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  • #361
  • Feb 9, 2012 6:51am Feb 9, 2012 6:51am
Quoting bstay2
Good call on the M at 3:43amEST! Both EUR/USD and EUR/JPY broke above yesterday's highs, threw 2 pins at pivot M4 (stop hunts), then created the M-pattern 15mins you alerted us. The second leg of M came close but could not break higher at 4:00amEST. If this topping action is mid-week reversal, could see both EUR pairs targeting M2 and rising 200ema.

(M2 --> M4 for bullish days, M3 --> M1 for bearish days, M4 --> M2 for top reversal, M1 --> M3 for bottom reversal)

ECB rate decision 7:45amEST and conference call 8:30amEST coming up.

Interesting bstay2, what indi do I need to plot these M levels please?
  • #362
  • Edited 7:43am Feb 9, 2012 6:59am | Edited 7:43am
Quoting Sutts
Interesting bstay2, what indi do I need to plot these M levels please?
They are the daily pivot "midpoints". Some teachers taught to use M2-->M4 or M3-->M1 for trading M&W, and we can reduce the number of horizontal lines by removing S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 and just have M0 to M5.

R3 = H+2*(PP-L) or = R2+H-L
M5 = (R2+R3)/2
R2 = PP+R1-S1 or = PP+H-L
M4 = (R1+R2)/2
R1 = (2*PP)-L
M3 = (PP+R1)/2
PP = (H+L+C)/3
M2 = (PP+S1)/2
S1 = (2*PP)-H
M1 = (S1+S2)/2
S2 = PP-R1-S1 or = PP-H+L
M0 = (S2+S3)/2
S3 = L-2*(H-PP) or = S2-H+L
  • #363
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:01am Feb 9, 2012 7:01am
Quoting bstay2
They are the daily pivot "midpoints". Some teachers taught these for use with M&W, and for me I just wanted to reduce the number of horizontal lines so I removed S3 S1 S2 R1 R2 R3 and just have M0-M5.

R3 = H+2*(PP-L)
M5 = (R2+R3)/2
R2 = PP+R1-S1
M4 = (R1+R2)/2
R1 = (2*PP)-L
M3 = (PP+R1)/2
PP = (H+L+C)/3
M2 = (PP+S1)/2
S1 = (2*PP)-H
M1 = (S1+S2)/2
S2 = PP-R1-S1
M0 = (S2+S3)/2
S3 = L-2*(H-PP)

Ahhh, good stuff bstay, thanks.
  • #364
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:25am Feb 9, 2012 7:25am
Quoting Sutts
41.3 pips in the bag and I'm happy. Took it just short of the 50 line for safety.

Could well see some real strength kicking in now.
Nice cleanup there with this weak M! And sorry Sutts, didn't catch your question in time.
  • #365
  • Feb 9, 2012 9:16am Feb 9, 2012 9:16am
Quoting Sutts
Hi hart,

I see you like to use a bit of profiling too. I've got some nice peaks around 1.3270 and 1.3256. The latter one lines up nicely with the 61.8% retrace of this last H1 move up plus the 1.618% profit taking extension of this last M15 leg up. Also great demand at 1.3250. Seems like a good bet for a target but it sure isn't in a hurry to fall.

I'm in a short from 1.3296 with a stop of 14.

How do those MP peaks line up with your view?
Sutts -- Here is my profile as it were at 4:45 am (EST). Short term targets more or less as you mentioned.

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13288002711.png

Interesting points about the pivot confluence. I don't look much at those. Perhaps I should.

My view at that time: Decent chance that the weak M (my reasons why I found it weak above) hits at least naked POC 1.3258. Actually hit even the next NPOC at 1.3238 (which lined up with White).
  • #366
  • Feb 9, 2012 9:46am Feb 9, 2012 9:46am
Quoting hart3000
Sutts -- Here is my profile as it were at 4:45 am (EST). Short term targets more or less as you mentioned.

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13288002711.png

Interesting points about the pivot confluence. I don't look much at those. Perhaps I should.

My view at that time: Decent chance that the weak M (my reasons why I found it weak above) hits at least naked POC 1.3258. Actually hit even the next NPOC at 1.3238 (which lined up with White).
Thanks for getting back to me hart. Glad we're thinking along the same lines. I'm afraid I completely missed the big move up - the reason I exited where I did. Just all happened too soon.

These market makers really make it hard sometimes. I wish I could get inside their heads.
  • #367
  • Feb 9, 2012 12:32pm Feb 9, 2012 12:32pm
Quoting Sutts
Interesting bstay2, what indi do I need to plot these M levels please?

Anyone looking for a refresher on how to use the pivots and where they lie can watch this FREE video. I am not promoting the info more when you get to his home page just watch the FREE video and it helps explain the zones and how price reacts etc.

enjoy!

http://www.forexmentor.com/
  • #368
  • Edited 1:35pm Feb 9, 2012 1:02pm | Edited 1:35pm
Quoting hart3000
My view at that time: Decent chance that the weak M (my reasons why I found it weak above) hits at least naked POC 1.3258. Actually hit even the next NPOC at 1.3238 (which lined up with White).
Quoting Sutts
These market makers really make it hard sometimes. I wish I could get inside their heads.
Let's compare the price actions for EUR/USD on Jan 31st with today Feb 9th and see if we can figure out what "market makers" are thinking. Let's see if such a "weak M" can be identified next time and taken as valid entry.

Jan 31st,
#1 & #2 - market makers "allowed" price to run up 122pips from Monday's LOD into Tuesday's asian session highs, making everybody go bullish and buying or holding longs.
#3 - market makers then pullback sharply to stop hunt the weak longs at 50ema. now everybody decided the bullish move is over and go short.
#4 - oops! wrong. market makers turned around to break out to new highs above 1.3200, stopping out the weak shorts (from #3). now everyone is really convinced that was just the 38.2% retracement into rising 50ema and Daily Pivot PP and the bull trend should continue higher, with higher highs and higher lows.
#5 - wrong again. market makers reached out for the earlier 2 pins railroad tracks above 1.3200, but closed lower to form a 3-bar reversal pattern (evening doji star), trapping the late long buyers.
#4 & #5 - the weak M-pattern and negative divergence were probably too subtle to notice in real-time, and market makers punished everybody by dropping price 166pips to close out the day, after happily stopping out the weak longs and weak shorts and trapping the late buyers at HOD.

Feb 9th,
#1 & #2 - market makers "allowed" price to run up 97pips during asian session, breaking sharply above Wednesday's HOD, making everybody go bullish and buying or holding longs.
#3 - market makers then pullback sharply to stop hunt the weak longs at 50ema. now everybody decided the bullish move is over and go short.
#4 - oops! wrong. market makers turned around to reach out the earlier 2 pins above pivot M4, stopping out the weak shorts (from #3). now everyone is really convinced that was just the 38.2% retracement into rising 50ema and Wednesday's european session congestion top (demand area). the bull trend should continue higher so let's go long for the breakout.
#4 - market makers turned around to close lower, forming a 3-bar reversal pattern (railroad tracks), trapping the late long buyers. the weak M-pattern and negative divergence were probably too subtle to notice in real-time, and market makers punished everybody by dropping price 72pips to pivot M2 and rising 200ema at 7:45amEST for the ECB rate decision. of course, market makers knew everybody would stay out of the major news releases at 7:45amEST & 8:30amEST and reversed price back up another 87pips to end the day, after happily trapping and stopping out the weak longs and weak shorts.

i don't believe in the conspiracy theory (i'm sure the Greece and ECB news played a part) but it's fun to describe the charts this way. as one teacher said it, "market makers" do these tricks over and over again every single day.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD2.png Size: 51 KB
  • #369
  • Feb 9, 2012 1:53pm Feb 9, 2012 1:53pm
Quoting bstay2
Let's compare the price actions for EUR/USD on Jan 31st with today Feb 9th and see if we can figure out what "market makers" are thinking. Let's see if such a "weak M" can be identified next time and taken as valid entry.

Jan 31st,
#1 & #2 - market makers "allowed" price to run up 122pips from Monday's LOD into Tuesday's asian session highs, making everybody go bullish and buying or holding longs.
#3 - market makers then pullback sharply to stop hunt the weak longs at 50ema. now everybody decided the bullish move is over and go short.
#4...

Great stuff bstay, thanks for sharing.
  • #370
  • Feb 9, 2012 1:58pm Feb 9, 2012 1:58pm
Quoting FX-Trader
Anyone looking for a refresher on how to use the pivots and where they lie can watch this FREE video. I am not promoting the info more when you get to his home page just watch the FREE video and it helps explain the zones and how price reacts etc.

enjoy!

http://www.forexmentor.com/

Thanks FX-Trader.
  • #371
  • Feb 9, 2012 2:39pm Feb 9, 2012 2:39pm
Looking at the big picture: Daily Fibo 50 retracement at 1.34200

The H1 pic shows COG-channel with H4 period settings and indicates a overbought area at 1.34000 .

Dont be suprised if price continue to move up during friday....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.png Size: 90 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nnn.png Size: 68 KB
  • #372
  • Feb 9, 2012 4:21pm Feb 9, 2012 4:21pm
Fresh levels for EURUSD: GMT 22:00

Break out up-side Camarilla H4 1.3343

Resistance at Camarilla H3 / Pivot R1 1.3313

Nota Bene: ADR HIGH level at: 1.34230

Look at my previous post = Fibo 50% retracement Daily chart. 1.34200
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-02-09_2318.png Size: 59 KB
  • #373
  • Feb 9, 2012 10:01pm Feb 9, 2012 10:01pm
I attended an online webinar with FXDD's Bob McKeon, Senior Vice President, Markets and Liquidity. He is the boss of the market makers and he talks like a trader (which is his background). He gave us some insights on how the market is made. What I learned.
1. FXDD has 9 liquidity providers. When trading they take the best Bid and best Ask from the 9 at that moment. So they could take from one or two providers, whichever combo gives them the tightest spread.
2. Option Barriers - last week's action around the 1.3200 E/U level was all about the Option Barriers. Billions were at stake with some traders trying to push through and others trying to hold the fort. I'm not sure how we as retail traders get this info in advance because finding out about it a day or week after is interesting but useless. I am going to look at it more.

Here is somebody who seems to know his stuff.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...858#post150858
  • #374
  • Edited 11:00pm Feb 9, 2012 10:15pm | Edited 11:00pm
Quoting CodeMeister
2. Option Barriers - last week's action around the 1.3200 E/U level was all about the Option Barriers. Billions were at stake with some traders trying to push through and others trying to hold the fort. I'm not sure how we as retail traders get this info in advance because finding out about it a day or week after is interesting but useless. I am going to look at it more.
Any real-time forex news service should give you the options expiry information one day ahead, and then alert via "Market Talk" when unusual orders appeared nearing the cut. Below are the numbers for Friday.

http://i.imgur.com/4QfI6.png

from previous day:

http://i.imgur.com/MKS0a.png
  • #375
  • Edited 1:00am Feb 10, 2012 12:15am | Edited 1:00am
I wouldn't label retail brokers such as FXDD as market makers in the MMM sense. They are rather low in the forex tiers and represent only a small fraction of total volume. As you indicated, the movers and shakers are the money centers on tier one which also deal options and forex swaps besides the spot market and thus manage overall risk. FTI presents a clear picture in his thread.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=57639

He credibly claims that he was a tier-1 chief dealer. One thing I often think about is that the chief traders use up to $500 million to rescue a bad position of a junior trader that is $1 million in the dumpers. Now THAT is leverage. (o;

You probably have read this thread already, Codemeister. But may I issue a tip for the newbs out there: The first 200 pages of this thread are a feast for anyone involved in the forex market. First class information, a fun read and inspiration for life, all in one. One of the legendary FF threads. Highly recommended!

Quoting CodeMeister
I attended an online webinar with FXDD's Bob McKeon, Senior Vice President, Markets and Liquidity. He is the boss of the market makers and he talks like a trader (which is his background). He gave us some insights on how the market is made. What I learned.
1. FXDD has 9 liquidity providers. When trading they take the best Bid and best Ask from the 9 at that moment. So they could take from one or two providers, whichever combo gives them the tightest spread.
2. Option Barriers - last week's action around the 1.3200 E/U level was all about the Option...
  • #376
  • Feb 10, 2012 12:18am Feb 10, 2012 12:18am
Here's another interview.
  • #377
  • Feb 10, 2012 12:54am Feb 10, 2012 12:54am
Quoting bstay2
Any real-time forex news service should give you the options expiry information one day ahead, and then alert via "Market Talk" when unusual orders appeared nearing the cut.
Are you live trading any option method?
  • #378
  • Feb 10, 2012 2:33am Feb 10, 2012 2:33am
I thought M/W reversal formations are normally formed 50pips outside ASIAN RANGE.
  • #379
  • Edited 2:55am Feb 10, 2012 2:37am | Edited 2:55am
Quoting 2face
I thought M/W reversal formations are normally formed 50pips outside ASIAN RANGE.
Why not go back several weeks or months on your favorite pair and mark out those M- or W-patterns to see if they are 50pips outside asian range. You will find your answers.

In picture below, can you find any M- or W-pattern? Can you see any pivot reversals from M2-->M4 or M3-->M1? Can you see any reversal formations 25-50pips outside asian range? Can you see any divergence on TDI? Do the same exercise on your favorite pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #380
  • Feb 10, 2012 2:47am Feb 10, 2012 2:47am
Quoting hart3000
Are you live trading any option method?
wie gehts hart300? kannts du deutch?
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