none) but I would be happy with anything above 70%.

I don't feel confident enough to find my own trade because I'm a fan of statistics and my statistics is only finding 30% - 40% winning trades.
  • #32
  • Feb 10, 2012 12:12pm Feb 10, 2012 12:12pm
Quoting Proffesor Pi
Aha, I see what you mean now.
We're on the same page then and I agree.. We need a very high chance of a winning trade.. not nessasarily 100% (there are none) but I would be happy with anything above 70%.

I don't feel confident enough to find my own trade because I'm a fan of statistics and my statistics is only finding 30% - 40% winning trades.
If you are a fan of stats, then you should know that there is a variance in results.

Even if you have a system that wins 70% of the time, it can on occasion get out of balance by for example having 10 losers or more in a row.
The 70% win-rate is only an average. But within your dataset, if you divided it up into let's say 100 sets, you might have 10 sets that win only 30% of the time, while the vast majority of course wins the 70% of the time.
In the end, this fact alone will hinder you to make it by betting big.
  • #33
  • Feb 10, 2012 12:51pm Feb 10, 2012 12:51pm
Quoting Custos
If you are a fan of stats, then you should know that there is a variance in results.

Even if you have a system that wins 70% of the time, it can on occasion get out of balance by for example having 10 losers or more in a row.
The 70% win-rate is only an average. But within your dataset, if you divided it up into let's say 100 sets, you might have 10 sets that win only 30% of the time, while the vast majority of course wins the 70% of the time.
In the end, this fact alone will hinder you to make it by betting big.
That is just so incorrect way of thinking about stats.
Sure it can happen that you have bad luck and get 10 consecutive losses even if you win ratio is 70%
But each trade you make have 70% chance of success still.

If your way of thinking was true then it wouldn't matter if I I chose a 30% chance of winning trade instead of a 70% chance of winning trade.. Their both as good in short term in your opinion.. Just so wrong.
  • #34
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:01pm Feb 10, 2012 1:01pm
Quoting Proffesor Pi
That is just so incorrect way of thinking about stats.
Sure it can happen that you have bad luck and get 10 consecutive losses even if you win ratio is 70%
But each trade you make have 70% chance of success still.

If your way of thinking was true then it wouldn't matter if I I chose a 30% chance of winning trade instead of a 70% chance of winning trade.. Their both as good in short term in your opinion.. Just so wrong.
How do you infer that? Of course the same is true for a system with 30% win-rate. There is always variance. Never learned about that in university?

All I am saying is that you have to adjust your position size to accomodate for that variance, otherwise you will blow your account when such an event like 10 losers in a row occur.
  • #35
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:11pm Feb 10, 2012 1:11pm
Quoting Proffesor Pi
That is just so incorrect way of thinking about stats.
Sure it can happen that you have bad luck and get 10 consecutive losses even if you win ratio is 70%
But each trade you make have 70% chance of success still.

If your way of thinking was true then it wouldn't matter if I I chose a 30% chance of winning trade instead of a 70% chance of winning trade.. Their both as good in short term in your opinion.. Just so wrong.
Secondly the 30% winning system has of course a different variance than the 70% winning system. So it does matter of course probability-wise. But with both systems, betting big will make you blow your account in the end, once the outliers kick in.
  • #36
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:39pm Feb 10, 2012 1:39pm
Quoting Custos
But with both systems, betting big will make you blow your account in the end, once the outliers kick in.
Yes, Thats why my goal is no more than 1000% with high risk.
But 70% is still high probability of success than 30%.
It's so obvious I don't get how it can be hard to understand.
  • #37
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:41pm Feb 10, 2012 1:41pm
Quoting Proffesor Pi
Yes, Thats why my goal is no more than 1000% with high risk.
well, that is then gambling, not trading.

However what you can do is just leverage up. Get yourself a loan from the bank and use it for trading high risk. In that way you leverage up your money and can get insane returns or a big whole in your pockets and the creditors running after you.
  • #38
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:52pm Feb 10, 2012 1:52pm
Then I have a question.


So many long time traders say:

"If I am really sure and it is an AA+ Setup, i go heavily into that trade. But I wouldn't advise that until you have gained a bunch of experience".

Heavily means a heavy amount of your account.

My question is this, how - if not by observing that the current powers allow only one direction for price to move - can a professional trader allow himself to risk much? I have seen traders on here who had not even ten losers out of the last 100 trades, and their SL was really tight.
  • #39
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:58pm Feb 10, 2012 1:58pm
Quoting Brutalpip
Then I have a question.


So many long time traders say:

"If I am really sure and it is an AA+ Setup, i go heavily into that trade. But I wouldn't advise that until you have gained a bunch of experience".

Heavily means a heavy amount of your account.

My question is this, how - if not by observing that the current powers allow only one direction for price to move - can a professional trader allow himself to risk much? I have seen traders on here who had not even ten losers out of the last 100 trades, and their SL was really tight.
you actually saw them trading? Or did they just post their results? (I wouldn't believe too much what gets posted around here)
  • #40
  • Feb 10, 2012 2:16pm Feb 10, 2012 2:16pm
First to the thread starter:

For a very high win % system, create yourself a contrarian system, going against the weak movements in the last hour of the NY session. The BB bands or just a EMA helps you on the way.


Custos:

They posted their results.
I remember one older guy on here, he had a pretty complicated combination of indies, the core signal was a bounce from the upper Bollinger Band, falling with increasing volatility. I have seen this setup hundreds of times on all TFs. The man showed his results for the last couple of months, the R/R was incredible.


The next thing is, I have seen this statement to be true:
Discretionary trading is the most successful way of trading, for those who get it.

It sounds illogical maybe, but really, a system holds you back and keeps you on a moderate level (moderate returns still can be amazing, if they come every day).

The third thing is, there are few, but there are traders who EXCLUSIVELY scalp micro small movements. They get punched by skeptics, but I have seen it to be correct on my charts. It is about fast momentum and shortlasting reversals. Too bad I dont remember their names on here.

The slow guys used to criticize the danger of the spread in this style, but that wasn't even necessary.

I love statistics, but there seems to be more than one truth, and things that can't be measured.

Sorry for deviating from the topic guys
Greets
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