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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #30,721
  • Feb 7, 2012 7:00pm Feb 7, 2012 7:00pm
Quoting auxesis
Mike,



To combat this you have to stretch your trade parameters, either in downsizing your initial entry size, or allowing more time to trade ..... in essence playing a much bigger piece of the chart allowing more travel room... depends on where the problem exists, can tell from your posts.

If we are in our comfort zone, trade ups and downs don't effect us, when we are feeling the pain we know somethings up, experience allows us to maintain the brain when under stress, familiarity with the stressful conditions.

The same...

if someone can implement this he would get ahead very fast/...

V
  • #30,722
  • Feb 7, 2012 9:16pm Feb 7, 2012 9:16pm
Quoting auxesis
Mike,

It sounds like your bumping up against your pain threshold in relation to your trading size. that and grouping your position to close together. The downside to this methodology is it's suppose to be without time and pocketbook restraint. The ability to hand off the position to someone else, round the clock monitoring with plenty of money helps, dugh!

However to us mere mortals we have to fight the battles we can, if we hurry into a position, commit our resources too quickly or are not prepared time wise for the market to take it's time...
A good lesson I needed to hear! Funny how they seem to appear inthis thread when you need them most.

I lost a nice piece today by being rigid and impatient. I scaled in way to fast even though I could see the momentum. Finally, I had to exit my positions because I had no more troops to send in.

Nobody's fault but my own. I played to fast and payed the price.

Hopefully, I have learned the lesson this time.

Thanks for your post Auxesis

Good Trading
Mike
  • #30,723
  • Feb 7, 2012 10:49pm Feb 7, 2012 10:49pm
I am resting recovering of stress from human interactions.
In my state is diffcult interacting with humans thats all ego and no substance.
So i must stay away from their ego and retreat to my own santuary.
Medietating, with the creators peace, for his pleasure that he has afforded me. But i think of my friends.

So i still sit think a lot, but peacefully.
And thru some questions asked me in private, i have come to a realisation that many who trades the markrts not under stand the beast that they trying to tame with their speculative endevours.

So here is some insights, that i hope will help you, have a better picture.
This should not hinder your ability dance the market, but only to guide you from making errouneous judgements of your activities.I will not reply any questions , all i ask is that you think.

Remember these things, it will shine light to help you understand the terrains your in when such surfaces.

What is Foreign exchange?

Basically is the medium(money) which countries use to trade with each other for goods and services.

Free markets.

the forex markets had always been the freest of all markets because they trancend into international territories and cannot be manipulated by any groups or interest for long periods of time. The function of free forex markets afford all factors affecting the value of the curriencies to be interacted with each other thru OTC activities. This the reason why averages of its value is important. Mostly markets over shoots its true value of equlibrium when certain factors come into play, but because such factors cannot be overwhelming and persistant for long periods of time, then markets will return to its equilrium in time.

regards
  • #30,724
  • Feb 7, 2012 11:07pm Feb 7, 2012 11:07pm
Inserted Video



V

good to see you chief
  • #30,725
  • Edited Feb 8, 2012 12:29am Feb 7, 2012 11:08pm | Edited Feb 8, 2012 12:29am
Terrain reading.

Manipulation and its adverse repercussions.

The reason why these forex markets should never be manipulated is because it has adverse repercussions. Intervention is last resort activity. And therefore it already signals clearly , where speculation must never direct.


Examples.

Lets read yen.

The markets were in termoil after the tsunami, which created much sufferings in Japan.
However because of their good managing skills, the yen did not sell off. In fact much moved to defend it, because of good fundemental foundations of good management.
Now, that had worked to a disadvantage for japan.
The fiasco in europe had caused an exodus of investables to japan. But this is working toward damaging Japan.
Why?
basically because of overweight.

One must realise that Japan is a country that lacks natural resources.
So a strong yen, affords them ability to import need raw materials to support her manufacturing industrys. So strong yen is a good thing for her.

But one must realise from warnings from their MOF and BOJ that this is now counterproductive. This is because the yen value also dictates their ability sell and export that which she manufactures.

If this situation persist over time, all competative export ability will be lost, which will bring down all the industrys that she has developed over the decades.

To counter this , is seen they intervene to slow down the yen appreciation. You must also realise that they not want create high volatility in opposite direction, because that will inflate their cost of imports and create another godzilla to manage.

Depending on how long the fiasco will persist in europe, they will need stand in defence of the yen value.
Assets that seeks safe harbour in the yen. Is good resource to japan if it adds to the overall productivity of their system. Otherwise is just parasites.

regards
  • #30,726
  • Feb 7, 2012 11:24pm Feb 7, 2012 11:24pm
The situation in the USD

The usd is victim of unscrupulous over valuation. esp of their assets.
Because of this their economy over expanded.

their action of printing, enlarging the money supply,to sustain the overvaluation, had fired back in the way of a bubble in prices of assets, which they trying arresting. And because of the emergence of a drain off due to china emergence had drained off much of the effects of the printing. So now they reverted to rates measure to contain the situation. The impact of suppressed low rates over extended periods will slowly destroy all the savings that they had managed saved over time. As we already seeing the usd is weakening already. But nevertheless due to her being the anchor currency for international trade, is still sustaining the robustness of businesses.

regards
  • #30,727
  • Feb 7, 2012 11:35pm Feb 7, 2012 11:35pm
Example :The situation in the euro zone.

The situation in the eurozone is in a fiasco. This is because of systemic failure due to errors in their foundational structure of alliance.

The situation is that they are trying uphold the value of assets aross the board by sustaining and manipulating by unconventional means sustain value.
But they forget that the alliance is an alliance of countries that may be overvalued, because is pegged to that of the stronger economies. And because of this the weaker ones of the alliance is having much economic termoils. Is already evident from the crys of the PIIGS countries that this over valuation is creating turbulance that they are having difficulty manage. Greece being the 1st to feel the impact of this.

The more thay manipulate and artificially price the euro, the more compounded their problems down the road.It is more important that they address the structural deficiencys bring the alliance back than to continuely sending more resource defend that which is no longer real.

regards
  • #30,728
  • Edited Feb 8, 2012 12:04am Feb 7, 2012 11:42pm | Edited Feb 8, 2012 12:04am
Example, when prices not reflecting the fundementals.

When prices equibrium not reflect real ground fundementals, is manipulation.

During Warring states times, the act of overvaluating value, be they assets or medium of exchange. Then it is a hostile act.

Whne one powerful warload wants annex another. They price all in according to their own valueing, all to their advantage. This either creates suppressed devaluation (ppp)in others or accute inflation that others will slowly need sell off their daughters and household to the dominant warlords in payments.

In truth, this will create war, without which the suppressed warlords will have no way, but to lose all assets and households due to debt.

regards
  • #30,729
  • Edited Feb 8, 2012 12:02am Feb 7, 2012 11:48pm | Edited Feb 8, 2012 12:02am
This a glimpse of the macro picture.
Is unwise speculate in the flow against the forces of real flow when in free markets.
Althought , mighty hands can uphold the sky, but surely, when reality sets in then all need comes back to equlibrium.

So when you dance the markets, you need be aware of the terrains. When you against flow but catching rides of overshoots, try not overstay and expose self to the natural flow. When flow is not to reality, then positions must not over stay. This because of manipulation and overshoots only.

I hope my friends understand what i trying say.

If is difficult, i put it this way.
I will not fight the now flows.
When flow is aligned to true fundementals, then my exposures goes normal.
When flow is no in tune , then my exposures shrinks drastically.
When manipulation by wild volatility, once detected the volatility, I further reduce exposures to cope with the change.


regards
  • #30,730
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:11am Feb 8, 2012 12:11am
Quoting auxesis
Mike,

It sounds like your bumping up against your pain threshold in relation to your trading size. that and grouping your position to close together. The downside to this methodology is it's suppose to be without time and pocketbook restraint. The ability to hand off the position to someone else, round the clock monitoring with plenty of money helps, dugh!

However to us mere mortals we have to fight the battles we can, if we hurry into a position, commit our resources too quickly or are not prepared time wise for the market to take it's time...
Hello Auxesis,

Always thankful for the depth of your trading wisdom which I imagine can only come from years of experience. It is amazing how trading with the best-suited position size can have a positive influence on the mental-emotional outlook as we trade. Also, with Fti's style, it allows for rescues...and like you said, if there is not the unending supply of capital, then making adjustments in other ways is the way to go.

Will take what you said about having adequate time to trade to heart. Also just as important but sometimes downplayed. Having the resource of energy to be alert for the time available is also crucial...mho.

Such good wisdom as always. Thank you.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #30,731
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:13am Feb 8, 2012 12:13am
Oh forgot picture on the panda.

In truth panda is a wildcard.
They are new on the block and their structure is managed pegged.
Moreover their economic state is comprised of a humongous untapped domestic economy with giant pool of natural resources.
Not forgetting their ability tap cheap human resource, which they peremetered well in their grips.
Their engagement form is stealth, so is not possible read any moves that they may want do.

So reading how they would dance is fultile effort. Mostly now they just one large resources block that many would try manipulate to tap for their own hidden agendas.

regards
  • #30,732
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:17am Feb 8, 2012 12:17am
To Fti:

Thank you for taking the time and energy to post the explanations above. Greatly appreciated. What a heart you have to share from your wealth of experience and knowledge! Always will be grateful.

Continue to take care of your health and conserve your strength for worthwhile endeavours .

Take good care,

FX4

P.S. Thanks also for thinking of your friends here at TAF.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #30,733
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:21am Feb 8, 2012 12:21am
as always fti, a good read
  • #30,734
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:44am Feb 8, 2012 12:44am
lost another fight with Aussie......luckily UJ saved my back....book is sound and safe...

V

out for this week...something not right with me....
  • #30,735
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:47am Feb 8, 2012 12:47am
Quoting indianguyinny24
lost another fight...luckily UJ saved my back....book is sound and safe...

V

out for this week...something not right with me....
part of game Vic. As you say book is safe. So, no worries.
  • #30,736
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:51am Feb 8, 2012 12:51am
So glad to hear from you Chief.

And thanks for the teachings.. I will try to internalised them.

Hope to have a good rest and recovery.

Regards
  • #30,737
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:53am Feb 8, 2012 12:53am
Quoting auxesis
Mike,

It sounds like your bumping up against your pain threshold in relation to your trading size. that and grouping your position to close together. The downside to this methodology is it's suppose to be without time and pocketbook restraint. The ability to hand off the position to someone else, round the clock monitoring with plenty of money helps, dugh!

However to us mere mortals we have to fight the battles we can, if we hurry into a position, commit our resources too quickly or are not prepared time wise for the market to take it's time...
Thank you Auxesis. Nice lessons.......my gratitude friend.
  • #30,738
  • Edited 1:30am Feb 8, 2012 1:02am | Edited 1:30am
Oh,
Just that all my friends are aware.

I am very sick and seems my LV thrombos has stabalised , so risk of stroke is becomeing less and less of a possibility. now on redwine, red dates and much natural remedies (strawberries,clots removing..etc) to rebuild my body. Also exercises and minimal blood thining meds to assist the healing. But because i cannot stress and exert i have difficulty doing what i like.

Note the only pain that believes i am in terminal state is the redlion. Long ago when he was friend i mailed him my medication of 4 blood thining meds that was priscribed to keep me alive and for the LV thrombos to stabalise. He was the only one from the medical profession that stated i was terminal. So i highlight to all to be aware of your interaction with him. He seems very shallow on his ability to diagnost properly and lives in very negative mindset. This was brought to my attention by other medical people. In fact now i just realised that this is true and that I should allow such negativity be my achelles heel, than to adjust to my conditions. If i was terminal i would had died 1 year ago. But thanks to good medical practtioners , i still managed survive although not back to 100%, in fact not even to 50% of my self. But i lived due to good doctors and god's will.

Maybe the redlion is trying his utmost , for his diagosntics to become reality.
I not know for sure, but surely he shall be judged for his actions.
I make this info known to you, just to highlight. In all things in life, there are the good and pure hearts, also the evil hidden agendas of the decieved.

regards

who was it that modified the birds story i posted.
Not all who come in your aid and speaks well is your friend.
Thanks, lesson well recieved.
  • #30,739
  • Feb 8, 2012 1:50am Feb 8, 2012 1:50am
Dear Fti,

thanks for keep sharing your knowledge even when your energies and health are not 100%. I wish that you keep recovering your strenghts.

Being the "most free" markets, I guess that makes the FX mkts terrain the most complex to read properly too. Another reason to remove bias and just try to follow.

regards
  • #30,740
  • Edited 3:48am Feb 8, 2012 2:06am | Edited 3:48am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...emic-says.html

more wildcards in the works.
Soon the efsf wil be cb?
Ya ya sure all gains, why not.
Kill the 2 birds, thanks to the stone.
that group not even have banking licence, let alone CB status.
whats role of ECB?
If you ask me , maybe CB for eu should be Buba.
I not like the idea a private company owning europe.
he who owns the debts of a household owns the household.
Damn manipulators like talk positions. Dirtiest market rigging i seen for a long time.
Insider traders
Bware their wealth, flow
I love see the day when all europe sell all the debts to yuan.
and then continue up the bill, devalue and let him have the baby
10 yards is bullshit, try 300 yards.
That will kill all the birds, you need kill.

yaya, how to be leader of all?
need favourables get to the top of committee?
just try la.
Cannot allow them sort out their problems?
oh ya you lose market if they do?
sure, talk is cheap, come show the money. Put it on table!
Soon is bullshit. Walk your talk or take a walk.
I'll SOON make you head of central committee.
I also know how to talk only. Same

I hope one day i get recover enough make same volatility for you RMB which you plan listing for trading in London.
With my mouth.

now rest. cranky again.

regards
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