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  • #1,321
  • Feb 4, 2012 1:13pm Feb 4, 2012 1:13pm
Quoting Tyoon
Thanks for that MCFly. Reading through the PDF now

Based on what you guys know about PA and SD; what demand trade would you rather take regarding price arrival and the strength/weakness of the demand level? And why would you not choose the other two? It would be interesting to see different views and ideas.

..
I would take A or B. C would be watched closely as it is a retest of demand.

As for the question concerning the video. I am reasonably sure that the two odds enhancers are 1. Risk Reward. and 2. Retest of old demand that we can't see on the chart.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #1,322
  • Feb 4, 2012 4:22pm Feb 4, 2012 4:22pm
Quoting Tyoon
Thanks for that MCFly. Reading through the PDF now

Based on what you guys know about PA and SD; what demand trade would you rather take regarding price arrival and the strength/weakness of the demand level? And why would you not choose the other two? It would be interesting to see different views and ideas.

..
I cant pick any because I am more accustomed to candlesticks or at worse HLOC charts, even though eventually price is a line chart and only the time periods separate it to create candles. I think in one of his webinars Sam Seiden was showing a hammer, then he changed the timeframe and of course the hammer wasn’t there. And that was his point, timeframes create candles and candle formations. Of course that doesn’t make any sense because he as well marks bodies and wicks, I thought that was weird when I first saw it.


But anyway, I grab this chance from your post to ask my own questions. I think these examples you have marked depend if we are ranging or trending in the higher TF.

Why? Because when you are trending a return to the base (considering this is an extreme level) means that we are now trading against the trend. To borrow from another method, I think Chris Lori says that when he uses fibs he doesn’t like the retrace of the last swing to be over 80-something %, because then this can as easily turn into a reversal. Strong trends usually have their first retracement at around 30% and a level over that, indicate weaker or weakening of the trend. Say if your first retracement of the major swing is over 65% would you still think you are in a strong trend?

Steve Misic in one of his XLTs, said that when we are trending he is trying to buy/sell the RBRs and DBDs respectively (the pullbacks) rather than go for the extremes. Because then you are in a counter trend trade situation and you probably shouldn’t be looking for 1 : 2-3, Risk:Reward from the trade, but handle with caution and in my little experience most are good for a 1:1 but usually fall short for a 1:2. Especially if they have been revisited a couple of times before (short of like the Daily AU now).

How do you enter in these extreme levels when there was a prior strong trend? I think with PA confirmation. Ifmyante in one of his videos he uses the QUASI formation to enter at an extreme after the price has reacted but as close as possible to the reversal start. Yes some fail, but nothing is perfect and as long as you risk is small you can give it a try. Then of course you will fall in the category of how to trail a possible major reversal.


The other scenario is that we are in a ping-pong range area (a bit like EU the past few days). Then it is OK to take trades at the extremes (as I suppose you have in your charts). But still the “arrival” and the entry are important I think.
I usually try to take them after they exit a marked level (as a proof that the level held).

Also I take into account the penetration of the level (how far they went and if the level is depleted now). If they completely penetrate it I am very wary of the development of the move, as even thought they exit the level they can still come back at the first sign of the slightest resistance and kiss it bye-bye.

Another factor in the arrival is if they rally or short of base or even “compress” towards the area of interest. That can give you a clue if there is a reaction if the move is likely to hold for a while or run into some short of resistance straight away.
I think the best way to take these is again with some short of PA confirmation, but you need to be on your toes near that level as price sometimes doesn’t penetrate and gives an early reaction. See the momentum change and buy/sell the pullback (as always).

I think I got carried away a little here, I hope it makes sense and don’t get me wrong but I am still a noob in this. I hope experienced traders take a bite and correct any mistakes I make here, this will only make me understand better and provide answers to my somewhat clouded understanding in the subject. Please excuse my long post. There must have been something in the food… or drink I guess .
  • #1,323
  • Feb 6, 2012 9:56am Feb 6, 2012 9:56am
Hi guys, I'd appreciate some trade management advice from you successful seniors. When trading dd/ss zones, I make sure that the trade has a 1-3 risk-reward ratio from my entry till the next dd or ss zone.

1) Is a 1-1 risk-reward for 2/3 of my position, and then letting 1/3 run.. a viable plan in the long-term?

2) Sometimes, I find myself missing my tp by a few pips.. then price retraces to my entry.. in your experiences, what sort of price bars will make you move your stop to BE or close out @ a loss before it hits your SL?

3) Sometimes, zones get overrun, but I see some of you guys making fantastic entries after it comes back. What kind of price action should I look out for to determine if an already overrun zone will hold, after price comes back into the zone?
  • #1,324
  • Feb 6, 2012 3:15pm Feb 6, 2012 3:15pm
Quoting Tyoon
Thanks for that MCFly. Reading through the PDF now

Based on what you guys know about PA and SD; what demand trade would you rather take regarding price arrival and the strength/weakness of the demand level? And why would you not choose the other two? It would be interesting to see different views and ideas.

..
A is my answer as the price has only been supplied once, conversly this explanins a rejection of the B+C options.
This decision is made only on the information available.
  • #1,325
  • Feb 6, 2012 5:54pm Feb 6, 2012 5:54pm
It has been good reading the responses. Thanks guys.

If I had a choice to eliminate one then 3 would be a sure choice as we have seen it has been tested with a weakish rejection.

I have added other questions. Again it would be interesting to get some thoughts going.

..
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  • #1,326
  • Feb 7, 2012 8:37am Feb 7, 2012 8:37am
I would prefer B. The supply on A&C looks strong and it's wasting no time in returning.

Although a candle chart would be more conclusive.
  • #1,327
  • Feb 7, 2012 9:04am Feb 7, 2012 9:04am
Very interesting discussion you have going there guys. I would take the three of them and scalp them if PA tells me so.

Anyway, here is this week's wisdom (http://www.tradingacademy.com/lessons/20120207/featured_article.htm).
Hello.
  • #1,328
  • Feb 7, 2012 3:42pm Feb 7, 2012 3:42pm
Quoting emene
Very interesting discussion you have going there guys. I would take the three of them and scalp them if PA tells me so.

Anyway, here is this week's wisdom (http://www.tradingacademy.com/lessons/20120207/featured_article.htm).

Informative article, does this not go against the theory of stacked zones (magnets)?

Cheers
  • #1,329
  • Feb 7, 2012 4:14pm Feb 7, 2012 4:14pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
Informative article, does this not go against the theory of stacked zones (magnets)?

Cheers
Interesting, 'stacked zones' and 'magnets' reminds me of WMD's theory of 'price attraction points.' IMO it's a combo of SD and 'gap filling'. I'm really loving using quote marks '' tonight.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1294494770
  • #1,330
  • Feb 7, 2012 4:44pm Feb 7, 2012 4:44pm
Quoting Tyoon
It has been good reading the responses. Thanks guys.

If I had a choice to eliminate one then 3 would be a sure choice as we have seen it has been tested with a weakish rejection.

I have added other questions. Again it would be interesting to get some thoughts going.

..
Answer A: there is an imballance in supply and demand and the sellers are firmly in control.

B: At the present point in time the bears are in control, this goes for A,B+C

C: may be true but lets wait and see. on all 3 trades I would wait and see the short buss has been missed and the question was about demand A is set to resolve the issue quicker than B, and in spite of my last answer more likely to leave the sellers in control, the buyers are not putting up any resistance.
  • #1,331
  • Feb 7, 2012 5:50pm Feb 7, 2012 5:50pm
Quoting neil324
I would prefer B. The supply on A&C looks strong and it's wasting no time in returning.

Although a candle chart would be more conclusive.
that's my thinking. The buyers are being challenged with selling activity close to demand. That kind of PA does not show much demand strength to me. But as mentioned by most responses... it's all down to the PA reaction at demand. Price could easily rally hard north on demand. Only my thoughts anyway.

Quoting qp2
Answer A: there is an imballance in supply and demand and the sellers are firmly in control.

B: At the present point in time the bears are in control, this goes for A,B+C

C: may be true but lets wait and see. on all 3 trades I would wait and see the short buss has been missed and the question was about demand A is set to resolve the issue quicker than B, and in spite of my last answer more likely to leave the sellers in control, the buyers are not putting up any resistance.
IMO B looks the best. When you look at SD zones you want to look at how far price has moved away and for how long price has moved away. If buyers stay in control for a while after the source of demand that shows a lot of imbalance - buyers exceed sellers. On the other hand, if price moves back to demand fast then the balance of buyers and sellers are a bit more balanced. We as SD PA traders want to find the imbalances and trade accordingly. If you are in a ranging market it can be similar to the Auction Market Theory in respects to 'balance' (added picture to show).

Again, because we are SD PA traders, we watch PA around SD to make trades.

As a learner to PIE, I have found this thread has been really constructive to interactive learning, cheers guys

..
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  • #1,332
  • Feb 7, 2012 10:35pm Feb 7, 2012 10:35pm
Been holding this for a couple fo days now......
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  • #1,333
  • Feb 7, 2012 10:37pm Feb 7, 2012 10:37pm
another also guys
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  • #1,334
  • Feb 8, 2012 2:35am Feb 8, 2012 2:35am
Hi guys,
can we say that flag continuation pattern cleared the daily demand?
next target i see is 76.510
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  • #1,335
  • Feb 9, 2012 10:41pm Feb 9, 2012 10:41pm
As a learner to PIE, I have found this thread has been really constructive to interactive learning, cheers guys

..[/quote]
Good questions I screwed up with my first answer and agree with your anaylisis and sentiment about tis thread.

Happy trading to yourself.
  • #1,336
  • Feb 10, 2012 3:51pm Feb 10, 2012 3:51pm
I just want to thanks everyone on price is everything thread.
I am now able to walk.

Thanks again!
  • #1,337
  • Feb 11, 2012 8:08am Feb 11, 2012 8:08am
Quoting KennyZ
closed.. 136p.
!
Assuming we would be back in time (at the right edge of each of my 4 charts) why wouldn't one short at those points?
What is the significance of the entry point of the original chart?
I added a daily chart showing what is to the LEFT and what I see is very vague.
The actual entry was about 130 pips ABOVE the prior dauly peak.
I think that based on past examples a possible entry should have been attempted at that lower level and if there was an attempt, it would have resulted in a loss, unless the SL was about 150 pips which is unlikely (as the end result profit was only 136 pips)
Am I right to assume that trades to the short side may have been taken at the lower levels (and would have resulted in losses or very small profits) or I don't see/understand something.

Any insight would be appreciated.

Gabe
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Every rule has an exception. Except for this one.
  • #1,338
  • Feb 11, 2012 8:36am Feb 11, 2012 8:36am
Zoom in
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  • #1,339
  • Feb 11, 2012 9:02am Feb 11, 2012 9:02am
Quoting mertch
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I did, This is a more than 100 pip zone which as I stated seems too large for stops as the profit was just 136.
Also there were other peaks and poles that could have been shorted.
My question was - why not short elsewhere as well?
When you switch to a 4H chart I asume that your target is larger than the average daily range (unless I am wrong in this assumption)

Gabe
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Every rule has an exception. Except for this one.
  • #1,340
  • Feb 11, 2012 9:09am Feb 11, 2012 9:09am
Quoting Gabe2004
I did, This is a more than 100 pip zone which as I stated seems too large for stops as the profit was just 136.
Also there were other peaks and poles that could have been shorted.
My question was - why not short elsewhere as well?
When you switch to a 4H chart I asume that your target is larger than th average daily range (unless I am wrong in this assumption)

Gabe
Just a newbie theory...
Assume that buy orders and sell orders are about equal, we don't need a lot of sell order to take it back down.
We have to reach some buy orders to get back in.

Sorry for py poor english
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