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  • #401
  • Apr 25, 2006 1:36pm Apr 25, 2006 1:36pm
Quoting fijitrader
It does but over all we've been testing close to a year now both with real money and demo accounts. Since it is an intraday system the sample period is quite good in that any testing of systems similar to the one I developed have hardly had any losing weeks during that period. Many trend following systems cannot be as accurately determined but the system we have developed is such that, though the signals from VP are wrong plenty of the time -- they are also right consistently enough to just keep trading week after week. In the end there is no way to predict the future with either forward or backward testing. They are just ways to forecast probability.

Using EOD data only tells you a small piece of the picture. You don't know whether the high or the low was hit first and you don't know in which trading session these occurred. You also do not see the momentum or how to read the market strength to know whether to close a trade or leave it. These elements become clear in forward testing.
Cannot one run backward testing with high frequency historical data? I assume somewhere one can sign up a trial account and download years of high frenquency intraday data, and then one can test all kinds of trading systems at his leisure. With high frequency intraday data, you will be able to know which trade is first triggered. It is just a thought.

How well do you think VP would have fared to capture the ups and downs of the ultra volatile commodity markets in recent days? Anyone knows?
  • #402
  • Apr 25, 2006 4:41pm Apr 25, 2006 4:41pm
Quoting fijitrader
As for trading in April I've noticed that it is typically the one month where normally profitable systems will cave. At least in Forex trading I've noticed that April is possibly the toughest month with late December following a close second.
Fiji,

Why is this? Can you explain the fundamentals behind this?

J
  • #403
  • Apr 25, 2006 5:17pm Apr 25, 2006 5:17pm
Quoting canoner
Cannot one run backward testing with high frequency historical data? I assume somewhere one can sign up a trial account and download years of high frenquency intraday data, and then one can test all kinds of trading systems at his leisure. With high frequency intraday data, you will be able to know which trade is first triggered. It is just a thought.

How well do you think VP would have fared to capture the ups and downs of the ultra volatile commodity markets in recent days? Anyone knows?
For purely mechanical backtesting you can use intraday data and be able to write code that takes market development into account. I used to put a lot more faith in back testing than I presently do. Of course I used to put a lot more faith in mechancial trading systems than I currently do. I have found that discretion is the one factor that can adapt to changing market conditions better than any purely mechanical system that I know of. However discretion is something that also causes most novice and intermediate traders to lose more money than if they traded mechanically -- but it is the factor that can take an avearge system and make exceptional profits in the hands of a trader who can read the market.

I have not reviewed VP's performance in commodities lately but it has been around for a long time and was developed for the futures markets long before retail forex trading was available. Success with VP depends mostly on the system you apply rather than on the software. The software just keeps spitting out the same information about market activity day after day. How you harness that is the key.

For trading commodities you may want to also check out James16's systems. He does really well in commodities with his price action analysis based systems. Some people have been combining the two.

FT
  • #404
  • Apr 25, 2006 5:51pm Apr 25, 2006 5:51pm
Quoting Janiculum
Fiji,

Why is this? Can you explain the fundamentals behind this?

J
I've never had a great explanation for this but my observations include the following:

After summer break the markets heat up in September through to December since the big fund traders and other primarily northern hemisphere business interests have returned from summer vacation. Business is at it's peak suring this fall period because of Q4 reporting and annual results and tax season all contibute to significant activity so there is a lot of volatility and the largest trends tend to happen here.

During December (esp last two weeks) there is often choppy trendless activity that is hard to trade during the holiday season.

Then come January we have a new year. Q4 numbers are emerging and companies know where they are and and there is a lot of preparation for the coming year, adjusting of positions due to tax issues, tax filing and tax season in general contributes to market activity. Deals made in the fall being implemented. Basically this is a decisive time for business and government. Early year budgets are released and action is taken as a result. This is typically the second most trending period. Both of these busy times are decisive times and you can see it in the markets.

In April this decisiveness wanes. Major anouncements such as budgets and Q4 results are all history. Annual reports from the previous year have mostly all been published and the heat is off. April is spring and the early push in the year has produced its resluts and is losing some momentum as people migrate outdoor more -- preparations for the coming summer begin, golf in the cooler climates is now in full swing, companies know where they are at after the industrious and volatile winter. Easter is usually in April and normally eats up a couple of working days plus April is a 30 day month along with at least two working days lost plus a lot of energy and focus outside of business occurs during these times.

All these factors add up but probably the most important factor is that people expect April to be choppy. It is a transition period to the typically less volatile summer and during transitions there is less decisiveness. There is more of a "wait an see attitude" among the big money in April. Summer is coming and as a whole there is less push for major projects that could mess up the whole summer with 18 hour / 7 day workloads.

FT

PS. Please do not use this post as a springboard towards a fundamental discussion of what happens in April. I thought that stating a very subjective opinion about April doldrums may be a useful post to interpret a comment I'd made about April. However if people want further discussion about this please do not derail this thread with it. Pose the question in the main forum again and you'll get a lot of great answers but don't continue the discussion here.

Thanks!
  • #405
  • Apr 25, 2006 11:15pm Apr 25, 2006 11:15pm
Quoting fijitrader
PS. Please do not use this post as a springboard towards a fundamental discussion of what happens in April. I thought that stating a very subjective opinion about April doldrums may be a useful post to interpret a comment I'd made about April. However if people want further discussion about this please do not derail this thread with it. Pose the question in the main forum again and you'll get a lot of great answers but don't continue the discussion here.

Thanks!

Yes, please, let's keep this thread "on target". There are many great posts here about using VP and I expect more to come. I am currently corresponding with several traders privately about VP usage and I have encouraged these individuals to share their knowledge with the rest of us after some forward testing.

Stay tuned!
  • #406
  • Apr 26, 2006 12:23am Apr 26, 2006 12:23am
Quoting fijitrader
For purely mechanical backtesting you can use intraday data and be able to write code that takes market development into account. I used to put a lot more faith in back testing than I presently do. Of course I used to put a lot more faith in mechancial trading systems than I currently do. I have found that discretion is the one factor that can adapt to changing market conditions better than any purely mechanical system that I know of. However discretion is something that also causes most novice and intermediate traders to lose more money than if they traded mechanically -- but it is the factor that can take an avearge system and make exceptional profits in the hands of a trader who can read the market.

I have not reviewed VP's performance in commodities lately but it has been around for a long time and was developed for the futures markets long before retail forex trading was available. Success with VP depends mostly on the system you apply rather than on the software. The software just keeps spitting out the same information about market activity day after day. How you harness that is the key.

For trading commodities you may want to also check out James16's systems. He does really well in commodities with his price action analysis based systems. Some people have been combining the two.

FT
FT, what discretions you've used led you to more profit? I am sure after years of trading, you must have a set of things that you always keep an eye on and you know some of them have made money for you. Can you formulize those things somehow and add to the trading system? If that is true you can use backward testing to verify which of those discretions are most relevent. Of course, if we are talking about gut feeling, or reading news on the wiretap, no mechanical trading system is gonna be able to incorporate that.

Can you direct me to James16's system? I've never heard of it. What can I find some readings on it?

Thanks.
  • #407
  • Apr 26, 2006 1:51am Apr 26, 2006 1:51am
I realize all don't want reality thus this post will be deleted before it reaches all eyes. So I will hope it doesn't and just talk about my findings on the product and maybe you can help me see the errors of my ways.

I did buy the product. I did study it day and night on every forex currency they offer...for every day that was in their historical data. I did study everything they told me too ... and everything the suggested webinars said to...and everything I could combine from candlesticks to western trading signals...stoch..MACD...you name it. I also tried what VP said to do...You say if has been profitable for you? Back test it. Is it still? ... cover up the graphs day by day and make your decision on your method for years past...in all currencies...do you still get a profit? (to answer that question you need about 3 months...I did) If so how much and what did you do? Seriously...WHAT DID YOU DO? I couldn't find it.

I am not slamming a product because I don't like it. I am slamming a product because I have tried it to no end...and no profit. paper or real. In a previous post I wrote that I would buy the product again if someone could show me how to get anywhere close to the 80% trade record with back testing. Let me rephrase that...if they advertise 80% accuracy...or even in the 70% range for some currencies...don't you believe they should be able to show you how to achieve it...instead of making you figure it out....if it is even possible with their product.

I do elliot wave and have been successful on it...I believe it the best. Now there are MANY other systems to make money on...not just elliotwave....VP just isn't one. If it is then why hasn't ANYONE been able to figure out how to make it work? ... not luck on a trade or 2...backtested with the data over years. I would take a kid with a ruler...there is a system that I won't slam...because it actually works...if VP works then share how. I see people on this forum trying to make it work since 2004!!! ... and still trying to make it work...maybe it just...well .. doesn't.

Money where the mouth is..OK....current price 1.2406

A word from Elliot Wave type analysis and you decide. What does Vantage tell you right now? I say in the EUR/USD we are thrusting up in a 5th wave of a diagonal triangle pattern...topping at 1.2450 - 1.2476....then a selling of the EUR/USD like you have not seen in a very long time...fast and furious....with very distant targets...perhaps in the 1.08-1.10 range at least 1.16 range... targets depend on how it plays out in the down thrust. Worst case I am off by a minor degree and it will choppily climb for another 2 days before the sell off....hmmm any VP predictions? I could be putting my foot in my mouth...but I am confident enough in my system to predict that...why? Because it is USUALLY correct. How much confidence do you have in your product?...enough to change the way you try to use it year after year because it keeps not working.

Not to be so rude but I am not exactly slamming a product I haven't tried and no one on the post slapped up a way to make money off of VP...I was trying to save you the grief I went through for 3 months. They refunded my money without me asking...I only showed them all my spread sheets and asked "can you show me what I am doing wrong?" ... Doesn't that say something to you? I'm very sorry you bought the product but please don't lead others down this path UNTIL you know how to make money on it...which will not happen.

Sorry If I have offended,

D Sarnat

PS: and I am up 500% on the year with my system..including FXCM King of the Mini and trader of the month in January...anyone using VP near that? ... cut your losses and switch to any other system...it doesn't have to be elliot but I would suggest it. I WAS in your place once. I did make the same mistake buying it...but I did switch when I saw it was worthless...since 2004 is a long time to be asking yourself the question "how can I make VP work?" ... please cut your losses...it is such a waste. (however I will say Genesis server was very cool) Any comments?
  • #408
  • Apr 26, 2006 11:57am Apr 26, 2006 11:57am
dsarnat, I'd like to hear what your predictions are for crude oil, gold, metal, and copper for now.
  • #409
  • Apr 26, 2006 1:11pm Apr 26, 2006 1:11pm
dsarnet I tried to email you but cannot get through. Have you an email address which can be used. I would like to ask you some questions but not on this thread as I respect what these members are doing and trying to achieve.

my email address:
[email protected]
  • #410
  • Apr 26, 2006 5:04pm Apr 26, 2006 5:04pm
I debated with myself about responding to this post, but now believe I should because of the general attitude that prevails.

OK..........I make REAL money using VP, you didn't (or couldn't), either way.........so what? Instead of trying "to save" people from this product, why not just state the facts in an objective way and leave it at that? (And leave out the challenges.......what are we in, in grade school?) Everybody trades differently, uses different methods and tools. Some may want to use VP and like it. Others may not. And before anyone makes the investment for this software, they should read everything they can find on this forum and elsewhere and then make an intelligent and informed decision. That's what I did (and I'll say it again), I'm not always pleased with what VP gives me, but overall it's a useful tool for me (and for others too).

And I might respectfully suggest that if you want to promote the Elliot Wave or brag about your accomplishments with it, start another thread devoted to that and leave this thread for objective, constructive and useful VP discussion. Nuff said!


Quoting dsarnat
I realize all don't want reality thus this post will be deleted before it reaches all eyes. So I will hope it doesn't and just talk about my findings on the product and maybe you can help me see the errors of my ways.

I did buy the product. I did study it day and night on every forex currency they offer...for every day that was in their historical data. I did study everything they told me too ... and everything the suggested webinars said to...and everything I could combine from candlesticks to western trading signals...stoch..MACD...you name it. I also tried what VP said to do...You say if has been profitable for you? Back test it. Is it still? ... cover up the graphs day by day and make your decision on your method for years past...in all currencies...do you still get a profit? (to answer that question you need about 3 months...I did) If so how much and what did you do? Seriously...WHAT DID YOU DO? I couldn't find it.

I am not slamming a product because I don't like it. I am slamming a product because I have tried it to no end...and no profit. paper or real. In a previous post I wrote that I would buy the product again if someone could show me how to get anywhere close to the 80% trade record with back testing. Let me rephrase that...if they advertise 80% accuracy...or even in the 70% range for some currencies...don't you believe they should be able to show you how to achieve it...instead of making you figure it out....if it is even possible with their product.

I do elliot wave and have been successful on it...I believe it the best. Now there are MANY other systems to make money on...not just elliotwave....VP just isn't one. If it is then why hasn't ANYONE been able to figure out how to make it work? ... not luck on a trade or 2...backtested with the data over years. I would take a kid with a ruler...there is a system that I won't slam...because it actually works...if VP works then share how. I see people on this forum trying to make it work since 2004!!! ... and still trying to make it work...maybe it just...well .. doesn't.

Money where the mouth is..OK....current price 1.2406

A word from Elliot Wave type analysis and you decide. What does Vantage tell you right now? I say in the EUR/USD we are thrusting up in a 5th wave of a diagonal triangle pattern...topping at 1.2450 - 1.2476....then a selling of the EUR/USD like you have not seen in a very long time...fast and furious....with very distant targets...perhaps in the 1.08-1.10 range at least 1.16 range... targets depend on how it plays out in the down thrust. Worst case I am off by a minor degree and it will choppily climb for another 2 days before the sell off....hmmm any VP predictions? I could be putting my foot in my mouth...but I am confident enough in my system to predict that...why? Because it is USUALLY correct. How much confidence do you have in your product?...enough to change the way you try to use it year after year because it keeps not working.

Not to be so rude but I am not exactly slamming a product I haven't tried and no one on the post slapped up a way to make money off of VP...I was trying to save you the grief I went through for 3 months. They refunded my money without me asking...I only showed them all my spread sheets and asked "can you show me what I am doing wrong?" ... Doesn't that say something to you? I'm very sorry you bought the product but please don't lead others down this path UNTIL you know how to make money on it...which will not happen.

Sorry If I have offended,

D Sarnat

PS: and I am up 500% on the year with my system..including FXCM King of the Mini and trader of the month in January...anyone using VP near that? ... cut your losses and switch to any other system...it doesn't have to be elliot but I would suggest it. I WAS in your place once. I did make the same mistake buying it...but I did switch when I saw it was worthless...since 2004 is a long time to be asking yourself the question "how can I make VP work?" ... please cut your losses...it is such a waste. (however I will say Genesis server was very cool) Any comments?
  • #411
  • Edited 4:26am Apr 27, 2006 12:03am | Edited 4:26am
Hi, everybody
I am attach a file that you can use VP data as day trading system. In my excel file ,there are 4 important area:
1, VP raw data input
2, PTS, PTM difference chart
3, Trade recommendation
4, Next day close prediction( probability & predict close)

On each day close (around EST 7 PM), you need export raw data from VP package, you need OHLC data plus PTS, PTM, PTSDIFF, PTMDIFF, INDEX.
then copy current day OHLC data into data area 4(just one line,raw 34 for April,27 data), then copy 9 days(including today's data) above data into data area 1. Finally, you need manually input data get from raw 24 into next day line on data area 4.
The trade recommandation is only for GBPUSD. You might want to set different stoploss and take profit on different pairs.

enjoy pips!

Rex.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip VPForcast_rex.zip   12 KB | 618 downloads
Chinese Forex Trader from China
  • #412
  • Apr 27, 2006 1:56am Apr 27, 2006 1:56am
Quoting rex
Hi, everybody
I am attach a file that you can use VP data as day trading system. In my excel file ,there are 4 important area:
1, VP raw data input
2, PTS, PTM difference chart
3, Trade recommandation
4, Next day close prediction( probability & predict close)

On each day close (around EST 7 PM), you need export raw data from VP package, you need OHLC data plus PTS, PTM, PTSDIFF, PTMDIFF, INDEX.
then copy current day OHLC data into data area 4(just one line,raw 34 for April,27 data), then copy 9 days(including today's data) above data into data area 1. Finally, you need manually input data get from raw 24 into next day line on data area 4.
The trade recommandation is only for GBPUSD. You might want to set different stoploss and take profit on different pairs.

enjoy pips!

Rex.
Hi Rex

Great work, just a couple of questions.

Have you tested this system, how good were the results? Also, forgive me but I am having some problems understanding how to imput the data, and the interpretation of the spreadsheet. What signals do you follow, I see an initial trade, a stop reversal trade, a buy at, a sell at, a trade signal... Not to be un grateful for your work but I just find it a little complicated.

BeachBum,

WELL SAID!!!

Happy Trading

Cheers
FoggyTrader
  • #413
  • Edited 4:26am Apr 27, 2006 2:26am | Edited 4:26am
Quoting foggyTrader
Hi Rex

Great work, just a couple of questions.

Have you tested this system, how good were the results? Also, forgive me but I am having some problems understanding how to imput the data, and the interpretation of the spreadsheet. What signals do you follow, I see an initial trade, a stop reversal trade, a buy at, a sell at, a trade signal... Not to be un grateful for your work but I just find it a little complicated.

BeachBum,

WELL SAID!!!

Happy Trading

Cheers
FoggyTrader
Hi, FoggyTrader
the result for this "SET & FORGET" are pretty good but not that higher than the CP_Trader's version, Since July, 2003 to Apirl, 2006, it only generate 6000 pips( only initial trade, no stop&reversal trade, bcz lack of programming knowlege on excel I can not backtest stop reversal trade). I am so confidence if we add the stop reversal trade, the result will be much higher than 6000 pips.
For input the data, first of all , you need export VP data into *.hst file, make sure you choose RawASCII and Points Ticks options when you save the .hst file. Then you need excel to open the *.hst file, the following work will be easy.
Trade recommendation part, I took from chapter 5 from VP booklet, just make it easy to read. the stop&reversal trade is myself add to it. Because from the stastic data from 3 years VP data, I found out that if price beyond PHIGH or PLOW 11 pips, then there was 88% price will continue into 23 pips, 64% price will into 45 pips area. That is why I set the stop reversal trade.

enjoy pips!

Rex.
Chinese Forex Trader from China
  • #414
  • Apr 27, 2006 9:33am Apr 27, 2006 9:33am
rex.............


Thanks for sharing your work with us. I will take a close look at your spreadsheet and formulas. The more people share on this forum, the more we ALL benefit! One point of immediate interest, are the figures you post about exceeding p/h and p/l. I have many times observed that if these levels are exceeded, the price will most often continue a great distance. This is especially true if the price action is against what I call the "trade direction" or "trade trend". This for me emphasizes the need to trade "with" the trend so as to avoid these price excursions and insure good trading "with" the trend. Also, it has been my experience (as it was today with the gbp/jpy) that when trading "with" the trend AND managing my trade I can gain more pips when the price continues through my t/p. (The gbp/jpy went 30 pips beyond my t/p, a nice morning for VP trading!)
  • #415
  • Apr 27, 2006 9:44am Apr 27, 2006 9:44am
I want to comment on this while fresh in my mind.

In the past I have written that BIG NEWS DAYS can really impact our "set & forget" system. Today is a good examole of that fact. Because I manage my trades and chose to exit the market around 9am est, I have had a good day.

However, if I HAD to place my order entries and leave the market until 5pm est today, I would have made the choice to STAY OUT today. Or at least made the choice not to trade USD currency pairs. (as it was, I made my profit before 9am on jpy pairs using VP data). There are only a few days each month when this is necessary and a quick check of the FF calender makes it easy to spot these days.

As always, these are just my observations.
  • #416
  • Apr 28, 2006 6:18am Apr 28, 2006 6:18am
Rex has started a new thread for his "S & F" system. I will be following his work closely and hope those of us who use VP will learn from his test. Thank you for being willing to share your efforts with us.

Keep up the good work, Rex!
  • #417
  • Apr 28, 2006 6:39am Apr 28, 2006 6:39am
BB, I read in one of your last posts in the FIGI reports you were using STO 9,7,7 slope for trend info. How well has that worked for you?

And your answer...

Hi Scott......

Go ahead and move this to the "Vantage Point Discussion" thread, no problem.

This Stoch indicator is working well for me. I use it to make a decision about primary trading trend or direction for the next 24 hours after VP predictions are made around 6pm est. I miss some good trades using this indicatoor, but miss more bad trades with it. The net result has been consistently positive on a weekly basis for about 9 weeks now. If the Stoch indicates an uptrend or "buy" signal, I will enter a buy order with the anticipation that the price will decline to the p/l area, trigger the buy and then turn around and head for the p/h. The price does not always drop to the p/l, but when it does, most times the bounce will happen and then head for the p/h area. Of course the opposite is true for a "sell" signal on the Stoch.

HTH..........<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
  • #418
  • Apr 28, 2006 6:43am Apr 28, 2006 6:43am
Quoting smjones
BB, I read in one of your last posts in the FIGI reports you were using STO 9,7,7 slope for trend info. How well has that worked for you?

And your answer...

Hi Scott......

Go ahead and move this to the "Vantage Point Discussion" thread, no problem.

This Stoch indicator is working well for me. I use it to make a decision about primary trading trend or direction for the next 24 hours after VP predictions are made around 6pm est. I miss some good trades using this indicatoor, but miss more bad trades with it. The net result has been consistently positive on a weekly basis for about 9 weeks now. If the Stoch indicates an uptrend or "buy" signal, I will enter a buy order with the anticipation that the price will decline to the p/l area, trigger the buy and then turn around and head for the p/h. The price does not always drop to the p/l, but when it does, most times the bounce will happen and then head for the p/h area. Of course the opposite is true for a "sell" signal on the Stoch.

HTH..........<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
If you're following this discussion, I answered here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...9&postcount=16

but will continue on this thread.
  • #419
  • Apr 28, 2006 2:58pm Apr 28, 2006 2:58pm
Hi Everyone, I am Eric. First time posting and forgive my language limitations.
I am a new trader in FX. I brought VP about 2 months ago.

First, I was about to giving up on using VP till I found this forum 2 days ago. I never trade base on VP's number but as referrence and confirmation. But, this forums actually keep me going with all the data analysis from several traders. Thanks everyone.

Second, for those think VP data is useless or didn't tell you correct info, think again, because there is lot more info than you think on that piece of paper. (I will provide my analysis later in this post, for information purpose only)

Third, I notice alot people has question about P/H and P/L. Remeber, prediction is still a prediction. Intermarket Analysis means "Fundamentals Analysis" and it actually give you a "Technicals Analysis" number figures. If the PH and PL doesn't fall on any of fib lines of other S/R lines then VP is a total fake product. Since fib and S/R are market behaviors of that given time, so does the VP prediction but with more market confirmations. PSMA and PMMA are still averages of PRICE, there is no different than any other moving averages. Does market really care your 50MA, 100MA, 200MA? or anyother averages? Its a indecator of direction of PRICE for that matter. Cut it in short, analyze the number and understand the market in more detail is the goal, and there is no sure thing in trading, otherwise everyone is millionares.

My "2 cents" on Analyzing numbers on VP:
1. Neural Index - nothing but telling you the over all trend of the market. Not nessecery the price movement.
Best use: Confirmation only.
2. P/H & P/L - An Indecator from other market to predict the currency's true value range on given time.
What to look for: I will check the PHD and PLD and understand that "PH is moving up more than PL" which have a sense of market momenton. If PH is moving fast means there is more upward room for PRICE to go and vis varsa.
Best use: understand the PRICE to over all MARKET behavior.
3. PSTMA & PMTMA - Still an average which works exactly like moving average with forcasted price factor in.
What to look for: I will first check PST and PSM history of the perious highest number compare to current number which is weaken or making a new high (wave wise, weaken means losing strength). secondly I will check is the Real SM is going up faster than PSMA, same as MMA. Still, PRICE above means upward trend.

Sorry for the long post, and I am doing analysis on numbers and PRICE movement to the VP numbers, no guarantee on any trade resulte from my post.

All feedbacks are welcome, and that is why I am here too.

Eric
If there is better way, FIND it!! - Eric
  • #420
  • Apr 28, 2006 10:39pm Apr 28, 2006 10:39pm
I think that I have read all the Vantage Point threads and I understand that CRB provides data on holidays when CSI does not. Apart from this, are there any significant differences between the two? I am trying to decide which one is the best or most desirable to use and would appreciate any input you guys have to offer. I am waiting to use the Vantage Point I bought but do not want to get involved with the wrong data provider.

Thank you in advance for your help.

Moonchild AKA Alaskan Pipsicle (a pip frozen to the core)
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