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What do you think about this martingale strategy?

  • #21
  • Feb 8, 2012 11:51am Feb 8, 2012 11:51am
Quoting Jure86
It is just example. As I said lots moltiplication, pips difference and profit are user defined.
The problem with your strategy is double :

1/ If you set a small multiplier, you won't make any profit because of your increasing waves

2/ If you set a higher multiplier (2 is a minimum to recover the previous losses), you will blow your account at the 1st long range period

Not sure which is the best!

I may be missing something but I can't see what.

Please don't take it like a critisism. I am just trying to warn you about a well known phenomenon.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #22
  • Feb 8, 2012 11:58am Feb 8, 2012 11:58am
Awww i remember when i used to be at this stage, the martingale stage thinking it could work.

I can suggest something alot less time consuming and easier than forex if you want to try to make money like this.

Open an account with any casino company, go to the roulette wheel and bet

$1 red, if u lose bet $2 red, if u lose bet $4 red ETCETC until you win, once you win you have a profit, repeat the process again for either black or red.
  • #23
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:06pm Feb 8, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting deankenny21
Open an account with any casino company, go to the roulette wheel and bet

$1 red, if u lose bet $2 red, if u lose bet $4 red ETCETC until you win, once you win you have a profit, repeat the process again for either black or red.
You're right. This is the exact same thing ! I saw in real casino some very long (22) sequences with the same color. You can't follow that kind of series ... casino or trading ...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #24
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:07pm Feb 8, 2012 12:07pm
Quoting deankenny21
Awww i remember when i used to be at this stage, the martingale stage thinking it could work.

I can suggest something alot less time consuming and easier than forex if you want to try to make money like this.

Open an account with any casino company, go to the roulette wheel and bet

$1 red, if u lose bet $2 red, if u lose bet $4 red ETCETC until you win, once you win you have a profit, repeat the process again for either black or red.
Sorry but really can't see connection between roulette and strategy a posted except multiplication.
  • #25
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:09pm Feb 8, 2012 12:09pm
Quoting FerruFx
You're right. This is the exact same thing ! I saw some very long (22) sequences with the same color. You can't follow that kind of series ... casino or trading ...
yes definately, i did it once on a online casino, started with £20

i got up to £500!!!! of course greed took over and i carried on

£1
£2
£4
£8
£16
£32
£64
£128
£256

and thats only 9 spins of the same colour, which happens very REGULARLY.

You would think ah its only £1 a bet, but before u know where you are you have over £250 down on the table. Of course i lost it all on this run.
  • #26
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:09pm Feb 8, 2012 12:09pm
Quoting Jure86
Sorry but really can't see connection between roulette and strategy a posted except multiplication.
This is obvious that you are new in martingale things ... any kind of martingale.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #27
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:11pm Feb 8, 2012 12:11pm
Quoting deankenny21
Of course i lost it all on this run.
Hope this was on demo?
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #28
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:11pm Feb 8, 2012 12:11pm
Quoting Jure86
Sorry but really can't see connection between roulette and strategy a posted except multiplication.
It is clear that you are very new to this game, all i can say is tread carefully, but i suppose the best lesson is experience
  • #29
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:12pm Feb 8, 2012 12:12pm
Quoting FerruFx
Hope this was on demo?
Nope it was real money, i only started with £20 so my actual loss wasnt so bad out my pocket BUT it was still hard to see the pot go from 500 to 0 in a matter of less than 5 mins
  • #30
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:12pm Feb 8, 2012 12:12pm
Quoting FerruFx
The problem with your strategy is double :

1/ If you set a small multiplier, you won't make any profit because of your increasing waves

2/ If you set a higher multiplier (2 is a minimum to recover the previous losses), you will blow your account at the 1st long range period

Not sure which is the best!

I may be missing something but I can't see what.

Please don't take it like a critisism. I am just trying to warn you about a well known phenomenon.
As I said thanks for all comments they really help me and I see what others mean about strategy.
1/ Yes, profit or loss will be small. When there is not many waves (3-5) and then some direction of price (small) profit is here. When there are many waves loss is small. And it think many waves is not very often, so profit is bigger then loss.
2/ Range is not problem here... and 2 is not minimum also.
  • #31
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:16pm Feb 8, 2012 12:16pm
Quoting Jure86
2/ Range is not problem here...
I can assure you that it will be your worst enemy.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #32
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:18pm Feb 8, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting deankenny21
It is clear that you are very new to this game, all i can say is tread carefully, but i suppose the best lesson is experience
Be kind and tell me what other connection/s is/are?
  • #33
  • Edited Feb 9, 2012 2:00am Feb 8, 2012 12:19pm | Edited Feb 9, 2012 2:00am
Quoting FerruFx
I can assure you that it will be your worst enemy.
Not with this strategy. I'm not talking about strategy in this attached link. It is different and price ranging is not problem.
http://www.forex-central.net/AWESOME...e-again%29.pdf
  • #34
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:56pm Feb 8, 2012 12:56pm
Jure,

if your strategy has a strike rate of more than 50%, you are gonna end up in profit anyway (lets not calculate spreads and R:R now for making this simple), so why would you need martingale (or any other "staking plan" for that matter) ?

However, if your strategy has a strike rate of less then 50%, then martingale will NOT save you. It's mathematics, I could work it out further for you but I hope there is no need.

Good luck with your trading!
  • #35
  • Feb 9, 2012 3:45am Feb 9, 2012 3:45am
Quoting Jure86
Not with this strategy. I'm not talking about strategy in this attached link. It is different and price ranging is not problem.
http://www.forex-central.net/AWESOME...e-again%29.pdf
Your risk is exactly the same. You use increasing waves instead but the risk will be the same if you are in a range and orders are filled at top and bottom of each wave. This is the exact same problem for any martingale scheme.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #36
  • Feb 9, 2012 4:01am Feb 9, 2012 4:01am
The only situation where the martingale sequence will end in profit is when the price finally goes in the direction of the last trade. That means when the range is finished and the trend start.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #37
  • Feb 9, 2012 4:12am Feb 9, 2012 4:12am
Quoting FerruFx
The only situation where the martingale sequence will end in profit is when the price finally goes in the direction of the last trade. That means when the range is finished and the trend start.
Agree. But range is not problem here as you said. With range it think when price is between to values for a long time.
  • #38
  • Feb 9, 2012 4:19am Feb 9, 2012 4:19am
Quoting FerruFx
Your risk is exactly the same. You use increasing waves instead but the risk will be the same if you are in a range and orders are filled at top and bottom of each wave. This is the exact same problem for any martingale scheme.
Do you have any idea how to avoid this?
But I think this not happens often and maybe it will go.
  • #39
  • Feb 9, 2012 4:33am Feb 9, 2012 4:33am
Some thaughts...

1) See different pairs history - looks like you hedge on mathematical base/distance - go over charts and see how many trades that pair have had on worst cases of using your strategy.
Wild shot but I´d say you find 8 - 12 on real shitranges (main pairs).
Can you handle them?

2) Set some emergency stop, maybe an EA - 30% of acc, 50% or whatever you feel comortable/reasonable.

3) WITHDRAW constantly. Made 10% profit? Withdraw it until you have made 100% and then trade with "free" money but still withdraw some, as probably system blows every now and then, even if it´s once a year and then it´snice to have more "free" money to start acc again.

4) Think about some (other) trading system and hedge on OPPOSITE signal, not mathematical base - maybe that would lower the risk?
F_ck your analysis, I know exactly where the market will go. To the right.
  • #40
  • Feb 9, 2012 4:36am Feb 9, 2012 4:36am
Quoting Taxi Driver
Some thaughts...

1) See different pairs history - looks like you hedge on mathematical base/distance - go over charts and see how many trades that pair have had on worst cases of using your strategy.
Wild shot but I´d say you find 8 - 12 on real shitranges (main pairs).
Can you handle them?

2) Set some emergency stop, maybe an EA - 30% of acc, 50% or whatever you feel comortable/reasonable.

3) WITHDRAW constantly. Made 10% profit? Withdraw it until you have made 100% and then trade with "free" money but still withdraw some, as probably system...
Many thanks! I'm doing all 4 points you mentioned.
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