pivot points
AUD/JPY
EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY
NZD/JPY
USD/JPY
CAD/JPY
- #9,122
- Feb 9, 2012 9:12am Feb 9, 2012 9:12am
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,892 Posts
EUR/USD
Dan
- #9,123
- Feb 9, 2012 9:28am Feb 9, 2012 9:28am
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,892 Posts
AUD/USD
Dark grey lines (in the Daily) are standard Fibonacci retracement 1.1079/.9386. The dynamic fib shown is our current working fib.
Dan
- #9,126
- Feb 9, 2012 8:28pm Feb 9, 2012 8:28pm
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,892 Posts
Oh no! 
I had a hard drive failure on my main computer. My other devices are tablets, which means no charting...no trading!
What a bummer!
Admin,Mme...you're doing a great job! With the chart analysis and the trade calls!
Hi Aman!
Dan
- #9,127
- Feb 12, 2012 2:40pm Feb 12, 2012 2:40pm
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,892 Posts
EUR/AUD
The larger timeframes show that EUR/AUD has been in a big downtrend with only small retracements on the way down. The last decent retracement of this large down move was on 11.23.11 with a high of 1.3808. We have currently made it a little passed the bottom of the FibZone (1.2969) in the Monthly candle chart with the price going to 1.2933. We have also found ourselves hitting the 150% Sub-Target of the large downmove in the Daily chart (1.2176), now we are a little above the 1.382% Sub-Target of that Dynamic Fib in the weekly.
Since we have been retraceing this downmove, we want to find out the areas to watch. If we are going to continue up (retracing this downmove) we will look to stay above the 138.2% (1.2327) to continue up to the Daily midpoint of the FibZone (1.2418). If we stay below 1.2418, we look to see if we break 1.2327. If we break 1.2327 we look to the 150% Sub-Target (1.2176). If we break below this we look to the 1.618% Full Target of 1.2026. If we stay above the 1.2327 and break above the Daily FibZone Midline (1.2418) we then look up to 1.2483/1.2554, 1.2655/1.2711, then the 100% Target 1 (1.2813).
Dan
- #9,128
- Feb 12, 2012 3:37pm Feb 12, 2012 3:37pm
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,892 Posts
EUR/CAD
Our larger timeframes shows we have been in a decent downtrend since the 1.7505 high on 12.01.08 (Monthly candle chart). After hitting the 1.2449 low , on 06.01.10 (Monthly candle chart) we had a nice retracement up to the 38.2% before continuing down. At current the Monthly chart shows us we are below the 23.6% with current price at 1.3221. Do note that after hitting the 1.2449 low that the yearly levels have been making higher lows (but not higher highs).
The Daily candle chart shows a Dynamic Fib. We made it to/passed the 138.2% Sub-Target (1.2909) before retracing all the way near the 100% Target 1 (1.3259). Now we want to stay under the 1.3259 point to continue back down to our 138.2% Sub-Target (1.2909). Going below 1.3259 we will find support at 1.3155, 1.3078, 1.3000, 1.2909. If we break above the 1.3259 we have resistance at 1.3268, 1.3313, 1.3376, 1.3458.
Dan
- #9,129
- Feb 13, 2012 7:32am Feb 13, 2012 7:32am
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,892 Posts
AUD/USD
Dan
- #9,130
- Feb 13, 2012 4:24pm Feb 13, 2012 4:24pm
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,892 Posts
EUR/AUD & EUR/CAD updated charts, analysis above.
Dan
- #9,131
- Feb 14, 2012 5:11am Feb 14, 2012 5:11am
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,892 Posts
AUD/USD
Dan
- #9,132
- Feb 14, 2012 5:30am Feb 14, 2012 5:30am
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,892 Posts
EUR/AUD
Dan
- #9,133
- Feb 14, 2012 7:40pm Feb 14, 2012 7:40pm
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,892 Posts
(a little review) With the Dynamic Fib, remember that the 61.8% is our main barrier. If we break above the 61.8% we will look toward Target 1, giving some importance to the 78.6 sub-barrier. Once we hit a target we can expect the currency to take a breather and have some retracement. If we hit target 1, we look to the 61.8% for possible retracement. If we break above Target 1 and find it turn to support, we will look to our Full Target 2. But we do this level by level, we have the 138.2% and 150.0% Sub-Targets on the way. When we hit these, we also have to watch for retracement to the 100%...if there is a break below the 100% we look to the 61.8%.
GOLD
The 240 chart shows the movement that GOLD has had within our Dynamic Fib (1522/1630/1604). We had made it passed the 61.8 (1671), to and passed the 100%(1713). Then we found support at the 100% and advanced a little passed the 138.2% (1754) before retraceing to 100%. Now we want to watch 1713 area, this is our 100%. Will we stay above this area and have a chance to go to the 138.2%(1754) or will we fall below and head toward our 61.8%(1671). The 480 and Daily charts have the larger FibZone levels.
Dan
- #9,134
- Feb 15, 2012 4:43pm Feb 15, 2012 4:43pm
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,892 Posts
EUR/AUD
[font=arial][size=4][color=#000000]The larger timeframes show that EUR/AUD has been in a big downtrend with only small retracements on the way down. The last decent retracement of this large down move was on 11.23.11 with a high of 1.3808. We have currently made it a little passed the bottom of the FibZone (1.2969) in the Monthly candle chart with the price going to 1.2933. We have also found ourselves hitting...
New charts with updated price action
Dan
- #9,135
- Feb 15, 2012 8:46pm Feb 15, 2012 8:46pm
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,892 Posts
Our larger timeframes shows we have been in a decent downtrend since the 1.7505 high on 12.01.08 (Monthly candle chart). After hitting the 1.2449 low , on 06.01.10 (Monthly candle chart) we had a nice retracement up to the 38.2% before continuing down. At current the Monthly chart shows us we are below the 23.6% with current price at 1.3221. Do note that after hitting the 1.2449 low that the yearly...
Here is the old Daily chart from the quoted post above(you can hit the arrow in the quote to be directed back to the old analysis)
EUR/CAD
We stayed under the 1.3259 and have continued down to 1.3019. We now want to stay under 1.3078 to continue to the 138.2% (1.2909) sub-target in the daily. We have 1.2997 support on the way down to 1.2909.
New charts are posted with the updated price action. Over 400 pips between just the EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD.
Go FIBONACCI!
Dan
- #9,136
- Feb 16, 2012 8:37pm Feb 16, 2012 8:37pm
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,892 Posts
EUR/AUD
[font=arial][size=4][color=#000000]The larger timeframes show that EUR/AUD has been in a big downtrend with only small retracements on the way down. The last decent retracement of this large down move was on 11.23.11 with a high of 1.3808. We have currently made it a little passed the bottom of the FibZone (1.2969) in the Monthly candle chart with the price going to 1.2933. We have also found ourselves hitting...
Updated price action, levels still within analysis
Dan
- #9,137
- Feb 16, 2012 9:05pm Feb 16, 2012 9:05pm
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,892 Posts
EUR/CAD
[size=4]Our larger timeframes shows we have been in a decent downtrend since the 1.7505 high on 12.01.08 (Monthly candle chart). After hitting the 1.2449 low , on 06.01.10 (Monthly candle chart) we had a nice retracement up to the 38.2% before continuing down. At current the Monthly chart shows us we are below the 23.6% with current price at 1.3221. Do note that after hitting the 1.2449 low that the yearly levels have been making higher lows (but not...
Charts with updated price action, levels still within initial analysis. 1.3070/78 is our above/below mark.
Dan
- #9,138
- Feb 18, 2012 10:40pm Feb 18, 2012 10:40pm
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,892 Posts
GOLD
We look at GOLD again. the 240 chart we have is narrowed down quite a bit to show a multitude of swings. We have made it as high as 1763, which took out the previous Fibonacci retracment on the downswing with an "A" of 1762. In the 240 chart shown we want to stay above 1706/13 to go up to the sub-target 138.2% (1754), if we fall short of this area we will look again to the 1706/13 areas. If we get price action that breaks below this we look down to 1671, which is the 38.2% retracement (of 1522/1763) and the 61.8% barrier of the dynamic Fib upswing (1522/1630/1604). If we find support at the 1671 we look back to the 23.6% (1706) and the 100% Target 1 (1713).
Looking in the larger Weekly time frame we have got support at 1654, 1608 and 1562 (which is the 61.8% barrier). If we break below the area we look to the 1413 (100%).
240minute Support 1713/06, 1671, 1659, 1646
240minute resistance 1754, 1763/67, 1780 (full target 2)
Dan
- #9,139
- Feb 19, 2012 10:09am Feb 19, 2012 10:09am
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,892 Posts
EUR/USD
The Weekly candle chart shows that we made it down into the targeted FibZone area (1.2623). Since then we had retraced up to 1.3283, this is still below our FibZone midpoint (1.3354). Remember that the midzone is our make or break point, we stay below, we are going back down to the lower FibZone. If we open and stay above the midpoint, we shift our focus to the higher FibZones. The FibZones are Fibonacci caluclations from the previous swing. The swing differs for each candle chart, in the Weekly candle chart the FibZones are quarterly calculations.
We have also got a dynamic fib tool (1.4548/1.3144/1.4247). We are currently at the 78.6% sub-barrier (1.3145). If we stay above this we look to the 61.8% (1.3381), which is near our 1.3354 FibZone midline then 1.3546, 1.3777, 1.4048. If we start swinging lower than the 1.3145 we look to the 100% Target1 (1.2845), 1.2659, 1.2495.
Daily chart shows us above the 1.2977 midpoint, our FibZone target is the shaded area from 1.3282-1.3353. If we fail to break passed this point we look back to the 1.2977 midpoint. If we break above we look to 1.3586. These moves are larger moves and will not be done in a single swing. Going below the 1.2977 we look for it to turn to resistance, then to 1.2887, 1.2775, 1.2672.
Every time frame has it's own swings, targets and trouble areas. Plan your trade in one of the larger timeframes and execute it in the smaller time frames.
240 chart shows a fib retracement 1.3547/1.2625. We have retraced short of the 78.6 (1.3350) with the price hitting 1.3320. Now our price is at 1.3141, below the 61.8% (1.3194). We look for support at the 50% fib (1.3085). Then move level to level. If we break a level, the market will need a little time to breath...wait for the retrace before continuing to the next level. If we fall short of a level we look to the previous level...don't forget that the EURO/USD loves to consildate.
Dan
- #9,140
- Feb 21, 2012 11:42am Feb 21, 2012 11:42am
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,892 Posts
-previous analysis-
02.14.12
(a little review) With the Dynamic Fib, remember that the 61.8% is our main barrier. If we break above the 61.8% we will look toward Target 1, giving some importance to the 78.6 sub-barrier. Once we hit a target we can expect the currency to take a breather and have some retracement. If we hit target 1, we look to the 61.8% for possible retracement. If we break above Target 1 and find it turn to support, we will look to our Full Target 2. But we do this level by level, we have the 138.2% and 150.0% Sub-Targets on the way. When we hit these, we also have to watch for retracement to the 100%...if there is a break below the 100% we look to the 61.8%.
GOLD
The 240 chart shows the movement that GOLD has had within our Dynamic Fib (1522/1630/1604). We had made it passed the 61.8 (1671), to and passed the 100%(1713). Then we found support at the 100% and advanced a little passed the 138.2% (1754) before retraceing to 100%. Now we want to watch 1713 area, this is our 100%. Will we stay above this area and have a chance to go to the 138.2%(1754) or will we fall below and head toward our 61.8%(1671). The 480 and Daily charts have the larger FibZone levels.
Attachment
<----previous chart posted with the 02.14.12 analysis
Attachment
Dan
--------------------------------------------------------------
I look up at the Tv and see the price of GOLD at 1754. Hmmmm, I know that number. I look at my charts and sure enough, it's the 138.2% Sub-Target 1754.
Here's the same chart with updated price action
Gotta love Fibonacci!
Dan