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  • #381
  • Edited 11:15am Feb 10, 2012 3:02am | Edited 11:15am
Hi Bstay2,

Many thanks fort this excellent post. Good to remind us that "us MMM people" should always have a little MM story in mind (which traders are trapped, what might be the trapped volume, where are pools of liquidity that big boys can absorb for their positioning or profit taking). I occasionally forget that myself.

Please allow me a little rambling about weak and strong WMs. In my opinion, the M on Jan 31st was strong. Not weak at all. Look at the TDI on 15m, 1h, 4h regarding divergence, absolute position and waves completed. The following charts reflect the exact situation at the time of the 15m chart (uncompleted candles on 1h and 4h).

A weak M is good for roughly 50 pips (or 3.75 X ATR on 15m), peak to peak, possible to grab relatively safe 30 - 40 pips there. A strong M should go at least 90 pips (or 6.75 X ATR on 15m).

Some more examples below. Didn't include the result of the moves, you have to rustle up your own charts for that, a little interactivity is good for brain cells. (o;

Good pipping!

31 Jan - Strong M

15m

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13288648351.png

1h

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13288648352.png

4h

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13288648353.png


Quoting bstay2
Let's compare the price actions for EUR/USD on Jan 31st with today Feb 9th and see if we can figure out what "market makers" are thinking. Let's see if such a "weak M" can be identified next time and taken as valid entry.

Jan 31st,
#1 & #2 - market makers "allowed" price to run up 122pips from Monday's LOD into Tuesday's asian session highs, making everybody go bullish and buying or holding longs.

(...)
  • #382
  • Feb 10, 2012 3:06am Feb 10, 2012 3:06am
Waiting for price to move down and pierce the Camarilla L4 level, 1.3226 on EURUSD . Not sure but hopefully we will get a kind of "W"

MM might wanna make a quick EMA 50/200 cross as well ,, looking for buy entry below 1.32260 area anyway.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-02-10_0958.png Size: 76 KB
  • #383
  • Feb 10, 2012 3:10am Feb 10, 2012 3:10am
Morning all.
This is one I'm watching. The 1.618 extension of this long pullback is enough to get us to the daily range high at 1.3369.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: W1.jpg Size: 80 KB
  • #384
  • Feb 10, 2012 3:15am Feb 10, 2012 3:15am
The M on Feb 9th, on the other hand, was quite weak.

9 Feb - Weak M

15m

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13288630521.png

1h

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13288630522.png

4h

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13288630523.png
  • #385
  • Feb 10, 2012 3:17am Feb 10, 2012 3:17am
7 Feb - Extremely weak M

15m

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13288633581.png

1h

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13288633582.png

4h

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13288633583.png
  • #386
  • Edited 3:42am Feb 10, 2012 3:17am | Edited 3:42am
6 Feb - Strong W

15m

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13288635771.png

1h

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13288635772.png

4h

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13288635773.png

There you have it ... my chart posting quota for this and next week is filled, I guess. (o;

One more comment. The RSI / TDI seems to describe the positioning of the BBs (big boys) pretty well, especially when higher time-frames are considered as well. When longer-term TDIs have buckled a couple of times, are near the upper vola bands, show divergence, then it's highly likely that BBs are positioned short and the market is ripe for a downturn. If you have patience to wait for this setup, you can pounce on the next well formed M on the 15m chart. I guess, this is what the MMM girls call "mid week reversal" or a "333 trade", or was it "33 trade". Anywho ...

Trading can be so easy. *sigh*

May I suspect that this is simply too easy and boring for most trigger fingers out there? (o;
  • #387
  • Edited 3:41am Feb 10, 2012 3:22am | Edited 3:41am
Quoting hart3000
Please allow me a little rambling about weak and strong WMs. In my opinion, the M on Jan 31st was strong. Not weak at all. Look at the TDI on 15m, 1h, 4h regarding divergence, absolute position and waves completed.
I was just borrowing your earlier quote about "weak M" into my little story, I don't have this distinction yet in my trading.
Quoting hart3000
My view at that time: Decent chance that the weak M (my reasons why I found it weak above) hits at least naked POC 1.3258. Actually hit even the next NPOC at 1.3238 (which lined up with White).
I saw your examples but how exactly do you determine if the M or W is weak or strong? I'm not seeing what you're seeing despite you labeling several days' examples (Feb 6th is "strong" and Feb 7th "extremely weak"). What should I look for in those pictures?

In today's EUR/USD, the double-railroad tracks between 2:45amEST to 3:30amEST was a valid "W" to me and I took the long at 1.3255 with 20pips stop. Incidentally, pivot M2 and weekly R1 (not shown) were there.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD1.png Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD2.png Size: 31 KB
  • #388
  • Feb 10, 2012 3:32am Feb 10, 2012 3:32am
Quoting bstay2
I was just borrowing your quote about "weak M" into my post, I don't have this distinction yet in my trading.

I saw your examples but how exactly do you determine if the M is weak or strong? I'm not seeing what you're seeing despite you labeling several days' example (Feb 6th is "strong" and Feb 7th "extremely weak"). What should I look for in those pictures?
Was editing quite a lot in my posts above. Apologies. So let me sum up again:

Look at the TDIs at higher time-frames (1h, h4). Did we have a divergence already? What is their absolute position in the 0 ... 100 value range (not only relative to the vola band)? Did they swing a couple of times up (in case of an expected M, BTW, that's a kind of substitute for level counting)?

However, I may not be able to explaini all the subleties. May I stress again that looking at a couple of hundred situations (WM on 15m with consideration of 1h, 4h TDI) brings much clarity. At least did it for me.

Hope this makes it clearer.
  • #389
  • Edited 3:57am Feb 10, 2012 3:44am | Edited 3:57am
A turn up around 1.3254 would be setting up for a nice M15 bearish BAT formation with a completion around 1.3312 - setting up for a fall from the current highs. This would also coincide with YOpen, the 61.8% retrace of yesterday's bar, a market profile peak from Wed. and the 61.8% retrace of the 1st M15 leg up.
  • #390
  • Edited 4:00am Feb 10, 2012 3:45am | Edited 4:00am
Quoting 2face
wie gehts hart300? kannts du deutch?
Jupp. Du also auch ... welcome to the club of straight talkers. (o;
  • #391
  • Feb 10, 2012 4:11am Feb 10, 2012 4:11am
Quoting bstay2
seeing a chart might help us understand the descriptions. do you mean to wait for price to reach 1.3312 to sell short?
Well you could and I might well do that in time but......


I'm referring to the formation of the current W. I'm just saying if it turns up at the 1.3254 area (lots of confluence there too) it will create an accurate bearish BAT formation in the future setting up for a fall from the current highs.

Harmonics are not always pip perfect so it may fall some more and still be valid but if it bounced now then we'd have a nice W plus an accurate harmonic pattern - coincidence?
  • #392
  • Edited 4:39am Feb 10, 2012 4:25am | Edited 4:39am
OK, risking 12 on a long here 1.3252.

EDIT: Survived so far by 0.2 pips! Don't look good though.

EDIT: Had me worried there. I still don't like the fact that we managed to close below the 76.4% fib of the first leg.
  • #393
  • Feb 10, 2012 4:30am Feb 10, 2012 4:30am
Quoting bstay2
In today's EUR/USD, the double-railroad tracks between 2:45amEST to 3:30amEST was a valid "W" to me and I took the long at 1.3255 with 20pips stop. Incidentally, pivot M2 and weekly R1 (not shown) were there.
EUR/USD no good. Consolation prize instead in GBP/USD long from a morning doji star reversal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD1.png Size: 43 KB
  • #394
  • Feb 10, 2012 4:35am Feb 10, 2012 4:35am
Quoting bstay2
EUR/USD no good. Consolation prize instead in GBP/USD long from a morning doji star reversal.
Nice one bstay, keep it up.
  • #395
  • Feb 10, 2012 4:41am Feb 10, 2012 4:41am
Quoting Sutts
OK, risking 12 on a long here 1.3252.

EDIT: Survived so far by 0.2 pips! Don't look good though.

EDIT: Had me worried there. I still don't like the fact that we managed to close below the 76.4% fib of the first leg.

OK, targetting 1.3311 but will probably take it off at 1.33 or thereabouts.
  • #396
  • Edited Feb 11, 2012 3:49am Feb 10, 2012 4:41am | Edited Feb 11, 2012 3:49am
USD/CAD might have a short setup at 5:45amEST with negative divergence in TDI.

AUD/USD looks like a W-pattern ....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD1.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD1.png Size: 38 KB
  • #397
  • Edited 5:26am Feb 10, 2012 5:08am | Edited 5:26am
Quoting bstay2
USD/CAD might have a short setup at 5:45amEST with negative divergence in TDI.

AUD/USD looks like a W-pattern ....
Thanks bstay, I'll keep an eye on them.

USD/CAD looks a bit strong for my liking at the moment. It is testing the H1 range high though. In fact 3 days worth of highs.

I'd feel much happier shorting from 1.0005 since this is the daily projection and also the completion point of an H1 bearish crab.

Trouble is if USD pushes up to this level then my EU long is toast!
  • #398
  • Edited 5:47am Feb 10, 2012 5:32am | Edited 5:47am
Quoting Sutts
OK, risking 12 on a long here 1.3252.

EDIT: Survived so far by 0.2 pips! Don't look good though.

EDIT: Had me worried there. I still don't like the fact that we managed to close below the 76.4% fib of the first leg.

The bogeyman is coming to get me!


Nope, it just wasn't to be this time. On to the next one.......

I might still get in again if UCAD reacts nicely and the W is intact.
  • #399
  • Feb 10, 2012 5:40am Feb 10, 2012 5:40am
Quoting Sutts
Thanks bstay, I'll keep an eye on them.

USD/CAD looks a bit strong for my liking at the moment. It is testing the H1 range high though. In fact 3 days worth of highs.

I'd feel much happier shorting from 1.0005 since this is the daily projection and also the completion point of an H1 bearish crab.

Trouble is if USD pushes up to this level then my EU long is toast!

Right, that's more like it. Lets have a nice M form here on USD/CAD. Nice H1/M15 stoch divergence too.
  • #400
  • Edited 6:14am Feb 10, 2012 5:58am | Edited 6:14am
OK, another chance for a perfect harmonic if we get a bounce at 1.32374. Will be watching carefully.
This time UCAD might be on my side.

No, the current W has had it as far as I'm concerned. UCAD breakout has been the problem.
Will wait for another one to form up.
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